2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

There's no revisionist history. Garrett was not expected to be a major contributor, but he was going to get his innings one way or another. He has the pedigree for showing more than what he's shown. I wouldn't have predicted it, but I also wouldn't have predicted Rogers to go in the tubes either. There's going to be some variation. As far as performance goes I think things have mostly evened out when it comes to the rotation. Sandy's been better than expected, Garrett better than expected, Rogers much worse, Hernandez worse. Pablo probably as expected. Cabrera and Luzardo maybe better, but they've barely been healthy.

Not really, he wasn't going to get his innings one way or another. At best, he was the 9th SP candidate entering the year (Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Hernandez, Meyer, Cabrera, Poteet) and maybe the top backup lefty for the bullpen (versus Castano). He was an inventory arm you keep around because of options and maybe he'd get 30 IP like Castano has gotten. He's probably double what was realistic, and would 3-4x that if he didn't get hurt and got these final 8-10 last starts or so. Regardless, it doesn't matter as ultimately, he is pretty good and a huge win for them.

So that then goes to what I'm saying - they got to 9th deep on the SP depth chart with Garrett and still have given 13 starts to Castano/bullpen/desperation after that. YUCK. Injuries have accounted for this basically as Meyer/Poteet are out for the year and various longterm injuries to Luzardo/Cabrera/Rogers have come into play too (as well as Hernandez ineffectiveness), but how in the world is it smart to be cavalier to trade Pablo when we can't make a 9 deep SP depth chart for 2023? These guys all have injury concerns so they'll need to go that deep again.

Sandy
Pablo
Rogers
Cabrera
Luzardo
Garrett
?
Neidert --- > Eury
Sixto/Eder/Fulton/McCambley

And what's beyond that is ugly. Also if the answer is sign an innings eater, those guys are going to cost some real bucks $8m+ (Heaney, Wacha, guys like Alex Wood got 2/$25). Yea Jose Quintana signed a $2m deal last year, but this is a real shot in the dark and they'd need solid innings. We're going to bank the season on some $2m flyer works out? That's crazy. Im sure scenarios exist where Pablo is moved is the right idea, but we're talking at least an $8-10m pitcher and likely another $2-3m veteran long reliever to replace him, and that's a net +$5-7m based on his impending arbitration so now something else has to be sacrificed too and another hole filled unless Bruce moves payroll up. How many moving parts do their need to be here? I'd say this SP is "just barely enough" assuming they do fill out the bullpen. There is no surplus to trade for at the MLB level absent minimum 2 veteran signings who can be penciled in for say 175+ IP.

However as said, in 2024:

Sandy
Pablo
Rogers
Cabrera
Luzardo
Meyer
Garrett
Eury
Poteet
Eder
Fulton
Sixto/McCambley/etc.

There is the surplus. We got there. So if they want to move pitching right now, to me it's finding someone who isn't buying Meyer/Eder low or using Eury/Fulton as-is. That's the surplus. It's not the current top 6 who they need all of them for 2023. This basically says to me, Fulton should be the 2nd or 3rd piece for a big bat upgrade with Salas being the top piece. Also, the 2023 draft picks are going to be pretty high picks with the way things are going which is unexpected, so they tac on a year of some "better" picks on paper FWIW. I imagine they do the same thing as this year - college bat and two SP right behind.

Let's see how the season ends. Any SP gets hurt and things become very clear they can't trade anyone. Hopefully they all end healthy and effective and then see from there.

[fish16]

worrying about the back end of the rotation for one year when we have sandy, luzardo, cabrera, rogers, garrett, eury, Meyer, eder, fulton, mccambley in the system and a single long term proven hitter in the lineup seems like the definition of missing the forest through the trees. they have enough. they will have to limit innings next year, sure, but they have more than enough arms to get by given that they have the most important piece in sandy and a ton of other young talent for next year. It's simple, you sign a quality back end of the rotation innings eater and trade pablo for 1-2 young impact hitters. This whole idea that their rotation is in shambles next year without pablo is nonsense, no matter how many times it gets repeated.

[fish16]

also it seems like we can stop with sixto already. he's going on 2 full years missed, just hurt his shoulder again, and looks to be a lost cause at this point. which is an absolute shame because he was unbelievable when healthy.

[fish16]

encouraging early signs for Bleday. 113 WRC+, low babip of .268 but still an OPS of around .750, flashing some power. Already .5 WAR and he's graded out negatively defensively so once he inevitably moves to a corner OF spot he looks to be a capable starter at least with room for more. K rate not crazy at 27% and BB rate is down only about 2% from the very high 16% he had in AAA. he at least looks like he belongs up here which is more than we can say about some of the other guys we've brought up like Lewin.

[fish16]

Given the glut of corner OF guys and the dearth of 1b prospects id like to see them move Jerar to 1b full time.

[lou]

worrying about the back end of the rotation for one year when we have sandy, luzardo, cabrera, rogers, garrett, eury, Meyer, eder, fulton, mccambley in the system and a single long term proven hitter in the lineup seems like the definition of missing the forest through the trees. they have enough. they will have to limit innings next year, sure, but they have more than enough arms to get by given that they have the most important piece in sandy and a ton of other young talent for next year. It's simple, you sign a quality back end of the rotation innings eater and trade pablo for 1-2 young impact hitters. This whole idea that their rotation is in shambles next year without pablo is nonsense, no matter how many times it gets repeated.

It's not the back end of the rotation for 2023, it's "the rotation and staff in general."

I don't know how many times I have to type Cabrera likely maxes out 130 IP or so next year based on arm development and they can't push him too much, Garrett/Luzardo pitch mix arsenals likely max them out around 150 IP as everything is high intensity, and Pablo and Rogers - if they can do it - can probably get to 160-170 land. A best case scenario of Sandy, Cabrera, Luzardo, Garret, and Rogers is probably 810+ innings, meaning you have 630+ innings to go and your only competent RP (being generous here) are Floro, Scott, Okert, and maybe Bleier and Sulser. You also have extremely low depth beyond inventory arms, and then have to pray Eury/Eder/Sixto can throw 100+ in this scenario for sure. So if everything goes right and no one gets hurt, they need 250 IP on top of this and we are counting on Neidert/Nardi/Simpson/Nance/Soriano/King for those innings (as well as trade acquisitions/Rule V/veteran bullpen/etc.) with no Pablo. Or Sixto being a total revelation like Garret this year and throwing 125 himself, etc. "They have more than enough arms to get by" is just a poor take not based in reality, and that's ignoring literally all of Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett/Cabrera have had significant injuries this year and that alter group will be needed for more. This team is going to be under .500 if they are giving Neidert/Nardi/Simpson/Nance/Soriano/King/new club controlled players 300-400+ innings and that's where this is trending absent Pablo as someone is going to get hurt or be ineffective.

So Pablo obviously would eat 150+ of those innings and then you can probably live on paper with that group for the final 100 mop up/desperation innings (especially with signing at least 1 good RHP reliever) and then pray Eury/Eder/Sixto can do more.

Or trade Pablo, and we're probably talking three RHP veterans (or younger relievers acquired, etc.) to get that 250+ innings as you'll need a total replacement here. So do that and Pablo can be moved - let's not count the free agent chickens before they hatch. Let's see them actually sign these guys first as Bruce is cheap and Miami isn't a desired location. As well as Sandy/Rogers/Luzardo/Garrett/Cabrera primed and healthy for opening day. As I mused earlier - something like Rosario/N. Jones/Naylor for Palbo/Cooper/J. Sanchez makes a lot of sense for Cleveland and Miami, with Miami then giving Rosario a 4 year deal similar to Garcia. SS is then fully figured out while we ideally wait for Watson to get his head straight. FG thinks Rosario is solid defensively, statcast doesn't love him, so I think he's probably pretty average, but the bat plays with the 15% K rate and he has untapped power potential. Still only 26. That's the kind of guy I'd bet on. Then go get Laureano/Blackburn/maybe Puk too from Oakland for a Salas or Cappe/Lewis/Fulton headlined package and everything works out. I am not anti-moving Pablo, but they need a *real* plan to do it and just not throw into the wind "sign some innings eater". Something like this would obviously work out with 4 young bats, Blackburn, and maybe Puk, and then move Anderson further for another RHP reliever. Maybe budget for another reliever too on top of this depending if Bruce will go to $85-90m. Frankly, signing E. Diaz on top of this and going for this would be a really good looking team.

Also this notion they have a single long term hitter is incorrect.

C - Fortes/Stallings/Henry <--- Fortes looks good even if recent slump, Stallings great post. They are not giving up on anyone here for 2 years and they shouldn't. Future hope Mack.

1B - Can upgrade here, but Cooper is a good stop-gap and Berry may end up here. This is a luxury upgrade to Cooper, or targeted acquisition

2B - Great. Very good future depth with Lewis/Morisette/SS moves here.

SS - Can absolutely upgrade here as nothing is imminent from farm. Nunez doesn't count until he hits .250.

3B - Will do nothing. Anderson/Berti/Williams at minimum will bridge to Groshans, maybe Berry. Good pipeline with Salas/Cappe growing into this later presumably.

LF - Will do nothing. Bleday/Burdick/Sanchez/Jerar are going to be given next year. As they should be to see if one sticks. Especially Bleday. Needs lower minors depth for sure.

CF - Can absolutely upgrade here. Nothing anywhere in org.

RF - Garcia is signed for 3 more seasons and should be better, as well as the LF clump will take time here if better

DH - Soler is signed and Berry likely replaces him here. Nothing to do.


Yea Jazz is the only star, but they have 2-3 spots (SS and CF, maybe 1B) they can do something here. And the other 10-11 MLB roster spots are fine with short term solid solutions, as well as longterm hope behind them. They have much more than "1" thing going on here. Let's not lose focus regardless of how bad the team is playing. They've been hurt, and these guys are mostly playing pretty well. Let's get rid of the crap and get those 2 bats they need, as well as additional pitching if any MLB SP is sacrificed.

[lou]

also it seems like we can stop with sixto already. he's going on 2 full years missed, just hurt his shoulder again, and looks to be a lost cause at this point. which is an absolute shame because he was unbelievable when healthy.

Right - even more of a reason to keep all the pitching

[lou]

encouraging early signs for Bleday. 113 WRC+, low babip of .268 but still an OPS of around .750, flashing some power. Already .5 WAR and he's graded out negatively defensively so once he inevitably moves to a corner OF spot he looks to be a capable starter at least with room for more. K rate not crazy at 27% and BB rate is down only about 2% from the very high 16% he had in AAA. he at least looks like he belongs up here which is more than we can say about some of the other guys we've brought up like Lewin.

*RIGHT* so stop saying 1 longterm bat when the team is committed to 6-7 position groups moving forward for at least the next 2 seasons.

Bleday is also showing a really positive RHP split as you'd imagine. He should be a capable platoon bat in LF versus RHP rather immediately, and let's hope he figures out the swing. He belongs, even if it's a .230/.330/.450+ RHP split bat. That is very playable. Ideally, Burdick figures it out and that's the LF platoon and Burdick 4th OF/backup CF, etc.

[lou]

Given the glut of corner OF guys and the dearth of 1b prospects id like to see them move Jerar to 1b full time.

So we've gone from 1 longterm bat, to a glut of OF? As said, 6-7 position groups are committed for the next 2 seasons more than likely.

But yes, he should be groomed as a 1B/RF/DH. The Miami Herald link I posted a week ago had the opposing scout saying he is good but will need 1-2 years in the minors. He seems like a 40 man lock, and should be playing in AAA (when the Marlins are healthy that is) every day between the two positions. Basically just alternate him and Johnston every 1-2 days and see if either makes it as a 1B/RF/DH/Bench bat.

[fish16]

So we've gone from 1 longterm bat, to a glut of OF? As said, 6-7 position groups are committed for the next 2 seasons more than likely.

But yes, he should be groomed as a 1B/RF/DH. The Miami Herald link I posted a week ago had the opposing scout saying he is good but will need 1-2 years in the minors. He seems like a 40 man lock, and should be playing in AAA (when the Marlins are healthy that is) every day between the two positions. Basically just alternate him and Johnston every 1-2 days and see if either makes it as a 1B/RF/DH/Bench bat.

Yes, we have a lot of corner outfield pieces, that doesn't make any of them young impact bats at that position, it just means we have options. Those 2 are not mutually exclusive.

[fish16]

*RIGHT* so stop saying 1 longterm bat when the team is committed to 6-7 position groups moving forward for at least the next 2 seasons.

Bleday is also showing a really positive RHP split as you'd imagine. He should be a capable platoon bat in LF versus RHP rather immediately, and let's hope he figures out the swing. He belongs, even if it's a .230/.330/.450+ RHP split bat. That is very playable. Ideally, Burdick figures it out and that's the LF platoon and Burdick 4th OF/backup CF, etc.

being able to write a guy on the roster next to a position next year doesn't make those impact pieces or impactful bats. They don't have impactful bats at 1b, SS, 3b, and all 3 outfield spots are open, and Cooper is who he is, but he's not any kind of impactful legit bat. Ive never denied we don't have options at those positions, I'm saying they arent impactful options. We need a huge influx of hitting talent at every position except 2b and maybe catcher, though even that seems premature with Fortes, though he's definitely earned the benefit of the doubt for next year given the other gaping holes throughout the lineup.

[lou]

Yes, we have a lot of corner outfield pieces, that doesn't make any of them young impact bats at that position, it just means we have options. Those 2 are not mutually exclusive.

The important part is, and the only want one that matters, if they are *not* going to give up on them, so the only areas of upgrade are CF, TBD IF, and maybe a second TBD *IF* they ditch Cooper also.

[lou]

being able to write a guy on the roster next to a position next year doesn't make those impact pieces or impactful bats. They don't have impactful bats at 1b, SS, 3b, and all 3 outfield spots are open, and Cooper is who he is, but he's not any kind of impactful legit bat. Ive never denied we don't have options at those positions, I'm saying they arent impactful options. We need a huge influx of hitting talent at every position except 2b and maybe catcher, though even that seems premature with Fortes, though he's definitely earned the benefit of the doubt for next year given the other gaping holes throughout the lineup.

But it *DOES* indicate what they *CAN* do.

And that's debatable, but they *DONT* need to be impactful in the sense of future Jazzes *IF* the SP is going to be lights out, Jazz is awesome, and the cumulation of all other parts is pretty solid 1-2.5 WAR guys on average. Frankly, all the sum of those parts are probably 1-2.5 WAR average guys which I already showed above.

Absent Bruce signing one of this fancy FA SS or Nimmo, or splurging on E. Diaz, not much else can be done here except leveraging on a 20+ WAR SP staff and hoping the sum of all bat parts gets to another 20.

[fish16]

The important part is, and the only want one that matters, if they are *not* going to give up on them, so the only areas of upgrade are CF, TBD IF, and maybe a second TBD *IF* they ditch Cooper also.

them not doing something to upgrade those positions does not mean that they don't need to do something to upgrade those positions. We all know they arent upgrading them, but that doesn't mean they don't need upgrades and shouldn't be doing everything possible to upgrade those positions. they need impact bats, and they need 3-4 of them. Will they overturn the lineup completely and just keep Jazz and Fortes, no. But that doesn't mean each of those positions doesn't need a long term upgrade. They have no impactful production from 1b, SS, 3b, CF, and realistically RF. The team doing nothing to bring in upgrades does not negate the reality of the need for upgrades at each of those positions. this team has a single impactful hitter and a bunch of mediocre veteran shit, they desperately need multiple young impact hitters, and dealing pablo when they have no intention of re-signing him and have talent behind him in the upper minors is the way to start to do that.

sign a stop gap for a year who can eat some innings and deal pablo. It's that simple, and you already agreed with it in prior posts, for some reason though this is the time though where you wont debate it until you see them actually add a veteran innings eater, when you are consistently going over scenarios where they sign guys like Correa, nimmo, Swanson.

Our lineup talent is not even close to contention. Compared to the best teams in the league we have a minor league lineup. Will there be risk next year with pablo gone for some hitting talent infusion, sure, but they have more than enough pitching left over to compete in the next 3-5 years and simply signing an innings eater for relatively cheap next year gets rid of the entire concern you have for a single year next year. After next year they have more than enough depth moving forward and they already have the most important piece in the best pitcher in baseball this year for very cheap.

[lou]

them not doing something to upgrade those positions does not mean that they don't need to do something to upgrade those positions. We all know they arent upgrading them, but that doesn't mean they don't need upgrades and shouldn't be doing everything possible to upgrade those positions. they need impact bats, and they need 3-4 of them. Will they overturn the lineup completely and just keep Jazz and Fortes, no. But that doesn't mean each of those positions doesn't need a long term upgrade. They have no impactful production from 1b, SS, 3b, CF, and realistically RF. The team doing nothing to bring in upgrades does not negate the reality of the need for upgrades at each of those positions. this team has a single impactful hitter and a bunch of mediocre veteran shit, they desperately need multiple young impact hitters, and dealing pablo when they have no intention of re-signing him and have talent behind him in the upper minors is the way to start to do that.

sign a stop gap for a year who can eat some innings and deal pablo. It's that simple, and you already agreed with it in prior posts, for some reason though this is the time though where you wont debate it until you see them actually add a veteran innings eater, when you are consistently going over scenarios where they sign guys like Correa, nimmo, Swanson.

Our lineup talent is not even close to contention. Compared to the best teams in the league we have a minor league lineup. Will there be risk next year with pablo gone for some hitting talent infusion, sure, but they have more than enough pitching left over to compete in the next 3-5 years and simply signing an innings eater for relatively cheap next year gets rid of the entire concern you have for a single year next year. After next year they have more than enough depth moving forward and they already have the most important piece in the best pitcher in baseball this year for very cheap.

It's more than an innings eater - you deal Pablo the innings you replace are worse so you need multiple arms to make the cumulative impact of the move neutral/better. As stated, the Marlins need to get these guys first (and get through the season healthy) before you just trade away a guy like Pablo. If Cabrera and Luzardo get hurt in September and Pablo was traded already, like fucking *yikes* heading into next year. They have to keep the pitching together until there is a real surplus. Especially when the pitching doesn't lose any value (sorry this is true) to the offseason. This risk you talk about is not worth it for 2023. For 2024 and onwards assuming some solid health rebounds - absolutely. This is why Eury/Eder/Meyer/Sixto/Fulton/Miller can be moved now for appropriate bat upgrades, but it is extremely difficult to do so with Sandy/Pablo/Rogers/Garrett/Luzardo/Cabrera. They need those guys to get through 2023 just as much as they need a bat upgrade and not sure how that can't be seen here. Also I'm well aware those guys are offensive FA pipe dreams for this franchise, nor are the Marlins trading for them. My idea is to build a team that works, and if a FA opportunity arises, that is an additional luxury. Sort of like Correa on a 1 year deal with Minn, etc. but presumably to a lesser extent.

Frankly, I'd figure out how to get Rosario without Pablo in the deal which should be manageable (Anderson, Fulton, and Sanchez?), and then call Arizona and figure out a Eury-Carroll swap and Marlins can kick in a little more if needed (Burdick and Morisette? They have so many lefties). Carroll is perfect if Arizona will deal him. I understand moving Eury is sacrilege, but Carroll is one of the only guys in baseball you do it for and he and Eury are pretty close in value. Rosario and Carroll would be perfect, and would still have Salas/Watson/Cappe/Lewis depth to presumably trade for someone else.