2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I did, and that's a stupid way to project what guys are. guys get figured out in bigger sample sizes. just extrapolating their current production in their current role blindly without putting any context into those projections is a stupid way to project a team. bottom line is they need quality, competent hitters, and they need quite a few of them.

That wasn’t a projection. Reading comprehension please

[lou]

Bender Tommy John.

I’m happy for Stallings that the BABIP regression to mean finally happened

Brutal with Bender

[lou]

Jesus

Exactly why you don’t trade SP when there is no surplus

[fish16]

That wasn’t a projection. Reading comprehension please

An extrapolation based on current production as significantly lesser pieces in smaller sample sizes is dumb and a moronic way to evaluate future performance. Let’s project what burdick will be on a 600 ab extrapolation while we’re at it. It’s a dumb way to view the future, plain and simple.

[fish16]

Exactly why you don’t trade SP when there is no surplus

As opposed to the surplus of hitters we have? We have enough pitching and we have the cy young of the nl, plus Cabrera, luzardo, and eury coming next year along with Garrett and Eder and Meyer eventually coming back. They have quite literally 0 hitting with numerous pitching options, if they can get a long term lineup piece for a guy like Pablo who has two years of team control left who they won’t resign, what exactly is your argument other than dumbass waste of time projections where they go and sign a huge free agent that they obviously won’t sign??

[fish16]

Terrible “closer”, not a terrible bullpen

Synonymous in this case. They have a terrible closer and a bad bullpen. If you’re having trouble closing games, that’s pretty much an indication you have a bad bullpen. It’s like saying we don’t have a 1 but we have 5 3’s or 4’s. It means you have a bad rotation. If you don’t have the most important piece, you have a bad bullpen as a result

[fish16]

40-68 against everyone other than the nationals. A terrible team with 0 hitting

[Namaste]

The Marlins aren’t allowed to play well against the Nationals but everyone else is?

but what’s funnier is…….remember when we were all convinced like 4-5 years ago that fish16 was a paid Marlins employee because of how pro-rebuild Jeter/Sherman he was?

[lou]

An extrapolation based on current production as significantly lesser pieces in smaller sample sizes is dumb and a moronic way to evaluate future performance. Let’s project what burdick will be on a 600 ab extrapolation while we’re at it. It’s a dumb way to view the future, plain and simple.

Again, it wasn't a projection or extrapolating performance. The only thing dumb and moronic going on is your reading comprehension.

[fish16]

The Marlins aren’t allowed to play well against the Nationals but everyone else is?

but what’s funnier is…….remember when we were all convinced like 4-5 years ago that fish16 was a paid Marlins employee because of how pro-rebuild Jeter/Sherman he was?

no, it's just an indication of how terrible this team is. everyone is beating up on the nationals because they suck, I'm just saying their record outside of playing a terrible team not trying to win is nearly 30 games under .500. They have been flat out horrendous against any and all quality opponents from the first game of the year on. And I still was and am pro-rebuild and I gave them a chance. they did the start of the rebuild right and moving those guys was the right move, but they never fulfilled the most necessary part of the rebuild, which is starting to spend when the team was ready to take the next step. I said that all along, and they failed miserably. They did a good job rebuilding the farm, they just refused to spend the money necessary to actually finish the job, which was something I always said was necessary.

[fish16]

Again, it wasn't a projection or extrapolating performance. The only thing dumb and moronic going on is your reading comprehension.

That's exactly what that is. It's extrapolating what their WAR would be given their current performance if you extrapolate it to 600 plate appearances.

[lou]

As opposed to the surplus of hitters we have? We have enough pitching and we have the cy young of the nl, plus Cabrera, luzardo, and eury coming next year along with Garrett and Eder and Meyer eventually coming back. They have quite literally 0 hitting with numerous pitching options, if they can get a long term lineup piece for a guy like Pablo who has two years of team control left who they won’t resign, what exactly is your argument other than dumbass waste of time projections where they go and sign a huge free agent that they obviously won’t sign??

The Marlins do not have enough pitching for 2023 if they trade Pablo. Full stop right here.

I've already mentioned the *major* innings limitations of really every SP besides Sandy, Pablo, and Rogers, and the later may have performance issues where he likely isn't throwing 160 innings. Cabrera is going to max out around 125 innings, and Luzardo/Garret (max effort pitch mix arms) likely don't break 150. Eury likely also doesn't throw much more than 125 IP next year, and half of that if not more is going to be in the minors. Eder and Sixto are huge question marks. Meyer AND Poteet AND Bender are all out for 2023 now also. Hernandez has proven to totally suck. Being cavalier and saying EURY and EDER over and over is not the answer. That's nothing against them either, it's just matter of fact they aren't going to get much from them next year. If those two throw 100 innings at the MLB level that would be incredible. They quite literally are screwed if any of the 6 SP go down for next year and they'll have to sign a starter. As stated, the surplus you desire may occur after 2023 if Meyer/Eder come back healthy, Fulton looks like a # 4 (he's not ready yet), and no one else blows out an arm. That's when they can trade a MLB arm as they'll have an arguable surplus with 8-10 SP candidates. Right now they have 6 and they might have 7 midseason if everything aligns with Eury or Eder.

My position is the team needs a CF, an IF upgrade (likely SS), and since Bender/Poteet are out now and Bass/Pop moved, they need to bring in a veteran right hander (and/or keep Sulser if he is deemed worthy of a 7th inning role).

$80m bucks or so. Everyone here is either great (Sandy, Jazz), good (catcher platoon, all infielders, all remaining SP), acceptable (Named relievers), or have to play them (Garcia and Soler because of the $$$ and the LF to see what they have wiith the kids). This team isn't bad and as-is projects to around 35 WAR (arguably conservatively as well as shown above). If we cherry pick the better season of 2021 versus 2022, you can easily get over 40+. This is without two starting players which is a truly enormous thing to say.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Jazz, Berti
____, Wendle/Rojas
Anderson, Williams
Bleday/Sanchez/Burdick
______
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Cabrera, Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Sulser, ____, _____ (Nance and Neidert likely best two here?)
Scott, Bleier, Okert


I don't have the definitive answer of how to fix this, especially with a low payroll projection, but I do know trading Pablo is not the exclusive answer because he then just creates a 150+ IP hole you then have to fill. You can't seem to wrap your head around that there are other ways to do this besides just Pablo.

If Bruce says $85m for instance, you can ditch Anderson, Sulser, Floro, off that and you have $15m to spend. You just bring up Groshans, the combined trade returns of Anderson, one of Wendle/Rojas, and Floro/Sulser likely get you two right now relievers and your last bullpen spot is likely Sixto/Neidert/Nance/whoever anyways. Four club controlled guys brings you to needing a SS, CF, and RHP reliever and you have $12m bucks. Plus can dip into Salas/Cappe, Fulton, Lewis, and others to trade for a SS, and then do a separate deal for Laureano or whoever which shouldn't hurt that much. And now you have have $5-7m to spend on a right hander. Or hell maybe you just kept Floro, traded Cooper instead for another RHP reliever, and then have $6-8m to spend on a 1 year FA first baseman instead. And if Bruce says $90 or $95 even more room here.

The point is they have plenty of options. The core of the team is very solid. The sky isn't falling. They don't need to be desperate. This is the same thing as last offseason - they need those final 3/4 guys. They failed to spend last year. They failed to dip into the SP depth (while everyone was healthy) to make a trade. What happens now? We'll see, but what I know is, the strength of this team is the 6 SP and while they do need an IF upgrade, they have 8 or the other 9 infielders figured out for sure. That's great to work with. Let's not miss the forest in the trees of sucking. Most Marlins fans are right now. Which goes back to my overall point - the problem is Bruce. No FO can win at $80m. No one.

[lou]

The Marlins aren’t allowed to play well against the Nationals but everyone else is?

but what’s funnier is…….remember when we were all convinced like 4-5 years ago that fish16 was a paid Marlins employee because of how pro-rebuild Jeter/Sherman he was?

Yes. You don't go from 88 wins in April to everything is terrible so fast. It's knee jerk emotions. Frankly, they've had a lot of injuries. They played 6-7 guys against the Dodgers the other day who likely aren't starting next year. That's out of 10. That's insane. No Cooper, Jazz, "IF upgrade which will come," "No CF which will also come", Garcia, Soler, and Hoeing is not a MLB guy. What team is going to compete with that much hurt/out?

Everything is set up for the same offseason. Do they get the last few guys? They have a really solid 21-23 man bunch for $80m bucks next year give or take. Things could be A LOT worse.

[lou]

[QUOTE=fish16;n580039]

no, it's just an indication of how terrible this team is. everyone is beating up on the nationals because they suck, I'm just saying their record outside of playing a terrible team not trying to win is nearly 30 games under .500. They have been flat out horrendous against any and all quality opponents from the first game of the year on. And I still was and am pro-rebuild and I gave them a chance. they did the start of the rebuild right and moving those guys was the right move, but they never fulfilled the most necessary part of the rebuild, which is starting to spend when the team was ready to take the next step. I said that all along, and they failed miserably. They did a good job rebuilding the farm, they just refused to spend the money necessary to actually finish the job, which was something I always said was necessary.[/QUOTE]

Ding ding ding. It was the complaint in March by all of us - but this also doesn't mean that the "good job rebuilding" was a failure. All of that still exists. Nothing has changed. The only real change is honestly Meyer is hurt. That one hurts. But, Garrett is making up for that so it's kind of a wash short term.

They haven't made the plant the flag farm trade yet and they absolutely have the assets (Salas/Cappe, MeyerEder/Fulton, Lewis/Morisette/Nunez, etc. in a package) to do it. That doesn't need money, although Bruce going up anything will be helpful.

If they don't get those 3-4 guys this offseason, they never will. It's really that easy.

[lou]

That's exactly what that is. It's extrapolating what their WAR would be given their current performance if you extrapolate it to 600 plate appearances.

No dingbat, it's suggestive that these guys are performing well when they play. I don't think Fortes is a 6 WAR player, but it is showing he is doing well. Many have been radically hurt so it's difficult to see what's happening for some (like you) versus the W/L. Missing the forest among the trees.

I already did this for you once, but cutting pasting and adjusting that Bender is now also out.


Stallings/Fortes - 2+ WAR <-- Might be underselling if Fortes is this for real. This is a big unknown for me but this is a floor expectation
Cooper - 2 WAR <-- 2022 pace and 2023 is contract year for one shot at maybe a good 2 year deal
Jazz - 4.5+ WAR <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
SS - ____
3B/all IF backups - Anderson/Wendle/Berti/Williams - 4 <-- Well below 2022 pace. Well well well below
Bleday 1.5+ <-- Basically 2022 pace and I think he'll be pretty OK even if never remarkable. BB/HR play enough. Can add Sanchez/Burdick here. I think someone is a low end regular
_____
Garcia 1.5 <-- Should be better, see 2017-2021. This is below all of those rates.
Soler 1.5 <-- Should be better, barely below production in 2022 per PA and a 2019/post-2021 bender can always come
=17+


Sandy 5+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Pablo 2.5+ <-- This is about 2022 pace
Luzardo 2.5+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Cabrera 2+ <-- This is about 2022 pace and this may be underselling if he can throw 140+ innings
Rogers 2+ <-- Should be better, see 2021 which was double this rate. Statcast doesn't hate him. Probably a tweak, physically and mentally
Garret 2+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Floro, Sulser, Scott, Bleier Okert - 2<-- About 2022 pace and EXTREMELY lower than 2021 pace
____
____
=18

=35+ WAR


Tell me what is unreasonable here, frankly it's Garcia/Soler/other OF if anything. Maybe I am optimistic there, but I can't imagine those guys are "so bad" again. Also, Bleday is going to hit 3 HR in a week pretty soon and you'll say he is going to be JD Martinez directly after and is blossoming so account for that also.


This is $80m and there are opportunities to further cut (Anderson $4.75, Cooper $4.25, Floro $3.5, Berti $2.5, Sulser, $1.25, Okert $1, etc.). They can create some money here if they can say, trade infielders for relievers, call up Groshans immediately, etc.


The sky isn't falling like many think, *BUT* they have to get 2 major bat upgrades and unfortunately also figure out one more right handed bullpen arm. Also, everyone can't get hurt at the same time, including Jazz, Luzardo, and Cabrera can't all miss a half a season again especially.