2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I'd point out that the Marlins traded for Chisholm with an eye to him becoming their shortstop, not the second baseman. As good as Chisholm is athletically, I can't rule him out at short ... no way.

Well they have so let's move on. And they are also right. He was terrible at SS in 2021 and has been borderline elite at 2B. Leave him alone. Of all the problems with the organization, Jazz is the 2nd least problem.

Let’s think about the roster next year. WAR totals batters per 600 PA, Sandy per 200+ IP, other SP per 150 SP (as they throw less innings), and RP per 65 IP WAR projections.


Fortes 6.4 / Stallings -1.2 < ----- Borderline great assuming Stallings rebound and Fortes at even 1/3rd this rate
Cooper 2 < ----- Solid
Jazz 6.5, Berti 4.9 < ----- Elite
_______, Wendle 2.6 < ----- Great backup scenario
Anderson 1.8, Williams 3.1 < -----Borderline great assuming some Berti here
Bleday 1.2 < ----- OK with upside
______
Garcia -.4 < ----- No idea what happens here but should be better
Soler 1.2 < ----- OK with upside
_____ 13th man - TBD

Sandy 5.4 < ----- Elite
Pablo 2 < ----- Borderline great if doesn't wear down
Garrett 2.6 < ----- Borderline great if doesn't wear down
Luzardo 3.2 < ----- Borderline great if doesn't wear down
Cabrera 2 < ----- Borderline great if doesn't wear down
Rogers .7 < ----- No idea what happens here
Floro .6 < ----- OK with upside
Scott .3 < ----- OK with upside
Bleier 0 < ----- OK, should be better. ERA is good now also TBH
Okert -.1 < ----- OK, seems like he's better than this
Bender -.3 < ----- No idea what happens here but should be better
_____
_____

This is pretty good.

21 guys, roughly $78m, and I think it is fair to say Fortes/Jazz/Berti/Williams over achieving is likely offset by Stallings/Garcia/Rogers/various pitching under achieving (I think Pablo can do a bit more here, as well as Cabrera/Bender when healthy, etc.). You can easily make the case this team relatively healthy is 35+ WAR baseline. Not enough by any means, but striking distance. This is only trading Rojas above. There is a lot to work with here.

These guys need to stay healthy and the team needs to give them the 2 bat upgrades they failed to get last offseason. And if Pablo is sacrificed for those as in the hypothetical above, they need to sign/acquire another SP.

Maybe the move is something like:

Pablo, Cooper, Sanchez, throw ins -- > Rosario, N. Jones, Naylor, throw ins. These three cover SS, Cooper's replacement, and 13th man. Tons of control here. They could use Sanchez to expand on above and he needs a change of scenery. Cleveland doesn't need these guys with Pablo and a better defensive OF kid.

Salas/Cappe, Lewis, Fulton, throw ins --- > Laureano, Paul Blackburn. Covers CF and Pablo's innings. Blackburn was good until he got hurt. This is assuming he is OK from injury. A lot of control here so Marlins don't lose much here. They don't need these prospects with all the control getting back in both deals.


Rosario, Blackburn, Naylor, and Laureano all playing 2+ WAR paces this year, and Jones has huge upside. That team projection gets around 40 WAR easily and it's pushing.... $82m???

So now let's talk what you all want - a closer. Kick Anderson off that team above and replace with Groshans/whoever and you can afford a $12m closer under $90m. And that gets you to the deadline and how is Eury and Eder looking?


Endless possibilities. The FO and Bruce suck if they can't figure it out.

[fish16]

lou, do you ever take notice that your war projections are consistently ridiculous and wrong?

[fish16]

looking at our lineup and imagining lux in it and thinking about the fact that he plays the same position as Jazz is so fucking dumb. We literally have 1 position locked up long-term and the guy is versatile. He would be our best bat. You find a place for him to play and you take the offense he would provide. It would have been the major league equivalent of the gallen for Jazz trade and it would have been the best trade they could have made, and they fucked it up cause NG is always scared to pull the trigger. he's at 3.2 WAR in just 107 games this year. He and jazz are different players but lux is the more consistent hitter and jazz can't seem to stay healthy.

[lou]

lou, do you ever take notice that your war projections are consistently ridiculous and wrong?

Did you take notice these numbers are factual based on their current production, extrapolated to 600/PA, etc. as stated?

[lou]

looking at our lineup and imagining lux in it and thinking about the fact that he plays the same position as Jazz is so fucking dumb. We literally have 1 position locked up long-term and the guy is versatile. He would be our best bat. You find a place for him to play and you take the offense he would provide. It would have been the major league equivalent of the gallen for Jazz trade and it would have been the best trade they could have made, and they fucked it up cause NG is always scared to pull the trigger. he's at 3.2 WAR in just 107 games this year. He and jazz are different players but lux is the more consistent hitter and jazz can't seem to stay healthy.

Right it's really dumb to trade your best trade asset for a guy whose best position is your only stud bat.

And that's the point - his bat IS NOT AS VALUABLE AT A POSITION NOT AT 2B (and this goes for Jazz also) - so you are NOT getting that 3.2 WAR at 1B/LF

This is insane.

[lou]

Did you take notice these numbers are factual based on their current production, extrapolated to 600/PA, etc. as stated?

And for the record so you can nitpick later, I think this is a reasonable projection for next year:


Stallings/Fortes - 2+ WAR <-- Might be underselling if Fortes is this for real. This is a big unknown for me but this is a floor expectation
Cooper - 2 WAR <-- 2022 pace and 2023 is contract year for one shot at maybe a good 2 year deal
Jazz - 4.5+ WAR <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
SS - ____
3B/all IF backups - Anderson/Wendle/Berti/Williams - 4 <-- Well below 2022 pace. Well well well below
Bleday 1.5+ <-- Basically 2022 pace and I think he'll be pretty OK even if never remarkable. BB/HR play enough
_____
Garcia 1.5 <-- Should be better, see 2017-2021
Soler 1.5 <-- Should be better, barely below production in 2022 per PA and a 2019/post-2021 bender can always come
=17+


Sandy 5+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Pablo 2.5+ <-- This is about 2022 pace
Luzardo 2.5+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Cabrera 2+ <-- This is about 2022 pace and this may be underselling if he can throw 140+ innings
Rogers 2+ <-- Should be better, see 2021 which was double this rate. Statcast doesn't hate him. Probably a tweak, physically and mentally
Garret 2+ <-- This is lower than 2022 pace
Floro, Bender, Scott, Bleier Okert - 2 <-- About 2022 pace and EXTREMELY lower than 2021 pace (5+ seriously)
____
____
=18

35+ WAR upside + new SS + new CF + new RHP reliever + new RHP reliever. No major leaps of faith here. 35 WAR is not a remarkable projection. Even if this is off on a few, it may equally be off positively in the other direction. See how Fortes/Jazz/infielders/SP are very conservative here.

To note, if they get 2022 Fortes/Jazz/Berti/Sandy/Luzardo/Garrett and 2021 Garcia/Rogers/Soler(post)/bullpen - > this is a monstrous team on paper. That could add 10 WAR to the above making an out of this world projection. This is your - everything must go right and 88 win team you wanted preseason.

Also that's still without a SS and CF. And Eury.

Which is why you find another 5+ WAR from SS/CF/RHP relievers and now you are building a contending floor, and there is upside if it all clicks now.

The above is roughly $78m, only Rojas is traded off this team. Could swap him for Wendle and move it to $77m also.

The sky is falling mentality is ridiculous unless we're expecting these guys to have more cumulative injuries/material set backs all at the same time. Chances are, there is widespread regression to the mean and 5 regulars/SP are not injured at the same time for literally the entire season.

But yes, who is the SS and CF? These are questions Bruce must answer with payroll and likely some of Salas/Cappe/Meyer/Eder and other 8-15 range prospects must be sacrificed. But that's fine.

[Namaste]

Bender Tommy John.

I’m happy for Stallings that the BABIP regression to mean finally happened

[fish16]

Right it's really dumb to trade your best trade asset for a guy whose best position is your only stud bat.

And that's the point - his bat IS NOT AS VALUABLE AT A POSITION NOT AT 2B (and this goes for Jazz also) - so you are NOT getting that 3.2 WAR at 1B/LF

This is insane.

his bat will play anywhere. we quite literally have a single long term position player right now. he has played SS, 2b, and every OF position in his career and he has a 3.2 WAR this year with a .300 average and an .810 OPS as a 24 year old. That is a valuable bat no matter the position, and we arent in a position to nitpick where guys play because, again, we have 7 position player openings long term. we need quality hitters, and he is that and more. he was the number 1 prospect in baseball and has been great at the major league level. you figure out what position he plays after the fact, you get the great hitter on a team with none of them first.

[fish16]

Did you take notice these numbers are factual based on their current production, extrapolated to 600/PA, etc. as stated?

I did, and that's a stupid way to project what guys are. guys get figured out in bigger sample sizes. just extrapolating their current production in their current role blindly without putting any context into those projections is a stupid way to project a team. bottom line is they need quality, competent hitters, and they need quite a few of them.

[fish16]

on a positive note groshans has been really good in the limited time in the organization so far. hope that keeps up the rest of the year. hope to see more power though. .304 average, .831 OPS and 9 walks to 8 k's so far since he came over.

[Namaste]

39% of the Marlins losses have been by 1 run

[fish16]

Braxton Garrett essentially out for the year now with an oblique strain. Unbelievable

[fish16]

39% of the Marlins losses have been by 1 run

Someone who hasn’t watched the team would think that’s bad luck but really that’s what you’d expect from a team that cant hit and has a terrible bullpen

[Namaste]

Someone who hasn’t watched the team would think that’s bad luck but really that’s what you’d expect from a team that cant hit and has a terrible bullpen

Terrible “closer”, not a terrible bullpen

[Namaste]

Braxton Garrett essentially out for the year now with an oblique strain. Unbelievable

Jesus