2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

So Max Meyer…..

they’re basically gonna keep him down for another 3 or 4 weeks so he gets three years of arb instead of four.

so clearly them saving 3 or 4 million total is more of a priority than us winning 2-3 more games this year.

sound about right?

It's probably 5+ weeks, $6-10m (if he's a stud), and maybe 1-2 wins this year as 3 is generous unless he is a total revelation....

but yes. Yes sounds about right.

They should have called him up 2-3 weeks ago and gotten a full benefit of innings versus having to pay that hypothetical money in 4-7 years.

[lou]

Breakout for Jerar Encarnacion. 7 straight hits over last two games.

Any time you want to post a minor league breakout, at minimum please look at the BABIP column.

.446 BABIP. Career .319 BABIP.

He's hitting .366 right now. So he is probably over achieving minimum 100 average points and is hitting a true .250+. Which is an improvement, but this is far away from a breakout. Get that BABIP under .340, keep that K rate (which is the real thing going on here... that's a mega 14% drop from last year), and let's see where he's at. Encouraging with red flags. Sounds about right for a guy outside of their top 15 prospects. Also, I'd play him exclusively at 1B right now and see what happens. That will help him carve a future here big time if he can do it. I think we can say this about Burdick and Bleday also.

Speaking of Bleday, you wanna talk breakout, it's him. He's hitting .222/.378/.435 but the BABIP is.257. While JJ's career BABIP is an insane .264, he is no obelisk out there and 50-70 average points could be coming very very quickly. If that walk rate holds, his true performance may be something like .280/.425/.550 and now let's get really excited if that is happening.

[fish16]

Ya, Bleday has had a really good year after a start that looked slow but the peripherals were there. He walks a lot. It's why he has been able to stay even near .700 OPS the last few years despite not hitting for much power. id like to see more power but he's starting to show it recently and its much better than his first 2 years. I think him and burdick and Sanchez is the outfield of the future. Burdick is going to be a low average, high walk and OBP guy with great pure power. Id like to see him get most of the whole year in AAA though. Bleday if he keeps it up id like to see up here in July or August.

[Nick]

I’m going to be in Jacksonville for work Sunday - Wednesday.

anyone know if Max Meyer will be starting any of those days?

Daft, Mish says Meyer’s start has been moved to today.


https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status...lVDtTBOCLiKM6Q

[fish16]

Daft, Amish says Meyer’s start has been moved to today.


https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status...lVDtTBOCLiKM6Q

Looks like they are lining him up with what would be the day poteet is scheduled for his second turn in the rotation. If so great, if not, I’m pretty much done watching this team until he’s up here and Mattingly is fired. There is 0 rational explanation why he’s not up here. I’m fine with poteet making this start because Of the short notice, but he better be pitching sunday

[Lee Stone]

Any time you want to post a minor league breakout, at minimum please look at the BABIP column.

.446 BABIP. Career .319 BABIP.

He's hitting .366 right now. So he is probably over achieving minimum 100 average points and is hitting a true .250+. Which is an improvement, but this is far away from a breakout. Get that BABIP under .340, keep that K rate (which is the real thing going on here... that's a mega 14% drop from last year), and let's see where he's at. Encouraging with red flags. Sounds about right for a guy outside of their top 15 prospects. Also, I'd play him exclusively at 1B right now and see what happens. That will help him carve a future here big time if he can do it. I think we can say this about Burdick and Bleday also.

Speaking of Bleday, you wanna talk breakout, it's him. He's hitting .222/.378/.435 but the BABIP is.257. While JJ's career BABIP is an insane .264, he is no obelisk out there and 50-70 average points could be coming very very quickly. If that walk rate holds, his true performance may be something like .280/.425/.550 and now let's get really excited if that is happening.

Good grief. Last season in AA, Encarnacion hit .222, .308, .708. This year it's .358, .427, 1.010. If that's not a breakout, I don't know what is. He also has six OF assists already - the best OF arm in the system.

[Nick]

Looks like they are lining him up with what would be the day poteet is scheduled for his second turn in the rotation. If so great, if not, I’m pretty much done watching this team until he’s up here and Mattingly is fired. There is 0 rational explanation why he’s not up here. I’m fine with poteet making this start because Of the short notice, but he better be pitching sunday

Hoping Poteet pitches well today, though. Maybe get Hernandez out of the rotation that way.

[fish16]

Hoping Poteet pitches well today, though. Maybe get Hernandez out of the rotation that way.

absolutely, I've always felt poteet coming up through the system was the perfect type of candidate to be moved from fringe starter to reliable bullpen arm. His numbers were never spectacular but they were consistently good. He has always thrown hard and even though I've never thought he would be a long term starter, that's the perfect type of guy who can immediately become a bullpen weapon. As opposed to a guy like Braxton garrett where he lost velocity after TJ surgery and is either gonna be a back end starter or in AAA for his career, these hard throwing fringe starters often become huge relief weapons. The rays have made a habit of finding them in their system and it seems like poteet is that type of guy for us. Similar to holloway's trajectory but he just never has been able to throw strikes and you cant be a major league reliever if you cant throw strikes consistently. But same idea of fringe, back end rotation prospects that throw hard and have good stuff but don't have the ability to go deep into games for whatever reason.

[fish16]

Good grief. Last season in AA, Encarnacion hit .222, .308, .708. This year it's .358, .427, 1.010. If that's not a breakout, I don't know what is. He also has six OF assists already - the best OF arm in the system.

because numbers over a month don't tell you the truth a lot of times. Not sure how you haven't understood that yet after all the different shitty prospects with good numbers you've touted over the years. you have to look to the underlying data to see if they are real or short sample size anomalies.

Jerar hits the ball hard as shit but we need more of a sample to see if these improvements are for real or if they are small sample size outliers that will normalize over the course of the year.

[Lee Stone]

because numbers over a month don't tell you the truth a lot of times. Not sure how you haven't understood that yet after all the different shitty prospects with good numbers you've touted over the years. you have to look to the underlying data to see if they are real or short sample size anomalies.

Jerar hits the ball hard as shit but we need more of a sample to see if these improvements are for real or if they are small sample size outliers that will normalize over the course of the year.

I see. The last few weeks tell the story for Bleday, but not for Encarnacion.

[fish16]

I see. The last few weeks tell the story for Bleday, but not for Encarnacion.

Bledays peripherals, specifically his ability to draw walks and get on base, has been who he is for his entire career, he’s just hitting for more power now which he was always expected to do.

encarnacion is obviously better, he’s not this good though. He’s also old for his competition in aa so how he performs in aaa the rest of the year should give us a good idea of what he actually is

[Lee Stone]

Encarnacion is the same age as Bleday. He's also younger than Burdick. Batters of all ages tend to hit for better numbers in AAA than in the AA Southern League. (See Isan Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, and on and on.)

[fish16]

Encarnacion is the same age as Bleday. He's also younger than Burdick. Batters of all ages tend to hit for better numbers in AAA than in the AA Southern League. (See Isan Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, and on and on.)

His K rate is down 13% from last year and his BABIP is .449 which is completely unsustainable. Everyone wants him to succeed, it's just it needs to be proven over a larger sample and especially once his peripherals come back to earth.

And wow, just looking at Bleday's peripherals and man has his BABIP been super low every year of his career. Career .263 BABIP including this year according to FanGraphs. Not sure how much of it is him not hitting the ball hard as opposed to just being unlucky as I'm never quite sure how to handle BABIP when it comes to guys who hit the ball hard vs. slap hitters. Has there ever been a study done on how to judge BABIP based on average exit velocity? Not sure its fair to compare the BABIP for a guy like Juan Pierre vs a guy like Stanton.

[Lee Stone]

I would start by checking barrel rates and velocity off the bat. Sharply hit balls turn out to be hits more often than not.

[Lee Stone]

Grayson Rodriguez, age 22, is considered the top pitching prospect in baseball. Statistically speaking, Eury Perez, age 19, is every bit as good in his blossoming career. If Kahlil Watson can get his strikeouts under control, the Marlins may have two top-ten prospects after this season.

Ian Lewis is showing other-worldly skill with the bat through his first week of A-Ball.