2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

MLB is the worst list.

The only seasons in Marlins history better than Reynolds 2021 are as follows:

Stanton 2017
Fernandez 2016
Stanton 2014
Hanley 2009
Hanley 2008
Cabrera 2006
Dontrelle 2005
Floyd 2001
Brown 1997
Sheffield 1996
Brown 1996

Look at that list and names. That's how good Bryan Reynolds is and his upside. You can't just dismiss this.

Saying Sanchez is going to be better than him? LAUGH. Sanchez will never have a 6.1 WAR season like Reynolds did last year. What in the hell is going on?

Again no one is saying Meyer and Watson, except Pittsburghs front office. The deals in my head were Watson, Sixto, Bleday/Burdick, or Meyer/Cabrera, Cabrera/Eury, Bleday/Burdick. Neither is necessarily a bad idea, but I'd move the pitchers as more volatile and injury prone. You absolutely accept the lower CF defense, for the hitting upside (and better LF defense).

That being said, I don't disagree "buying low" on Laureano is likely a better idea. I also think Austin Hays is a sneaky get. Both would be great if they don't trade a top 4 system prospect.

Cabrera is bigger than Sixto, he isn't going to have the same conditioning problems of the shorter build.

Ok so they are not top 25 when you just pick and choose which ones you like?

its not about last year, its about what he is moving forward and what that will cost moving forward. He is not going to be close to 6.1 this year and I think he is more in the 3-4 WAR range moving forward, he is due 7 million each of the next 2 years which isn't much, but then likely 20+ million in the future as he ages into his 30s. Are you gonna give his age 30-34 or 35 season 20 million dollars with our payroll constraints? that's my bigger issue moving forward. With our payroll, he is not superstar level talent and not worth giving up the team control years of top prospects with superstar talent and potential and, most importantly, the 6 years of cheap team control for potentially huge production. We can agree to disagree. Meyer and Watson and probably Eury should be untouchable for Reynolds. If that's not good enough for them, find another partner.

If you look at his peripheral stats by year, last year could have been a coming out party or it could have been a complete anomaly. It was by far the lowest K%, highest bb% by a decent margin, and his babip was .345 while league average is about .300. His 2 best years he had a significantly high BABIP. He did increase his launch angle by a decent amount so maybe that's a permanent change but its down to the level it was the other 2 years of his career in the extremely limited sample size thus far this year. Anything with Watson, Eury, or Meyer is a non starter for me. Reynolds doesn't put us over the top, and those guys are extremely valuable pieces moving forward with how young players salary is limited in baseball and our payroll constraints.

Where would you rank him in the entire league? I don't think he's a top 30 guy in baseball, and you'd be giving up two fairly huge prospects with the benefit of their team con trol years. Id rather have Soto, Harper, Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, trout, ohtani, Yordan, Bregman, Tucker, Vlad, Bichette, Tyler O'neill, Arenado, Freeman, Mookie, Will Smith, Trea Turner, Bellnger, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Tatis, JT, Seager, Wander Franco, Devers, Bogaerts, Kris Bryant, Witt, Buxton, Correa, Luis Robert, Judge, and Stanton. Oh and of course lewis brinson. Thats 35 guys. Obviously that's not taking contracts into consideration, but by giving up the haul to get him you're obviously gonna sign him to a big long term contract for his age 30-35 or so season. I just don't see him being as valuable as you do, and that's fine to disagree. We can just see where he is in a few years.

Laureano is the better target for both cost (prospect wise and money moving forward) and fit for what we lack. Wouldnt cost as much and he's a pure CF, probably one of the 2 or 3 best in the league along with Buxton when he's actually out there and not running full speed into walls.

[fish16]

That date has passed - he can come up whenever and he'll just get a 4th arbitration year.

I agree - call him up and get him 125 innings. Space him out over 30+ appearances to get there. Start with 1 time through the order, and hopefully he is effective to go 5+ come August/September.

I'm glad you are thinking LET'S WIN NOW with this, and putting Cabrera in the bullpen too which is a DUH move when healthy. He should absolutely be on the Johan Santana plan as mentioned and I got yelled at about. It's a no-brainer. He can get 125 innings in the bigs too on a similar plan. They do get another year waiting to June so maybe he can stay down for 6 more weeks or so as they have suitable extra relievers (Poteet).

They don't need arms or a "closer." This is an ELITE staff.

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer
Floro, Bender, Sulser, Bass, Cabrera, Hernandez
Bleier, Scott, Okert

AAA = Sixto (is he healthy?), Pop, Head, Poteet, Holloway < - Straight up, if this is your 9th-13th arms in the bullpen you are fine as an organization, let alone these guys are 14-18 for the Marlins right now which is sick.

Trade Sixto in the Laureano package too.

If he is past that deadline he should be up here soon then. That dude is ML ready now and can legitimately be a mid rotation guy at this level already. His slider is filthy. Plus it would be fucking awesome to trot out one of those 5 guys every day.

I like the idea of adding sixto and cabrera when they are healthy in a few months AND getting a proven veteran reliever (not necessarily a "closer"). Solid vet closing options are available at the deadline every year and don't cost a lot. Theoretically sixto and cabrera can be shut down relievers but id be hesitant to think the bullpen is fully fixed with them given they would be in new roles and have injury histories, plus how young they would be pitching in high leverage situations (moreso for cabrera, whereas Sixto to me is just more of an injury risk). Do both, add a solid veteran who has been closing on a shit team at the deadline, and you not only have a super rotation but a really really good bullpen, and all you've cost yourself is a prospect or 2 in the Mccambley, Salas, Lewis range. They have more than enough depth in the system to afford that without really feeling it.

Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer, Luzardo
Veteran "closer", Sixto, Cabrera, Floro, Bender, Bleier, Bass, Scott, Sulser, Poteet, head.

That is a pitching staff that can carry this team to, insert Namaste joke here, 87 wins with this offense.

[lou]

Ok so they are not top 25 when you just pick and choose which ones you like?

its not about last year, its about what he is moving forward and what that will cost moving forward. He is not going to be close to 6.1 this year and I think he is more in the 3-4 WAR range moving forward, he is due 7 million each of the next 2 years which isn't much, but then likely 20+ million in the future as he ages into his 30s. Are you gonna give his age 30-34 or 35 season 20 million dollars with our payroll constraints? that's my bigger issue moving forward. With our payroll, he is not superstar level talent and not worth giving up the team control years of top prospects with superstar talent and potential and, most importantly, the 6 years of cheap team control for potentially huge production. We can agree to disagree. Meyer and Watson and probably Eury should be untouchable for Reynolds. If that's not good enough for them, find another partner.

If you look at his peripheral stats by year, last year could have been a coming out party or it could have been a complete anomaly. It was by far the lowest K%, highest bb% by a decent margin, and his babip was .345 while league average is about .300. His 2 best years he had a significantly high BABIP. He did increase his launch angle by a decent amount so maybe that's a permanent change but its down to the level it was the other 2 years of his career in the extremely limited sample size thus far this year. Anything with Watson, Eury, or Meyer is a non starter for me. Reynolds doesn't put us over the top, and those guys are extremely valuable pieces moving forward with how young players salary is limited in baseball and our payroll constraints.

Where would you rank him in the entire league? I don't think he's a top 30 guy in baseball, and you'd be giving up two fairly huge prospects with the benefit of their team con trol years. Id rather have Soto, Harper, Acuna, Albies, Riley, Olson, trout, ohtani, Yordan, Bregman, Tucker, Vlad, Bichette, Tyler O'neill, Arenado, Freeman, Mookie, Will Smith, Trea Turner, Bellnger, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Tatis, JT, Seager, Wander Franco, Devers, Bogaerts, Kris Bryant, Witt, Buxton, Correa, Luis Robert, Judge, and Stanton. Oh and of course lewis brinson. Thats 35 guys. Obviously that's not taking contracts into consideration, but by giving up the haul to get him you're obviously gonna sign him to a big long term contract for his age 30-35 or so season. I just don't see him being as valuable as you do, and that's fine to disagree. We can just see where he is in a few years.

Laureano is the better target for both cost (prospect wise and money moving forward) and fit for what we lack. Wouldnt cost as much and he's a pure CF, probably one of the 2 or 3 best in the league along with Buxton when he's actually out there and not running full speed into walls.

Reynolds career BABIP is .342, which isn't outrageous with his hit tool. I think he's a pretty safe 4+ WAR player moving forward, which would make him the 2nd best player on the Marlins after Sandy more than likely. They need this kind of guy (likely two) to take them over the top. Given they probably can't sign two of these guys, they are going to have to trade for one. I'd take him over quite a few guys above (as contracts have to come into play, as well as what it would take to get Reynolds also counts), but yes he is not Jose Ramirez or Healthy Buxton. He is not super-elite, just an "all star in his prime controlled for 4 years very cheap."

Of course, healthy Laureano playing at his career rate per 600 PA is also a 4+ WAR player so I still don't disagree he may be better on purely a cost level even with a year less of control.

The overall thing here is, they need 5+ more WAR as a team beyond their farm. Minimum, likely more. Where are they going to get it? Until they do, it's .500 at best. They don't have the depth or upside to do much more absent having insane 1 run luck.

[lou]

If he is past that deadline he should be up here soon then. That dude is ML ready now and can legitimately be a mid rotation guy at this level already. His slider is filthy. Plus it would be fucking awesome to trot out one of those 5 guys every day.

I like the idea of adding sixto and cabrera when they are healthy in a few months AND getting a proven veteran reliever (not necessarily a "closer"). Solid vet closing options are available at the deadline every year and don't cost a lot. Theoretically sixto and cabrera can be shut down relievers but id be hesitant to think the bullpen is fully fixed with them given they would be in new roles and have injury histories, plus how young they would be pitching in high leverage situations (moreso for cabrera, whereas Sixto to me is just more of an injury risk). Do both, add a solid veteran who has been closing on a shit team at the deadline, and you not only have a super rotation but a really really good bullpen, and all you've cost yourself is a prospect or 2 in the Mccambley, Salas, Lewis range. They have more than enough depth in the system to afford that without really feeling it.

Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer, Luzardo
Veteran "closer", Sixto, Cabrera, Floro, Bender, Bleier, Bass, Scott, Sulser, Poteet, head.

That is a pitching staff that can carry this team to, insert Namaste joke here, 87 wins with this offense.

Pitching staff is 13 guys, that is 16. I messed up the numbers too above, so see below. In your scenario, Sixto/Cabrera, Poteet, and Head need to be in AAA, as well as Okert and Hernandez have been DFA'd.

They should shoot for this:

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer
Floro, Bender, Sulser, Bass, Cabrera
Bleier, Scott, Okert
AAA - Head, Poteet, Pop, Holloway, Garrett

It's all in-house and only Floro and Bass are free agents... where you just promote internally with Pop and Head and then wait on Eury and Eder next year(!)

They shouldn't waste any resources on arms - just bats to upgrade DLC (longterm CF), Berti (LHP hitting IF, veteran type), Henry (LHP hitting C), and possibly an Aguilar/Cooper luxury upgrade (someone like Mancini who wouldn't break the farm on a rental).

I'd use Sixto, Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis, E. Hernandez, DLC, Berti, Fitterer/Soriano, Jerar, and other outside top 20 prospects to get those 4 bat upgrades ASAP. As well as do things like absorb Piscotty money as a kicker to Oakland for Laureano. They should use their low payroll as a weapon to buy better guys. Eat bad money.

[lou]

Also - why shouldn't Brandon Marsh still not be in play?

Meyer looks to be improved. They turned down the 1-1 before but both are blossoming. Kick in Cooper and a reliever they can use right now and that is hard for them to say no as they really need pitching?

Ward is over his head, but he looks playable, Adell is a top prospect, and they need a 4th OF.... who is Walsh/Cooper and that's good.

Marlins can find some right handed bat to replace Cooper and Burdick may be a replacement this summer.

Why not?

[Todd]

What do you mean "improved"? Do you just not like Max Meyer for some reason? Meyer had a sub 3 ERA, an almost 3:1 K/BB ratio, and 10 K/9 in 20 GS/101 IP at AA last season. In 2 GS/10 IP in AAA last season he had an ERA under 1 and 15 K/9. And he was 2+ years younger than league norm in both instances.

Meyer should be close to and more or less untouchable. I would not have an issue trading for Marsh but Meyer should not be in that package, especially when Marsh has a BABIP of .355 and K's in 1/4 of ABs.

[lou]

What do you mean "improved"? Do you just not like Max Meyer for some reason? Meyer had a sub 3 ERA, an almost 3:1 K/BB ratio, and 10 K/9 in 20 GS/101 IP at AA last season. In 2 GS/10 IP in AAA last season he had an ERA under 1 and 15 K/9. And he was 2+ years younger than league norm in both instances.

Meyer should be close to and more or less untouchable. I would not have an issue trading for Marsh but Meyer should not be in that package, especially when Marsh has a BABIP of .355 and K's in 1/4 of ABs.

I like Max Meyer a lot and I agree "more or less untouchable," however a longterm CF is worth it. Maybe seeing how I view the organization is important:

C -> Stallings to Mack, with Henry/Fortes/Banfield. They can draft another C 2nd/3rd Rd. per usual. This is fine as a pipeline.
1B -> Cooper for 3 years, Aguilar 1, Lewin 6. You can find corner sticks
2B -> Jazz for 5 years, and Salas/Lewis/Morisette/Nunez/Devers for 6 each.
SS-> Rojas/Wendle for 2 years, WATSON, and maybe Salas stays here plus Nunez/Devers
3B-> Anderson/Wendle for 2, maybe Cappe fits in here as a legit prospect. Could use another in system for sure. Ideally, their 1st/2nd Rd. pick is the heir to 3B.
CF-> No one, Sanchez is a stopgap option at best, Mesa Jr is maybe years away and he's not a top end prospect
OF-> Sanchez for 5, Garcia for 4-5, Burdick and Bleday for 6, and you can find corner sticks
DH-> Soler 1-3, 1B/OF trickle downs could play up here, and you can find sticks
SP-R-> Sandy, Pablo, Meyer, Cabrera, Eury, Sixto, Hernandez < - Awesome
SP-L - > Rogers, Luzardo, Eder, Fulton < - Awesome, but keep drafting them as you can never have enough
RP-> Too many to list but some very good ones, plus SP trickle downs

I think the problem with most fans (especially marlins fans) is fans over rate their own prospects/players. Sometimes dramatically. Which I find doubly bizarre for us considering the Marlins have had at least four of the more spectacular prospect flameouts of recent memory (Hermida, Maybin, Miller, Brinson). I saw some dude on a Pirates board saying "Watson, Meyer, Cabrera, and Bleday is the only fair deal for Reynolds." Like please, that's an emotional response. Meyer's K rate is up, BB rate down, GB rate up, and FIP down in the SSS of this season at a higher level. That is excellent. He's playing better. He's very good. The only ding is the size/reliever risk due to it, but you cross that bridge if it ever happens. That being said, he isn't completely untouchable.

When we're looking at this, something has got to give for a CF. They can't wait. There are none in FA next year. They must trade for one. They need 1-2 massive lineup improvements and it's the obvious one.

Meyer (and Eury and Cabrera and Pablo) should be on the table for guys like Reynolds and Marsh. They have many RHP starters. Marsh has sky high potential, is conducive to high BABIPS with how hard he hits the ball and how fast he is (this is very good - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dont-for...brandon-marsh/), and a 25% K rate is not bad at all in modern relievers throwing 98 always baseball. I believe in him. Absent the stars like Reynolds, or former top 10 overall prospects sky high potential guys like Marsh, Meyer should be off the table. I agree with you there. There are probably only a dozen or two guys in baseball you put them on the table for, and Reynolds and Marsh are definitely two of them. NO WAY for Laureano unless something else is involved.

This being said, I want to know what the Laureano price is like fish16 and I have chatted about - that may be the most bang for the buck to keep all the pitching together for another year. Or alternatively, maybe Meyer/Cabrera are lights out this year, Luzardo looks good.... and then Pablo is the one moved for budget/control reasons even if he's great.

In any event, it looks like the pitching is real so it's time to plant the flag and get a major longterm bat upgrade. I'd trade Meyer/Cooper to them in a second for Marsh, and then make a secondary cheap move to get some bench 1B type to bide time to Lewin/Burdick/Bleday.

[fish16]

at this point max meyer is so close to the majors (he should be up here very very soon) that I wouldn't trade him for anyone without seeing him at the major league level yet. I think his ceiling is top of the rotation guy and given we have a clear hole in the rotation with elieser, id like to see what meyer can do first before dealing him for anyone. If anyone is the guy to trade at this point for an impact bat right now, id deal eury. Super high value, still at least a year, most like 2 from the majors. It would hurt to deal him but I think this team is close enough to competing and he is far enough away where the right bat comes available and id have no problem dealing him.

[fish16]

also, bryan reynolds is -.3 WAR for the year. Glad we didn't deal multiple top prospects for him. He's not worth it. If he could be a CF, I can see the argument, but if he's a long term corner outfielder and we have a few in our system not to mention Sanchez, Soler, and Garcia already there along with BA capable of playing corner outfield, he's not the guy. Brandon Marsh absolutely though. or Adell.

[lou]

also, bryan reynolds is -.3 WAR for the year. Glad we didn't deal multiple top prospects for him. He's not worth it. If he could be a CF, I can see the argument, but if he's a long term corner outfielder and we have a few in our system not to mention Sanchez, Soler, and Garcia already there along with BA capable of playing corner outfield, he's not the guy. Brandon Marsh absolutely though. or Adell.

Lee is that you? We're judging players on 72 PA with a .262 BABIP?

[lou]

at this point max meyer is so close to the majors (he should be up here very very soon) that I wouldn't trade him for anyone without seeing him at the major league level yet. I think his ceiling is top of the rotation guy and given we have a clear hole in the rotation with elieser, id like to see what meyer can do first before dealing him for anyone. If anyone is the guy to trade at this point for an impact bat right now, id deal eury. Super high value, still at least a year, most like 2 from the majors. It would hurt to deal him but I think this team is close enough to competing and he is far enough away where the right bat comes available and id have no problem dealing him.

I've been saying this months - Eury is the one to trade because he is the furthest away. You're slowly inching forward here. This plus saying earlier you're OK now with Cabrera coming to the pen to work him in. We're getting there!

[lou]

And Eury is pissed off we dare mention trading him and whiffs 12(!) in AA as an 18 year old. Jesus christ.

[fish16]

And Eury is pissed off we dare mention trading him and whiffs 12(!) in AA as an 18 year old. Jesus christ.

the pitching depth is ridiculous.

[Nick]

And Eury is pissed off we dare mention trading him and whiffs 12(!) in AA as an 18 year old. Jesus christ.

ERA is high but he’s struck out 30 in 17 innings so far as an 18-19 year old in AA.

[fish16]

max meyer dealing again