2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[gustavopim]

[Namaste]

Lee says some way out in outer space stuff but he nailed Abrams. Pound for pound, fish16 says just as much outrageous stuff as Lee does.

[fish16]

Lee says some way out in outer space stuff but he nailed Abrams. Pound for pound, fish16 says just as much outrageous stuff as Lee does.

And you bring nothing of substance. We all have our role. Id love to hear some of the outrageous stuff I say

[Lee Stone]

Lee, we dump on you but when credit is due, I personally will acknowledge it.

Looks like 21 year old high schooler CJ Abrams is beating 24 year old Bleday to the majors. He was your dude in that draft, and while I still don't think the Marlins made a terrible decision at the time, clearly he (or Riley Greene directly after) would have likely been better picks as of today. In no world would I have thought Abrams would beat him to the majors even if he became the better player overall longterm.

Let's hope Bleday's AFL is generally real and he becomes a 3+ WAR corner bat and not the next Colin Moran. But this is a real punch in the gut if a team further along than the Marlins in SD thinks Abrams can make their team (even if it's due mainly to Tatis getting hurt).

On the plus side, I can assume credit for my diatribes about trading Chris Paddack, who was a brilliant prospect, for Fernando Rodney. I lamented the trade of Alex Vesia, who I put on my top ten prospect list! (A quick glance at his stats for the Dodgers last season tell that story - he was outstanding.) And now there's an Antonio Velez story to play out. I also viewed him as a top ten prospect. I wrote here about how much I wanted the Marlins to trade for Jazz Chisholm six months before the Marlins actually did.

On the less inspired side, I was high on Ben Meyer. That was a weird one. He pitched brilliantly at Jupiter (High-A) but was promoted to the Marlins pen before he pitched even an inning at the AA level. He crashed in his debut and that was it for him. I also lauded the potential of Humberto Mejia, which turned out to be another odd situation. Like Meyer, he was promoted to the Marlins before ever throwing a pitch at AA. He's been injured for the Diamondbacks.

[lou]

And you bring nothing of substance. We all have our role. Id love to hear some of the outrageous stuff I say

You were defending Lewis Brinson August 2021 and you think this team will win 87 games

[lou]

On the plus side, I can assume credit for my diatribes about trading Chris Paddack, who was a brilliant prospect, for Fernando Rodney. I lamented the trade of Alex Vesia, who I put on my top ten prospect list! (A quick glance at his stats for the Dodgers last season tell that story - he was outstanding.) And now there's an Antonio Velez story to play out. I also viewed him as a top ten prospect. I wrote here about how much I wanted the Marlins to trade for Jazz Chisholm six months before the Marlins actually did.

On the less inspired side, I was high on Ben Meyer. That was a weird one. He pitched brilliantly at Jupiter (High-A) but was promoted to the Marlins pen before he pitched even an inning at the AA level. He crashed in his debut and that was it for him. I also lauded the potential of Humberto Mejia, which turned out to be another odd situation. Like Meyer, he was promoted to the Marlins before ever throwing a pitch at AA. He's been injured for the Diamondbacks.

We all agreed on Paddack, so that's not any points. Floro was much better than Vesia last year. However, it would be nice to have a younger lefty.

Who in the farm is ranked higher than Velez for you?

[fish16]

You were defending Lewis Brinson August 2021 and you think this team will win 87 games

Brinson I was clearly wrong on, however even when he was on that streak last year I maintained I would only keep him around as a 4th or 5th outfielder. I still think he hangs around like maybin for 10 years and finds his footing somewhere. And I do think this team has enough to win 87 games and one of the best farm systems in baseball on top of that

If we're bringing up old opinions, you guys also gave me shit for saying we had a starting pitching surplus 2-3 years ago and you were in favor of signing didi gregorious in year 2 of our rebuild for 15 million a year. That would have been a top notch signing that would have been 15 million for literally 0 WAR last year. Which is the exact reason I always hesitate on these conversations about signing mid tier free agents for 2+ year deals for big money. it's almost never worth it for a small market team like us.

[fish16]

On the plus side, I can assume credit for my diatribes about trading Chris Paddack, who was a brilliant prospect, for Fernando Rodney. I lamented the trade of Alex Vesia, who I put on my top ten prospect list! (A quick glance at his stats for the Dodgers last season tell that story - he was outstanding.) And now there's an Antonio Velez story to play out. I also viewed him as a top ten prospect. I wrote here about how much I wanted the Marlins to trade for Jazz Chisholm six months before the Marlins actually did.

On the less inspired side, I was high on Ben Meyer. That was a weird one. He pitched brilliantly at Jupiter (High-A) but was promoted to the Marlins pen before he pitched even an inning at the AA level. He crashed in his debut and that was it for him. I also lauded the potential of Humberto Mejia, which turned out to be another odd situation. Like Meyer, he was promoted to the Marlins before ever throwing a pitch at AA. He's been injured for the Diamondbacks.

Literally nobody was happy they traded Paddack for rodney. That was a clear case of the marlins not understanding peripheral stats and just looking at ERA.

Vesia was not that great last year. His FIP 4.61, xFIP was 4.22, and his BABIP was a ridiculous .143 and he had 5 Walks per 9 innings.

[rmc523]

Literally nobody was happy they traded Paddack for rodney. That was a clear case of the marlins not understanding peripheral stats and just looking at ERA.

Vesia was not that great last year. His FIP 4.61, xFIP was 4.22, and his BABIP was a ridiculous .143 and he had 5 Walks per 9 innings.

No, it was a clear case of Loria getting involved and doing the trade himself.

[fish16]

No, it was a clear case of Loria getting involved and doing the trade himself.

Absolutely true but even Samson to this day talks about how good Rodney’s numbers were as justification for that trade

[Todd]

His numbers weren't even that good. And if memory serves they didn't even ask for Paddack, the Marlins volunteered him as the return.

[lou]

Brinson I was clearly wrong on, however even when he was on that streak last year I maintained I would only keep him around as a 4th or 5th outfielder. I still think he hangs around like maybin for 10 years and finds his footing somewhere. And I do think this team has enough to win 87 games and one of the best farm systems in baseball on top of that

If we're bringing up old opinions, you guys also gave me shit for saying we had a starting pitching surplus 2-3 years ago and you were in favor of signing didi gregorious in year 2 of our rebuild for 15 million a year. That would have been a top notch signing that would have been 15 million for literally 0 WAR last year. Which is the exact reason I always hesitate on these conversations about signing mid tier free agents for 2+ year deals for big money. it's almost never worth it for a small market team like us.

No you said Brinson turned the corner and this is real, and everyone was like "this is nice but SSS. Get back in a few months." He's not hanging around for 10 years. And this team isn't winning 87 absent adding a major player.

And the issue with Didi is process over results. First, I reject the Marlins are a small market team which is important. They have a better media market in the country than most and everything at their disposal to be a middle tier spender and go higher/lower in peak and rebuilding years. The Marlins are small market through 25 years of inept ownership causing fans not to care. Every time they try to do something, they immediately pull the plug. It's pathetic. They also never spend to try and have a fun team. No Tyreek Hill's or Claude Giroux's for the Marlins! Ownership needs to show the fans they care and field competitive teams that are fun even in down years. Don't give me they need prospects to do that - they've had 4 years and the MLB team and the farm is loaded with control. They need to be like Texas who signs Seager/Semien a year early to help their kids develop, sign Eduardo/trade for Meadows a year early to help their kids develop, sign Correa/aggressively trade for Paddack a year early because you know what, they are good and we want to win games. Do this and fans will start caring and you'll start creeping out of "small market" bullshit land. Do this for years. 5+. Build brand confidence. Look at that Heat - they have a never rebuild philosophy and the culture of winnings helps the entire organization. The Marlins stand on the sidelines and don't try. You can't have a rebuild over 5 years in baseball. That's insane.

Second, this team needs to sign those mid-tier guys CONSISTENTLY to plug holes and take shots at getting better. This is where process comes in. The thought process of Garcia and Soler are great examples - is their risk with them? Absolutely, but ultimately they are good signings even if they bomb because there is much to like about them and them TRYING to get better is a good thing. Especially at this lower money deals. This is smart process. They were wrong to not spend more money and sign Didi - or someone similar - to help improve the club a few years ago. It doesn't matter the player didn't work out. That happens. They have to operate like a real franchise and be better. Payroll is so low nothing would be handicapped on 2-3 year deals. So the Didi take? They should have signed him without question. They should sign a Didi EVERY year because the net result is a better team and these are not expensive free agents in the grand scheme of the league.

Third, which is why this offseason is baffling as if they had an offseason to do list, they accomplished items 2-10 (sandy buy out, luxury upgrades with Garcia and Soler, got a starter catcher, built out bench with Wendle, built out bullpen with Sulser and Scott, opportunistic extensions, and those were for Rojas and Bleier) but they didn't do # 1. How the fuck do you not do the single most important thing and get everything else done you need to do? They needed a star bat for CF, or sign one somewhere else and then trade around to fill gaps. They didn't do it. The offseason is generally a failure because of it even with some nice other moves. This is them standing on the sidelines and being assholes. If any other owner in baseball had this team - any - the Marlins would have Correa, traded guys for Reynolds/CF, worried about 2026 later, and gone for it. Plant the flag. Win games. Signing a guy like Didi who has a year left on his hypothetical contract today wouldn't impact this at all. At all.

So when we're thinking about bad takes - it's viewing this team as a 2018 rebuild and the Marlins are poor so therefore the team must be homegrown. It's time to shift perspective because that is wrong. The days of prospect hording are over with this MLB controlled team. It's time to win. Right now. Get better right now. They haven't spent real bucks in 4 years, so when they need "1" more player, they need to do it and sign their guy. No more crying poor. Make a crazy move and get better. Jayson Werth style. They have an 82 win team on Fangraphs which is VERY optimistic. I'd rather them have a 70 win projection versus 82, as there is nothing you can do at 70 and I can appreciate not making moves to get you to 74 wins.... but at 82 you are "1" guy away and 86 wins is a BIG difference. And they didn't get that guy. Fuck them for not trying and this small market analysis. When you shoot yourself in your own foot, you don't get to cry hey I can't walk.

You wanna keep the SP prospects? Great. SIGN SOMEONE AND DON'T TRADE THEM. That would be GREAT! If you can't afford to operate as a MLB team, sell the team. It's that easy. Sell the team if you don't care about winning games. The decision to not add the final piece is MADDENING after what we've been sold for 4 years.

Jeter looks to be right. I totally get his decision. They suck - or surprise us with Reynolds or Laureano on a reasonable trade May 1st and all is forgiven.

[Namaste]

Id love to hear some of the outrageous stuff I say

Haha. It’s outrageous to everyone else on the forum.

It will all sound very reasonable to you.

[fish16]

His numbers weren't even that good. And if memory serves they didn't even ask for Paddack, the Marlins volunteered him as the return.

the numbers were good. he had a .31 ERA and a .87 WHIP in the first 28 innings for the padres even though the peripherals indicated it was smoke and mirrors.

[fish16]

Haha. It’s outrageous to everyone else on the forum.

It will all sound very reasonable to you.

please do give some examples.