2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I'd cut back on Rojas playing time, giving Wendle the big part of a platoon.

Rojas is a tremendous defender so I don't think I'd go that far.... but

Career splits

Wendle - .635 vs LHP; .764 vs RHP. 2021 - .790 vs RHP and over .180 points over LHP
Rojas - .749 OPS vs LHP; .662 vs RHP. 2021 - .885 vs LHP from Rojas and over .240 OPS points over RHP

Rojas LHP / Wendle RHP might a be a .775+ OPS bat with significant defense. This is a 3.5+ WAR SS platoon if the career bat holds and gets fucking silly if they hit like 2021 and average .825+ OPS. I can see Rojas sitting against some tougher righties, Wendle playing against pretty much all RHP at SS/3B for the defense and acceptable bat. That's it. They love Rojas. He won't be benched more than 20-25 games for off days.

The other platoon splits are:

Garcia - crushes LHP and alright RHP but a little weaker. He's a good defender.
Anderson - much better RHP, probably should sit a lot of lefties. Good defender
Jazz - Needs to get better
Sanchez - Needs to get better
Soler - neutral
Aguilar - neutral
Cooper - neutral

Some one has gotta sit and it's probably rotating:

vs LHP - Wendle, Anderson, Sanchez, Jazz. Whoever needs the day off. Wendle is probably worst here.

vs RHP - Whoever needs a rest day. This is not over thinking it and whoever needs the off day they can cycle literally everyone as everyone is a good starter versus right handers, or must play like Jazz/Sanchez for future development.


BTW, Laureano has a .858 LHP / .710 RHP platoon split last year (.814 career LHP.... .795 RHP). He's perfect. So is Reynolds who just hits everything.

[lou]

good talk. time will tell.

roman quinn apparently not making the team and pop and Campbell were optioned to triple a.

We know the answer. You're the last man standing, just like the Yelich trade you hung on too for far too long. They need a CF. This actually telegraphs one to me they are going to get one because they have to have ONE on the roster not named Berti.

Pop has had a rough spring. Makes sense. Good to have him to call up.

So it's going to be:

Bender, Sulser, Bass, Head, Armstrong, Poteet
Bleier, Scott, Okert

You can live with that for sure, especially with Floro coming back and Head/Poteet have options.

[Lee Stone]

I cringed at the Bleier contract extension.. He throws like 87.
He already got blown up twice this spring before pitching the third inning vs the Cardinals this morning.
7 straight absolute rockets off Cardinal bats.

First hit to the rotation today: Hernandez leaves with an arm ailment after one inning. Welcome back Cabrera I assume.

Trevor Rogers velocity at around 93 on the 4-seamer. I remember that pitch sitting at 94-95 last season. As Rogers starts his fifth inning of pitching today, the fastball is down to 91.

[lou]

I cringed at the Bleier contract extension.. He throws like 87.
He already got blown up twice this spring before pitching the third inning vs the Cardinals this morning.
7 straight absolute rockets off Cardinal bats.

First hit to the rotation today: Hernandez leaves with an arm ailment after one inning. Welcome back Cabrera I assume.

Trevor Rogers velocity at around 93 on the 4-seamer. I remember that pitch sitting at 94-95 last season. As Rogers starts his fifth inning of pitching today, the fastball is down to 91.

It's 1 game in spring training.

Bleier is fine and that deal doesn't impact the bottom line. Hernandez is probably going to be fine. He got hit in the back not an arm/head.

I haven't seen one report Rogers is down velocity - Pablo yes you have seen some discouraging news but not Rogers.

Alternatively, if there are issues Meyer, Cabrera, and Eury are basically ready to go, with Sixto coming in the summer, and Luzardo maybe the most hyped spring training pitcher (along with Keller and Gore) for velocity returning so he may explode.

They need a CF still.

[lou]

FG gave Marlins 13th best SP staff. So

Positional Average all 9 spots - 16th
SP - 13th
RP - 16th

80.5 over/under seems fair. I think FG has them around 83 as the SP does seem most important here.

At $76m bucks and nine-ish top 100 prospects. We should all be very angry a stud wasn't dropped on top of this to add 4 wins and then we wait for Jazz/Sanchez/Luzardo/Meyer/Cabrera breakouts, as well as maybe getting Soler2019, GarciaStatcast outburst, Aguilar contract year explosion, bullpen over achieving, etc. to push it over the top.

[rmc523]

FG gave Marlins 13th best SP staff. So

Positional Average all 9 spots - 16th
SP - 13th
RP - 16th

80.5 over/under seems fair. I think FG has them around 83 as the SP does seem most important here.

At $76m bucks and nine-ish top 100 prospects. We should all be very angry a stud wasn't dropped on top of this to add 4 wins and then we wait for Jazz/Sanchez/Luzardo/Meyer/Cabrera breakouts, as well as maybe getting Soler2019, GarciaStatcast outburst, Aguilar contract year explosion, bullpen over achieving, etc. to push it over the top.

Correa should've been added on top of what they've done.

[lou]

Correa should've been added on top of what they've done.

It's very clear two big upgrades would have created an immense team, and they could have likely done it for a $105m payroll and losing three top 9 prospects.

This is effectively Correa and Reynolds, ditching Aguilar and signing a cheaper bench 1B/DH guy to replace him. Same team besides those 3 moves. Sad.

[Lee Stone]

It's 1 game in spring training.

Bleier is fine and that deal doesn't impact the bottom line. Hernandez is probably going to be fine. He got hit in the back not an arm/head.

I haven't seen one report Rogers is down velocity - Pablo yes you have seen some discouraging news but not Rogers.

Alternatively, if there are issues Meyer, Cabrera, and Eury are basically ready to go, with Sixto coming in the summer, and Luzardo maybe the most hyped spring training pitcher (along with Keller and Gore) for velocity returning so he may explode.

They need a CF still.

Well, I'll give you a report. This came from Fangraphs regarding last season:

Like many pitchers this year, Rogers has seen across-the-board increases in his velocity. In 2020, his fastball averaged 93.6 mph and was thrown 54.2% of the time. Over his three starts so far this season, Rogers is throwing his fastball harder, and more frequently: It’s now at 95.2 mph and a 62.2% usage rate. Having seemingly abandoned his so-so curveball, his arsenal now features a low-80s slider and an upper-80s changeup, and though neither is particularly head turning, they pair nicely with his fastball when he’s able to command them.

I'd say he averaged 92.5 today, no more.

[lou]

Well, I'll give you a report. This came from Fangraphs regarding last season:

Like many pitchers this year, Rogers has seen across-the-board increases in his velocity. In 2020, his fastball averaged 93.6 mph and was thrown 54.2% of the time. Over his three starts so far this season, Rogers is throwing his fastball harder, and more frequently: It’s now at 95.2 mph and a 62.2% usage rate. Having seemingly abandoned his so-so curveball, his arsenal now features a low-80s slider and an upper-80s changeup, and though neither is particularly head turning, they pair nicely with his fastball when he’s able to command them.

I'd say he averaged 92.5 today, no more.

This is old, but that's not great if he was landing 95+ and he's 92-93. Hopefully that's just a today/spring thing and getting into shape.

[lou]

Final ZIPS 82-80 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hope...tional-league/

This blows my mind a major CF 3-4 WAR isn't added to this, let alone Correa on top. That's a 90 fucking win team. 90.

[Namaste]

Yeah that’s crazy. Fangraphs literally says in that link that it’s plausible for the Marlins to win the NL East.

[lou]

Jose Ramirez 5/$124 extension.

Basically, why would anyone trade these players so you gotta go for it if you want them. You can see Reynolds getting an 8/$125 any day is what I'm saying.

[Lee Stone]

My lowdown on the '22 Marlins, Record: 70-92 for an overall tough schedule.

C Stallings will help. Speaks well for Henry that he made the roster over Fortes, who looked pretty good with the bat late last season.
1B/DH Aguilar is basically solid. I'm a little nervous about Cooper going into the season ... not an impressive spring.
2B Pitch selection is not good ... knocking him down the batting order. Has to get the K rate down in order to become real good.
SS I'm not a fan of Rojas lack of punch with the bat. His defense seems to be declining as well. This is one of the easiest positions to improve on. Just play Wendle.
3B Anderson needs to get back on track, and quickly, or he will be a goner. As I've said a zillion times, he's really good when he goes oppo, but he has not chosen to take that path consistenlty.
OF Sanchez. I loved him coming out of last season but I'm nervous about his bat/power. Hopefully he puts it in gear.
OF Garcia. He should be okay and have production similar to Sanchez.
OF Soler. His agent is an all star. $36M+ for a guy who had a minus WAR last season?
Wendle's good and Berti might be okay
SP This goes for all of them: pitch counts have soared because they all seem to lack a put-away pitch to throw 0-2 or 1-2.
BP I think the pen will be a problem on a daily basis.

[lou]

My lowdown on the '22 Marlins, Record: 70-92 for an overall tough schedule.

C Stallings will help. Speaks well for Henry that he made the roster over Fortes, who looked pretty good with the bat late last season.
1B/DH Aguilar is basically solid. I'm a little nervous about Cooper going into the season ... not an impressive spring.
2B Pitch selection is not good ... knocking him down the batting order. Has to get the K rate down in order to become real good.
SS I'm not a fan of Rojas lack of punch with the bat. His defense seems to be declining as well. This is one of the easiest positions to improve on. Just play Wendle.
3B Anderson needs to get back on track, and quickly, or he will be a goner. As I've said a zillion times, he's really good when he goes oppo, but he has not chosen to take that path consistenlty.
OF Sanchez. I loved him coming out of last season but I'm nervous about his bat/power. Hopefully he puts it in gear.
OF Garcia. He should be okay and have production similar to Sanchez.
OF Soler. His agent is an all star. $36M+ for a guy who had a minus WAR last season?
Wendle's good and Berti might be okay
SP This goes for all of them: pitch counts have soared because they all seem to lack a put-away pitch to throw 0-2 or 1-2.
BP I think the pen will be a problem on a daily basis.

I wish you were a las vegas casino

[lou]

If we are doing predictions.... 80-82

A lot goes right, a lot goes wrong, but the team looks great for 2023 on paper with plenty of options to move forward with in the rotation. Basically, exactly where we are right now.

Bonus prediction - Correa/Reynolds are 10+ WAR and Aguilar/Soler are around 3 WAR.

Bonus prediction 2 - An 87 win team will make the playoffs