2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Pablo in no way shape or form can be counted on to remain healthy for an entire year. He's had a shoulder injury cut I believe every single full season he's had with us short. the guy has never pitched more than 111 innings in a year and I'm not sure how you can just act like that's not a huge possibility yet again this year.

all of a sudden, he goes down, sixto is out for at least half the year, and you have a rotation of Sandy, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Hernandez, Meyer eventually. that is a great way for your season to go down the tubes fast if they arent ready or arent as good as advertised. It's the exact thing that happened last year with sixto going down. all of a sudden your strength turns into a huge weakness 40% of games because the prospects weren't ready and sixto got injured.

bite the bullet, trade some of the lower level depth to add montas or Manaea to the deal for the good cheap CF like Laureano, create a super rotation if everything goes perfectly and still have a really good rotation with high upside if pablo goes down yet again. They have the prospect depth to get it done.

Right now, you're an injury of Pablo away from the season going to shit. As history has shown, that is more likely than not. To me he's a shoulder surgery eventually waiting to happen given that he's now had I believe 3 different seasons cut short or impeded by the same shoulder injury. It's why he'd be the one guy I trade if I have the choice. Pay the prospect cost to give yourself protection in case a guy who has proven to be injury prone gets injured yet again. It's ok to build on a strength. Plus you can keep their innings lower on Cabrera and hell, Elieser is ideally a really quality muti inning reliever so if he's the guy who gets pushed down a role to the bullpen, so be it. Luzardo also didn't really show much of anything last year to give you the belief that he will all of a sudden re-find the groove he had his first big league year.

Without adding another SP, you are putting wayyyyy to many eggs in the Luzardo, Cabrera, Elieser basket and while I love cabrera, that's not a basket that I would rest the hopes of my season on if I can help it.

I think Luzardo and Hernandez are going to be really good personally, and Cabrera will throw a solid 125. So saying the season goes to hell because Pablo gets hurt..... no. Pablo is a luxury right now. They have the goods. I think you're having an issue with opportunity. You need 1440 innings in baseball. Let's do some basic inning projections.

Sandy - 200
Rogers - 170
Luzardo - 160
Cabrera - 125
Hernandez - 125
Floro - 70
Bender - 65
Bleier - 55
Pop(4th RHP in bullpen) - 55
Okert/rotating permanent 2nd pen lefty - 50

=1,075

365 to go.

Then there is....... Pablo, Meyer, Sixto, Neidert, Poteet, Garrett, Holloway, Head, Yacabonis, Velez, anyone else who breaks through.

They are good. Those guys can throw 365 IP easily, especially of Pablo is getting to the 140s. You're talking about 125 innings to your last 2 relievers in bullpen in mop up with this group, and then whatever Sixto/Meyer/Injury replacements with those AAA starters bring for the rest.

Would Montas be great? Sure. But trading two top 100 prospects for a SP when you have no bat you can definitely say will have a WAR over 2.5 is ridiculous.

[lou]

Also note - they seem to pluck these Richards, Anderson, and Thompson guys out of nowhere. It's not like this is it. They are working those deals right now also. Plus, they can always trade in June/July.

I think it would be great if they got another arm, but Nick is right - CF and an offensive upgrade somewhere comes first. Maybe TWO offensive upgrades after CF (e.g., Soler, Laureano, and Kemp).

[fish16]

I think Luzardo and Hernandez are going to be really good personally, and Cabrera will throw a solid 125. So saying the season goes to hell because Pablo gets hurt..... no. Pablo is a luxury right now. They have the goods. I think you're having an issue with opportunity. You need 1440 innings in baseball. Let's do some basic inning projections.

Sandy - 200
Rogers - 170
Luzardo - 160
Cabrera - 125
Hernandez - 125
Floro - 70
Bender - 65
Bleier - 55
Pop(4th RHP in bullpen) - 55
Okert/rotating permanent 2nd pen lefty - 50

=1,075

365 to go.

Then there is....... Pablo, Meyer, Sixto, Neidert, Poteet, Garrett, Holloway, Head, Yacabonis, Velez, anyone else who breaks through.

They are good. Those guys can throw 365 IP easily, especially of Pablo is getting to the 140s. You're talking about 125 innings to your last 2 relievers in bullpen in mop up with this group, and then whatever Sixto/Meyer/Injury replacements with those AAA starters bring for the rest.

Would Montas be great? Sure. But trading two top 100 prospects for a SP when you have no bat you can definitely say will have a WAR over 2.5 is ridiculous.

I'm not talking about trading for just montas or Manaea, I'm saying add them to a laureano deal. Laureano can be counted on to have over 2.5 WAR if he stays healthy after the suspension. Even factoring in the suspension, every single projection on FanGraphs has him in the 2's by war because he is an unbelievable CF so his defensive value alone will be super high. then if Anderson stays healthy you can count on him for at least 2.5 given that he was straight up bad last year and still put up 1.3 WAR in just 67 games. Jazz I think you can expect somewhere around 2.5 WAR after a full year of experience. rojas was at 2.8 last year. Garcia was at 2.9 WAR last year.

so that's 5 different guys who shouldnt shock you if they get to 2.5 WAR, plus you add in jesus sanchez with a full year, and Jacob stallings had 2.6 WAR last year. Can you pencil any of them in for that kind of production again guaranteed? No, but can you pencil in any player in baseball for 2.5 WAR other than the stars? No, baseball is a streaky sport and players have ups and downs and injuries happen. I'm not saying we don't need another bat or 2, obviously we do, but we have several different pieces who it shouldnt shock you to put up 2.5+ WAR.

I'm not saying a SP is a desperate need at all. Obviously they can absolutely cut it with what they have. All I'm saying is that if they are going to try to get Laureano like I think they should, see what it would cost to tack on one of those high level SP's they will absolutely be trading soon as part of their firesale and see what the additional cost would be. Montas would probably cost a lot, but Manaea is a free agent at the end of the year and if you can add him into a deal it should take a prospect depleting amount extra to add him to laureano. The 2 total would be about 13 million and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see them give you 5-6 WAR between the two of them. Id much rather pay 10 million for maneaa and give up some lower level prospects for him and add another really good SP to our already good rotation on paper than sign a closer for that money.

If all it takes to add Manaea to a deal is a couple lower level guys like Salas and Lewis who are 3+ years from the big leagues at a position we already have watson at, fuck it, go for it. Throw in a mccambley who will realistically absolutely be traded before he gets to the big leagues with us. Build on a strength and don't make yourself rely quite so heavily on Pablo staying healthy and guys like Luzardo and Cabrera being rotation pieces right away, especially when they will be on innings limits. Maneaa isn't going to cost a crazy amount, he is a free agent at the end of the year. It's not unrealisitc at all to pry him and Laureano from the a's for Meyer, Salas, Lewis, and another minor piece.

Manaea, Laureano, Soler, and insert cheaper bullpen option here is probably 25-30 million or so added to the payroll, 8-10 of which can easily be shed with aguilar going somewhere to DH now that that DH market is much more vast.

[fish16]

Also note - they seem to pluck these Richards, Anderson, and Thompson guys out of nowhere. It's not like this is it. They are working those deals right now also. Plus, they can always trade in June/July.

I think it would be great if they got another arm, but Nick is right - CF and an offensive upgrade somewhere comes first. Maybe TWO offensive upgrades after CF (e.g., Soler, Laureano, and Kemp).

completely agree it comes first. That's the clear and obvious need. I'm just saying if you can get Laureano, give the little extra it takes to get Manaea too to definitively shore up the rotation for the year to the point where you could still have a very good rotation even with the unexpected major injury that will almost assuredly pop up at some point. I'm just tired of seasons fall apart because they didn't spend the little extra money or give the little extra in a deal to build up the quality depth needed to sustain the injuries that appear in the grind of a 162 game season. Manaea is a free agent after the year so it shouldn't take a ton extra, just let him walk at the end of the year or if we fall apart early deal him at the deadline, he's not going to block any of these SP prospects for a significant period of the future, it will help you keep the innings down for guys like Luzardo and Cabrera and Meyer, and if all goes perfectly, you can use the depth to create a super deep bullpen full of electric arms.

It is not at all a need really, it's a luxury and it brings your rotation from good to great immediately and might help cover up some of the hitting deficiencies even further, and it really wont take a ton extra to get him if we're going after laureano too.

[Nick]

I wanted to get your guys thoughts on this, I like WAR as a stat in evaluating a singular player's overall value, but is WAR the best tool for evaluating the overall effectiveness of a lineup? Ultimately you have to score runs to win ball games. So yeah Stallings and Rojas both have respectable WARs, but those WARs are almost exclusively defense driven.

[lou]

I'm not talking about trading for just montas or Manaea, I'm saying add them to a laureano deal. Laureano can be counted on to have over 2.5 WAR if he stays healthy after the suspension. Even factoring in the suspension, every single projection on FanGraphs has him in the 2's by war because he is an unbelievable CF so his defensive value alone will be super high. then if Anderson stays healthy you can count on him for at least 2.5 given that he was straight up bad last year and still put up 1.3 WAR in just 67 games. Jazz I think you can expect somewhere around 2.5 WAR after a full year of experience. rojas was at 2.8 last year. Garcia was at 2.9 WAR last year.

so that's 5 different guys who shouldnt shock you if they get to 2.5 WAR, plus you add in jesus sanchez with a full year, and Jacob stallings had 2.6 WAR last year. Can you pencil any of them in for that kind of production again guaranteed? No, but can you pencil in any player in baseball for 2.5 WAR other than the stars? No, baseball is a streaky sport and players have ups and downs and injuries happen. I'm not saying we don't need another bat or 2, obviously we do, but we have several different pieces who it shouldnt shock you to put up 2.5+ WAR.

I'm not saying a SP is a desperate need at all. Obviously they can absolutely cut it with what they have. All I'm saying is that if they are going to try to get Laureano like I think they should, see what it would cost to tack on one of those high level SP's they will absolutely be trading soon as part of their firesale and see what the additional cost would be. Montas would probably cost a lot, but Manaea is a free agent at the end of the year and if you can add him into a deal it should take a prospect depleting amount extra to add him to laureano. The 2 total would be about 13 million and it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to see them give you 5-6 WAR between the two of them. Id much rather pay 10 million for maneaa and give up some lower level prospects for him and add another really good SP to our already good rotation on paper than sign a closer for that money.

If all it takes to add Manaea to a deal is a couple lower level guys like Salas and Lewis who are 3+ years from the big leagues at a position we already have watson at, fuck it, go for it. Throw in a mccambley who will realistically absolutely be traded before he gets to the big leagues with us. Build on a strength and don't make yourself rely quite so heavily on Pablo staying healthy and guys like Luzardo and Cabrera being rotation pieces right away, especially when they will be on innings limits. Maneaa isn't going to cost a crazy amount, he is a free agent at the end of the year. It's not unrealisitc at all to pry him and Laureano from the a's for Meyer, Salas, Lewis, and another minor piece.

Manaea, Laureano, Soler, and insert cheaper bullpen option here is probably 25-30 million or so added to the payroll, 8-10 of which can easily be shed with aguilar going somewhere to DH now that that DH market is much more vast.

I'm the one who did the math to get the bats to 20 WAR so I get it - maybe I didn't convey that above point well. Production is production, but counting on 8-10 bats scrapping to 2+ WAR each to get to 20 WAR isn't really ideal. Especially when compared to..... the chances of a pitching break out (Luzardo, Cabrera, Meyer, Sixto, even Hernandez, and even Sandy and Rogers taking another step which they might!) is MUCH more probable for me than a bat explosion. Maybe Jazz and Sanchez are the real deal and become 3+ WAR monsters, but I'm not holding my breath there for 2022. Honestly, would it surprise any of us if Luzardo is the break out this year and Jazz and Sanchez are alright and strike out a lot?

If we're trading assets, they need hitters. Getting someone like Montas... all this does is replace some innings Head, Okert, Meyer, Sixto, Neidert, Holloway, Poteet, etc. are going to throw. I mean, he's going to be better, but those guys from the Marlins over 175+ IP may actually get to 2 WAR. Head/Okert/Meyer right now have FG projections around 120-130 innings at 1 WAR for instance. Those guys don't suck and we don't need to discuss the epic upside if Sixto and Meyer show up in July. So Montas over achieved last year likely, so is this a 1.5 win improvement and we've traded away 2 of our best 4 prospects to get those 1.5 wins?

Bryan Reynolds is a 5 win improvement to this team. He categorically lifts the hitter projection to a new level because whoever is the bat he replaces is replacement level (Berti, DLC, Quinn). Laureano/Kemp are probably worth 3-4 combined replacing two of those guys. Let's pay in prospects for things with more impact, even if Montas is a nice player. This is major major impact. I get adding another SP to Laureano to help there, the cost is now insane. Watson, Meyer, Salas, Burdick/Bleday easy. Four top 10 prospects. Worth it? That's the move.

And this swings back to Dan Duffy - you want some backup SP options? He was elite last year when he pitched and they could never afford him but for his injury. This is an injury failsafe to me. They'll have Duffy, Sixto, and Meyer coming in the summer. Plus trade options. That's a lot of potential OOMPH to add on the current staff. For CF - can you get Laureano without Watson/Eury/Cabrera/Meyer? Probably, so that makes a lot of sense?

[lou]

I wanted to get your guys thoughts on this, I like WAR as a stat in evaluating a singular player's overall value, but is WAR the best tool for evaluating the overall effectiveness of a lineup? Ultimately you have to score runs to win ball games. So yeah Stallings and Rojas both have respectable WARs, but those WARs are almost exclusively defense driven.

Production is production. I have always wanted a team of 9 Andrelton Simmons/Kevin Kiermaier's with an elite pitching staff to see what happens. That would be a fun experiment for some GM.

I agree with you - there needs to be a mix so every phase of the game can win things for you. Which is why they need at least 2 bats which can hit before thinking about pitching.

[lou]

Greinke 1/$13 Royals.

That's the kind of deal I could have gotten behind, and then trade out Pablo/Bass/Cooper for Marsh and friends.... which is a net gain in salary of maybe $4m.

That would have been a smart move and then use the prospect war chest for something else and still sign Soler.

This can still be done with Tepera + Duffy

[rmc523]

Greinke 1/$13 Royals.

That's the kind of deal I could have gotten behind, and then trade out Pablo/Bass/Cooper for Marsh and friends.... which is a net gain in salary of maybe $4m.

That would have been a smart move and then use the prospect war chest for something else and still sign Soler.

This can still be done with Tepera + Duffy

Agreed. I wanted to sign him.

[rmc523]

My hopes are dwindling that they're actually going to make noteworthy moves/signings.

As FAs come off the board en masse like today, it means other teams will also start going after whatever targets we do possibly have more heavily.

[Nick]

Freeman to the Dodgers.

[lou]

My hopes are dwindling that they're actually going to make noteworthy moves/signings.

As FAs come off the board en masse like today, it means other teams will also start going after whatever targets we do possibly have more heavily.

Reynolds, Ketel, Mullins, Laureano, and Marsh haven't been moved. That's the big one for me. I'm not going to be mad until I see a Reynolds/Laureano package I think the Marlins can (and should have) beat. I'm not too worried about everything else going on, none of it really impacts them.

They could very quickly trade for Laureano/Kemp, sign Soler, sign Duffy, sign Tepera, and DFA Aguilar and attach a prospect to Bass to move his salary and all of a sudden, things look very good at around a $90m payroll. And if that's optimistic, take one of those pitchers out, or both and keep Aguilar.

[rmc523]

Reynolds, Ketel, Mullins, Laureano, and Marsh haven't been moved. That's the big one for me. I'm not going to be mad until I see a Reynolds/Laureano package I think the Marlins can (and should have) beat. I'm not too worried about everything else going on, none of it really impacts them.

They could very quickly trade for Laureano/Kemp, sign Soler, sign Duffy, sign Tepera, and DFA Aguilar and attach a prospect to Bass to move his salary and all of a sudden, things look very good at around a $90m payroll. And if that's optimistic, take one of those pitchers out, or both and keep Aguilar.

I was saying the FA moves indirectly affect us because they may spur teams that miss out on the FAs to start going after our potential targets.

I agree they can still "make this right", but I'm less and less confident as time goes on.

[lou]

I was saying the FA moves indirectly affect us because they may spur teams that miss out on the FAs to start going after our potential targets.

I agree they can still "make this right", but I'm less and less confident as time goes on.

Maybe fish16 is right. Send everything to Oakland for Laureano, Montas, and Kemp. An entire rotation. All of them. Basically keep Watson and Eury, and send all other arms.

Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Eder, AND Fulton. Throw in Morisette/Lewis/Cappe/Nunez and Jerar too in a 7-3 blockbuster. What do we care if the rotation is Sandy (6), Rogers and Luzardo (5), Pablo and Hernandez (3), and Montas (2), as well as maybe Neidert, Poteet, or Garrett may work out. Deal with a SP issue in 2024 or 2025. Draft a college SP this year with 1st pick and that guy and Eury are potential replacements down the road. Maybe you also swap Eder above for Bleday/Burdick and that conceptually still works, and then Eury/Eder/#1 2022 is the top end pipeline.

This is probably $80m - and if you ditch Aguilar and Bass, you clear another $10+ and that signs you probably Kenley and promote Lewin (with Anderson pitching in at 1B and Wendle 3B), or sign Soler (defer some money) and put Yacabonis or whoever in the bullpen. Or spend $90m and do BOTH. Imagine losing Aguilar and Bass below and adding Kenley and Soler.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar, Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson
Sanchez, Kemp
Laureano
Sanchez, DLC

Sandy, Rogers, Montas, Pablo, Luzardo
Floro, Bender, Hernandez, Pop, Head, Bass
Bleier, Okert

[lou]

Yea I'm on board with this.

Montas, Laureano, Kemp

Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Bleday/Burdick, Fulton, Morisette/Nunez, Jerar

How can either say no here? Swap in Eury for Meyer or Cabrera also, and just downgrade Fulton to a much lesser arm. It all works out.