2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

-He also said he thinks they'll sign a closer

They have money for this on an $80m payroll.... let's say they do take Reynolds (all prospects - Watson, Eury/Meyer, Burdick/Bleday, and Neidert/Poteet/Garrett/Holloway), ditch Anderson (maybe in Reynolds move? Maybe he brings back a different infielder?), and keep Pablo... they are probably pushing high $60s in payroll. I don't know what they expect to do for a "closer," but on paper they'd need a platoon/backup 3B to help Wendle and a reliever upgrade. That's it. If they can move Bass in the Reynolds trade as a dump also, move it to mid $60s.

They can easily get two guys for $10-15m range here. Even if "Kenley" eats up most of that, there are some cheap IF platoon options. Villar kind of seems like a good move here (2.1 WAR last year, can't be that expensive)? Jordy Mercer still hits lefties still and he'll be nothing. Lee's favorite player in baseball Brad Miller (1 WAR, 377 PA). Maybe you kick the tires on Jed Lowrie. Or do a small trade for Tony Kemp (that would be great). I think this would be enough to get them to the deadline.

Stallings, Forte
Aguilar, Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
______, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Reynolds
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Elisier, Luzardo
_______, Bender, Floro, Cabrera, Pop, Head
Bleier, Okert

DL - Sixto
AAA - Meyer, Bleday, bunch of replacement arms with upside

I'm into this team. Better have a good IFA signing period to rebuild farm but this team is really club controlled and really cheap so that's fine for 1-2 down farm years.

[Todd]

With all of the arms in this system why would you want Elieser Hernandez in the rotation(or the team at all for that matter)? He has AAAA stuff and his one good stretch in the majors, the shortened 2020, his peripherals said he was much worse than his actual stats.

[rmc523]

With all of the arms in this system why would you want Elieser Hernandez in the rotation(or the team at all for that matter)? He has AAAA stuff and his one good stretch in the majors, the shortened 2020, his peripherals said he was much worse than his actual stats.

Who else do you want in there?

I'd rather get a vet starter - with or without Pablo around - sure, but there are worse options.

[lou]

With all of the arms in this system why would you want Elieser Hernandez in the rotation(or the team at all for that matter)? He has AAAA stuff and his one good stretch in the majors, the shortened 2020, his peripherals said he was much worse than his actual stats.

Elisier is clearly one of the best 13 pitchers in the organization today and projects as a 1 WAR player over 100 innings. Well above replacement level. Sixto is now hurt, Cabrera is going to be on a 120ish pitching inning limit for regular season, and Meyer is likely in the minors for 3 months, and would cap out a little north of there. Thompson was traded.

Big picture, they probably need 450+ innings from Elisier, Luzardo, Cabrera, Sixto, and Meyer. Spread that out how you like. If they do something like Luzardo 150, Elisier 125, Cabrera 125, and Sixto/Meyer the rest in relief roles and filling in gaps if those first three are lower, that's pretty good and reasonable for everyone.

I want Elisier to start and shift to bullpen, and the inverse for Cabrera. Build him up on the Johan Santana plan and swap him for Elisier in July. Luzardo should be good to go day 1. Sixto/Meyer are basically bonuses and relievers for 2022, even if they emerge as important ones.

[lou]

Who else do you want in there?

I'd rather get a vet starter - with or without Pablo around - sure, but there are worse options.

I would prefer this too versus a luxury closer, but the report above says closer so that's that.

Swap the team above with "Greinke" and move Elisier to the bullpen and you've accomplished the same thing $$$ wise.

[fish16]

I like Bryan Reynolds but he's not the kind of guy, in my opinion, that you sell the entire top of the farm for. A top 3 prospect, another top 10, and then 2 more top 20ish guys, sure, but I'm seeing things like Meyer, Watson, and Burdick and that's far too much. He's good but he's not a superstar and the defensive grade according to FanGraphs is pretty bad. Give me a guy who will cost significantly less and has more years of team control like Kelenic or Marsh or a younger guy just on the brink of the ML level.

[fish16]

Sixto supposedly injured again somehow. Quickly looking like he is on the Michael Pineda path of never being able to stay healthy to harness the potential.

[lou]

I like Bryan Reynolds but he's not the kind of guy, in my opinion, that you sell the entire top of the farm for. A top 3 prospect, another top 10, and then 2 more top 20ish guys, sure, but I'm seeing things like Meyer, Watson, and Burdick and that's far too much. He's good but he's not a superstar and the defensive grade according to FanGraphs is pretty bad. Give me a guy who will cost significantly less and has more years of team control like Kelenic or Marsh or a younger guy just on the brink of the ML level.

I too would prefer to sacrifice Pablo (attach Bass) and get Marsh, another guy in Angels 7-10 range, and a flyer, and then spend $20-25m on 2-4 guys (SP, major backup CF upgrade, luxury reliever, Berti/DLC/Okert upgrades), but I'm not going to argue getting a guy who had a 5.5 WAR last year with 4 years of control in his prime. He just needs to be able to handle CF for 2 years and can kick to LF.

[lou]

Sixto supposedly injured again somehow. Quickly looking like he is on the Michael Pineda path of never being able to stay healthy to harness the potential.

It's may be a reason to keep Meyer if a prospect trade happens, as he may have a better shot of staying in the rotation and is most MLB ready.

Sixto and Cabrera might be lethal out of the bullpen with Bender long term, and who is arguing Sandy/Rogers/Pablo/Luzardo/Elisier/Meyer if "the trade" moves Watson/Eury/Burdick. They do have some real arms (Eder, Fulton, McCambley, Neidert, Poteet, Holloway, Garrett, others) after this where probability wise, they will get a few more relievers at minimum out of this. Hell, ask Lee what he thinks about some guys we've never heard of throwing smoke as 27 year olds in AA for 3 weeks! They could even draft a college SP this year in the first round. They seem pretty good at identifying P spare parts also to help with depth - Nick Anderson and Zack Thompson were very good for what they cost and have effectively turned into their starting C and LF at this point.

Thankfully we will have our answers soon and see if we still care. Frankly, this is beating a dead horse but even if Pablo/Eury is moved and Sixto is hurt and becomes a reliever as his health can't be trusted, they still have plenty of arms. At most, they'd need an innings eater short term to help bridge the MLB gap for Luzardo/Meyer/Sixto/Cabrera and then it's just luxury upgrades. They are in such good payroll, pitching, and prospect shape, they are the only reason this team fails on paper.

[Todd]

Elisier is clearly one of the best 13 pitchers in the organization today and projects as a 1 WAR player over 100 innings. Well above replacement level. Sixto is now hurt, Cabrera is going to be on a 120ish pitching inning limit for regular season, and Meyer is likely in the minors for 3 months, and would cap out a little north of there. Thompson was traded.

Big picture, they probably need 450+ innings from Elisier, Luzardo, Cabrera, Sixto, and Meyer. Spread that out how you like. If they do something like Luzardo 150, Elisier 125, Cabrera 125, and Sixto/Meyer the rest in relief roles and filling in gaps if those first three are lower, that's pretty good and reasonable for everyone.

I want Elisier to start and shift to bullpen, and the inverse for Cabrera. Build him up on the Johan Santana plan and swap him for Elisier in July. Luzardo should be good to go day 1. Sixto/Meyer are basically bonuses and relievers for 2022, even if they emerge as important ones.

How does Elieser project as a 1 WAR pitcher over 100 innings? He is at 224 IP for his career and is sitting at .1. He had 0 WAR in 51 IP last season. He is not good.

[lou]

How does Elieser project as a 1 WAR pitcher over 100 innings? He is at 224 IP for his career and is sitting at .1. He had 0 WAR in 51 IP last season. He is not good.

Take it up with:

ZIPS DC - 104 IP / .9 WAR

BAT - 131 IP / 1 WAR

ATC - 127 IP / 1 WAR

FGDC - 122 IP / 1 WAR

STEAMER - 140 IP / 1.1 WAR

ZIPS - 90 IP / .7 WAR

Also it's a fantasy article but - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/deep-l...heaney-flexen/

Hernandez has the talent to be a top-flight starter, he just can’t stay on the mound. Over the past three seasons, he’s barely reached 150 IP, but his 19.2 K%-BB% ranks 36th ahead of - Gray, Musgrove, Syndergaard, Berrios. He attacks hitters with a simple three pitch mix of four-seamer (7% SwStr%, 28% GB%), slider (17% SwStr%, 49% GB%) and an improved changeup (14% SwStr%, 62% GB%). There are a couple of issues to consider. He was not able to keep his fastball velocity games gains (+0.5 mph) but lost some spin (~125 rpm) on his pitches that might be related to the velocity decline. Both declines might be related to the constant injuries. And those arm-related injuries have limited him to just 140 IP over the last four seasons. If anyone is looking for a sleeper, here he is. I might be a little leery adding him in draft-and-hold leagues in the likely instance he misses most of the season. In redraft… at this price… give me all the shares.


It cut off my post, but he is a really nice 9th-11th pitcher on the roster with upside. Pitch him 100-120 to keep him healthy.

[fish16]

I too would prefer to sacrifice Pablo (attach Bass) and get Marsh, another guy in Angels 7-10 range, and a flyer, and then spend $20-25m on 2-4 guys (SP, major backup CF upgrade, luxury reliever, Berti/DLC/Okert upgrades), but I'm not going to argue getting a guy who had a 5.5 WAR last year with 4 years of control in his prime. He just needs to be able to handle CF for 2 years and can kick to LF.

I've always thought that was the right move but I think pablo's injuries have potentially hurt his value to the point where I think the front office might find the reynolds/big time prospect trade is the right move and I hope that's not the case. Pablo is a tremendous pitcher when healthy, but I think his injury history combined with his proximity to free agency makes him the obvious piece to flip for a bat. Id much prefer that deal to a trade where we deal 2-3 top prospects for a bat like reynolds. Like reynolds, but he is not worth blowing up the farm for. But again I would have to see the price. Would do Watson/Eury/Meyer as front runners individually, but any deal where 2 of them are in it and I'm out.

[Todd]

Those projections are asinine and not based in reality. He has had one stretch of games where he was not a negative and he had to massively outperform his peripherals to just be mediocre. He has .1 WAR in 240 career innings.

He is what, 27? With a fastball that sits in the 80s and subpar secondary pitches

He has no business being on an MLB roster let alone in a starting rotation.

[Namaste]

I have very little confidence that Sixto is “all-in” on rehabilitating post-surgery as efficiently as possible.

I love the guy but he looks out of shape in every photo and video I see of him.

If he’s ultimately a bust, Jeter will have traded Yelich and Realmuto for jack shit. That’s pretty wild.

[Namaste]

He has no business being on an MLB roster let alone in a starting rotation.

Spike, you can’t honestly believe this.