2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I certainly wouldn't group Jesus Sanchez with Bleday and Burdick. Jesus equaled Avisail in OPS+ last season per Baseball Reference and will likely have a much better career.

I'm a fan of a Ketel Marte/C Kelly deal. Meyer, Hernandez, Bleday, Burdick, Mack, Nicolas, and McCambley would be a reasonable starting point. Unfortunately, I'm guessing Arizona would want Watson and Perez (deal killers from my perspective).

Marte gets 2 centerpieces. 2 of Jazz, Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer, Watson, and Eury. Maybe Eder or Luzardo if they love them. Not much else to say there. Your deal above doesn't work for a super star on a cheap contract. This is clearly Cabrera/Meyer/Eury and Watson/Eury to me depending on what they want, as we remove Jazz as Marlins need him now, they remove Sixto/Eder with the injuries, and Luzardo is too volatile.

I'd trade Cabrera/Meyer/Eury and Watson/Eury, with Burdick and throw in arms (Neidert) for Ketel/Kelly in a second.

[lou]

i too think the next move will be marte and kelly for a bunch of pitching. And I would like that. don't like his injury history but I think that's the best possible upgrade right now in CF and kelly is a really good catcher IMO. Id be in favor of that.

Newest rumors have us in for eddie rosario, obviously castellanos, and now schwarber. Rosario would be just like Garcia, a stupid move to buy high on a guy likely at a pretty decent price. The interest in Schwarber though as well as other possible DH guys has me wondering if they will tender Aguilar or at least just trade him. Too many DH types to pay him the 7-10 million he will cost unless they are finally willing to spend on a really good bench.

This makes sense if they are Aguilar/Cooper upgrades. But may be dumb.

[fish16]

i really hope the C they are going after isn't jacob stallings. Not a bad player but just such an uninspired, low ceiling move. He's a good defensive catcher but getting a guy whose 3 full seasons in the bigs has had an OPS of between .700 and .710 is just inviting a regression in our ballpark and really limiting how much of an improvement we can make at catcher. Carson kelly is far and away a better player and especially hitter and can really unlock some potential with us that he has had for years since he was stuck behind molina in STL.

Carson kelly and Marte for pitching prospects

C- Kelly
1b- Diaz
2b- JAzz
SS- Rojas
3b- BA
LF- Garcia
CF- Marte
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar/Schwarber

SP- Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Sixto, Elieser

1 or 2 of those SP's might be in a deal (Elieser and Pablo) but that's still a really nice team if the SP's stay healthy.

[fish16]

castellanos supposedly seeking a 7 or 8 year deal. no thank you.

Also no thank you to Gary Sanchez if he is non tendered by the Yankees.

[lou]

i really hope the C they are going after isn't jacob stallings. Not a bad player but just such an uninspired, low ceiling move. He's a good defensive catcher but getting a guy whose 3 full seasons in the bigs has had an OPS of between .700 and .710 is just inviting a regression in our ballpark and really limiting how much of an improvement we can make at catcher. Carson kelly is far and away a better player and especially hitter and can really unlock some potential with us that he has had for years since he was stuck behind molina in STL.

Carson kelly and Marte for pitching prospects

C- Kelly
1b- Diaz
2b- JAzz
SS- Rojas
3b- BA
LF- Garcia
CF- Marte
RF- Sanchez
DH- Aguilar/Schwarber

SP- Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Sixto, Elieser

1 or 2 of those SP's might be in a deal (Elieser and Pablo) but that's still a really nice team if the SP's stay healthy.

There is value in having the best defensive/calling catcher for the pitcher-kids. That will help them grow as best as possible.

I wouldn't sell Stallings short. He and Alfaro (as a premium backup) are projecting for a combined mid 3 WAR over a full season. That is top 10 catcher production based on 2019 and 2021. This is a high floor, and moderate ceiling combo (Alfaro could easily stumbled into 25+ HR, or have another insane BABIP year which he has done multiple times etc.). It isn't exciting at all, but this is a sound 1-3 year plan if they do that while they see what happens with Jackson/Henry/Fortes/Banfield/Mack.

I'd rather have Kelly too, but Marte/Kelly or Reynolds/Stallings are both awesome combos if they can pull it off.

Minor quib - Luzardo is absolutely going to start in the rotation with what they are investing in him

[sports24/7]

Jon Heyman has said Miami is still looking at FA bats mentioning Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rosario (like fish said), but also Chris Taylor and Stallings. Taylor makes sense because they still need a CF, and he can play all over, and Stallings, while uninspiring, is a solid catcher and a big upgrade. But I don’t really get the other guys. Unless you’re moving Sanchez in another deal, or playing him in center, are you really going to pay big for another corner OF? I’d love Castellanos, but that seems a little redundant now.

Also, if you add one of those guys, and that’s your OF, where is the big trade? I guess you could still trade for Moreno, but that’s not a huge trade. Maybe you Anderson and add a 3B or maybe a 1B, and sell Diaz? I like that they’re looking to spend money, but it’s interesting if that’s the way they go about fixing the roster.

[lou]

castellanos supposedly seeking a 7 or 8 year deal. no thank you.

Also no thank you to Gary Sanchez if he is non tendered by the Yankees.

No thanks Nick on that insane year request.

Gary Sanchez has had a BABIP under .225 since the start of 2019, and over those roughly 1,100 PA has produced 3.7 WAR. That is pretty solid as the heavy side of a platoon catcher. This is exactly the kind of guy you take a swing on if he's cheap. He's only 29 and if we want to ding Stallings for not being exciting, this is pure excitement if he "stumbles" into a .260+ BABIP and hits .250+ all of a sudden. That's a 3.5+ WAR player quickly. He's been very good 2 seasons, good 1 season, OK 2 seasons, and 1 covid year nothingness for his career. He's only "bad" because he's a Yankee and under scrutiny. He's fine. I'd take a gamble on this guy for sure if the price is right.

[fish16]

There is value in having the best defensive/calling catcher for the pitcher-kids. That will help them grow as best as possible.

I wouldn't sell Stallings short. He and Alfaro (as a premium backup) are projecting for a combined mid 3 WAR over a full season. That is top 10 catcher production based on 2019 and 2021. This is a high floor, and moderate ceiling combo (Alfaro could easily stumbled into 25+ HR, or have another insane BABIP year which he has done multiple times etc.). It isn't exciting at all, but this is a sound 1-3 year plan if they do that while they see what happens with Jackson/Henry/Fortes/Banfield/Mack.

I'd rather have Kelly too, but Marte/Kelly or Reynolds/Stallings are both awesome combos if they can pull it off.

Minor quib - Luzardo is absolutely going to start in the rotation with what they are investing in him

completely forgot about Luzardo, that was just an oversight on my part. I value defensive catchers as well but Kelly is a great defensive catcher in his own right and has a much better bat with a lot of upside. He started to show it last year then broke his wrist and struggled when he came back. I just hate automatically penciling into your lineup an overwhelmingly mediocre hitter with no real hope for upside offensively. It puts a real strain on the rest of the lineup if injuries inevitably occur. It helps a lot more that the DH is likely coming back so you don't have the 2 bottom spots in the order being awful, but id rather just pay the price it takes to get a really good defensive catcher with some offensive upside at a younger age (28) than going after a guy you flat out know is a bad hitter with no real offensive upside already at 31 years of age. Just seems like a really uninsprijng move with limited upside to me and we need to be taking shots at upside. The only thing you can really say about kelly is he has had a few freak injuries but even then, id rather stomach alfaro filling in due to injury to go along with the upside of Kelly then having limited upside in Stallings while still maintaining the possibility that you are back to alfaro if an injury occurs.

Just given the state of catching in the big leagues today, give me the guy who if he stays healthy can be a top 10, possibly top 5 hitting catcher who also plays good defense instead of a high floor, low upside, older catcher like stallings.

[fish16]

Jon Heyman has said Miami is still looking at FA bats mentioning Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rosario (like fish said), but also Chris Taylor and Stallings. Taylor makes sense because they still need a CF, and he can play all over, and Stallings, while uninspiring, is a solid catcher and a big upgrade. But I don’t really get the other guys. Unless you’re moving Sanchez in another deal, or playing him in center, are you really going to pay big for another corner OF? I’d love Castellanos, but that seems a little redundant now.

Also, if you add one of those guys, and that’s your OF, where is the big trade? I guess you could still trade for Moreno, but that’s not a huge trade. Maybe you Anderson and add a 3B or maybe a 1B, and sell Diaz? I like that they’re looking to spend money, but it’s interesting if that’s the way they go about fixing the roster.

only thing I can think of is they will not bring back aguilar and/or cooper and will take one of the guys they sign and just slot them at DH. I don't love that, aguilar seems to be a clubhouse favorite, and he may not be a .900 OPS guy but he seems like a pillar of consistency with the bat that id love in there at DH everyday. If we are going to give Garcia 10+ million a year, aguilar is well worth the price he will cost for next year.

[emkayseven]

I'd be ecstatic with Stallings or Sanchez tbh. Kelly is better, but I don't believe we'll get him.

[lou]

Jon Heyman has said Miami is still looking at FA bats mentioning Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rosario (like fish said), but also Chris Taylor and Stallings. Taylor makes sense because they still need a CF, and he can play all over, and Stallings, while uninspiring, is a solid catcher and a big upgrade. But I don’t really get the other guys. Unless you’re moving Sanchez in another deal, or playing him in center, are you really going to pay big for another corner OF? I’d love Castellanos, but that seems a little redundant now.

Also, if you add one of those guys, and that’s your OF, where is the big trade? I guess you could still trade for Moreno, but that’s not a huge trade. Maybe you Anderson and add a 3B or maybe a 1B, and sell Diaz? I like that they’re looking to spend money, but it’s interesting if that’s the way they go about fixing the roster.

I think you're moving Aguilar/Cooper if you get Schwarber/Rosario (I'll throw out Castellanos, too expensive).

So if they sign Chris Taylor and Schwarber/Rosario, we're at this:

C - _____, Alfaro
1B - Cooper/Aguilar, Lewin
2B - Jazz
SS - Rojas, Berti
3B - Anderson
LF - Garcia
CF - C. Taylor, _____
RF - Sanchez, Schwarber/Rosario
(DH - Schwarber/Rosario or Lewin)

You have room for a major trade here for sure - You can still plop Ketel/Kelly on this and trade them Meyer, Watson, Burdick, McCambley, Neidert, and De La Cruz (who cares about him) in a 6-2, etc.

Have you created playing time issues? Probably. But adding Ketel/Kelly on top of this would be an unbelievable hitting core. The entire team would be injury proofed for 2 starting players at all positions.

So then....

C - C. Kelly, Alfaro
1B - Cooper/Aguilar, Lewin
2B - Jazz
SS - Rojas, Berti
3B - Anderson
LF - Garcia, Sanchez
CF - K. Marte
RF - C. Taylor, Schwarber/Rosario
(DH - Schwarber/Rosario, Sanchez, or Lewin)

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Sixto/Cabrera
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Elisier, Pop, Head
Bleier, Okert


Top prospects - Sixto/Cabrera, Bleday, Burdick, Eury, Eder, Salas, Mack, I. Lewis, Nicolas, Fulton, Morisette, Cappe, etc. With good 2022 picks even with losing one with Taylor.

Edit - This is $85-90m bucks, subject to front/backloading


"Wow"

[fish16]

chris taylor is a really good player but given his age and the fact that he will be in a much different lineup than he was in LA, id be hesitant to give him a significant contract unless its a shorter term deal (3 years max). His versatility would be awesome to have given the different prospects we will have coming up the next few years in the lineup so that will provide a lot of value like he did in LA, I'm just mostly scared to give out too many years as opposed to too much money. Id much rather give 15 mill a year for 2 years than 10 mill a year over 4 or 5. They have money to spend in the time being until more of the guys become arbitration eligible, use it to give out more money over shorter time than slightly less money over longer term deals.

That being said, from a pure baseball perspective, Taylor would be a really nice signing and id be very interested to see what they would do with him position wise. We keep talking about getting a corner outfielder, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they find better value at 3b and just move Anderson to RF, Sanchez to LF, Garcia to DH, and then do a trade for a C and CF.

[Lee Stone]

chris taylor is a really good player but given his age and the fact that he will be in a much different lineup than he was in LA, id be hesitant to give him a significant contract unless its a shorter term deal (3 years max). His versatility would be awesome to have given the different prospects we will have coming up the next few years in the lineup so that will provide a lot of value like he did in LA, I'm just mostly scared to give out too many years as opposed to too much money. Id much rather give 15 mill a year for 2 years than 10 mill a year over 4 or 5. They have money to spend in the time being until more of the guys become arbitration eligible, use it to give out more money over shorter time than slightly less money over longer term deals.

That being said, from a pure baseball perspective, Taylor would be a really nice signing and id be very interested to see what they would do with him position wise. We keep talking about getting a corner outfielder, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they find better value at 3b and just move Anderson to RF, Sanchez to LF, Garcia to DH, and then do a trade for a C and CF.

Garcia to DH? Cooper is a much better hitter than Garcia.

[fish16]

Garcia to DH? Cooper is a much better hitter than Garcia.

ok for the 3 weeks cooper is healthy he can be DH. In his 4 years here he has played 14, 107, 34, and 71 games. Mattingly has repeatedly made comments about his ability to stay healthy. Id be surprised if he's on the team and, if he is, id be shocked if they count him as anything other than a bench bat with potential to give you more than expected if he stays healthy. You simply cant rely on the guy to stay healthy.

[sports24/7]

chris taylor is a really good player but given his age and the fact that he will be in a much different lineup than he was in LA, id be hesitant to give him a significant contract unless its a shorter term deal (3 years max). His versatility would be awesome to have given the different prospects we will have coming up the next few years in the lineup so that will provide a lot of value like he did in LA, I'm just mostly scared to give out too many years as opposed to too much money. Id much rather give 15 mill a year for 2 years than 10 mill a year over 4 or 5. They have money to spend in the time being until more of the guys become arbitration eligible, use it to give out more money over shorter time than slightly less money over longer term deals.

That being said, from a pure baseball perspective, Taylor would be a really nice signing and id be very interested to see what they would do with him position wise. We keep talking about getting a corner outfielder, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they find better value at 3b and just move Anderson to RF, Sanchez to LF, Garcia to DH, and then do a trade for a C and CF.

Assuming that his contract isn't going to be crazy, I actually wonder if Taylor would be the safest addition because of his versatility. Castellanos was my top choice among the guys I felt were realistic, but Taylor might be the smartest. If they do sign him, ideally they then prioritize getting a really good catcher, because in theory they could then use their biggest chips on that instead of needing to use them on an OF. Or, they could still use them on a good OF, still add a solid catcher, and have a good problem of having to figure out where to play the bats they have.