2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Sign Trevor Story to a large value 2 year deal. He would still be <30 when it is over.

Use pieces at MLB and MiLB level to trade with Athletics(Murphy, who they should have demanded in the Marte deal), Rangers(Lowe), Orioles(Mountcastle), and Twins(Buxton). Trade all older pen arms for whatever you can get.

1. Buxton, CF
2. Story, SS
3. Lowe, 1B(L)
4. Mountcastle, LF
5. Chisholm, 2B(L)
6. Anderson, 3B
7. Sanchez, RF(L)
8. Murphy, C

C-Fortes
UT-Rojas
UT-Isan Diaz(L)
OF-de la Cruz
OF-Miller(L)

SP-Alcantra
SP-Rogers(LHP)
SP-Sanchez
SP-Luzardo(LHP)
SP-Cabrera

RP-Neidert
RP-Garrett(LHP)
RP-Pop
RP-Castano(LHP)
RP-Poteet
RP-Guenther(LHP)
RP-Holloway
RP-Bender

Way too many moving parts

[lou]

Tigers traded for Tucker Barhart - can't remember if it was this site or the other one that was talking about getting him.

Also, Sierra has been outrighted and has the option to elect free agency - hopefully he's gone for good lol.

That was me (could be others also). He is a really good stopgap option. Oh well.

Practically though, I'd rather swing larger for Carson Kelly

[Todd]

Way too many moving parts

Not really. And it would be a young team built to compete in a season or two.

As it stands now this team had Brian Anderson fresh off an injury and nearing 30, a streaky Jazz Chisholm, and a replacement level player in Miguel Rojas as its best offensive players, massive holes at C, LF, and CF, and question marks at 1B and RF. This team isn't set to compete any time soon with that being the case no matter how good the pitching is(and this board overrates the pitching).

[lou]

Not really. And it would be a young team built to compete in a season or two.

As it stands now this team had Brian Anderson fresh off an injury and nearing 30, a streaky Jazz Chisholm, and a replacement level player in Miguel Rojas as its best offensive players, massive holes at C, LF, and CF, and question marks at 1B and RF. This team isn't set to compete any time soon with that being the case no matter how good the pitching is(and this board overrates the pitching).

I'm just saying, that's a lot of moves for a lot of guys with a lot of control. None of those guys are slouches. I think it's 1 major trade, 1 major FA signing, and 3-4 smaller ones (catcher stopgaps, bullpen arms, backend SP, etc.)

In any event, Anderson and Rojas are very high floor 2.5+ WAR players (each paced that last year, and over last few), Jazz and Sanchez have done nothing to not give major playing time, and Aguilar/Cooper/Lewin are more than fine at 1B. Maybe Bleday is coming fast with it clicking in the AFL.

They need 3 bats for sure though. It's CF, C, and any other position on the field pretty much and move around Rojas/Anderson to make it happen.

I sort of agree on SP - it's why I think if Pablo is moved for the CF, they should grab a Jon Gray/Noah Sydeergaard type. I think the problem with the pitching is innings not talent - Cabrera and Sixto are going to max out on 125ish next year. They are going to be fine, but they need Pablo/other veteran innings as the "number 3."

[Todd]

Rojas isn't really high floor. He has never had a positive offensive season and his value is entirely on his glove and he turns 33 before spring training even starts. An average defensive season and he is one of the worst SS in baseball. A great defensive season and he is a mediocre SS(he had a great season with the glove last year and was still a middle of the pack SS because of his lack of hitting).

I never said Sanchez and Chisholm don't deserve every chance they get. Just that they are streaky and still question marks and as it stands both are bottom of the order bats with upside.

My only issue with Anderson is the nagging injuries. I am a fan of his.

Aguilar and Cooper are pretty average. Lewin Diaz looks completely overmatched against MiLB pitching and isnt very good defensively.. The three of them combined are a middle to bottom of the pack 1B.

Massive holes at C, LF, and CF.

This team as is needs to add a lot of talent at a lot of positions quickly and doesn't look like it will be competitive any time soon.

[rmc523]

I'm just saying, that's a lot of moves for a lot of guys with a lot of control. None of those guys are slouches. I think it's 1 major trade, 1 major FA signing, and 3-4 smaller ones (catcher stopgaps, bullpen arms, backend SP, etc.)

In any event, Anderson and Rojas are very high floor 2.5+ WAR players (each paced that last year, and over last few), Jazz and Sanchez have done nothing to not give major playing time, and Aguilar/Cooper/Lewin are more than fine at 1B. Maybe Bleday is coming fast with it clicking in the AFL.

They need 3 bats for sure though. It's CF, C, and any other position on the field pretty much and move around Rojas/Anderson to make it happen.

I sort of agree on SP - it's why I think if Pablo is moved for the CF, they should grab a Jon Gray/Noah Sydeergaard type. I think the problem with the pitching is innings not talent - Cabrera and Sixto are going to max out on 125ish next year. They are going to be fine, but they need Pablo/other veteran innings as the "number 3."

It's the same story every year with pitching and they always try to go reclamation project, but they go too far down on the scrapheap, and the guy ends up fizzling out (like Gio last year). I said before last season we needed a vet innings eater - we need that normally, let alone the year after a shortened season with young guys. I still advocate for it now.

[Lee Stone]

Alcantara or Lopez for Catcher Moreno and another top prospect from Toronto is the big move. Moreno not only becomes the needed catcher, but a long term star at the position for Miami.

[Todd]

I have no issue trading on or both if it strengthens the team with talent ready to help now. I would love Moreno but I also think they could get him without giving up one of the top arms(or even the top arms in the minors). The Blue Jays have an unusually high amount of very good catching prospects of which Moreno is just one which while it is a nice problem to have it hurts them from a negotiation standpoint.

[lou]

Alcantara or Lopez for Catcher Moreno and another top prospect from Toronto is the big move. Moreno not only becomes the needed catcher, but a long term star at the position for Miami.

Sandy is untouchable and you don't get it if you think otherwise

[lou]

Rojas isn't really high floor. He has never had a positive offensive season and his value is entirely on his glove and he turns 33 before spring training even starts. An average defensive season and he is one of the worst SS in baseball. A great defensive season and he is a mediocre SS(he had a great season with the glove last year and was still a middle of the pack SS because of his lack of hitting).

I never said Sanchez and Chisholm don't deserve every chance they get. Just that they are streaky and still question marks and as it stands both are bottom of the order bats with upside.

My only issue with Anderson is the nagging injuries. I am a fan of his.

Aguilar and Cooper are pretty average. Lewin Diaz looks completely overmatched against MiLB pitching and isnt very good defensively.. The three of them combined are a middle to bottom of the pack 1B.

Massive holes at C, LF, and CF.

This team as is needs to add a lot of talent at a lot of positions quickly and doesn't look like it will be competitive any time soon.

The definition of a high floor player is great defense. I think it's a bad bet to think he tanks with how he looks. He is a 10-20 SS in baseball next year easily. He's hit .273/.336/.413 (.302 BABIP, 107 wRC+) since the start of 2020 so I don't think we can say he is a black hole offensively either. He holds his own. He is 15th in WAR since the start of 2020 among SS, and he has the 2nd lowest PA (mostly by 100-250 PA) of everyone in front of him and behind him besides Seager. He's paced 3.9 WAR the last 2 years for full seasons. It's 3 taking into play 2019. Would I bank on that production? No. But he's a good starter and should be a 2.5 WAR guy minimum. This isn't a problem. Neither is Anderson, Jazz, Sanchez, and Aguilar/Cooper/Lewin are all fine. They could easily get 12-15 WAR out of these 7 guys and they are cumulatively $20m, give or take. They did 9.6 last year, and Anderson, Jazz, and Sanchez probably add 750+PA to that because of injuries/minors. Frankly, this is a great set up to have. This is a really solid core with major upside with Jazz/Sanchez, that just needs some OOMPH on top.

So for the later, they won't be competitive soon.....Sandy and Rogers are 4+ WAR SP, Pablo is 3+, they got another 5+ WAR from Floro/Bender/Thompson/Bleier/Pop. That's 16 WAR. Probably $16m dollars. I don't see anything how this can't be a repeat, especially with Rogers and Pablo throwing only 230 innings so they could add A LOT.

So they have a 25-30 WAR team base, spending around $35m bucks, over 15 players. The remainder is 3 starting players, and 2 starting pitching slots and then its bench/bullpen.

So what are they getting out of the 5 major spots they can improve?

Luzardo, Sixto, Cabrera, and Hernandez could all take off in the back of the rotation. We should not be surprised if this group can produce 450+ innings and drop 5 WAR doing it. It could be a lot more if someone goes all Rogers/Sandy/Pablo and those first 3 easily could. So 30-35 WAR. Adding $5m in salary, so we're at $40m bucks.

And then we're at the point we always get back to - CF, C, and I'll say any bat and not LF because I think you can move Anderson/Rojas all over if they happen to land a longterm SS or 3B. What are they doing here, and they have phenomenal amounts of money and trade assets to make it happen.

If it's Castellanos (4.2 WAR last year), Brandon Marsh (high end floor top prospect with defense, let's say he is 2+ WAR with huge potential), and a competent catcher (2 WAR), all of a sudden you can make an argument that if everything cuts right, this team can very quickly project to upper 30s/low 40s in WAR. Trade Pablo for Marsh, and replace with a free agent starter also to call that potential transaction a wash. This is also why I say FUCK IT and say sign Correa, Castellanos, Jon Gray/Syndergaard, Loup/Iglesias, and trade Pablo for Marsh and minor leaguers for Carson Kelly, and beat your chest as that'll add another 5-6 WAR to the projection and still be a $100m team.

If this written in stone? Of course not, but this is a plausible scenario in my eyes, with some real hope if guys like Bleday, Meyer, Nicolas, and hell the Poteets of the world also supplant this.

For perspective, Atlanta had 38 WAR last year and caught fire.

[Todd]

There's really no reason for him to be untouchable.

He had a great last 2 months but before that this season and every season prior he bounced around from looking like a mid to bottom of the rotation guy.

While I will admit I probably underrate him a bit you overrate him at the same time. Especially when he might be able to bring a true ace that's not quite ready plus other players in a return from a team that wants to win now.

[rmc523]

Castellanos opted out of his Reds deal.

[lou]

There's really no reason for him to be untouchable.

He had a great last 2 months but before that this season and every season prior he bounced around from looking like a mid to bottom of the rotation guy.

While I will admit I probably underrate him a bit you overrate him at the same time. Especially when he might be able to bring a true ace that's not quite ready plus other players in a return from a team that wants to win now.

He had a great season. Not just 2 months. He threw the 4th most innings in baseball (a highly desired commodity in the new waves of relievers baseball. He saves the whole pen workload so you can have consistent reliever days if they go in that direction. Which they should with workload concerns for Sixto, Cabrera, Hernandez, Thompson, and maybe even Rogers, Luzardo, and Pablo not being able to go 180 regular season) and had a 4.2 WAR (16th best in baseball). He is not a super ace like Cole, DeGrom, Max, or Burnes, but he is a legitimate # 1 SP right behind them somewhere in the best 10-30 starters in baseball. His floor is a top 3 # 2 SP in baseball depending on how much you like Rogers and the LAD/CHW guys. Compared to his contract (3 arb years) and age (he can be better easily), he's one of the top 25 most valuable players in baseball. I am not over or underrating him. This is who he is. 3.7 WAR projection next year, which is roughly top 25-30 SP. The conservative projection is a low end 1/incredible 2.

If you are going to be a contending team, you cannot trade this player at the absolute beginning of your contending window. Absent something insane like a Franco/Vlad Jr./Ohtani package, he's off the table for me. So is Rogers. Pablo would be also in 98% of situations, but for injury concerns, having Sandy/Rogers/Sixto/Cabrera/Luzardo/Meyer, and needing 2-3 major bats, something has got to give. I can't imagine this "give" is Sandy or Rogers.

As Marlins fans we've been conditioned and battered at trading guys for prospects, but this is a plant your flag year - no more. It's time to contend right now. They have money and trade assets, and need 3 major players, and 2-3 bench/bullpen ones. There are no excuses. The rebuild (build) is over. There is no more "not quite ready" guys coming in for me. All moves are "win now" moves.

As said, if they do some bullshit this offseason, I can't be a fan anymore as they have no clue and are just interesting in making money.

Also what is a true ace? Meyer, Sixto, Cabrera, and Luzardo were/are higher regarded pitching prospects. I'll bet none of them are as good as Sandy longterm. No more dice rolling. They've done that enough, and while they missed on a bunch (Yelich trade, VVM, maybe Scott/Misner), they've hit gold with Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, (Gallen), and I am optimistic a few of Jazz, Sanchez, Bleday, Lewin, Sixto, Cabrera, Luzardo, etc. get added to those first few this time next year.

They need that C, CF, LF/other bat as you mentioned, and to fill out the team with non-Wes Helms shitheads. All roads lead to this. We'll see what they do. Sink or swim.

[Lee Stone]

Be careful of what you wish for ... Brandon Marsh was nowhere near the hitter that De La Cruz was last season.

[lou]

Be careful of what you wish for ... Brandon Marsh was nowhere near the hitter that De La Cruz was last season.

He's exactly the kind of guy you take swings on, and I can't help you if you don't understand that.