2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

If they try to improve the team solely through trades and only increase the payroll by $10-$15 million then that's a failure by the organization. It's not good enough. They've done a good but not great job rebuilding the minor leagues. Certainly not well enough to expect they can build a quality major league roster simply through excess prospect capital.

It's flat out pathetic if that's the case. They haven't shown the ability to develop hitters, so they're not going to be able to be the Rays. If they can flip some pitching for hitters that work out, that would be great, but they'd have to really hit on those moves to improve this team enough. Adding even $20M to their payroll won't even move them up one place in payroll, keeping them at 27th in the league. That's a joke.

[lou]

I think it's important to bring up what actually is on the books. This is very rough, unreviewed, arb projections, and over-estimating all club controlled guys. This is as HIGH as it could possibly go, and likely a few million lower. But it's close

New Catcher
Fortes/Jackson/Henry	$ 700,000.00	CC
Aguilar	$ 6,000,000.00	approx. arb
L. Diaz	$ 700,000.00	CC
Jazz	$ 700,000.00	CC
Berti	$ 1,000,000.00	approx. arb
Rojas	$ 5,500,000.00
Anderson	$ 5,000,000.00	approx. arb
Sanchez	$ 700,000.00	CC
New Center Fielder
Cooper	$ 2,750,000.00	approx. arb
De La Cruz	$ 700,000.00	CC
TBD Bat upgrade
Sandy	$ 5,500,000.00	approx. arb
Rogers	$ 700,000.00	CC
Pablo	$ 4,250,000.00	approx. arb
Luzardo	$ 700,000.00	CC
Hernandez	$ 1,250,000.00	approx. arb
Bass	$ 3,000,000.00
Floro	$ 2,000,000.00	approx. arb
Bender	$ 700,000.00	CC
Thompson	$ 700,000.00	CC
Pop	$ 700,000.00	CC
Bleier	$ 2,000,000.00	approx. arb
TBD Lefty
Okert	$ 700,000.00	CC
	$ 45,950,000.00

Please note first - no Sixto and Cabrera. Intentionally left them out to make a point on depth

Second - This is for 22/26 players so not a full roster.

Third - This team can EASILY shed Cooper, Bleier, Berti, Bass, and even Aguilar and drop this further. Incredibly, those guys are 1/3rd present payroll


MLB average team 20-25 in baseball is roughly $85 million.


These dudes could trade Pablo and Bass for a club controlled hitter (Marsh), replace with Sixto and Cabrera, DFA Cooper and Bleier as who cares, and payroll would go DOWN roughly $10 million. They'd need a catcher, TBD hitter anywhere (because you can move Anderson to RF), and two bench bats.

So if $85m is the target, you'd then have roughly $50 million fucking dollars to spend on someone like Correa (call it $33m), and you'd still have a war chest to front load a Sandy extension, get a veteran catcher, and two luxury bench bats. Or fuck it, just keep Cooper and Berti and call it a really nice catcher.



Let's get mad folks if the bullshit continues.

[fish16]

way down on the wishlist for next year, but I really hope they sign some sort of infield bench bat and stop relying on guys like Berti and then inevitably with injuries have to get to guys like Marrero and Panik. Ideally those types of pieces would come from within the system, and maybe brigman can become something interesting, but not only do they need to get a few high end hitters, but they need to spend the small amounts of money needed to be able to competently be able to sustain key injuries. No more Sierra or Isan or Eddy Alvarez.

[Todd]

To those that watched him at all, did Victor Victor Mesas improved numbers come from adjustments and development or just from him being older and repeating levels?

[Nick]

To those that watched him at all, did Victor Victor Mesas improved numbers come from adjustments and development or just from him being older and repeating levels?

Definitely seemed like there was an increase in power. (from 0 power) I expect him to do better in AA next year, but he'd have to be incredibly better to have even a hope of becoming a 4th OF I would think.

[sports24/7]

I think it's important to bring up what actually is on the books. This is very rough, unreviewed, arb projections, and over-estimating all club controlled guys. This is as HIGH as it could possibly go, and likely a few million lower. But it's close

New Catcher
Fortes/Jackson/Henry	$ 700,000.00	CC
Aguilar	$ 6,000,000.00	approx. arb
L. Diaz	$ 700,000.00	CC
Jazz	$ 700,000.00	CC
Berti	$ 1,000,000.00	approx. arb
Rojas	$ 5,500,000.00
Anderson	$ 5,000,000.00	approx. arb
Sanchez	$ 700,000.00	CC
New Center Fielder
Cooper	$ 2,750,000.00	approx. arb
De La Cruz	$ 700,000.00	CC
TBD Bat upgrade
Sandy	$ 5,500,000.00	approx. arb
Rogers	$ 700,000.00	CC
Pablo	$ 4,250,000.00	approx. arb
Luzardo	$ 700,000.00	CC
Hernandez	$ 1,250,000.00	approx. arb
Bass	$ 3,000,000.00
Floro	$ 2,000,000.00	approx. arb
Bender	$ 700,000.00	CC
Thompson	$ 700,000.00	CC
Pop	$ 700,000.00	CC
Bleier	$ 2,000,000.00	approx. arb
TBD Lefty
Okert	$ 700,000.00	CC
	$ 45,950,000.00

Please note first - no Sixto and Cabrera. Intentionally left them out to make a point on depth

Second - This is for 22/26 players so not a full roster.

Third - This team can EASILY shed Cooper, Bleier, Berti, Bass, and even Aguilar and drop this further. Incredibly, those guys are 1/3rd present payroll


MLB average team 20-25 in baseball is roughly $85 million.


These dudes could trade Pablo and Bass for a club controlled hitter (Marsh), replace with Sixto and Cabrera, DFA Cooper and Bleier as who cares, and payroll would go DOWN roughly $10 million. They'd need a catcher, TBD hitter anywhere (because you can move Anderson to RF), and two bench bats.

So if $85m is the target, you'd then have roughly $50 million fucking dollars to spend on someone like Correa (call it $33m), and you'd still have a war chest to front load a Sandy extension, get a veteran catcher, and two luxury bench bats. Or fuck it, just keep Cooper and Berti and call it a really nice catcher.



Let's get mad folks if the bullshit continues.

They could, but do you think they will? I don’t see any way they sign someone to a long deal like Correa will command. And if Mish is already signaling Castellanos is going to be out of their price range, and they won’t meet Marte’s demands who does that leave on the FA market? And they could trade for a Marsh and get a catcher, but those guys have to develop.

I do think there are avenues to build a good team without spending, but you have to make really good deals and this group hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt on that yet. I’m not mad yet. I said at the trade deadline (or slightly before when we found out they weren’t going to pay Marte) that I want to see what happens this offseason, and that’s still the benchmark for me. But I was already skeptical, and Mish’s latest report has me even more so. I feel like it’s going to end up being more of the same. Maybe a Jazz/Gallen type trade or two and mediocre FAs at CF and C, leading to a middling-at -best team. And if that happens I might just finally be out on this team. I hope like hell they prove me wrong, but it’s hard to give them much faith.

[Todd]

Lopez to Boston for: Tristan Casas(1B), Jeter Downs(SS), Connor Seabold(RHP), Noah Song(RHP), Chih-Jung Liu(RHP). Would you do that?

Put Seabold directly in the bullpen. Let Casas and Downs start/spend the year in AAA. Song and Liu arms for the future, both likely bullpen arms.

[fish16]

Lopez to Boston for: Tristan Casas(1B), Jeter Downs(SS), Connor Seabold(RHP), Noah Song(RHP), Chih-Jung Liu(RHP). Would you do that?

Put Seabold directly in the bullpen. Let Casas and Downs start/spend the year in AAA. Song and Liu arms for the future, both likely bullpen arms.

you're not getting that haul for Lopez coming off a shoulder injury. Casas is currently the 18th rated prospect in all of baseball according to mlb.com and Jeter downs was the best prospect they got in the Betts trade. Seabold also fairly highly rated according to mlb.com at 13th in their system. Pablo is obviously very good when healthy, but he has never completed a season and the injury continues to be that same pitching shoulder. I don't think his value right now leaguewide matches what he can actually produce for us if he stays healthy. That injury really fucked up what could have been a huge price tag on him this offseason.

I think you can still get a nice return for him, but I see it much more likely to be a 1 for 1 or 1 for 2 deal

[Madman81]

i don't know why we would put any stock in anything mish says about the budget or how much we'll spend. there's basically no upside to broadcasting to the world - either through statements made publicly or through unofficial mouthpieces - that there's money to spend and we want to spend it. why would we negotiate against ourselves?

i'm not going to fret over any supposed development until it's actually game time. it sounds pretty simple - either we step up and spend money or we don't and it's the end of the road for a lot of us. it'll soon become clear one way or the other.

[lou]

They could, but do you think they will? I don’t see any way they sign someone to a long deal like Correa will command. And if Mish is already signaling Castellanos is going to be out of their price range, and they won’t meet Marte’s demands who does that leave on the FA market? And they could trade for a Marsha and get a catcher, but those guys have to develop.

I do think there are avenues to build a good team without spending, but you have to make really good deals and this group hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt on that yet. I’m not made yet. I said at the trade deadline (or slightly before when we found out they weren’t going to pay Marte) that I want to see what happens this offseason, and that’s still the benchmark for me. But I was already skeptical, and Mish’s latest report has me even more so. I feel like it’s going to end up being more of the same. Maybe a Jazz/Gallen type trade or two and mediocre FAs at CF and C, leading to a middling-at -best team. And if that happens I might just finally be out on this team. I hope like hell they prove me wrong, but it’s hard to give them much faith.

I don't think they are going to do it either, but they "could." And we all deserve the "could" at this point.

The free agent bats besides the top tier (call it $18-33m a year guys who are obviously good) are lame or stop gaps. They don't move the needle. The pitching depth is much more interesting (Jon Gray types), and the Marlins can offer a good pitcher's park.

Seeing that payroll estimate, I am on board with them shipping Pablo/Bass to LAA for Marsh + prospects. Add Sixto and Cabrera roster along with Marsh, and now the team is at approximately $41m for 23/26 players on the roster, needing (1) a major bat upgrade for 2B/SS/3B/corner-OF and shuffle Anderson/Rojas around to accomodate the spot), (2) starting catcher, and (3) lefty reliever. If they sign something else, it's a luxury upgrade somewhere (this is where a Jon Gray type comes in).

At this point, if you're not going to sign Correa/Seager/Bryant/Marte/Castellanos, it makes sense to do a major trade for a Ketel/Reynolds/Buxton kind of guy, as you can attach catchers they like to them (Kelly/Stallings/Garver). The farm will take a beating, but you get # 1 and 2 above solved, and you are still not close to cracking $60 million.

You can then STILL sign a Jon Gray kind of guy, a luxury lefty reliever, front load a Sandy arbitration, and let's say DFA Cooper and get a legitimate backup 2B/SS/3B type for $5 million a year. They'd have $25-30m to spend on that and be under $80-85m.

Big picture, this is an $80-85m team. And it's awesome.

Kelly/Garver/Stallings and Fortes/Jackson/Henry
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, "$5m veteran infielder"
Sanchez, De La Cruz
Marsh
Ketel/Reynolds/Buxton

Sandy, Rogers, "Jon Gray/FA Starter", Luzardo, Hernandez
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Sixto, Cabrera
"New Lefty", Bleier, Okert

Importantly, everything is controlled for years besides Aguilar, Rojas, and whoever the veteran SP os (and Buxton if he is the one*), or guys that don't matter like Bleier, Floro, and Berti. They are set up for a major run needing just a few targeted extensions.

You've probably had to ship out Pablo, Meyer, Watson/Bleday/Eury/Fulton/Salas, another good prospect like Burdick/Nicolas/Morisette/Nunez/etc., and other guys outside of top 10 to do this so the farm is hammered once combined with Sixto/Cabrera/Sanchez graduations, but you also have great 2022 draft picks and now spend in IFA so it's not a bad scenario with the talent at MLB level.


There are many scenarios here. Trades, free agency, a combination. All roads lead to them being able to put together an awesome team on paper for under $85m. And if they don't do it, we can stop caring.

[lou]

Lopez to Boston for: Tristan Casas(1B), Jeter Downs(SS), Connor Seabold(RHP), Noah Song(RHP), Chih-Jung Liu(RHP). Would you do that?

Put Seabold directly in the bullpen. Let Casas and Downs start/spend the year in AAA. Song and Liu arms for the future, both likely bullpen arms.

I think this is too much on their end, and more importantly, I think the Marlins need to trade for MLB ready bats. There isn't any future punting anymore. You go into 2022 expecting to make playoffs with this pitching staff.

I'm looking at guys like Ketel, B. Reynolds, are recent prospect promotions like B. Marsh. Immediate plug in contributors as the main piece in every deal.

[sports24/7]

I don't think they are going to do it either, but they "could." And we all deserve the "could" at this point.

The free agent bats besides the top tier (call it $18-33m a year guys who are obviously good) are lame or stop gaps. They don't move the needle. The pitching depth is much more interesting (Jon Gray types), and the Marlins can offer a good pitcher's park.

Seeing that payroll estimate, I am on board with them shipping Pablo/Bass to LAA for Marsh + prospects. Add Sixto and Cabrera roster along with Marsh, and now the team is at approximately $41m for 23/26 players on the roster, needing (1) a major bat upgrade for 2B/SS/3B/corner-OF and shuffle Anderson/Rojas around to accomodate the spot), (2) starting catcher, and (3) lefty reliever. If they sign something else, it's a luxury upgrade somewhere (this is where a Jon Gray type comes in).

At this point, if you're not going to sign Correa/Seager/Bryant/Marte/Castellanos, it makes sense to do a major trade for a Ketel/Reynolds/Buxton kind of guy, as you can attach catchers they like to them (Kelly/Stallings/Garver). The farm will take a beating, but you get # 1 and 2 above solved, and you are still not close to cracking $60 million.

You can then STILL sign a Jon Gray kind of guy, a luxury lefty reliever, front load a Sandy arbitration, and let's say DFA Cooper and get a legitimate backup 2B/SS/3B type for $5 million a year. They'd have $25-30m to spend on that and be under $80-85m.

Big picture, this is an $80-85m team. And it's awesome.

Kelly/Garver/Stallings and Fortes/Jackson/Henry
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, "$5m veteran infielder"
Sanchez, De La Cruz
Marsh
Ketel/Reynolds/Buxton

Sandy, Rogers, "Jon Gray/FA Starter", Luzardo, Hernandez
Bender, Floro, Thompson, Sixto, Cabrera
"New Lefty", Bleier, Okert

Importantly, everything is controlled for years besides Aguilar, Rojas, and whoever the veteran SP os (and Buxton if he is the one*), or guys that don't matter like Bleier, Floro, and Berti. They are set up for a major run needing just a few targeted extensions.

You've probably had to ship out Pablo, Meyer, Watson/Bleday/Eury/Fulton/Salas, another good prospect like Burdick/Nicolas/Morisette/Nunez/etc., and other guys outside of top 10 to do this so the farm is hammered once combined with Sixto/Cabrera/Sanchez graduations, but you also have great 2022 draft picks and now spend in IFA so it's not a bad scenario with the talent at MLB level.


There are many scenarios here. Trades, free agency, a combination. All roads lead to them being able to put together an awesome team on paper for under $85m. And if they don't do it, we can stop caring.

Yeah, I hope something like this is the plan if they're not going to spend. I'm kind of thinking that they're not going to deal Pablo, though, and rather will deal from their prospect pool, unfortunately.

[lou]

Yeah, I hope something like this is the plan if they're not going to spend. I'm kind of thinking that they're not going to deal Pablo, though, and rather will deal from their prospect pool, unfortunately.

And that's fine. They can keep him.

Big picture for me, they need 3 good bats. They can trade up to 3 great players/prospects to get them from a pool of Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer, and Watson, and maybe someone has an eye of the beholder for Bleday, E. Hernandez, Eder, Salas, Eury, Fulton, Nicolas, etc.

Doesn't really matter who to me, but maximum three. They can also trade a few of the Burdick/Morisette/McCambley/Misner/Scott class of prospects to make it work.

The rub is, they then need to spend to fill legitimate holes, including via IFA.


This should really be a combo of the two. Trade 1-2 bigger names and 1-2 of the smaller names from that pool above, and then use FA $$$ on the rest. Pablo just makes sense to me as the "big" name to trade because it lowers payroll, he's good for a contender right now, does have an injury history, and the Marlins have pitching depth. He gets you something better than Meyer, so he gets the biggest bat possible is how I see it, etc.

[sports24/7]

Lopez to Boston for: Tristan Casas(1B), Jeter Downs(SS), Connor Seabold(RHP), Noah Song(RHP), Chih-Jung Liu(RHP). Would you do that?

Put Seabold directly in the bullpen. Let Casas and Downs start/spend the year in AAA. Song and Liu arms for the future, both likely bullpen arms.

Even if Boston would take that, and you're getting good value from a Miami POV, I'm not sure this is how I'd want them to spend their resources, honestly. You're sending out arguably the biggest chip you have, and not filling either of your biggest needs (CF and C). I do think they should be looking to upgrade at SS because Rojas should be a super utility guy on a good team, but you can get by with him as your SS for now. You badly need a CF and C.

[Todd]

I actually don't see going into the season with Fortes as the catcher is the worst thing.
.
He had a good 200 ABs and did it with a BABIP under 200. I think he is fine and if you have to address the position at the deadline you can.