Mish: Marlins close on Deal to Send Starling Marte to A's; Jesus Lazardo to marlins

[Nick]

just going by his career statistics he doesnt seem like much. maybe he figured something out and turned a corner this year. I just dont see it. he's probably a 4th or 5th OF type.

Id like to see jesus sanchez in CF the rest of the year and see how he holds up defensively because if he can become a CF that's a pretty big development given our glut of other corner OF topics.

I'm surprised we haven't seen any of that at all this season especially at AAA. They've had Bleday and Burdick playing a lot of CF in AA, I wonder why they didn't try it with Sanchez, and just that fact that they didn't try it in AAA makes me think that they won't try it at the big leagues.

[sports24/7]

I think De la Cruz is a little better than Organizational filler. His AAA stats at least warrant him a look at CF the rest of this season.

Supposedly he’s better suited for the corners. Hopefully they get a CF in the next couple of days, but he could be a Marte replacement or also a Duvall replacement (there’s a decent amount of buzz that he will get dealt) for the rest of the year, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

[fish16]

I'm surprised we haven't seen any of that at all this season especially at AAA. They've had Bleday and Burdick playing a lot of CF in AA, I wonder why they didn't try it with Sanchez, and just that fact that they didn't try it in AAA makes me think that they won't try it at the big leagues.

i could have sworn he played some CF but looking back at his AAA stats he hasn't. maybe I was thinking about bleday but still surprised he hasn't played CF. guess they are saving that position long term for magneuris sierra's inability to do anything well. Im assuming there is a reason why he hasn't played CF considering he isn't exactly the most fleet of foot.

honestly, I wouldn't hate to see brinson just get 2 months of straight ab's in CF if the alternative is Sierra. Monte to me is done here after the regression in AAA and trying to fight our best player but most likely swinging and missing.

[fish16]

if bleday can play a good CF that really increases his value to the team long term.

[sports24/7]

I feel like the Marlins are going to want someone with speed in CF long term considering how spacious it is out there.

[sports24/7]

Supposedly Kim Ng mentioned Peyton Burdick as a potential long term answer at CF. That’s the type of thing that worries me. I’m afraid they sign a cheap stopgap and hope someone like that develops. That cannot be the plan. I was encouraged when we heard they were looking to add a legit CF and C. If that’s not really the plan, it’s really disheartening, and makes trading Marte less palatable. Let’s hope she was just commenting on the player, not suggesting that’s the plan.

[Nick]

Peyton Burdick: 32 games started in CF this year
JJ Bleday: 20 games

[lou]

Supposedly Kim Ng mentioned Peyton Burdick as a potential long term answer at CF. That’s the type of thing that worries me. I’m afraid they sign a cheap stopgap and hope someone like that develops. That cannot be the plan. I was encouraged when we heard they were looking to add a legit CF and C. If that’s not really the plan, it’s really disheartening, and makes trading Marte less palatable. Let’s hope she was just commenting on the player, not suggesting that’s the plan.

The plan for me is a longterm C and 2B/SS, and a 2 year very competent CF free agent starter (which they can go year to year on). This is assuming they don't really spend money, then they should do all three.

They still have a lot of outfielders and one of them may stumble into CF. I know Misner and Scott are doing nothing, but we all have seen swing path/launch angle changes on guys and they just get it. They didn't play much last year, so I think you hope that the farm OF "depth" of Sanchez, Bleday, Harrison, Brinson, Scott, Misner, Burdick, new guy from Astros, VVM, and even Jazz and Wilson (as SS moving to CF is the new rage), land in CF. If not, you can just tap free agency again in a few years or trade for one. Basically, there is some hope here so I don't think they need to invest as heavily here as C and 2B/SS are much more needed. I kick this can down the road a year or two with a "good" stop-gap, that's it. I think they agree here with what they rumored to offer Marte.

C is a wasteland. I think we all agree Banfield and Fortes are not going to be longterm options, and Alfaro is at best a good backup/light side of platoon guy. They need a longterm stud. Mack is 5 years away probably. This should be the get for Pablo who has to be the trade candidate now after Lazardo acquisition.

Likewise, Diaz, Devers, Nasim, and Brigham are likely not playing opposite Jazz longterm, and Rojas is a super duper utility guy and probably shouldn't be your starting SS even if he is worth 450-500 PA. Plus he is signed for 1 more year and not going to pay him after that. They should get someone for 5+ years. I still have hope they break the bank for Correa. He is perfect.

At this point, it's get the catcher for Pablo, get lefty relievers for Aguilar, Bleier, and other RHP bullpen arms, sign a major longterm 2B/SS in free agency, and sign a stop-gap CF.

I have to imagine if Pablo's medicals check out (which doesn't seem like a real obstacle, he's back in mid-August and throwing), the Dodgers would have to be thrilled to get him even if it costs Ruiz. Is Bauer pitching rest of year? They'd get 3.5 years of control for cheap behind their expensive guys, and Will Smith is awesome. It's a great fit all around. Marlins could chuck in a reliever or maybe even Rojas to get it done too. I feel this could happen.

[Todd]

I really dont get why people are so adamant to keep deal Lopez and keep Alcantra. Lopez is younger, has less service time, and has been better than Alcantra throughout their careers.

[fish16]

probably because he hasnt been better because he is consistently getting hurt 3 out of the last 4 years, he doesnt go deep into games as consistently, and has a lengthy injury history that suggests his shoulder is not going to hold up long term. Lopez's numbers might be slightly better because the advanced metrics value k's more but if you cant ever count on Pablo to make it through a year healthy when it counts he cant be called a better asset. Alcantara is a horse in the rotation with top of the rotation stuff, lopez is a mid rotation guy with maybe a higher floor on a game to game basis but also a lesser ceiling and an injury history. Alcantara will be getting an extension here before too long, lopez will be gone almost assuredly i think before the start of next year if not in the next few days.

[sports24/7]

The plan for me is a longterm C and 2B/SS, and a 2 year very competent CF free agent starter (which they can go year to year on). This is assuming they don't really spend money, then they should do all three.

They still have a lot of outfielders and one of them may stumble into CF. I know Misner and Scott are doing nothing, but we all have seen swing path/launch angle changes on guys and they just get it. They didn't play much last year, so I think you hope that the farm OF "depth" of Sanchez, Bleday, Harrison, Brinson, Scott, Misner, Burdick, new guy from Astros, VVM, and even Jazz and Wilson (as SS moving to CF is the new rage), land in CF. If not, you can just tap free agency again in a few years or trade for one. Basically, there is some hope here so I don't think they need to invest as heavily here as C and 2B/SS are much more needed. I kick this can down the road a year or two with a "good" stop-gap, that's it. I think they agree here with what they rumored to offer Marte.

C is a wasteland. I think we all agree Banfield and Fortes are not going to be longterm options, and Alfaro is at best a good backup/light side of platoon guy. They need a longterm stud. Mack is 5 years away probably. This should be the get for Pablo who has to be the trade candidate now after Lazardo acquisition.

Likewise, Diaz, Devers, Nasim, and Brigham are likely not playing opposite Jazz longterm, and Rojas is a super duper utility guy and probably shouldn't be your starting SS even if he is worth 450-500 PA. Plus he is signed for 1 more year and not going to pay him after that. They should get someone for 5+ years. I still have hope they break the bank for Correa. He is perfect.

At this point, it's get the catcher for Pablo, get lefty relievers for Aguilar, Bleier, and other RHP bullpen arms, sign a major longterm 2B/SS in free agency, and sign a stop-gap CF.

I have to imagine if Pablo's medicals check out (which doesn't seem like a real obstacle, he's back in mid-August and throwing), the Dodgers would have to be thrilled to get him even if it costs Ruiz. Is Bauer pitching rest of year? They'd get 3.5 years of control for cheap behind their expensive guys, and Will Smith is awesome. It's a great fit all around. Marlins could chuck in a reliever or maybe even Rojas to get it done too. I feel this could happen.

If they’re going to go big at SS (I don’t think Jazz can stay there with how he’s been in the field) and C, then I can get behind a stopgap at CF. I just don’t know how optimistic I am that they do that, especially at SS. Mish previously said they were targeting big moves at C and CF, but last night said he was told they aren’t going to get Buxton/Mullins/Marte, so who knows now. With the glut of SS that should hit the market, it would make sense for them to look there.

[Todd]

probably because he hasnt been better because he is consistently getting hurt 3 out of the last 4 years, he doesnt go deep into games as consistently, and has a lengthy injury history that suggests his shoulder is not going to hold up long term. Lopez's numbers might be slightly better because the advanced metrics value k's more but if you cant ever count on Pablo to make it through a year healthy when it counts he cant be called a better asset. Alcantara is a horse in the rotation with top of the rotation stuff, lopez is a mid rotation guy with maybe a higher floor on a game to game basis but also a lesser ceiling and an injury history. Alcantara will be getting an extension here before too long, lopez will be gone almost assuredly i think before the start of next year if not in the next few days.

Alcantra doesn't have "top of the rotation stuff". He has a good sinker and average everything else. And he is borderline awful in games when his sinker is off.

Lopez had made 5 fewer starts in roughly identical service time. Lopez averages roughly a third of an inning less per start over that time frame.

Lopez has been better in K/9, BB/9, FIP, xFIP, and WAR over that time frame.

Lopez has better stuff. He doesn't have the one great pitch like Alcantra does but he has a much better stuff overall. He is also younger.

[fish16]

and yet the actual results have sandy only going on the DL due to covid in his career vs pablo having a shoulder problem 3 out of 4 years, sandy with a lower ERA which are actual results as opposed to FIP which will always favor a pitcher like Pablo because he strikes more guys out, and pablo blows up or doesnt go deep into games significantly more than sandy. Sandy has gone at least 6 innings in 16 of his 21 starts, and 2 of the starts he didn't he seemed to be dealing with his mom dying off the field which might explain the 2 poor starts before going on the bereavement list. Pablo has gone 6 in 10 of his 19 starts and has gone 5 or less 9 different times this year.

This isnt to shit on pablo, but sandy is a flat out more reliable and more consistent pitcher.

Sandy also throws significantly harder than Pablo. sandy's average 4 seam velocity is 97.9 mph this year compared to 93.9 for Pablo. Sandy's velocity has gone up every year since his debut aside from when he was only coming out of the bullpen for st louis for a few games in his first big league stint. And Pablo's velocity was actually down slightly this year compared to last year which is not a great sign. Pablo has also never pitched more than 110 big league innings in a year and Sandy has pitched 197 previously and is on pace for another 198 this year, which shows durability which is incredibly important for a SP

[fish16]

it's like comparing garrett cooper to a similarly successful hitter who actually stays healthy. if you cant count on a guy to actually be able to hold up over a 162 game season you cant argue he has more value than a guy like, say, jesus aguilar, who might have slightly worse overall hitting stats but is actually in the lineup

[Todd]

Fwiw I would personally move both if it could improve the team for future seasons.

They are both mid to back of the rotation starters.