Selling Time: Marlins Trade Deadline Discussion

[Mainge]

What moves would you propose to help us compete next season?

[HUGG]

I don't believe there's any scenario in which this team competes in 2013.

[Anonymous]

I don't believe there's any scenario in which this team competes in 2013.

I can see it. The chances are slim but not impossible, IMO.

[HUGG]

Let me rephrase that. I don't believe there's a scenario that this team competes in 2013 that is also good for them long-term.

I'm fine with building to 2014 (or 15). Their best hope right now is locking up Stanton, re-signing Johnson (either this fall or next July if you want to see another half season of health), hoping that Morrison steps up, and that Yelich and Fernandez are ready to roll in April 2014. If Ruggiano is 80% of what he's somehow done this year, that's a bonus as well.

I don't want them to give a single player in this FA class any kind of long-term deal. It's a shitty group.

I'm also a firm believer that sometimes you have to write seasons off for the good of the future. And while, sure, that's gonna hurt attendance, the best way to ever have a legit fanbase is to be a CONSISTENT winner. And they can't do that by patching together borderline contenders.

[Miamarlin21]

Tank next year to try and be worse than Houston (unlikely) and go for Rodon in 2014.


/homer

[emkayseven]

See, I just don't understand why we would do this given how good Johnson has been since his rough start. I think the smart thing to do would be to make him a part of this team going forward.

In 4 of his last 10 starts he's given up 4 or more runs #justsaying #notelite

[lou]

Let me rephrase that. I don't believe there's a scenario that this team competes in 2013 that is also good for them long-term.

I'm fine with building to 2014 (or 15). Their best hope right now is locking up Stanton, re-signing Johnson (either this fall or next July if you want to see another half season of health), hoping that Morrison steps up, and that Yelich and Fernandez are ready to roll in April 2014. If Ruggiano is 80% of what he's somehow done this year, that's a bonus as well.

I don't want them to give a single player in this FA class any kind of long-term deal. It's a shitty group.

I'm also a firm believer that sometimes you have to write seasons off for the good of the future. And while, sure, that's gonna hurt attendance, the best way to ever have a legit fanbase is to be a CONSISTENT winner. And they can't do that by patching together borderline contenders.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think Michael Bourn on a 4-5 year deal is certainly a legitimate longterm piece. He is a 3.5 WAR in his sleep on defense, base running, and a .675 OPS. Let alone if he does what he is doing this year. Going hard after Span in a trade too I think works, and maybe rolling dice that BJ ever hits his projection (he is 28). I don't think any would turn them into a contender in 2013, but they would be massive longterm upgrades they could have for awhile and fits into this whole 14/15 shenanigans.

Free agency 2014 CF class is Ellsbury, C. Young, and F. Guitterez, and really old Crisp, Torres, and Rajai. Assuming Ellsbury stays in Boston which is highly probable and Hamilton in Texas, Bourn is the best guy available next 2 seasons out there, and I would say BJ at 28 years old is next best (assuming ellsbury/Hamilton resigned).

It's CF time. They have to get one. This is their opportunity when there are a few on the market, the Marlins have some money freed up from Hanley/Infante and don't need another SP for 2013 as they can roll with Turner, Eovaldi, and LeBlanc as the 4-5-6, and a lot of the 2nd tier of prospects (Conley, Hand, Ozuna) had good years to dip into if need be. Rugginao and his .397 BABIP can go to LF and he can sub in for Yelich or Morrison against LHP in 2014.

[HUGG]

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
One GM said there are basically two pricey and relatively healthy Ps who might be available for little return: Buehrle, Matsuzaka,

[lou]

at least he said might

[Big Z]

Can they just get rid of Nolasco already..

[Ramp]

I like your style

[Valid]

In 4 of his last 10 starts he's given up 4 or more runs #justsaying #notelite

And he's given up three or less in six of his last seven and in 16 of his last 20.

I expected better from you.

[emkayseven]

and 7 of those 20 starts were 6 innings or less. #elitestartersgodeep #samplesize
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like, I'm in favor of keeping him, extend him if the price is right, but scouts have said he looks like a 3 starter and he's pitched like a 3 starter. If you can get an ace return from a 3 starter, you do it.

[Valid]

His FIP is 3.33 and he has still been a 3.4 WAR pitcher despite his poor start. I don't see how that's pitching like a No. 3 starter.
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Plus, you cite "sample size," yet your original point was that he has given up 4 or more ER in 4 of his last 10 starts. Is sample size not relevant there?

[Erick]

Speaking of this, I really wonder what the team should do with Heath Bell, at this point.

Would we be better off keeping him?

It's one bad year and, like JJ, you could make a case (based on #'s) that he's been a victim of bad luck.

Like, he's definitely not a ~6 ERA pitcher. If you keep him around until next year's trade deadline, for instance, you'd get more value in return than the nothing you'd get now.

He has a 3.71 FIP. .350 .BABIP/64 LOB % is unlikely to repeat.

His terrible 4.62 BB/9 also seems like an anomaly. His 51.5 zone % (50.2 career) and 59.5 F-strike% (59.7 career) indicate that his BB #'s should not be looking this terrible.