Selling Time: Marlins Trade Deadline Discussion

[tjfla]

Interesting. I'm all in for not looking for projects that may be something in return for JJ. Olt has been solid throughout his short minor league career.

Any other serious suitors that you've heard of for JJ?

If we get a ML ready pitching prospect from TX for JJ, I am assuming Nolasco is gone. Would love to know what he's worth out in the open market.

Teams for JJ seem to be Texas,LAA,Toronto,Boston however all 4 of those teams are looking at multiple pitchers

Honestly I think they would love to trade Nolasco however he doesn;t seem to be high on anyones list. Dodgers and Indians called on him but nothing. The sad thing is last year at this time the Yankees were dying to get him but we were thinking keep him and we will have a nice staff.

[Erick]

No worries. Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton have told me that Ricky Nolasco is a winner countless times. I believe in his Tebowness.

[Bobbob1313]

The idea that people see JJ as a "No. 3 type starter" is laughable to me and, if accurate, says a lot about how far people inside baseball still are from a less shallow understanding of the game.

[CrimsonCane]

I also generally dislike the notion of a No. 1 starter / No. 2 starter / etc. It gives people preconceptions about what you need to build a competent rotation

[The_Godfather]

7th highest payroll in MLB

-71 run differential

What an asshole Loria is to sell at the deadline!!!!!1111111one1

Who is saying he's an asshole for selling? He's an asshole for keeping his incompetent friend (Beinfest) as GM to make these important moves.

[ochre]

The idea that people see JJ as a "No. 3 type starter" is laughable to me and, if accurate, says a lot about how far people inside baseball still are from a less shallow understanding of the game.

I've noticed that sort of language used for JJ too, though recently maybe it's being used to drive down his price? Even some of the smarter baseball blogs cite JJ's W-L and ERA this year. People know Greinke and Hamels are the best pitchers on the market so everyone else, regardless of stats, is far inferior in comparison. Isn't that how mass sports opinions work?

[sports24/7]

The idea that people see JJ as a "No. 3 type starter" is laughable to me and, if accurate, says a lot about how far people inside baseball still are from a less shallow understanding of the game.

Yeah, I don't understand how anyone can say he's a #3. His injury history is obviously going to be a concern, but that should have no influence on what caliber of pitcher he is. Over his career, when he's been healthy, there have been very few pitchers in all of baseball who have been better. IMO, he is quite clearly an ace, but he's an ace with health issues.

[Erick]

Yeah, I don't understand how anyone can say he's a #3. His injury history is obviously going to be a concern, but that should have no influence on what caliber of pitcher he is. Over his career, when he's been healthy, there have been very few pitchers in all of baseball who have been better. IMO, he is quite clearly an ace, but he's an ace with health issues.

I don't think he's an ace anymore.

[Namaste]

Who is saying he's an asshole for selling?

Well let's see..........

90% of all sports writers in the US.

99.9% of people calling into sports radio shows

97% of people I know in real life

I can keep going if you'd like.....

[Bobbob1313]

I don't think he's an ace anymore.

That's fine. But he's 9th in the majors in FIP, 19th in xFIP, 11th in fWAR.

Though I guess he's 24th in SIERA and 26th in tERA, so I guess.

He has the fourth-highest gap between FIP and ERA. But maybe he turned into Ricky Nolasco overnight.

Or maybe his BABIP is .100 higher than last season when he was unquestionably an ace. I dunno.
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The only real knock on him right now, as far as things he can control goes, is that he does not get very deep into games regularly. But that's always been the knock on him.
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I guess really high LD%? I don't think that's sustainable, though.

He's been 95% of what we have come to expect. Even if he's not an ace, he's still clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[Anonymous]

Doesn't that make him an ace, though?

[Bobbob1313]

I would argue he's more ace than not. He had like six bad starts to begin the season with a .450 BABIP and then three bad starts in July. Let's not overstate his struggles.

[Erick]

I'm well aware of his bad luck this year.

Beyond those #'s you presented though, it's quite possible that he's become more hittable because he's lost 2 mph off his fastball since his dominant 2009/2010 seasons. His stuff isn't really the same.

Josh Johnson did not project to be an ace pre-Tommy John. I think a lot of his success in his dominant years had something to do with him being able to bring it at 95 on a consistent basis.

+ the durability issues certainly impact his trade value. He's only gone over 200 innings once in his career.

These are also reasons why I hope we get overwhelmed in a deal and he gets traded, for what it's worth.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm well aware of his bad luck this year.

Beyond those #'s you presented though, it's quite possible that he's become more hittable because he's lost 2 mph off his fastball since his dominant 2009/2010 seasons. His stuff isn't really the same.

Josh Johnson did not project to be an ace pre-Tommy John. I think a lot of his success in his dominant years had something to do with him being able to bring it at 95 on a consistent basis.

His peripherals are perfectly in line with his entire career, with the exception of 2010. Maybe we should not consider the outlier to be his baseline, by which he is forever judged?

He is a ~3.00 FIP pitcher for three out of the last four years, with his worst being a 3.06.

He might not be as good as he appeared to be in 2010. He is also almost certainly one of the 10 or 15 best pitchers in baseball in that time period regardless.

I guess he's "not an ace" or something. But it seems like you have to pick with a very fine-toothed comb to make that distinction.
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Felix Hernandez has lost 2.3 MPH off his fastball from 2010 to 12. Josh Johnson has lost 1.9 in that same span.

I really don't think you can just explain away the gap in FIP and ERA with "He lost fastball velocity and is more hittable."

If he was more hittable, enough to make that sort of gap in his peripherals and performance, it would show up somewhere else. And yet his contact% is essentially identical. He still has crazy elite stuff.

Maybe he isn't an ACE. He's certainly not a No. 3 pitcher either. He'd be the best pitcher on almost every team in baseball.

The gap between the perception of Johnson and the reality is astounding to me.

[Erick]

My point about the fastball velocity is that JJ's stretch of dominance correspond with seasons in which he became more of a power pitcher (post-Tommy John).

Isn't it possible that the 2 mph difference made him a whole lot better? If you look at JJ's minor league #'s and first few years in the big leagues (when he was throwing what he's throwing now in terms of velocity), he was not an ace nor did anyone really project him to be an ace.

Also, I agree with you in the sense that I think he's better than a #3. I also think you're taking these comments too literally. The #'s thing is rather subjective and pretty irrelevant at the end of the day.

I also think you're overrating him a bit when you say "he'd be the best pitcher on almost every team in baseball." I haven't done an exact list, but just thinking about it, I don't think he'd be the best pitcher on about half the teams in baseball right now.