Selling Time: Marlins Trade Deadline Discussion

[Bobbob1313]

Isn't it possible that the 2 mph difference made him a whole lot better?

Certainly.

I also think the statistics don't back that up all that much, beyond ERA.

He threw exactly as hard in 2009 as 2010, but was better one year than the other. Then his velocity dipped in 2011 and he was essentially the same pitcher anyways.

I don't think there's a strong enough correlation to just say "Velocity fell!" There are other indicators that show that his effectiveness is roughly the same.
--------------------

I also think you're overrating him a bit when you say "he'd be the best pitcher on almost every team in baseball." I haven't done an exact list, but just thinking about it, I don't think he'd be the best pitcher on about half the teams in baseball right now.

Brewers
Nationals
White Sox
Tigers
Mariners
Dodgers
Cardinals
Rays
Yankees
Giants
Angels
Phillies

He would not be the best pitcher on those teams. That's probably the extent of it.

He is also being paid less than the best pitchers on eight of those teams.
--------------------
I feel like if JJ's ERA was 3.14 instead of 4.14, it would seem awfully ludicrous to say he's not an ace. But he's essentially pitching as well as he ever did, with the exception of 2010.

He has a 3.26 ERA since his first six starts. The argument is, essentially, that those six starts are enough to say "He is no longer an ace." I don't buy it.

[Erick]

I suppose it's subjective, but you listed 12 teams which is a good amount and some of those teams have multiple pitchers better than JJ, at this point.


As for velocity, there have been studies shown that velo can result in weaker contact.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...balls-in-play/

It's possible that there was at least an adjustment period since he doesn't have the same dominant stuff he once had.
Either way, his .BABIP is higher this year likely, at least partially of a result of his LD% being higher than what he posted in his dominant years.

I mean, you could certainly be right.

The six starts thing represents 30% of his starts this year so I'm not going to shrug it off as some sort of anamoly. Maybe if it was six starts in a row, and he bounced back with 14 quality ones after that. He actually had a couple of really good starts in those first six though and has had some starts in which he's struggled since.

If you take away every pitchers' six worst starts this year, a lot of them are going to have ERA's that make them look like aces too.

[Bobbob1313]

If you take away every pitchers' six worst starts this year, a lot of them are going to have ERA's that make them look like aces too.

This is crap logic. You know that, and you know why it is.

As for velocity, there have been studies shown that velo can result in weaker contact.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...balls-in-play/

Either way, his .BABIP is higher this year likely, at least partially of a result of his LD% being higher than what he posted in his dominant years.

My problem with this line of thinking is that there's really no precedent for it in his career.

He threw exactly as hard in 2009 and 2010, but pitched significantly better in 2010.

His velocity then fell more than a full mile per hour, on average, in 2011, and he pitched exactly as well.

Maybe the drop from 2011 velocity to 2012 is more significant than from 2010 to 2011, but I'm just not sure there is all that much reason to believe that is true.

If there was a more steady correlation between his velocity and his production throughout his career, I'd think there might be something to it. But thus far, there is very little to indicate that.

It's possible that there was at least an adjustment period since he doesn't have the same dominant stuff he once had.

I'd say this is maybe closer to what I'd think. But clearly, he has figured it out and is essentially what we expected. There is very little evidence, beyond ERA and hits allowed, that he is a significantly different or worse pitcher than he once was.
--------------------

some of those teams have multiple pitchers better than JJ, at this point.

Which ones?

Maybe Washington.

Maybe Chicago, though that requires you to have a lot of faith in Jake Peavy, who is pitching well for the first time since the Bush Administration.

Actually, I'm not even sure why I included the Cardinals. Unless, again, you have an inordinate amount of faith in Lance Lynn.

San Francisco, possibly.

Maybe the Phillies, but then Lee and Halladay haven't been great this season, so you can't say JJ isn't an ace because of a semi down year and then put Lee or Halladay above him, right? That wouldn't be consistent.

He's also not clearly worse than many of those pitchers, either.

So, what, at the absolute worst, he's the 13th or 14th best pitcher in baseball? If I amended my claim to "He'd be the best pitcher on 19 of 30 major-league staffs," the point would be essentially unchanged, but would you be OK with it?

[Namaste]

Calm down, guys

:-)

[Bucklin12]

Bobby's throwing boes.

[Mainge]

bows*
--------------------

I've noticed that sort of language used for JJ too, though recently maybe it's being used to drive down his price? Even some of the smarter baseball blogs cite JJ's W-L and ERA this year. People know Greinke and Hamels are the best pitchers on the market so everyone else, regardless of stats, is far inferior in comparison. Isn't that how mass sports opinions work?

I like you a lot, new guy. Good stuff my man.

[Beef]

Bobby Bo(ws)nilla

[Mainge]

I LOVE Bourjos. He'd do a tremendous job covering ground in CF, he has some pop, blazing speed and he hasn't reached his full potential yet.

He doesn't have pop. He also doesn't get on base.

Meh.

[Bobbob1313]

He doesn't have pop. He also doesn't get on base.

Meh.

He's pretty much Emilio Bonifacio before he started walking, but with elite center field defense.

So a low-end starter.

[HUGG]

Well, I mean, the only time he played every day, 2011, he hit .271/.327/.438. He was a 4.8 (br) or 4.3 (fg) WAR player last season.
--------------------
Tell Bonifacio to call me if he ever does that.
--------------------
Bonifacio "before he started walking" never even topped a .650 OPS.
--------------------

He doesn't have pop.

49 extra base hits last year.


I can understand us not wanting him though given the great production we've gotten from the center field position lately.

[Bobbob1313]

Yeah, well.

[HUGG]

He's a 1.5 WAR player this season even with that horrendous April.

I can't fathom why people here wouldn't want him. If he hits .260/.320/.420 every season (and there's no reason to think he won't) with his defense, he's a 4 WAR player every year.

[Mainge]

49 extra base hits last year.


I can understand us not wanting him though given the great production we've gotten from the center field position lately.

Career .407 slg%. 300 OBP.

Yeah sign me up.

[HUGG]

Yeah, he's 25 and put up .765 in his only full season and then had an awful April and lost his job to Mike Trout.

We should definitely not try to get him and his cost-controlled through 2017 and pay BJ Upton 13 mil a season to be not as good as him instead.

[Mainge]

Let's sign Chone Figgins too to pair with Bourj and Boni and wonder why our offense still sucks

Also I don't remember endorsing a BJ Upton signing.
--------------------
I'm cranky because I've been in the sun all day and I'm wiped. I don't know why I'm being mean. I'm sorry.