Beinfest Unhappy?

[Jay]

And since 2008-2009 his teams have gotten progressively worse with his budget expanding in 2010 and 2011. You could argue the best teams since 2006 were made up of the cast-offs he was 'forced' to take to field a ML team.

I don't think he was forced to take cast offs. I think he just threw a bunch of shit against the wall to see what would stick in that time frame. A chimp can do that.

[lou]

Everyone likes to bag on him for his first round picks which is very warranted, but Stanton, Morrison, Johnson, and Gaby make up a lot of that ground really fast. I also think you can be disappointed with the Cabrera trade (even though if we're looking at it purely from a player perspective, Maybin might be turning the corner to make it somewhat better), but the Hanley deal is a no brainer win for the organization, and some of the secondary deals like getting Dontrelle, Nolasco, and Bonifacio are heavily slanted in the Marlins favors.

Every fan base has problems with their GM. I'm not sad if he leaves, but he is not a bad GM and does more good than bad which is all you can really ask for. It could be a lot worse.

I think the next two years will be very telling. What is he going to do with a $85+ million payroll and are three of Dominguez, James, Yelich, and Fernandez going to work out into at least average starting players. I'm optimistic.

[Swifty]

It could be a lot worse?

A few years ago, sure, this argument had some merit, but not anymore. This "core" is pretty meh, the jury is still very much out on Stanton, Logan, Gaby (who I really don't like and don't get the fascination with) and Dominguez, but the Hanley/JJ/Anibal/Ricky core has won nothing and really looks like it never will be able to be the four best players on a playoff team core anyway.

[Bobbob1313]

Getting Anibal instead of Papelbon was a mistake?

[lou]

And since 2008-2009 his teams have gotten progressively worse with his budget expanding in 2010 and 2011. You could argue the best teams since 2006 were made up of the cast-offs he was 'forced' to take to field a ML team.

Payroll has been expanding, but that doesn't mean they were signing anyone else. That is just escalation of Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, Nunez, and Anibal (and Uggla while he was here) for the most part.

It's been the same team. I don't think you can criticize him for "less results more payroll" when it's the same people (and I think the Hanley and Johnson contracts were both great in price when signed). It's not like he is buying new people in free agency who are all flopping. Javy and Buck were the first two significant ones they've signed in awhile, and both of them have had really solid years for what they are being paid.
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Getting Anibal instead of Papelbon was a mistake?

It wasn't. Papelbon has been worth 3 more wins over the last 6 years (and the Red Sox have paid him astronomically more money).

[Bobbob1313]

It's weird to say Beinfest ignores OBP completely and then say you think he has a fascination with Gaby. Am I reading this wrong?

[Swifty]

No, I'm talking about the board's fascination with him as being a building-block piece.
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And I also never said "ignores OBP completely."

[lou]

It could be a lot worse?

A few years ago, sure, this argument had some merit, but not anymore. This "core" is pretty meh, the jury is still very much out on Stanton, Logan, Gaby (who I really don't like and don't get the fascination with) and Dominguez, but the Hanley/JJ/Anibal/Ricky core has won nothing and really looks like it never will be able to be the four best players on a playoff team core anyway.

The core is only 'meh' if you believe Hanley, Johnson, and Anibal are all going to break down and not be perform at their "peak" levels. I agree Nolasco and Anibal will never be a "top 5" player on a playoff team as they are # 3 starters (which is fine), but is anyone viewing them as more than that? Just because they make more money than others on this team doesn't mean the organization feels that way?

The Marlins have 3 "core" guys right now - Hanley, Johnson, and Stanton. They might have a 4th with Morrison (ignoring his issues), and all the free agency chatter sounds like they are going to sign someone big so that might be a 5th. They also have a ton of nice complimentary guys that are good players. This is not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination.

This team really needs three things

1. Health
2. 350+ SP innings from Vazquez/free agency next year
3. Upgrades at 2-3 positions, most notably CF (or 2B if we view Bonifacio as the longterm CF starter), 3B (could be Dominguez), and 1B/LF (wherever Morrison isn't longterm as I agree, Gaby is a solid placeholder but not a longterm starter)

They have at least $20 million to spend in free agency. A lot of the above list is going to get taken care of through acquiring 4-5 new guys, and we'll see how they do.

[Bobbob1313]

"Outwardly discrediting OBP" while building a lineup that features 5/8 opening day starters with BB% of 10% or higher. So he's so bad at his job that even when he tries to be bad at it it backfires?

As for Gaby, does anyone view him as a core piece? When he was putting up an .850 OPS, people were talking about him. Now that he's essentially replicating last season and looking like he's just a .790 OPS bat, does anyone talk about him?

[lou]

No, I'm talking about the board's fascination with him as being a building-block piece.
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And I also never said "ignores OBP completely."

FWIW, Gaby has a 2.9 WAR this year, which is 10th among qualified 1B.

I mean, obviously it's the historical power position and Gaby doesn't have 25+ upside (let alone more), but this is a real good baseball player the team developed. He's not a star and has no upside, but that is good solid production and a player you keep around until they price themselves off the team via arbitration or free agency.

[Bobbob1313]

Solid, unspectacular, and totally useful for a few cheap years. Nothing wrong with that.

[Swifty]

I'm all for giving Mike Stanton a contract extension, but goodness it's premature to talk about him as a core player.

JJ is absolutely, positively, without question a guy on the shot list of best pitcher in baseball when he's healthy, but he's never pitched a full season in his career, made over 30 starts twice and thrown more than 200 innings once. That's not core, that's cherry on top. You count on JJ for anything, you end up where we are.

Hanley, I love him, but you could tell me he's "done" and I'd have no real argument. An alarming evaporation of power, continued and consistent shoulder issues and no real improvement in the field in areas that are easily correctible. I think he's a great player, but I'm not necessarily sure you can count him, either. He's coming off a pretty awful stretch and coming off not insignificant surgery.

That's why the core is 'meh.' I don't think it's fair to count on Stanton for anything yet, you're talking about a season and a half. Yes, he looks to be on his way, but after a season and a half, Hermida was still a promising player too (not saying that's at all the case here, just a recent reminder of the rush to judgment risks). Hanley is in the worst stretch of his career, and it's lasted more than a year (the power disappearance) and JJ, well, he is what he is and I don't think anyone would argue otherwise.

Certainly three guys you love to have and don't even think about moving, but, again, if the point is to win ballgames and win a lot of them, shouldn't your core be more than a crapshoot?
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"Outwardly discrediting OBP" while building a lineup that features 5/8 opening day starters with BB% of 10% or higher. So he's so bad at his job that even when he tries to be bad at it it backfires?

As for Gaby, does anyone view him as a core piece? When he was putting up an .850 OPS, people were talking about him. Now that he's essentially replicating last season and looking like he's just a .790 OPS bat, does anyone talk about him?

I'm not sure what you're going for there...

He's had interviews on FSN, with the 790 people where (paraphrasing) he's repeatedly said "well, that's a little too money ball for us" in context of players hitting higher in the order based on their OBP.

Are you really trying to imply that he "gets it" with OBP based simply on players who are in the lineup and walk, organizational philosophy be damned?

[lou]

I have no argument if you believe they are "un healthy." But we'll see. I think Hanley's glory days are over, but I see no reason to think he isn't a .850 ops kind of guy and gets to 4.5-5 WAR which to me is a "top 5" playoff team player. JJ, I think he'll be ok. We all like to bash the Marlins conditioning, but they have resurrected Nolasco and Anibal these past 3 seasons which I think they deserve some credit for. Maybe I am optimistic to a fault, but injuries happen and these guys are to good not to put it back together. I would love them to not be a "crapshoot," but injuries are apart of the sport. Ellsbury was a crapshoot before this season too.

As for Stanton, come on. I get that you want to see another year, but come on.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm not sure what you're going for there...

He's had interviews on FSN, with the 790 people where (paraphrasing) he's repeatedly said "well, that's a little too money ball for us" in context of players hitting higher in the order based on their OBP.

Are you really trying to imply that he "gets it" with OBP based simply on players who are in the lineup and walk, organizational philosophy be damned?

You can't say he "outwardly discredits OBP" if he acquires or develops players with good on base skills. Sure, he still emphasizes speed at the top of the order, which means he's the same as more than half of the league, I would say.

I don't think he "gets it," in as much as I don't see him ever having Lomo and Gaby at the top of the order. But even a team like the Red Sox that everyone can agree "gets it" was looking to come into the season with a 1-2 at the top of the lineup who carried .339 and .337 career OBPs in to the season because they are fast.

If "getting it" regarding OBP means always prioritizing OBP at the top of the lineup, I think a lot fewer teams "get it" around baseball than you think.

And, for what it's worth, we've gotten above average OBP production from the #1 spot in our lineup and essentially average from #2, based on NL averages. I don't think he's as close minded as you imply.

I think, too often, you judge on an absolute scale and not a relative scale. On an absolute scale, I would love a GM who understands sabermetrics and eschews traditional thinking; unfortunately, most GMs don't, and Beinfest is simply one of those GMs. He's not great, he's not horrible. He does some good things, he does some bad things. I think making it either extreme is silly. Some GMs are better, some are worse.
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Personally, I don't think there's some vast chasm in skill between GMs around baseball. They're mostly working from the same set of facts and assumptions, and a lot of who is a "good" GM is who gets lucky that their 13th round pick becomes Albert Pujols, who gets unlucky that their first round pick is addicted to heroin, and who gets lucky that the former heroin addict becomes an MVP after they sign him for cheap.

If we had a different GM, maybe they get a better return on a few trades. But maybe they don't get Ricky Nolasco for Juan Pierre, or maybe they don't find Cody Ross, Jorge Cantu, and Dan Uggla?

I think the difference between Beinfest and most GMs would not be a massive difference over his time here.

I buy the argument for new blood and a new approach; all people get stuck in their views points, have their biases, and I think turnover can be a good thing. Getting a new pair of eyes and a new perspective on things can be a very good thing when you've gone stagnant. The Marlins have gone stagnant; I don't think it's hopeless, but I do think some fresh thinking could help.

I don't buy the one that says we'd be significantly better if only we had some other GM over the last 8 years.

[emkayseven]

I don't say this often but: what bobbob just said