Mega Blockbuster Near: Halladay to Phils, Lee to M's, Stuff to Jays

[Party]

Link?

[BigGameFish]

This doesn't make the Phillies "better" but it sure as fuck locks up the division for them now.

The more I thought about it, the more this is really just them keeping Halladay away from the Mets. As soon as Lackey signed with Boston, you could almost hear Halladay's introductory press conference with the Mets. The Yankees were only interested so long as their offer was good enough to keep Halladay out of Boston, the Angels were never really in, and the Dodgers ownership situation precluded what should have been the best fit. The Mets would have Santana'd him and really been the most legitimate threat to the Phillies in 2010; now the Phillies went from being the class of the division that will likely finish 6 games up on the 2nd place club to the class of the division that maybe finishes 7 games up on the 2nd place club, all the while ensuring that the greatest threat to their division title (a Santana/Halladay led Mets club) didn't get a chance to even get out of the gate.

So they make adeal to achieve the same result they were already going to achieve? To win the division by one more game? Guess winning by 6 games isnt "locking up" a division. And if they have to give up any more of their rotation I dont see how this is a good deal for the Phillies for next year. Obviously getting Halladay is great but its all relative to the situation.

[FishFanInPA]

Link?

http://www.philaphans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92008

Nevermind, it's from July and ever since they started trying to get him. Still kinda impressive.

[BigGameFish]

You find a few one year deal guys. It's not as if they're tossing away irreplaceable production. I also have my doubts the deal is that heavy from the major league roster, I think it'll end up being one of Blanton or Happ, and Drabek, but not both of them and Drabek.

Here's the other thing, have you looked at this division? It's putrid. When you can make a reasonable case that you have 3 of the 5 best players in the division, and almost certainly the best pitcher (Hanley, Halladay, Johan, Utley, Howard), does it really make a difference? Maybe they don't stand up as a deep and intimidating playoff team, but they're going to just run wild over the 162 schedule with a top heavy roster like that.

You just said they will only win one more game, now they are going to run wild?

[Ramp]

so apparently Aumont is going to end up in Philly
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Phils get $6M from Jays in Halladay deal. Drabek, Taylor, likely D'Arnaud to TOR, Aumont, Gillies and 3rd player to PHI...

[nny]

This isn't a deal made for next year. It's a long term made deal. Holliday will sign, and sign cheaply. Lee won't.

[Swifty]

You just said they will only win one more game, now they are going to run wild?

You either don't like reading paragraphs or don't like conclusions.

This is a great deal for the Phillies because: it keeps Halladay off the Mets (which is where I would have bet he'd end up after the Sox signed Lackey).

The Phillies were going to be good next year with Lee, they're now going to be good with Halladay. The moderate improvement to their 2010 wins factors in a full season of Halladay over a full season of Lee. They won 93 games with half a season of Lee. Now they get a full season of Halladay.

This is not very hard to understand.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

I don't know what to believe about the prospects. For a suposedly done deal, Jayson Stark has changed the prospects around about 5 times. I also don't know why Aumont would go to Philly. Supposedly, Toronto wants him bad because their GM is trying to get as many Canadians on his team as possible (Aumont is Canadian). That doesn't make sense if he goes to Philly and Toronto gets three Americans. :/

[Swifty]

Don't think of it as a three teamer think of it as two separate trades.

The Phillies trade their guys for Halladay.

They then trade Lee for the Mariners' prospects.

With the kickback the Phillies are getting from the Jays (reportedly) you almost wonder why they don't just go for it really effing hard in 2010 and let Lee walk for the picks after they win the 2010 World Series.

[BigGameFish]

This isn't a deal made for next year. It's a long term made deal. Holliday will sign, and sign cheaply. Lee won't.

I know it is, the deal is all about contracts. So it may make them a contender for longer, assuming they wouldnt have inked Lee, but how much better does it make them is my point.
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You either don't like reading paragraphs or don't like conclusions.

This is a great deal for the Phillies because: it keeps Halladay off the Mets (which is where I would have bet he'd end up after the Sox signed Lackey).

The Phillies were going to be good next year with Lee, they're now going to be good with Halladay. The moderate improvement to their 2010 wins factors in a full season of Halladay over a full season of Lee. They won 93 games with half a season of Lee. Now they get a full season of Halladay.

This is not very hard to understand.

I just dont like conclusions in paragraph form....

They won 93 games with a half season of Lee, LAST YEAR. So, NEXT YEAR, they would have had a FULL YEAR of Cliff Lee. I am comparing a FULL YEAR of Cliff Lee with a FULL YEAR of Roy Halladay. That total, according to fangraphs.com statistics, is less than 1 win.

This is not very hard to understand.


Now if you look at it from a long-term perspective, if the Phillies were unwilling to pay Lee what he was asking then the deal is good for them and the years beyond next season. With all that being said I doubt Phili would let Cliff Lee slip away if they somehow didnt land Roy.

[emkayseven]

I think the M's make out like bandits here. Aumont isn't terribly impressive and they get a true ace to pair up with Felix for 8 million this year. And I'd take Felix/Lee over Halladay/Hamels any day.

I think the upgrade of Halladay over Lee is marginal at best like BGF said. They were a great team with Lee, they'll be a great team with Halladay, maybe 1 win more. And I'm not going to assume if they didn't get him he was going to the Mets. Maybe he would have but I can't rationalize the fact that getting him makes them 7 games better or whatever because the Mets MIGHT have gotten him and been a threat to the Phillies. Even with a healthy Johan/Halladay the Mets offense is putrid, even if Wright finds his power again and they overpay for Jason Bay's decline years.

And of course this is all ignoring that the Mets were never real contenders for Halladay according to most sources. First, I don't think they ever had an attractive package to put together because their prospects are shit. Ricciardi in July asked for "top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, young pitchers Bobby Parnell and Jon Niese and shortstop prospect Ruben Tejada" and the Mets turned it down. I know everyone has had a hard on for Martinez because he's so young, but the fact remains that he has never gotten on base, and for all his projectable power he's never shown that either. He had almost 100 at bats in the MLB last year (yes, as a 20 year old, who cares) and absolutely shit the bed. Parnell is a career 4 ERA/1.40 WHIP in the minors with an ERA over 5 in about 75 MLB games. He turned 25 last season. Bottom line is he's a 4/5 starter at best, probably a middle reliever/7th inning guy. Niese had a pretty decent minor league career and just turned 23. His best case scenario is as a 3 starter if he can keep his hits down (1H/IP in the minors) - you basically hope he's a good learner and can maybe turn into a 2 starter for you, but most agree his projection is as a middle rotation guy. Then you've got Ruben Tejada. 20 year old shortstop. OPSed .732 in AA as a 19 year old a year after OPSing .589 in High A as an 18 year old. He's been compared to at best a Cesar Izturis type, not a starter but a solid reserve.

Second,

"Halladay wasn't going to the Mets," the GM said. "His people were letting everyone know he was only going to a winner - the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, or maybe the Angels, although he wanted to be in the East because he lives in Florida.

"The problem for the Mets is that after everything that happened to them last year - the injuries, the record, the front office controversies - they're just not very appealing to star players who have choices."

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...#ixzz0ZlNUaOMK

What do we take from this? Everyone knew he wasn't going to the Mets, including the Mets. They aren't going to pay 2 pitchers north of 100 million a piece when their owner has lost a shit ton of money to Madoff, when they've seen how having expensive payers does nothing if you have injuries, and when they - and everyone else - knew that they'd have to pay Halladay MORE than Santana to sign. The fact that they turned down that offer in July that involves 2 low range prospects, one "projectable" mid-range prospect and a current 4 starter with a 3 starter ceiling tells me that they either KNEW they had no chance of Halladay agreeing to a trade to New York and wanted to save face so the media wouldn't say "look, he doesn't even want to play for the Mets," or they KNEW that if he agreed to it they'd have to pony up $150 mil to get him to stay.

Bottom line is the Phillies did this to set themself up better for the future because they knew Lee was gonna get paid and probably leave Philly. Now they have a pitcher for an extra 3 years. It didn't have dick to do with keeping him away from the Mets because he was never going to the Mets. MAYBE they think it makes them significantly better this year, but as much as I hate that team pretty smart people run that front office and I think they know that Halladay gives them maybe an extra win, and in our division the marginal cost of a win is super low because the division sucks so much. They didn't need that extra win of Halladay over Lee this year. They needed the extra 20 wins of Halladay over a replacement player the following three years.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Roy Halladay and the Phillies have come to an agreement on a contract that would put in motion a three-team trade that would send the Toronto Blue Jays ace to Philadelphia, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.

Halladay was taking his physical Tuesday morning, sources said.

The status of the other portions of a companion deal that would include the Seattle Mariners, however, is still uncertain at this point.

As of early Tuesday morning, the Phillies were to send their Cy Young Award winner, Cliff Lee, to Seattle, in exchange for pitching prospect Phillippe Aumont and outfielder prospect Tyson Gillies, sources told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

In addition, ProspectInsider.com reported that the Phillies would get a third Mariners prospect, right-hander Juan Ramirez.

The Phillies were to send outfielder Michael Taylor, catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud and pitcher Kyle Drabek to Toronto, sources told ESPN.com.

The Blue Jays, as part of the Halladay deal, would fork over $6 million to the Phillies, according to CSNPhilly.com.

On Tuesday, sources said the Blue Jays would take Taylor and trade him to Oakland for Brett Wallace, the corner infielder and former No. 1 pick whom the Athletics got in the Matt Holliday trade in July.

The plot thickens. Why Oakland is getting involved is beyond me. Wallace was their prime target in the Holliday deal. Why would they swap him for another prospect 6 months later?

[BigGameFish]

A great point brought up by Timmy Kurkjian last night, the Phillies have given up 7 of their top prospects in these two deals (for Lee and now for Halladay). If they arent recieving any great young players in this deal they have basically depleted their young talent for a marginal boost to their wins. Doesnt make much sense but I guess I should look at the minor league players involved before I pass judgement.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

A great point brought up by Timmy Kurkjian last night, the Phillies have given up 7 of their top prospects in these two deals (for Lee and now for Halladay). If they arent recieving any great young players in this deal they have basically depleted their young talent for a marginal boost to their wins. Doesnt make much sense but I guess I should look at the minor league players involved before I pass judgement.

From what Rob Neyer said on ESPN, the Mariniers prospects the Phillies would be getting are "good not great". So the Phillies send their currently ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th best prospects for Halladay and 3 guys that don't sound like they are as good.
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Here's Neyer's exact quote.

This is, quite frankly, a heist. The Mariners are getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher for some decent-but-not-great prospects. They aren’t giving up Morrow. They aren’t giving up Saunders. They aren’t even giving up Triunfel. And yet, they walk away with one of the five or six best pitchers in baseball.

[Metes]

Well quite simply, you aren't going to get top talent in return for Lee. You're getting him for one year, after which he plans to go FA or at least get a market value contract. Decent specs are about all you're gonna get.

Further, I'll say it right now, Halladay is better than Lee. His pedigree is higher and he's more dominant. I'd take him over Lee any day. Plus when you factor in the ability to get a favorable long-term deal, that's a no-brainer to me.