September 2019 Game Thread

[lou]

Berti is the UT guy next year with Rojas as SS. Riddle is ? and Jazz is in AAA. Once Jazz is up then Rojas goes to UT role. 2/10 million is a GREAT contract

Berti is pacing as a 3+ WAR player right now, so you may have to start him if this keeps up. His BABIP is a little bit high so he'll probably settle into a UT role longterm (if at all), but I can see many lineup permutations moving Anderson, Rojas, and Berti all over the place. Someone can play in LF/RF. Not a bad thing.

I think my preferred position player opening day is (assuming won't get Rendon):

Alfaro, Don't care who is backup
Cooper, Neil Walker or some similar cheaper veteran
Diaz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Another cheap backup veteran IF
Ramirez
Sierra, Brinson
Castellanos < - Don't want to hear it he isn't good. He isn't atrocious in RF (same as Puig and Conforto this year, better than Meadows) and hits the shit out of the ball. DH is probably coming to NL in 22 too. Sierra and Brinson should be plus defensively in CF.

Anderson, Berti, and Cooper can play in the OF here and there until Monte and Lewin (pushing Cooper LF over half the time) show up in June/July.

Riddle is also a release. He is not a top 40 player that needs to be protected.

[Lee Stone]

Lou! The team you listed for next season just lost over 100 games this year. That dog just won't hunt. I realize you see them as holding down the fort for "promising" prospects, but I'd call that lineup a white flag surrender.

CF Predict Monte Harrison as opening day starter/fan pleaser. Brinson has gotta be history - I don't even like his defense.

Ramirez doesn't look like an everyday player to me. He won't take a walk.

Isan Diaz is barely hitting a buck off lefties. I see him as a platoon player at this point. That's not to say he's hitting righties all that well either.

Can't envision Castellanos in a Marlin jersey.

[fauowls44]

Lou! The team you listed for next season just lost over 100 games this year. That dog just won't hunt. I realize you see them as holding down the fort for "promising" prospects, but I'd call that lineup a white flag surrender.

CF Predict Monte Harrison as opening day starter/fan pleaser. Brinson has gotta be history - I don't even like his defense.

Ramirez doesn't look like an everyday player to me. He won't take a walk.

Isan Diaz is barely hitting a buck off lefties. I see him as a platoon player at this point. That's not to say he's hitting righties all that well either.

Can't envision Castellanos in a Marlin jersey.

You are writing off Isan Diaz already?!? He had a OPS of .808 off lefties in AAA. He's had all of 33 MLB at bats against lefties....give him some time. Calling him a platoon player off that is silly. He just turned 23. He'll be fine.

[lou]

Lou! The team you listed for next season just lost over 100 games this year. That dog just won't hunt. I realize you see them as holding down the fort for "promising" prospects, but I'd call that lineup a white flag surrender.

CF Predict Monte Harrison as opening day starter/fan pleaser. Brinson has gotta be history - I don't even like his defense.

Ramirez doesn't look like an everyday player to me. He won't take a walk.

Isan Diaz is barely hitting a buck off lefties. I see him as a platoon player at this point. That's not to say he's hitting righties all that well either.

Can't envision Castellanos in a Marlin jersey.

I did?

Granderson, Prado, Riddle, Dean, Herrera, Rivera, O'Brien, and Galloway - Negative 5.4 WAR. Brinson stinks, and maybe he is terrible in spring training. If you want to sub in a short term veteran (Maybin?) to help Sierra out there until Monte shows up, sure. I can buy that. Brinson won't be allowed to get to -1.2 WAR again is the point here.

Given that I think we will see positive contributions from that list above, this is a 7-10 win improvement just not playing total assholes. I don't think my list above falls into the 57 year old Granderson and Prado range, and total AAA players with limited upside. Someone like Castellanos bumps that another 2-3 easily. I also expect pitching growth. I can see Sandy and Pablo taking steps forward, and the bullpen not being as atrocious as the reinforcements start showing up. You can see them adding a few more wins there. Then there is the promise in Sixto, Lewin, Monte, Neidert, and Guzman (I think they are coming up June/July), and maybe Sanchez or Jazz proves ready quicker.

Are they going to win 81? Nope. But I can see a 70 win season with these guys, and still maintaining a low ass payroll (with or without a guy like Castellanos), and that much closer to Sanchez/Jazz/Bleday coming up. I can't join fish16 in the total optimism, but I think Anderson, Sandy, Pablo, Caleb, Alfaro, Garcia, and Cooper are longterm pieces and they will be adding a few more by this time next year.

- - - - - - - - - -

You are writing off Isan Diaz already?!? He had a OPS of .808 off lefties in AAA. He's had all of 33 MLB at bats against lefties....give him some time. Calling him a platoon player off that is silly. He just turned 23. He'll be fine.

Don't forget the .229 BABIP and 9.9% walk rate.

He's fine.

I'm also 100% OK if all he does is mash RHP and the Marlins have to play a backup, right handed, 2B 35+ games a year. Sign me up.

[Namaste]

Can Jose Ureńa please not be our closer next year please?

[Lee Stone]

I would certainly consider trying to work Jarlin Garcia as a starter again.

[fish16]

sierra should be the starting CF next year.

[tjfla]

I would certainly consider trying to work Jarlin Garcia as a starter again.

Ya we need more SP. Only have 14 on 40 man roster

- - - - - - - - - -

sierra should be the starting CF next year.

But he needs more time in minors!!

[fish16]

who said he needs more time in the minors?

[Lee Stone]

sierra should be the starting CF next year.

Monte Harrison performed a lot better at New Orleans than Sierra did this year. He brings a lot more to the table. Sierra as a 5th OF would be okay. His on base percentage is way too low for a regular.

- - - - - - - - - -

Ya we need more SP. Only have 14 on 40 man roster

- - - - - - - - - -



But he needs more time in minors!!

The only lefties are Rogers and Garrett (other than C Smith). Both are at least a year of development away. Garcia began as a starter, did very well, then had problems and went to pen. After problems there, he went back to the minors. I see no reason for him to be pigeonholed as a relief pitcher at this point.

[Nick]

who said he needs more time in the minors?

I did, the dude had a .316 OBP between AA and AAA this year.

- - - - - - - - - -

Monte Harrison performed a lot better at New Orleans than Sierra did this year. He brings a lot more to the table. Sierra as a 5th OF would be okay. His on base percentage is way too low for a regular.

I'm with the guy who isn't overreacting based on Sierra's last 40 ABs.

That being said Sierra should probably get the CF ABs until Harrison is ready.

[lou]

Monte Harrison performed a lot better at New Orleans than Sierra did this year. He brings a lot more to the table. Sierra as a 5th OF would be okay. His on base percentage is way too low for a regular.

Bader .209/.319/.364, neutral base running, and has a 1.6 WAR in in 377 PA. (2.5+ WAR pace).
Dyson .235/.316/.326, totally insane awesome base running, and a 1.4 WAR in 432 PA. (1.9+ WAR pace)
Kiermaier .227/.274/.394, well above average base running, and a 1.3 WAR in 461 PA. (1.7+ WAR pace)
Deshields .248/.328/.343, well above average base running, and a .9 WAR in 386 PA. (1.4+ WAR pace)

I think you give Sierra a shot to do this. He was touted to have gold glove upside and if he has that, he's turning into an OK stopgap starter/premium backup just like these guys. Also fine if he is the 4th/5th OF next year. He doesn't need to hit much to be useful and they can figure out what they have.

I don't know how many times we have to go over financial aspects of baseball are real and keeping Monte down until June saves the organization multi-millions of dollars if he makes it as a player. You're not calling these guys up in non-contending years. Also, Sierra is out of options, Monte has options, Monte has 250 PA in AAA. Sierra has 900 in AAA/MLB. Monte needs some more time down there to build off 2019. Sierra is sink or swim.

Unless Sierra goes all Juan Pierre in his prime on us, he won't be blocking a performing Monte in June. Personally, I think I am making CF Sierra's job to lose in spring training. I'd rather give him the 3 months, versus spending anything on someone like Cam Maybin. If Sierra sucks? This probably fixes itself with Monte, or a signing/trade for 2021. They have PA to give in 2020 and Sierra is a fine upside gamble. He was a FV50 prospect in 2018 before he graduated. He's 24 next year.

The real OF debate is Brinson. Do you give him an opportunity or not? That is a much harder question giving up on the pedigree and admitting how bad the Yelich trade was.

- - - - - - - - - -

That being said Sierra should probably get the CF ABs until Harrison is ready.

That's all I'm saying. When your competition is likely some sort of FA or Anderson, Berti (I guess), H. Ramirez, Dean, and Brinson, I'm not sure how anyone doesn't put Sierra 2-3 on that list as most probable of providing the organization longterm value.

Just let him play and pray for the defense. 2020 is still a try out until the Super2 deadline passes and then jobs start getting competitive.

[Lee Stone]

When your competition is likely some sort of FA or Anderson, Berti (I guess), H. Ramirez, Dean, and Brinson, I'm not sure how anyone doesn't put Sierra 2-3 on that list as most probable of providing the organization longterm value.

I guess everyone sees things differently. For me, Sierra is a clear #5 out of that group, ahead of only Brinson. Over nearly a full season at AAA, Sierra's OBP was barely .300. Dean should have been the left fielder from day one this season instead of giving time to Granderson. Had his leash been as long as Brinson's, I think the team would have been rewarded.

[lou]

When your competition is likely some sort of FA or Anderson, Berti (I guess), H. Ramirez, Dean, and Brinson, I'm not sure how anyone doesn't put Sierra 2-3 on that list as most probable of providing the organization longterm value.

I guess everyone sees things differently. For me, Sierra is a clear #5 out of that group, ahead of only Brinson. Over nearly a full season at AAA, Sierra's OBP was barely .300. Dean should have been the left fielder from day one this season instead of giving time to Granderson. Had his leash been as long as Brinson's, I think the team would have been rewarded.

I agree with you with Granderson and Prado for sure.

But you take Sierra's defensive upside everyday over Dean and Ramirez though, and probably Brinson's overall "sucks" performance at this point. Berti is interesting as maybe his infield flexibility is more valuable among bench-types, but I'm still going Sierra because of his age and 2 potentially superior skills (defense, base running). Any sort of slap hitting and he's Dyson or DeShields or Hamilton, etc. Those guys are really positive contributors over their careers.

[lou]

Speaking of that, we're seeing the writing on the wall with Berti playing CF tonight and Brinson in RF.

Brinson is also really horrible.

- - - - - - - - - -

Alfaro is not really horrible