July 2019 Game Thread

[tjfla]

Should say thanks to NYM.

TB was talking Wheeler/Diaz with NYM offering Jesus. NYM wanted more to which TB said NO and switched to us like 15 mins before the deadline

Before the Gallen trade TB/NYM/Mia also were talking 3 way with us getting Gimenez(NYM SS) and more.Anderson,Richards,Caleb.Walker were supposed in deal to whom not sure

Also Miami thought had deals for Castro(SF) and Neil Walker(TB/NYM) so they called up Berti but both deals fell thru. SF went with Scooter

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Wait Luis gohara got dfa? He was a top 100 prospect like a year ago. Go get him

Yep Gohara got DFA(Out for year with shoulder) and Oscar De La Cruz who is a RP now but was a Top SP Prospect(got PED ban) got DFA too

Question is can teams still do trades or not? If no Miami should jump on them and any other NL DFA

[fish16]

I was taking the bar yesterday so I’m just catching up on our moves, but I love how they are trading from their pitching depth for good long term bats. Makes me think they know which 6-8 guys they want to be in the rotation long term and everyone else is expendable. Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Caleb Smith, Lopez, alxantara, Yamamoto. I’d be fine with that long term and then signing a guy like Cole this offseason to put that over the top. But getting Jesus Sanchez and jazz while their value is slightly lower is just a phenomenal move. Sucks to see gallen go but this was what we have been talking about for 2 years now. We’re trading our pitching depth for some good long term hitting

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The value they were able to get out of Anderson is insanity. They also traded Richards but they essentially just turned Brian schales into Jesus Sanchez in like 6 months.

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We could legit have 8+ top 100 guys before some of them start to graduate. Sixto, bleday, Jazz, Sanchez, Garrett, Cabrera, Diaz, Rogers, monte

[tjfla]

I was taking the bar yesterday so I’m just catching up on our moves, but I love how they are trading from their pitching depth for good long term bats. Makes me think they know which 6-8 guys they want to be in the rotation long term and everyone else is expendable. Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Caleb Smith, Lopez, alxantara, Yamamoto. I’d be fine with that long term and then signing a guy like Cole this offseason to put that over the top. But getting Jesus Sanchez and jazz while their value is slightly lower is just a phenomenal move. Sucks to see gallen go but this was what we have been talking about for 2 years now. We’re trading our pitching depth for some good long term hitting

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The value they were able to get out of Anderson is insanity. They also traded Richards but they essentially just turned Brian schales into Jesus Sanchez in like 6 months.

Not to sure about Caleb. They were willing to deal him they just couldnt get what they wanted-if St Louis would have or still offered Gorman and more I heard they would do something. Same with Milwaukee if they could have gotten a guy they loved they would have traded him there-Milwaukee offered us Dubon and more which we liked for RICHARDS

Like mentioned yesterday about Anderson-they were willing to deal him for 2 reasons. AGE and they thought they had tons of RP options for 2020 already. They feel the same about Caleb

Urena is gonna be the interesting name to watch over next few months. They have to decide if they want him as a CL or trade him for a package to a team who doesn't wanna spend 10+ million on an arm

[fish16]

I honestly completely forgot we still had urena

[tjfla]

Diaz/Monte will graduate but we will be have Top 3-5 pick and depending on FA who got BPA draft again

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I could see Oakland making a play for Caleb or Urena and Brice over offseason. TB/Clev/NYY likes Caleb and Urena as well

Not saying it will happen but watch St Louis and Cleveland if Caleb is discussed in Winter Meetings.
St Louis-Gorman and more
Cleveland-Nolan Jones and more

Both are LHB 3B -make BA the super UT RHB(1B,2B,3B,LF,RF) in 2021

FA arms are gonna be fun to watch because if u cant afford the dollars u can get a Caleb Smith or Urena for alot cheaper(money wise)

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Kyle Keller is up(Arm they wanted to get a look at) but still need a SP. Noesi? Poteet?

Forgot to mention Marlins had a deal with Cubs for Conley but last minute they decided to go with Edwards Jr to SD for LHR

[fish16]

I also think they are gonna be a little short sighted and start sixto in the rotation to start next year. Hopefully not. This is starting to get super exciting now. We have a top 5 farm, a completely empty long term salary outlook, and a really good sp outlook. If they would be willing to spend the money on Cole I think it really would make sense to then flip Caleb for a huge haul of hitting prospects if they don’t like the limited free agent bats this offseason

[Lee Stone]

I was taking the bar yesterday so I’m just catching up on our moves, but I love how they are trading from their pitching depth for good long term bats. Makes me think they know which 6-8 guys they want to be in the rotation long term and everyone else is expendable. Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Caleb Smith, Lopez, alxantara, Yamamoto. I’d be fine with that long term and then signing a guy like Cole this offseason to put that over the top. But getting Jesus Sanchez and jazz while their value is slightly lower is just a phenomenal move. Sucks to see gallen go but this was what we have been talking about for 2 years now. We’re trading our pitching depth for some good long term hitting

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The value they were able to get out of Anderson is insanity. They also traded Richards but they essentially just turned Brian schales into Jesus Sanchez in like 6 months.

Good luck with the bar. Here's your first case to argue: Schales vs. Sanchez. Brian had a better OPS in AA Southern League last year (and this year) than Jesus did. Other than citing baseless prospect rating by whoever, what's the case for Sanchez being some miraculous upgrade?

[Nick]

Good Lord.

[fish16]

Well to start your premise that the prospect ratings are baseless is flat out wrong.

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I would have been cool with Sanchez being the best piece in a realmuto deal and we got him for 2 relievers. Although Richards and Anderson are gonna be two great bullpen pieces for them

[Lee Stone]

Good Lord.

Can you make a case, Nick?

[fish16]

3b is now the only position in the entire system that we don’t have a really good long term prospect at. They had a head start with the guys they dealt but the front office has done an unbelievable job rebuilding a system that was truly horrendous. Phase 1 of the rebuild is over and now they need to reinvest some of the money in 2 big time free agents. I don’t think the bats will be ready to compete next year but 2021 I think we are a legit contender

[Lee Stone]

Well to start your premise that the prospect ratings are baseless is flat out wrong.

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I would have been cool with Sanchez being the best piece in a realmuto deal and we got him for 2 relievers. Although Richards and Anderson are gonna be two great bullpen pieces for them

Why did TB, the team that knew him best, so readily cut him loose? As I recall Realmuto negotiations, Sanchez was a given (from TB). Discussion broke down over the additional pieces.

[fish16]

Why did TB, the team that knew him best, so readily cut him loose? As I recall Realmuto negotiations, Sanchez was a given (from TB). Discussion broke down over the additional pieces.

Because they were trying to make a run this year

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We have a pretty ridiculous group of of’s In the system now.

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Wait I’m still catching up. How the hell did the Astros get Greinke without giving up tucker???

[Nick]

Can you make a case, Nick?

How can you argue against a guy that says prospect lists and scouting are baseless. How can you argue with someone that gives no consideration to age and how that correlates to what level they're at, and how that player will develop?

Still even from the Lee Stone school of prospect evaluation I don't see how you could argue that Schales is better than Jesus Sanchez. Brian Schales .658 OPS in 1924 ABs in the minors. Plus what we all know is most important .476 OPS in 59 ABs at AAA right now. Jesus Sanchez .801 OPS in 1734 minor league ABs. .599 OPS in 63 ABs at AAA.

[lou]

I won't post the long version, but the Marlins probably traded away $200-250 million in surplus value with Gallen, Anderson, Richards, Vallimont, and a FV40 prospect PTBNL. The $50 million discrepancy is if you think Gallen or Richards becomes a consistent 3 WAR guy, and I'm projecting the under on Gallen to a respectable 2.5 WARish guy and I'm not giving Richards a 2 as he's probably a "bulk reliever." This is actually pretty scary as that's around what Yelich was worth at the time of trade.

Based on the trade chart, the Marlins likely undersold. They probably only got like $125 million in prospect value (i.e., the average of what a FV55 prospect brings, etc.)

Let's say Jazz, Sanchez, Diaz, and Stanek produce 6 WAR a year for 6 years. Which is pretty fucking low. You're getting to $250 million in surplus easy. There is risk involved here, but they are going to blow this away if Jazz becomes a 3+ WAR guy and Sanchez/Diaz moderately bash. You're also delaying spending some payroll for 3 years as the guys they traded are arbitration 21-23 guys and the new guys guys will be 24/25.

Of course, they did this same math with Brinson, Monte, Diaz and Yamamoto, and I'm not sure we're getting 6 WAR a year with them to get to a break even. But hopefully this one works out better. And hopefully Diaz and Monte turn the former one into a tire fire besides the end of times.

I'd still do all the 2019 moves. Shoot for the moon.

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How can you argue against a guy that says prospect lists and scouting are baseless. How can you argue with someone that gives no consideration to age and how that correlates to what level they're at, and how that player will develop?

Still even from the Lee Stone school of prospect evaluation I don't see how you could argue that Schales is better than Jesus Sanchez. Brian Schales .658 OPS in 1924 ABs in the minors. Plus what we all know is most important .476 OPS in 59 ABs at AAA right now. Jesus Sanchez .801 OPS in 1734 minor league ABs. .599 OPS in 63 ABs at AAA.

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