July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

that was 3 pathetic ab's. I'd be cool with DFA'ing Starlin just so i never have to see him at the plate again. He's been fucking awful all year long.

[Namaste]

They did it. I could have hit a fucking fly ball there, Castro

[Nick]

I can't believe no one took Walker, we couldn't have been asking for more than a team's 50th best prospect, and he's a decent bench bat with some versatility. Whatever.

Jon Berti, not great, but certainly better than Rivera and Herrera.

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Jeff Brigham may have just become a big leaguer right there.

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WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HAROLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hard not to root for Harold Ramirez, seems like a great dude.

[Erick]

I’ve always liked Brigham’s stuff.

[tjfla]

I won't post the long version, but the Marlins probably traded away $200-250 million in surplus value with Gallen, Anderson, Richards, Vallimont, and a FV40 prospect PTBNL. The $50 million discrepancy is if you think Gallen or Richards becomes a consistent 3 WAR guy, and I'm projecting the under on Gallen to a respectable 2.5 WARish guy and I'm not giving Richards a 2 as he's probably a "bulk reliever." This is actually pretty scary as that's around what Yelich was worth at the time of trade.

Based on the trade chart, the Marlins likely undersold. They probably only got like $125 million in prospect value (i.e., the average of what a FV55 prospect brings, etc.)

Let's say Jazz, Sanchez, Diaz, and Stanek produce 6 WAR a year for 6 years. Which is pretty fucking low. You're getting to $250 million in surplus easy. There is risk involved here, but they are going to blow this away if Jazz becomes a 3+ WAR guy and Sanchez/Diaz moderately bash. You're also delaying spending some payroll for 3 years as the guys they traded are arbitration 21-23 guys and the new guys guys will be 24/25.

Of course, they did this same math with Brinson, Monte, Diaz and Yamamoto, and I'm not sure we're getting 6 WAR a year with them to get to a break even. But hopefully this one works out better. And hopefully Diaz and Monte turn the former one into a tire fire besides the end of times.

I'd still do all the 2019 moves. Shoot for the moon.

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I love this post

They undersold because they had to get the deal done before the deadline. Wouldn't be surprised to see a minor deal eventually like some non prospect traded to TB for prospect and or IFA $

Mia/TB/NYM were talking all morning about a 3 way which looked something like

Mia-Gimenez,Sanchez,IFA $ and 2 or 3 other minor things
TB-Anderson,Wheeler
NYM-Caleb Smith,Neil Walker

Was more stuff but u all get the idea. Eventually Miami got a deal with Arizona and said we are out. Which left TB and NYM to talk-they talked like 2 hrs with nothing to show. TB called us and we were talking

TB-Anderson,Richards
Mia-Sanchez,2 others and IFA $

They couldn't agree on the others but both teams wanted to get a deal done so they agreed on Stanek

[fish16]

harold ramirez is one of my favorite marlins. His enthusiasm is phenomenal and he busts his ass. he continues to beat out plays at 1st too because he busts his ass every AB.

[tjfla]

What sucked about the deadline is Miami had deals for Castro,Walker,Conley but all the teams too different guys. SF got Scooter,NYM did NOTHING and Cubs got SD LHR

Denbo was trying hard to move them for stuff

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Sanchez was 21 for this entire AA season (since last February). Schales was 22 all of last season in AA. (Actually, coming from the Dominican Republic, who the heck knows how old Sanchez is?) Here's hoping that Jesus Sanchez proves to be a super star; though I'd be inclined to place him at Jacksonville instead of NO for at least the rest of this season.

Should put Jesus Sanchez in Clinton that way when he hits .500 20HR 60 RBI against guys his own age Lee would love him


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A LHR to watch is Alex Vesia. Was promoted to AA today-started year in Clinton and drafted LY

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New levels
Nola-Dylan Lee(Promoted from GCL)
Jax-Vesia(Promoted from Jupiter)
Jupiter-Steck,Twine(demoted from Jax),McKenna(Promoted from GCL)

[lou]

They undersold because they had to get the deal done before the deadline. Wouldn't be surprised to see a minor deal eventually like some non prospect traded to TB for prospect and or IFA $

Mia/TB/NYM were talking all morning about a 3 way which looked something like

Mia-Gimenez,Sanchez,IFA $ and 2 or 3 other minor things
TB-Anderson,Wheeler
NYM-Caleb Smith,Neil Walker

Was more stuff but u all get the idea. Eventually Miami got a deal with Arizona and said we are out. Which left TB and NYM to talk-they talked like 2 hrs with nothing to show. TB called us and we were talking

TB-Anderson,Richards
Mia-Sanchez,2 others and IFA $

They couldn't agree on the others but both teams wanted to get a deal done so they agreed on Stanek

Who are you saying undersold, Tampa?

Also, I'm really glad the marlins didn't send Caleb to the NYM and ended up doing this:

Out - Caleb, Anderson, Walker
In - Gimenez, Sanchez, two dorks, and negligible IFA money

Gimenez is a nice prospect, but Caleb is better than Gallen and Richards (lefties!), and Jazz is better than Gimenez. This is a big win if that was the other permutation.

[lou]

What are these guys going to do next year?

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, ___
Diaz
Rojas, ____
Anderson
Ramirez, Dean
Brinson, Sierra
_____

Urena, Caleb, Pablo, Sandy, Elisier/Yamamoto
Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, ____, _____
Garcia, Conley, Quijada

That’s $40 million bucks and Chen is $16 of that and not even listed.

I mean, who do you sign as you are delaying super 2 status for all your good assets because you’re smart now? In June:

Other 1B is L. Diaz
Other SS is maybe Jazz if he breaks out
Other OF is Monte
Urena traded and Sixto arrives
Neidert is just better than Elisier/Yamamoto more than likely
Cabrera may push out Sandy or a reliever if he’s ready
Guzman pushes out another reliever

Are you really going into next year signing a platoon 1B. SS, OF, and Romo again and just kicking it to the summer?

This timeline is confusing. I think you basically do the above and just add Rendon or Cole and roll out an $80 million team. They have to keep improving and can’t just tank another year right?

[Lee Stone]

Jazz loves the Jumbo Shrimp uniform. 3-4 with triple and homer and 2 RBI. Even his out was loud. He also woke up Lewin Diaz, 2-3 with a homer. Great seven innings from Daniel Castano.

[tjfla]

Who are you saying undersold, Tampa?

Also, I'm really glad the marlins didn't send Caleb to the NYM and ended up doing this:

Out - Caleb, Anderson, Walker
In - Gimenez, Sanchez, two dorks, and negligible IFA money

Gimenez is a nice prospect, but Caleb is better than Gallen and Richards (lefties!), and Jazz is better than Gimenez. This is a big win if that was the other permutation.

Marlins undersold. They probably could have gotten IFA $ and 1 or 2 prospects for TB if the deadline was 5-7 PM. Like said I wouldnt be surprised if Miami/TB make a minor deal eventually-they ran out of time to hammer stuff out so was either do deal they did or do nothing

TB has a tons of guys who need to be on 40 man come Rule 5

Wouldnt have been 2 dorks heard mid level guys but never got names cause deal didnt get close

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What are these guys going to do next year?

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, ___
Diaz
Rojas, ____
Anderson
Ramirez, Dean
Brinson, Sierra
_____

Urena, Caleb, Pablo, Sandy, Elisier/Yamamoto
Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, ____, _____
Garcia, Conley, Quijada

That’s $40 million bucks and Chen is $16 of that and not even listed.

I mean, who do you sign as you are delaying super 2 status for all your good assets because you’re smart now? In June:

Other 1B is L. Diaz
Other SS is maybe Jazz if he breaks out
Other OF is Monte
Urena traded and Sixto arrives
Neidert is just better than Elisier/Yamamoto more than likely
Cabrera may push out Sandy or a reliever if he’s ready
Guzman pushes out another reliever

Are you really going into next year signing a platoon 1B. SS, OF, and Romo again and just kicking it to the summer?

This timeline is confusing. I think you basically do the above and just add Rendon or Cole and roll out an $80 million team. They have to keep improving and can’t just tank another year right?

Sixto,Lewin,Jazz,Stewart,Dylan Lee,Duggar and more all have to be on 40 man

Rule 5 guy or Rule 5 crunch(SD/TB/NYY/LADall have ML guys who they will be looking to trade) and Urena trade will get 1 or 2 pieces

Also u forgot Stanek-RP who will be around till atleast deadline

No "plan" has leaked out yet but very likely we see Lewin,Sixto,Jazz after Super 2 stuff which means sign some FA on cheap and if ready by July trade the FA/Rojas and let young guys play. The 2020 vision was and has been Top 3-10 pick with improvement from 2019 and get guys ready

2019-Top 3 Pick
2020-Top 3-10 Pick
2021-.500+ and have the guys in place

[lou]

Marlins undersold. They probably could have gotten IFA $ and 1 or 2 prospects for TB if the deadline was 5-7 PM. Like said I wouldnt be surprised if Miami/TB make a minor deal eventually-they ran out of time to hammer stuff out so was either do deal they did or do nothing

TB has a tons of guys who need to be on 40 man come Rule 5

Wouldnt have been 2 dorks heard mid level guys but never got names cause deal didnt get close

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Sixto,Lewin,Jazz,Stewart,Dylan Lee,Duggar and more all have to be on 40 man

Rule 5 guy or Rule 5 crunch(SD/TB/NYY/LADall have ML guys who they will be looking to trade) and Urena trade will get 1 or 2 pieces

Also u forgot Stanek-RP who will be around till atleast deadline

No "plan" has leaked out yet but very likely we see Lewin,Sixto,Jazz after Super 2 stuff which means sign some FA on cheap and if ready by July trade the FA/Rojas and let young guys play. The 2020 vision was and has been Top 3-10 pick with improvement from 2019 and get guys ready

2019-Top 3 Pick
2020-Top 3-10 Pick
2021-.500+ and have the guys in place

I think it’s hard to say you undersold on Richards and Anderson when one is practically replaced by Stanek and you got a super high end prospect. Getting the ceiling isn’t an undersell.

And yea forgot Stanek which is great. That staff makes sense but have to see if Brigham and anyone else want to be in the bullpen. They probably need a Romo next year

[fish16]

wow keith law actually had a positive article about the marlins today. that's a first

[lou]

Updated 40 man 2020 projection:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz (1)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Brinson, Sierra, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=14

Maybe - Berti, Riddle, Brigman

Urena, Caleb, Pablo, Sandy, E. Hernandez, Yamamoto, Sixto, Neidert (8)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, Guzman, Holloway, Dugger, Mejia (8)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, W. Stewart (4)
=20

Maybes - Tayron, Milbrath, Poteet, Noesi, Keller, Kinley, C. Smith, Graves, Eveld, Beggs, Chen (lol), Mills, Castano, D. Lee

They’ll need to add a veteran 1B/OF, backup MI (Berti?), and a starting/heavy platoon OF on 1 year deals for 25 man purposes. That’ll get them to the summer for mass call-ups. That’s 37.

That gives them an opportunity to protect another few guys or take a stab at rule V. I just did a quick look at their stats, and Castano actually has pretty low FIPs and that’s interesting as a lefty. A lot of other guys are striking out people like Keller, Milbrath, and Smith, and Poteet and Noesi are holding their own. I can see 1-2 of these guys getting on the 40 man, and maybe some “Schales-Anderson” kind of trades with some of the others ideally for guys that don’t need to be protected.

[Nick]

https://twitter.com/Marlins/status/1157059179791601670

Jeff Brigham threw this pitch yesterday.