July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

Trading for Castellanos now is idiotic unless you're going to resign him for 4+ years. That could be a sneaky good pickup though if the price is right (he's from Davie so maybe?) as he is young and should hit, but he is a truly horrible defender which isn't something the Marlins usually get behind. I'd rather do nothing unless you get a good deal. But, if it's cheap and and it's contingent on him signing a 4-5 year deal for say $12+ millionish a year, sure?

If the bench is Wallach, Walker, Rojas, and Sierra, they sign a real LF/RF to combine with Brinson and H. Ramirez, and Cooper and Anderson can pop out into the OF and let Walker/Rojas start in the infield, I can live with that for sure. That's a good depth chart.

This is legitimately a $75 million payroll - which would rank 28th in baseball in 17, 18, and 19. It's easily lower if you swap Castellanos for Ozuna.

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, Walker
Diaz
Didi, Rojas
Anderson (Walker, Rojas)
H. Ramirez (Cooper)
Brinson, Sierra
Ozuna (Anderson)

Pablo, Caleb, Alcantara, Gallen, Richards/Elisier (AAA-Yamamoto, Neidert)
Anderson, Steckenrider, Brice, Richards/Elisier, Brigham/Guerrero/whoever
Garcia, Conley/whoever, Quijada/whoever

I mean, honestly I'd maybe just add a better LHP pen pitcher (but maybe you get that for Urena?), and if you want to spend money, sign some veteran SP for 2-3 years, don't resign Walker, and trade Gallen/Sandy and get a comparable value young 1B/3B who hopefully becomes a starter and you can sort out that guy, Cooper, and Anderson positions on the fly.

They have so much flexibility they just have to use it.

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I said 5/$85, so your entire analysis is based off your own made up numbers. And 3+ WAR players are worth $17 million a season in modern baseball. Just because the Marlins haven't been in a position to spend that kind of money lately, that is what it is. If Ozuna is 5/$110, no thanks. But he's not going to get there with what Pollock, McCutchen, and Brantley got. He'll get more than them as he's younger, but not double and quadruple more.

See post above where they can pay out $45ish million to Didi, Ozuna, N. Walker, and Rojas and be at $75 million - which is what Marlins payroll is in 2019 - and as shown, payroll is not going up in the next 3 seasons after 2020 based on what's realistically in the pipes and what they can trade. Those guys are off the books by the time it will matter.

And the bold is fundamentally flawed with how the pitching looks and they need to take advantage of this now. The Marlins SP is 7th in ERA - and that's with Urena and Richards who are getting pushed out, and a lot of missed starts with Caleb/Pablo who are their best 2 right now. These guys are collectively going to get better and Sixto is coming.

You're acting like 3+ WAR position players are Heath Bell and John Buck. I'm not sure in what world signing guys between the ages of 29-33 in their prime becomes franchise altering dead money when they can still afford things on top of them if they even move payroll to "10th lowest." With new TV money, theoretically stadium naming rights, more fan involvement so some gate money will have to improve, etc. is coming.

That's my bad i read that post wrong, but that's still too much. The bold is just a bad way of approaching building a team long term. There's a difference between spending money this year to fill holes and locking yourself into spending money for the next 4 years based on the limited group of available free agents in one particular year to fill your current holes. Id prefer even trading from our SP depth for guys under team control before i spend 15+ million for more than 2 years for above average players. Both Ozuna's and Didi's entire career show that they arent great players. They are good players, but they arent franchise cornerstones and i dont give money to above average players for 4 years as they get into their 30s over the course of the deal. Sign guys to 1-2 year deals and save the long term money for guys who actually come available in the next few years whether it is someone like lindor in free agency, who is an actual star, or save your money for a trade for a great player and then extend him. But forcing yourself to fill these long term holes with this limited group of available free agents is just an incredibly short sighted way to approach building your team. In trying to "go for it" next year what you are actually doing is completely fucking your ability to sign actual stars long term in the future.

Its as simple as this- what you are suggesting is an unbelievably inefficient way to get the most value out of the money we are going to spend over the next 4 years. Especially with the type of value you can get out of developing your own players and then having them under team control for 6 years. There is no need to lock yourself into high priced guys who are merely above average. They need to continue building from within and approaching free agency like the rays and a's, both of whom sign guys to big money every once and a while but they dont give out big years. The charlie morton contract is the perfect example of the types of deals we should be giving guys who arent stars.

[lou]

That's my bad i read that post wrong, but that's still too much. The bold is just a bad way of approaching building a team long term. There's a difference between spending money this year to fill holes and locking yourself into spending money for the next 4 years based on the limited group of available free agents in one particular year to fill your current holes. Id prefer even trading from our SP depth for guys under team control before i spend 15+ million for more than 2 years for above average players. Both Ozuna's and Didi's entire career show that they arent great players. They are good players, but they arent franchise cornerstones and i dont give money to above average players for 4 years as they get into their 30s over the course of the deal. Sign guys to 1-2 year deals and save the long term money for guys who actually come available in the next few years whether it is someone like lindor in free agency, who is an actual star, or save your money for a trade for a great player and then extend him. But forcing yourself to fill these long term holes with this limited group of available free agents is just an incredibly short sighted way to approach building your team. In trying to "go for it" next year what you are actually doing is completely fucking your ability to sign actual stars long term in the future.

Its as simple as this- what you are suggesting is an unbelievably inefficient way to get the most value out of the money we are going to spend over the next 4 years. Especially with the type of value you can get out of developing your own players and then having them under team control for 6 years. There is no need to lock yourself into high priced guys who are merely above average. They need to continue building from within and approaching free agency like the rays and a's, both of whom sign guys to big money every once and a while but they dont give out big years. The charlie morton contract is the perfect example of the types of deals we should be giving guys who arent stars.

So your plan is to not show the fan base you care for 2 years with shitty signings of 34 year olds on 1 year deals that do nothing but maybe push them to 80 wins and try and outbid the Yankees or Cubs or LA or even Seattle for a top 10 overall player in Lindor? I'm giving up. They could run a payroll under $110 million (22nd in payroll 2019) with a $30+ million player in 2022, with Ozuna, Didi, and only shedding guys like J. Garcia and E. Hernandez out of the bullpen and Wallach/H. Ramirez off the bench in their arbitration years. Payroll completely opens again in 2024.

You are beyond help in not understanding the Marlins fan base needs to be shown they care, they have TV/Naming/Potential Gate money coming to significantly help, their current overall payroll situation is dramatically different than the Rays with -0- longterm contracts on the book and no need to offer arbitration buyouts for any of these guys, or the value of 3+ WAR position players in their prime years. This is a golden sombrero performance.

[fish16]

So your plan is to not show the fan base you care for 2 years with shitty signings of 34 year olds on 1 year deals that do nothing but maybe push them to 80 wins and try and outbid the Yankees or Cubs or LA or even Seattle for a top 10 overall player in Lindor? I'm giving up. They could run a payroll under $110 million (22nd in payroll 2019) with a $30+ million player in 2022, with Ozuna, Didi, and only shedding guys like J. Garcia and E. Hernandez out of the bullpen and Wallach/H. Ramirez off the bench in their arbitration years. Payroll completely opens again in 2024.

You are beyond help in not understanding the Marlins fan base needs to be shown they care, they have TV/Naming/Potential Gate money coming to significantly help, their current overall payroll situation is dramatically different than the Rays with -0- longterm contracts on the book and no need to offer arbitration buyouts for any of these guys, or the value of 3+ WAR position players in their prime years. This is a golden sombrero performance.

No, my plan is to show the fan base that they arent going to try to make the big splashy move that inefficiently spends a scarce resource all the time rather than continuing to build a sustainable winner that fits the small market franchise we are. Good teams dont run their business to appease the fan base over making smart, long term, sustainable team-building methods. The rays dont make the splashy move and yet they are still good because they understand the market they are in and the way that a team in that market can be consistently successful in terms of getting the most production possible out of their salary limitations, regardless of whether the fan base likes the move. I bet you the same rays fans who shit on their offseason 2 offseasons ago were perfectly fine with it when they ended up winning 90 games because their front office knows how to compete annually under their market contraints.

Especially for a shitty fan base who has proven time and time again in just about every sports franchise down here that they will show up if you win and wont show up if you dont, you dont make moves to appease a fanbase. If it is the right move in terms of smart team building and it happens to appease the fans, fine, but you dont go into an offseason asking how can we get this fanbase excited as a way of developing an offseason strategy.

Approaching the offseason thinking at all about whether this will cause the fan base to get excited for a month is just an awful way to take the next step in a rebuild that has been very positive up until this point. Continue building with smart moves, dont try to pull a loria in 2012 and sign a bunch of above average players to long term deals that fuck future payroll flexibility. This is different from then because Denbo has actually invested in the farm system and we actually have some depth, but it is very similar in that you are signing guys to long term deals who you know arent worth it to make a "Splash." Good teams build their teams in the way that gets the most value (in terms of wins and production) out of every dollar they spend. Bad teams like the mets try to appease their fan base through signing big names for long term deals that actually dont come with the production that matches their name value and the amount you are paying them.

I'm not saying to not spend money. Im saying dont force yourself to spend money on this limited group of free agents simply because they happen to be the particular free agents available this offseason. Aside from Rendon or Cole, none of these guys are stars. You dont go into an offseason saying to yourself that you need to spend this much money and that you will do it no matter what names are available. They can get more value and production out of spreading that cash around on 1-2 year deals without getting in the way of their flexibility to sign actual stars in the future.

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Also, ive been hearing about stadium naming rights for going on 10 years. IF there was any significant market for those naming rights there would have been a sponsor years ago. As for "gate money," idk what else this fan base has to do to show you that you arent getting that gate money no matter what unless you win, and the methods you are suggesting are not an efficient way to spend money to get the winning team you are hoping for. You can spend the money more efficiently while also fielding a winning team and not fucking up future payroll flexibility on merely above average players. That will lead to a better team and in turn the gate money you are craving while also preserving the potential to sign an actual star or to trade for one and then re-sign them.

[Nick]

I say go big or go home. Sign Didi because that's a no-brainer, and then you go all out to sign either Rendon or Cole. Anybody else on the free agent market doesn't move the needle for me. Getting Didi and Rendon/Cole I think makes us possibly an above .500 team even before guys like Sixto and Bleday arrive. Make the right moves to deal pitching for hitting, and you're ready to rock in 2021. If you can't acquire Rendon/Cole, then only acquire Didi for 3-4 years, then you wait until 2022, when the FA market looks to be better, and go all in.

[fish16]

I say go big or go home. Sign Didi because that's a no-brainer, and then you go all out to sign either Rendon or Cole. Anybody else on the free agent market doesn't move the needle for me. Getting Didi and Rendon/Cole I think makes us possibly an above .500 team even before guys like Sixto and Bleday arrive. Make the right moves to deal pitching for hitting, and you're ready to rock in 2021. If you can't acquire Rendon/Cole, then only acquire Didi for 3-4 years, then you wait until 2022, when the FA market looks to be better, and go all in.

Didi isnt a no brainer. For his career he is at an OPS+ of 100. Exactly league average. He has been above league average in terms of OPS+ twice, both as a yankee in a great lineup in the best hitting ballpark in baseball. He's put up an OPS of over .800 just once, despite playing the last 5 years in a great lineup and ballpark. If he puts up the stats he puts up in Yankee stadium here, then sure, but he's not going to do that. You're going to be stuck with an overpaid above average SS who doesnt put up numbers that are anything special. He isnt a top 10 SS and you will be disappointed by his production when he moves from that lineup and stadium to this lineup and stadium. But we can drop it and just wait to see

[Nick]

Didi isnt a no brainer. For his career he is at an OPS+ of 100. Exactly league average. He has been above league average in terms of OPS+ twice, both as a yankee in a great lineup in the best hitting ballpark in baseball. He's put up an OPS of over .800 just once, despite playing the last 5 years in a great lineup and ballpark. If he puts up the stats he puts up in Yankee stadium here, then sure, but he's not going to do that. You're going to be stuck with an overpaid above average SS who doesnt put up numbers that are anything special. He isnt a top 10 SS and you will be disappointed by his production when he moves from that lineup and stadium to this lineup and stadium. But we can drop it and just wait to see

I'm aware we disagree.

[lou]

I'm aware we disagree.

It's cool when he makes these arguments, because Didi is 7th most in SS WAR since 2015, and is ahead of a bunch of guys with more playing time (Segura, Crawford, Semien). But let's look at OPS+ and grasp at straws.... when he had neutral home/away splits for 2017 and 2018 combined rendering his Yankee stadium argument moot.

I hope the Marlins are stuck AF paying an above average SS

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I say go big or go home. Sign Didi because that's a no-brainer, and then you go all out to sign either Rendon or Cole. Anybody else on the free agent market doesn't move the needle for me. Getting Didi and Rendon/Cole I think makes us possibly an above .500 team even before guys like Sixto and Bleday arrive. Make the right moves to deal pitching for hitting, and you're ready to rock in 2021. If you can't acquire Rendon/Cole, then only acquire Didi for 3-4 years, then you wait until 2022, when the FA market looks to be better, and go all in.

Well that's the thing, you can sign both of them (especially if Ozuna/Castellanos with Didi as they are cheaper than Rendon/Cole) and still get another guy in 2022 because your payroll is still crazy cheap. And even cheaper if Cabrera, Garret, Stewart, and Rogers are in fact SP longterm.

[Nick]

It's cool when he makes these arguments, because Didi is 7th most in SS WAR since 2015, and is ahead of a bunch of guys with more playing time (Segura, Crawford, Semien). But let's look at OPS+ and grasp at straws.... when he had neutral home/away splits for 2017 and 2018 combined rendering his Yankee stadium argument moot.

I hope the Marlins are stuck AF paying an above average SS

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Well that's the thing, you can sign both of them (especially if Ozuna/Castellanos with Didi as they are cheaper than Rendon/Cole) and still get another guy in 2022 because your payroll is still crazy cheap. And even cheaper if Cabrera, Garret, Stewart, and Rogers are in fact SP longterm.

I just don't know if I trust Ozuna and Castellanos to still be worth the money by 2022, and I don't think Ozuna or Castellanos making us a 77 win team instead of a 73 win team is going to move the needle as far as the fanbase is concerned, and in all likelihood we could probably find an equivalent guy in trades or even in house in the years leading up to 2022. You do what you can to get into playoff contention, and I don't think Ozuna or Castellanos help that quest much for the next two years. Improving the team in any way that's less than making the playoffs will probably be a waste.

[rmc523]

I just don't know if I trust Ozuna and Castellanos to still be worth the money by 2022, and I don't think Ozuna or Castellanos making us a 77 win team instead of a 73 win team is going to move the needle as far as the fanbase is concerned, and in all likelihood we could probably find an equivalent guy in trades or even in house in the years leading up to 2022. You do what you can to get into playoff contention, and I don't think Ozuna or Castellanos help that quest much for the next two years. Improving the team in any way that's less than making the playoffs will probably be a waste.

Not necessarily advocating signing either of those guys (Castellanos' defensive reputation scares me, especially in our park), but you also have to add pieces in order to even get to the playoffs.

[fish16]

It's cool when he makes these arguments, because Didi is 7th most in SS WAR since 2015, and is ahead of a bunch of guys with more playing time (Segura, Crawford, Semien). But let's look at OPS+ and grasp at straws.... when he had neutral home/away splits for 2017 and 2018 combined rendering his Yankee stadium argument moot.

I hope the Marlins are stuck AF paying an above average SS

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Well that's the thing, you can sign both of them (especially if Ozuna/Castellanos with Didi as they are cheaper than Rendon/Cole) and still get another guy in 2022 because your payroll is still crazy cheap. And even cheaper if Cabrera, Garret, Stewart, and Rogers are in fact SP longterm.

you dont pay for past performance, you pay for future performance. You're not buying the guy who put up those stats in that ballpark in that lineup at age 25-30, you're paying for him in this ballpark surrounded by this lineup in his age 30-33 seasons. He is not a star player and he shouldnt be paid as such. It's a much more efficient use of resources to get a good stop gap SS and spread that money around the rest of the team and try to get a star SS like Lindor in a few years than paying him to be a star player when nothing has indicated that his bat is at all special, and it's not going to get any better with his power numbers inevitably going down here compared to the ballpark and pitches he saw surrounded by that lineup. This team isnt one piece away. If it was that's a different story. But the guy isnt a star, and you'll see that if he changes teams over the next few years.

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His iso numbers by year also indicate his power and as a byproduct a lot of his value is a lot higher in yankee stadium. and he doesnt steal bases so he doesnt produce any value that way. He isnt going to be a top 10 SS over the course of that deal. Trea Turner, Tatis, Correa, Lindor, Bogaerts, Story, Baez , polanco, Swanson, Dejong, Simmons, Seager, and maybe segura are all guys id take over him moving forward over the course of a deal like that. And that doesnt include guys like Rosario and even Adames in TB or any prospects like Wander Franco who should be better than him during that period as well. He's a good player who you guys are overrating simply becuase he happens to be the SS available this year. Forcing yourself to spend money and fill holes based solely off one free agent class is just a terrible way to continue to rebuild a roster that was expensive and bad and necessitated this rebuild in the first place. Im not paying a non top 10 SS big money for 4 years.

[Nick]

Not necessarily advocating signing either of those guys (Castellanos' defensive reputation scares me, especially in our park), but you also have to add pieces in order to even get to the playoffs.

I agree, I'm just saying I don't think those pieces are enough. A premiere bat is needed to get this team to the playoffs, or a rotation so good that a lesser lineup will suffice (A Cole-Sixto-Smith-Pablo-Gallen/Yamamoto rotation or something along those lines Cabrera and Neidert not far behind.)

Get that big piece, whether it be through Free Agency or Trade, then start going after final pieces, and Castellano and Ozuna are more along the lines of "final pieces" in my eyes.

[fish16]

I agree, I'm just saying I don't think those pieces are enough. A premiere bat is needed to get this team to the playoffs, or a rotation so good that a lesser lineup will suffice (A Cole-Sixto-Smith-Pablo-Gallen/Yamamoto rotation or something along those lines Cabrera and Neidert not far behind.)

Get that big piece, whether it be through Free Agency or Trade, then start going after final pieces, and Castellano and Ozuna are more along the lines of "final pieces" in my eyes.

I think we are good on SP without cole, but id also be all about forming a super rotation and just adding him and Sixto on top of whats already in the big leagues plus the other guys still in the minors as well in Garrett, Rogers, and Cabrera. Given our SP surplus, i really want to see what richards and elieser can do in the back end of a bullpen.

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damn that post was before i even looked at cole's stats for this year. Holy shit. Him and Rendon are the 2 guys id throw all the money at and then if we fail on them go after 1-2 year deals and then try again for other stars next year in free agency. Cole has a 170/30 K/BB ratio at the allstar break in just 116 innings. Good god that is insane. And he's not even their best starter which is the funniest/scariest part.

[rmc523]

I agree, I'm just saying I don't think those pieces are enough. A premiere bat is needed to get this team to the playoffs, or a rotation so good that a lesser lineup will suffice (A Cole-Sixto-Smith-Pablo-Gallen/Yamamoto rotation or something along those lines Cabrera and Neidert not far behind.)

Get that big piece, whether it be through Free Agency or Trade, then start going after final pieces, and Castellano and Ozuna are more along the lines of "final pieces" in my eyes.

I agree they're not enough either. Was just saying they'd be pieces that add to the puzzle. Not the full picture, but you wouldn't be able to "finish" the puzzle without those pieces. Which is basically what you're saying - they're finishing touch/final pieces rather than the pillars that hold it all up.

[lou]

I think we are good on SP without cole, but id also be all about forming a super rotation and just adding him and Sixto on top of whats already in the big leagues plus the other guys still in the minors as well in Garrett, Rogers, and Cabrera. Given our SP surplus, i really want to see what richards and elieser can do in the back end of a bullpen.

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damn that post was before i even looked at cole's stats for this year. Holy shit. Him and Rendon are the 2 guys id throw all the money at and then if we fail on them go after 1-2 year deals and then try again for other stars next year in free agency. Cole has a 170/30 K/BB ratio at the allstar break in just 116 innings. Good god that is insane. And he's not even their best starter which is the funniest/scariest part.

I would absolutely sign Cole to something like 7/$210, so it seems we all agree on that.

The bonus with Cole is you can immediately trade one of Sandy/Gallen for an equal value position player (i.e., Cole, Pablo, Caleb, Sandy/Gallen, Neidert/Yamamoto/Elisier/Richards, w/ Sixto looming and Cabrera/Garret/Rogers behind ), so that fills a spot.

That creates a 2020 payroll of $65ish million for this, and I'm just making up they trade the SP for a longterm 1B candidate for hypotheticals sake:

Alfaro, Wallach
"Dude for Sandy/Gallen", ______
Diaz
______, Riddle
Anderson
Cooper
Brinson, Sierra
H. Ramirez

G. Cole, Pablo, Caleb, Alcantara/Gallen, Richards/Elisier (AAA-Yamamoto, Neidert)
Anderson, Steckenrider, Brice, Richards/Elisier, Brigham/Guerrero/whoever
Garcia, Conley/whoever, Quijada/whoever

You can probably fit in Didi and Walker into the above for a reasonable 2020 payroll under $85-90 million, and then just have a CC 25th man (Riddle). Ideally you push $90 though and just keep Rojas too, and that looks like a really nice team if you get anything out of the OF

[Nick]

I agree they're not enough either. Was just saying they'd be pieces that add to the puzzle. Not the full picture, but you wouldn't be able to "finish" the puzzle without those pieces. Which is basically what you're saying - they're finishing touch/final pieces rather than the pillars that hold it all up.

Well, say you miss on Rendon and Cole, you're waiting until 2022 until players of their caliber are available again on the FA market. Trading for an elite player would be nice, but you can't count on that. You're talking about paying these guys for 2 seasons where playoff contention still seems unlikely. Players of Ozuna and Castellanos caliber will be available leading up to the 2022 season, those holes don't have to necessarily be filled now and if you want these guys to be around for 2022 you're going to have to give them 3 or 4 year contracts which certainly comes with a risk.