July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

If they are available you sign them, yes, but we’ve been over this so we don’t have to get into it, signing guys for long term money who don’t deserve it for the sake of filling a need is how terrible teams run their business. Forcing a need to be filled even while knowing the person you are giving the contract to isn’t worth it is how you end up with albatross contracts and limited payroll flexibility. Every signing should be worth it, you don’t sign guys to long term deals who aren’t long term players because you happen to have money during a free agent period.

Obviously guys like Rendon or Cole are worth it, I’m talking about forcing a long term deal for big money on merely an above average player simply because it is free agency and you have money to spend is just awful business. No matter how much money you have to spend or how much money you have coming off the books.

The above average player in free agency in baseball is the most inefficient way to spend money. In free agency you can sign actual stars to big money and then make smart short term cheap signings or if you want, fine, short big money signings on a guy who is merely above average. But signing above average players to huge money because you have money to spend is a great way to end up with an expensive and merely above average team over time. If you’re a big market team you can afford that, but under no circumstances should we use free agency to plug long term holes with long term contracts for guys that you know are not worth that money the second you sign it

[fish16]

If there was a WAR stat for 3rd base coaches Fredi would be last

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Well we got that 2 out miggy Rojas 9th inning scenario that was discussed before and he flew out

[lou]

The above average player in free agency in baseball is the most inefficient way to spend money. In free agency you can sign actual stars to big money and then make smart short term cheap signings or if you want, fine, short big money signings on a guy who is merely above average. But signing above average players to huge money because you have money to spend is a great way to end up with an expensive and merely above average team over time. If you’re a big market team you can afford that, but under no circumstances should we use free agency to plug long term holes with long term contracts for guys that you know are not worth that money the second you sign it

Thankfully, we are only talking about probably these guys for any contract over 1 year:

7 year contract guys
Rendon, 2015-2018 4.5 WAR avg (missed 1/2 a season within that), pacing 5+ WAR in 2019, 30.5 years old opening day 2020. Bonafide star
Cole, 2015-2018 4.2 WAR avg, pacing 6 WAR in 2019, 29 years old opening day 2020. Bonafide ace

4-5 year contract guys
Didi, 2015-201, 3.6 WAR avg, pacing 2.6 WAR in 2019 off injury so this probably ticks up, 30 years old opening day 2020. Major upside w/ slugging potential, High Floor with Defense
Ozuna, 2015-2018 2.9 WAR avg, pacing 2.9 in 2019, 29 years old opening day 2020. Major upside w/ slugging potential, Moderate floor with hit tool in a corner

Potentially 3-4 year contract guys if you believe in them
Wheeler, 2018-2019, pacing 4 WAR player over last 300+ IP, 30.5 years old opening day. High floor with his 18/19 profile if you believe in him.
Castellanos, 2016-2018, 2.4 WAR avg, pacing 1.8 in 2019, 28 years old opening day 2020. High floor with hit tool, Moderate potential slugging growth, great free agency age. Could move up to above tier if he lights the world on fire second half

They need 2 of these dudes this offseason and then you hope that TV money, naming rights, and "the gate" let them sign another big FA in 2022 to push payroll around $100 million instead of $85 range.

This is a perfect offseason to me:

1 - Didi 4/$68
2 - Ozuna 5/$85, Rojas 3/$12, Walker 1/$4, and any free agent outfielder 1/$under 8 million; OR
--- Rendon 7/$200, Walker 1/$4, club controlled backup SS and club controlled 4th OF (and play Cooper/Walker in LF often); OR
--- Cole 7/$200, Walker 1/$4, club controlled backup SS + immediately trade Gallen or Alcantara for am equal value young 1B/3B/OF
3 - Trade Urena for a lefty RP

Castellanos needs to show something for me to tick him up. Wheeler makes sense if you are a believer and Gallen/Alcantara can get you something in the field you like a lot.

[fish16]

Ozuna to me is an example of an above average player who i now wouldnt want to go after in free agency because you can produce the amount of WAR he produces with less money being spent or more WAR for that same dollar value if you spread that money out over multiple players or just spend it on someone actually worth that money.

I just think Marcell has become overrated. For 10-12 million a year id pay him, but at this point the only year he's been above a .773 OPS was his last year here (not counting this year where he's at .846 and we shall see if he stays there). Paying 22 million for 4 years of the production he has shown throughout his career is just not worth it. He's an example of why free agency is not an efficient use of resources for a small market team like the marlins. Out of the last 5 years, his fangraphs WAR's have been 1.5, 2.4, 5.1, 2.7, and this year he is at 1.7 which would put him on pace for 3.4 or so. To me, id much rather not give that kind of money long term and sign a lower priced guy who can put up numbers that arent as good but arent far off either for much less money, and then use the remaining money elsewhere. You can come up with more WAR by signing a slightly lesser player and then utilizing the excess money elsewhere without investing serious future capital into a guy who has proven he is not a star player but is merely above average. Especially in a corner OF position and especially with the way that guys under team control can produce enormous amounts of surplus value for the money you are paying them.

If we were a piece away that's a different story, but if you're investing serious money into guys who are going to be building blocks given the money you are investing into them, they should be more than above average. Again, there is nothing wrong with using 1-2 year deals for slightly lesser players for less money and then re-entering the free agent market next year. That's a much better way to spend money than thinking you need to address every hole possible this offseason using the small pool of players who inevitably come up for free agency each year. I'm not saying not to spend money, im saying to spend it wisely and dont force yourself to choose building blocks for the next 4 years from this small group of players. The only players id give more than 2 years to are Rendon and Cole.

The other holes on this roster can be filled with 1-2 year deals with guys like Abreu who will produce for you without having to overinvest years into the future with guys who arent anything special.

[fish16]

Sixto is throwing absolute gas in the futures game. And he looks so much like Johnny cueto. Edit- Aside from the fact that going by fangraphs sixto's average FB in this game is like 6-7 MPH faster than Cueto's highest average FB for a season. If Sixto stays healthy this is an ace type guy.

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Sixto out here hitting 100 easy on every fastball but having difficulty locating the curve

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Damn, he only got 3 batters. I feel like he pitched not too long ago so I’m assuming that’s why. I’m on my phone so I’m not gonna check but he’s not on normal rest

[lou]

Ozuna to me is an example of an above average player who i now wouldnt want to go after in free agency because you can produce the amount of WAR he produces with less money being spent or more WAR for that same dollar value if you spread that money out over multiple players or just spend it on someone actually worth that money.

I just think Marcell has become overrated. For 10-12 million a year id pay him, but at this point the only year he's been above a .773 OPS was his last year here (not counting this year where he's at .846 and we shall see if he stays there). Paying 22 million for 4 years of the production he has shown throughout his career is just not worth it. He's an example of why free agency is not an efficient use of resources for a small market team like the marlins. Out of the last 5 years, his fangraphs WAR's have been 1.5, 2.4, 5.1, 2.7, and this year he is at 1.7 which would put him on pace for 3.4 or so. To me, id much rather not give that kind of money long term and sign a lower priced guy who can put up numbers that arent as good but arent far off either for much less money, and then use the remaining money elsewhere. You can come up with more WAR by signing a slightly lesser player and then utilizing the excess money elsewhere without investing serious future capital into a guy who has proven he is not a star player but is merely above average. Especially in a corner OF position and especially with the way that guys under team control can produce enormous amounts of surplus value for the money you are paying them.

If we were a piece away that's a different story, but if you're investing serious money into guys who are going to be building blocks given the money you are investing into them, they should be more than above average. Again, there is nothing wrong with using 1-2 year deals for slightly lesser players for less money and then re-entering the free agent market next year. That's a much better way to spend money than thinking you need to address every hole possible this offseason using the small pool of players who inevitably come up for free agency each year. I'm not saying not to spend money, im saying to spend it wisely and dont force yourself to choose building blocks for the next 4 years from this small group of players. The only players id give more than 2 years to are Rendon and Cole.

The other holes on this roster can be filled with 1-2 year deals with guys like Abreu who will produce for you without having to overinvest years into the future with guys who arent anything special.

A 3.4 WAR average player is a top 50-60 overall position player in baseball. Divide that by 30 teams. Pretty damn good. Scale that down to 2.7 and it's still within the top 75 position players. You ab-so-fucking-lutely pay for those guys if they are 29/30 years old, you get them for a reasonable price for their last few prime years, and you have the payroll/lack of organizational depth where it makes sense. MORE SO, with upside. Ozuna has a 4.5 and 5.1 WAR season under his belt. Didi has been over 4 twice (at the worst organizational position for the Marlins). There are maybe 100 guys in baseball that have that upside. You got to get those performances to win and bargain shopping for Neil Walker, who is certainly very valuable at $3 Million bucks for a guy who is an easy 1+ WAR player, is not going to get you closer to really winning unless that's a bench guy. Where are you also making up these fantastical numbers? Ozuna isn't making 4/$88 next year. I'd be shocked. Pollock, McCutchen, and Brantley couldn't even get close to that, and no one is as stupid as the Padres were for the Hosmer deal.

You need to stop thinking that how the Marlins have operated the last decade is normal. Re-read my prior post so you can understand the Marlins 4 year payroll expectations and projections. You need to really think about how you value players, because guys who have had the 33rd most position WAR in baseball 2015-2018 aren't slouches and batting your eye at a 3.4 WAR is laughable beyond belief. Do you realize how erect you will become if Isan Diaz or Monte Harrison ever have one 3.4 WAR season for the Marlins?

No one is saying spend to spend. But this is the year they have money with what's coming in the farm. The pitching staff is emerging and they need to start taking advantage of it now. The need to start winning fans over. This is what is available in free agency and they need to get these guys and become a real team.

[gustavopim]

Craig Mish

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@CraigMish
7m7 minutes ago
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If Diaz can come up and show promise, you can also bank on this offseason the Marlins spending money. That’s been made clear to me. Count on that. Second half may be meh, but 2020 really has a chance to be the big step forward.

[Namaste]

Well we got that 2 out miggy Rojas 9th inning scenario that was discussed before and he flew out

You sure you want to go down this road again? Your dog in this hunt would do better than fly out?

Update: your dog has a .642 OPS.

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Sixto is throwing absolute gas in the futures game. And he looks so much like Johnny cueto. Edit- Aside from the fact that going by fangraphs sixto's average FB in this game is like 6-7 MPH faster than Cueto's highest average FB for a season. If Sixto stays healthy this is an ace type guy.

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Sixto out here hitting 100 easy on every fastball but having difficulty locating the curve

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Damn, he only got 3 batters. I feel like he pitched not too long ago so I’m assuming that’s why. I’m on my phone so I’m not gonna check but he’s not on normal rest

Sixto got that many batters because they wanted to get all the pitchers in the game. Sixto pitched good but he was by no means the most effective pitcher in the Futures game. I watched it in its entirety.

I’m not downplaying Sixto; he hit 100 mph more than once (but missed his spots with it more than once).

Sixto will instantly be our ace when he comes up.

[Lee Stone]

Sixto will instantly be our ace when he comes up.

What gives you that impression? Cabrera is same age and seems to be showing at least equal potential. Rogers and Braxton are improving rapidly. Gallen showed top-of-the-rotation mastery at New Orleans. Picking the best of them seems like a crapshoot to me.

[tjfla]

Monte would be a mid-season call up I would presume.

C - Alfaro, Wallach/whoever
1B - Cooper, "Back up 1B"
2B - Diaz
SS - "Didi", "Back up IF"
3B - Anderson (or sign Rendon and move him to RF)
LF - H. Ramirez
CF - Brinson, "4th OF"
RF - Starting 3B/RF

I know we keep chatting about this, but they can spend $50 million on those 5 bolds (or a SP and then trade a younger SP) and have a bottom 3 payroll.

They will have a lot of options unless they prioritize debt and circle 2022. Can't see that happening though as they need to build momentum with the fans (right?).

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Rendon or G. Cole are obviously dream scenarios and I know that, but if those 5 blanks are say:

Didi ($17ish, 4/$68)
M. Ozuna ($17ish, 5/$85)
Rojas (keep him, extend 3/$12. He'd take it.)
N. Walker (keep, extend 1/$4)
J. Dyson (1/$something under 8 million)

I think you can get 8 WAR out of those guys, with some slugging upside with the first two. If Alfaro, Cooper, Diaz, and Anderson average into 2 WAR starting players, you can get to a 20 WAR position core if you get anything out of Ramirez and Brinson (and Monte and VVM and Sierra and whoever). That is a middle of the pack position core with real upside if Anderson is a 3+ WAR guy, Diaz really hits, one of Brinson/Monte land, and the others creep up a little.

Sierra will be the 4th OF to start the year(does he keep the job who knows?) but he is out of options so. I know there has been alot of talk about a FA OF(haven't heard if big name or just stopgap) Ozuna is an option especially since NO Boras to demand a 7/200 deal but more realistic is Nick Castellanos. Castellanos can play 1B and Corner OF

Something to watch over next few months is SP. They are getting tons of calls on the SP(Again Richards most likely to go) and Urena is likely getting dealt in the offseason.

Rest of 2019 will be about trading Romo,Walker,Grandy,Castro,others(Rojas? SP?) and hoping for a Top 3 Pick. They wanna get more IFA cash as have few more guys they wanna sign

NOT saying they are gonna do this but some talk Miami might try to trade for younger ML guys or even "rentals" if price is right. Castellanos has been mentioned a few times-trade for him see if he works out then try to resign him but more likely just try for him in FA

2019-Keep finding guys for future and Top 3 Pick
2020-Play young guys/mix in FA and be around #5-10
2021-Competitve

[fauowls44]

Craig Mish

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@CraigMish
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If Diaz can come up and show promise, you can also bank on this offseason the Marlins spending money. That’s been made clear to me. Count on that. Second half may be meh, but 2020 really has a chance to be the big step forward.

Mish also mentions Encarnacion, Abreu, Didi, and David Peralta as FA options.

[fish16]

You sure you want to go down this road again? Your dog in this hunt would do better than fly out?

Update: your dog has a .642 OPS.

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Sixto got that many batters because they wanted to get all the pitchers in the game. Sixto pitched good but he was by no means the most effective pitcher in the Futures game. I watched it in its entirety.

I’m not downplaying Sixto; he hit 100 mph more than once (but missed his spots with it more than once).

Sixto will instantly be our ace when he comes up.

Is a .642 OPS bad now? Cause Rojas' career OPS is just barely above that.

The thing with your argument is it gets my argument completely wrong. Im not saying Hech is a good hitter, im saying he sucks, and the stats over a very representative period show that they are essentially the same hitter. Just like i proved a week or so ago when i showed you that their numbers are nearly identical since the day rojas made his major league debut and you just didnt acknowledge.


And ya sixto couldnt locate his off speed stuff. He was throwing gas though.

[lou]

Craig Mish

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@CraigMish
7m7 minutes ago
More
If Diaz can come up and show promise, you can also bank on this offseason the Marlins spending money. That’s been made clear to me. Count on that. Second half may be meh, but 2020 really has a chance to be the big step forward.

This is dumb. Diaz alone isn't the reason to invest in the team.

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Mish also mentions Encarnacion, Abreu, Didi, and David Peralta as FA options.

They should just resign Rojas and Walker for cheaper if the alternative is the other 3 of those guys. Didi is obviously a no brainer if they can get him out of New York.

[fish16]

A 3.4 WAR average player is a top 50-60 overall position player in baseball. Divide that by 30 teams. Pretty damn good. Scale that down to 2.7 and it's still within the top 75 position players. You ab-so-fucking-lutely pay for those guys if they are 29/30 years old, you get them for a reasonable price for their last few prime years, and you have the payroll/lack of organizational depth where it makes sense. MORE SO, with upside. Ozuna has a 4.5 and 5.1 WAR season under his belt. Didi has been over 4 twice (at the worst organizational position for the Marlins). There are maybe 100 guys in baseball that have that upside. You got to get those performances to win and bargain shopping for Neil Walker, who is certainly very valuable at $3 Million bucks for a guy who is an easy 1+ WAR player, is not going to get you closer to really winning unless that's a bench guy. Where are you also making up these fantastical numbers? Ozuna isn't making 4/$88 next year. I'd be shocked. Pollock, McCutchen, and Brantley couldn't even get close to that, and no one is as stupid as the Padres were for the Hosmer deal.

You need to stop thinking that how the Marlins have operated the last decade is normal. Re-read my prior post so you can understand the Marlins 4 year payroll expectations and projections. You need to really think about how you value players, because guys who have had the 33rd most position WAR in baseball 2015-2018 aren't slouches and batting your eye at a 3.4 WAR is laughable beyond belief. Do you realize how erect you will become if Isan Diaz or Monte Harrison ever have one 3.4 WAR season for the Marlins?

No one is saying spend to spend. But this is the year they have money with what's coming in the farm. The pitching staff is emerging and they need to start taking advantage of it now. The need to start winning fans over. This is what is available in free agency and they need to get these guys and become a real team.

The bold is a fundamentally flawed way to look at it. And its insinuating exactly what you are saying that you arent insinuating, essentially that we should spend because we have money available now, not because the guys you are suggesting are worth it. Didi and Ozuna are not worth big money AND big years. If they get manageable money for multiple years, fine. Big money over a short term deal? Sure. But big money and long term deals for these guys are just not worth it. Sorry, youre overrating didi. He will not put up anything close to those numbers outside of that lineup and outside of that ballpark, and you're paying for his declining years. He is not this elite shortstop you're making him out to be. He is around the 10th best SS in baseball, and that will probably drop in rank over the course of the deal you are suggesting. Which is not to downplay that, he's a good player, but sorry, im not giving a merely good player 4 years with a big AAV at 30 years old.

For Ozuna I was using your 4/85 number and rounding up. 21.25 million is literally the AAV you gave.

Ya, im not paying 22 million for a guy who is merely a top 50-60 position player, especially in a corner outfield spot. No ones batting their eye at 3.4 WAR, im saying that his performance in his career to date has not been nearly as impressive as people make them out to be and almost every year thus far in his career he has sucked for an entire half of the season. You dont pay 22 million for a guy who is merely an above average player in a small market. And once again, i saw your outlook over the next 4 years, that doesnt mean you say "fuck it, we have low payroll obligations coming up so lets just spend out the ass regardless of whether it constitutes a value." Im fine with doing that for a 1-2 year deal if you overpay for a guy. Doing it for 4 is just ignoring how we got in the mess in the first place. You dont pay for a guy in free agency for a merely above average player for 4 years and 22 million simply because you have money to spend. Not sure how many times i can repeat that that is how terribly run franchises view their payroll obligations. You dont clear the payroll we've cleared the last few year just to fill your future salary obligations up again with overpriced talent for years into the future. The amount per year is one thing, my issue is with the years. You dont have to fill every hole this offseason with the small pool of players who happen to make it to free agency. You can dip back into the free agent markets in future years while maintaining payroll flexibility while also not giving long term deals to guys approaching 30 who have never really been more than above average guys. Especially in todays game where you can find guys for super cheap late in free agency or develop talent from within and get close to the same production for the minimum.

As for me viewing this in the prism of the old regime's actions being normal, i'm not. But im also not gonna sit here like you and just start spending big money long term as if we are all of a sudden going to be this 100+ million dollar payroll team immediately. You'readvocating for spending money on guys whose career numbers are telling you the player they are. Didi outside of that ball park and that lineup and the ballparks in that division in his age 30-33 seasons for big money and long years is just a stupid investment.

[lou]

Sierra will be the 4th OF to start the year(does he keep the job who knows?) but he is out of options so. I know there has been alot of talk about a FA OF(haven't heard if big name or just stopgap) Ozuna is an option especially since NO Boras to demand a 7/200 deal but more realistic is Nick Castellanos. Castellanos can play 1B and Corner OF

Something to watch over next few months is SP. They are getting tons of calls on the SP(Again Richards most likely to go) and Urena is likely getting dealt in the offseason.

Rest of 2019 will be about trading Romo,Walker,Grandy,Castro,others(Rojas? SP?) and hoping for a Top 3 Pick. They wanna get more IFA cash as have few more guys they wanna sign

NOT saying they are gonna do this but some talk Miami might try to trade for younger ML guys or even "rentals" if price is right. Castellanos has been mentioned a few times-trade for him see if he works out then try to resign him but more likely just try for him in FA

2019-Keep finding guys for future and Top 3 Pick
2020-Play young guys/mix in FA and be around #5-10
2021-Competitve

Trading for Castellanos now is idiotic unless you're going to resign him for 4+ years. That could be a sneaky good pickup though if the price is right (he's from Davie so maybe?) as he is young and should hit, but he is a truly horrible defender which isn't something the Marlins usually get behind. I'd rather do nothing unless you get a good deal. But, if it's cheap and and it's contingent on him signing a 4-5 year deal for say $12+ millionish a year, sure?

If the bench is Wallach, Walker, Rojas, and Sierra, they sign a real LF/RF to combine with Brinson and H. Ramirez, and Cooper and Anderson can pop out into the OF and let Walker/Rojas start in the infield, I can live with that for sure. That's a good depth chart.

This is legitimately a $75 million payroll - which would rank 28th in baseball in 17, 18, and 19. It's easily lower if you swap Castellanos for Ozuna.

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, Walker
Diaz
Didi, Rojas
Anderson (Walker, Rojas)
H. Ramirez (Cooper)
Brinson, Sierra
Ozuna (Anderson)

Pablo, Caleb, Alcantara, Gallen, Richards/Elisier (AAA-Yamamoto, Neidert)
Anderson, Steckenrider, Brice, Richards/Elisier, Brigham/Guerrero/whoever
Garcia, Conley/whoever, Quijada/whoever

I mean, honestly I'd maybe just add a better LHP pen pitcher (but maybe you get that for Urena?), and if you want to spend money, sign some veteran SP for 2-3 years, don't resign Walker, and trade Gallen/Sandy and get a comparable value young 1B/3B who hopefully becomes a starter and you can sort out that guy, Cooper, and Anderson positions on the fly.

They have so much flexibility they just have to use it.

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The bold is a fundamentally flawed way to look at it. And its insinuating exactly what you are saying that you arent insinuating, essentially that we should spend because we have money available now, not because the guys you are suggesting are worth it. Didi and Ozuna are not worth big money AND big years. If they get manageable money for multiple years, fine. Big money over a short term deal? Sure. But big money and long term deals for these guys are just not worth it. Sorry, youre overrating didi. He will not put up anything close to those numbers outside of that lineup and outside of that ballpark, and you're paying for his declining years. He is not this elite shortstop you're making him out to be. He is around the 10th best SS in baseball, and that will probably drop in rank over the course of the deal you are suggesting. Which is not to downplay that, he's a good player, but sorry, im not giving a merely good player 4 years with a big AAV at 30 years old.

For Ozuna I was using your 4/85 number and rounding up. 21.25 million is literally the AAV you gave.

Ya, im not paying 22 million for a guy who is merely a top 50-60 position player, especially in a corner outfield spot. No ones batting their eye at 3.4 WAR, im saying that his performance in his career to date has not been nearly as impressive as people make them out to be and almost every year thus far in his career he has sucked for an entire half of the season. You dont pay 22 million for a guy who is merely an above average player in a small market. And once again, i saw your outlook over the next 4 years, that doesnt mean you say "fuck it, we have low payroll obligations coming up so lets just spend out the ass regardless of whether it constitutes a value." Im fine with doing that for a 1-2 year deal if you overpay for a guy. Doing it for 4 is just ignoring how we got in the mess in the first place. You dont pay for a guy in free agency for a merely above average player for 4 years and 22 million simply because you have money to spend. Not sure how many times i can repeat that that is how terribly run franchises view their payroll obligations. You dont clear the payroll we've cleared the last few year just to fill your future salary obligations up again with overpriced talent for years into the future. The amount per year is one thing, my issue is with the years. You dont have to fill every hole this offseason with the small pool of players who happen to make it to free agency. You can dip back into the free agent markets in future years while maintaining payroll flexibility while also not giving long term deals to guys approaching 30 who have never really been more than above average guys. Especially in todays game where you can find guys for super cheap late in free agency or develop talent from within and get close to the same production for the minimum.

As for me viewing this in the prism of the old regime's actions being normal, i'm not. But im also not gonna sit here like you and just start spending big money long term as if we are all of a sudden going to be this 100+ million dollar payroll team immediately. You'readvocating for spending money on guys whose career numbers are telling you the player they are. Didi outside of that ball park and that lineup and the ballparks in that division in his age 30-33 seasons for big money and long years is just a stupid investment.

I said 5/$85, so your entire analysis is based off your own made up numbers. And 3+ WAR players are worth $17 million a season in modern baseball. Just because the Marlins haven't been in a position to spend that kind of money lately, that is what it is. If Ozuna is 5/$110, no thanks. But he's not going to get there with what Pollock, McCutchen, and Brantley got. He'll get more than them as he's younger, but not double and quadruple more.

See post above where they can pay out $45ish million to Didi, Ozuna, N. Walker, and Rojas and be at $75 million - which is what Marlins payroll is in 2019 - and as shown, payroll is not going up in the next 3 seasons after 2020 based on what's realistically in the pipes and what they can trade. Those guys are off the books by the time it will matter.

And the bold is fundamentally flawed with how the pitching looks and they need to take advantage of this now. The Marlins SP is 7th in ERA - and that's with Urena and Richards who are getting pushed out, and a lot of missed starts with Caleb/Pablo who are their best 2 right now. These guys are collectively going to get better and Sixto is coming.

You're acting like 3+ WAR position players are Heath Bell and John Buck. I'm not sure in what world signing guys between the ages of 29-33 in their prime becomes franchise altering dead money when they can still afford things on top of them if they even move payroll to "10th lowest." With new TV money, theoretically stadium naming rights, more fan involvement so some gate money will have to improve, etc. is coming.