June Game Thread

[fish16]

I was similarly surprised to the WAR stat, but I'm just reporting the facts. I still think he'd be the perfect utility guy on a contending team.

i know im not saying your stat is wrong, im saying that the way they are calculating that stat is putting way way way way too much emphasis on defense if you can look at Rojas' year thus far and think if he keeps this up thats a 4 WAR year, and then also looking at the numbers between him and Andrus and thinking Rojas has had the more valuable year.

In addition, it just looks like baseball reference just has a bad WAR calculation, cause they have Anderson as our team leader at 1.8 WAR despite the fact that he's been pretty decent at best. They also have Pablo Lopez with a .7 WAR compared to a .8 WAR from sandy and a 1.1 WAR from Richards despite the fact that he has an XFip of nearly a run lower than both Sandy and Richards.

Their stat is being calculated really poorly for whatever reason. I'd go with fangraphs over baseball reference.

[Nick]

ESPN must be using the same calculation as BR.

[fish16]

ESPN must be using the same calculation as BR.

ya looking at that list they are. Im all for other stats being used to discuss players, but that BR WAR seems like a pretty obvious miscalculation for whatever reason. Even forgetting comparing Rojas and Andrus, they have Rojas and Anderson being 4 WAR players over the course of 162 games based on what they have done thus far. thats absurd to anyone who knows WAR and who has watched the marlins this year.

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you'd think with all the resources ESPN has they could come up with their own personal smart version of WAR rather than just copying BR.

[tjfla]

I don't think those teams are fits at all for Castro.

Minnesota is insane, and they don't even have room for Astudillo right now who is obliterating AAA since being sent down.

Rays internal options are all better.

I do think some team will give the Marlins a nominal player and IFA cash (especially if the Marlins cover a little payroll), but not sure those are the ones

I meant some small market team I didnt mean them exactly. I doubt teams like TB/Oak even has IFA to give us

Some small market team will call and ask for Castro and REAL money to cover his salary and offer Fake IFA cash in return which we will jump all over.

[fauowls44]

I meant some small market team I didnt mean them exactly. I doubt teams like TB/Oak even has IFA to give us

Some small market team will call and ask for Castro and REAL money to cover his salary and offer Fake IFA cash in return which we will jump all over.

Yeah, I would think that there is some team would be willing to take the chance on getting Castro for cheap (IFA money and a low level prospect). Yes, he has been bad this season, but he is not this bad of a hitter. The odds are that he is going to heat up at some point and a team will benefit from a overdue good stretch from him.

[tjfla]

Yeah, I would think that there is some team would be willing to take the chance on getting Castro for cheap (IFA money and a low level prospect). Yes, he has been bad this season, but he is not this bad of a hitter. The odds are that he is going to heat up at some point and a team will benefit from a overdue good stretch from him.

Miami doesn't even want a prospect for him,I mean its icing on cake but they are focused on IFA Pool $ right now. This is why people keep thinking we are in on Cappe and/or Yo Sanchez

We are asking for Maybin type deal(Top 20-30 Prospect and IFA cash) in ALL deals as starting point but the only guys they expect to get that with is Walker and Romo. The rest as soon as a team says $250k or 500k in IFA Pool $ deal is done

[fauowls44]

Miami doesn't even want a prospect for him,I mean its icing on cake but they are focused on IFA Pool $ right now. This is why people keep thinking we are in on Cappe and/or Yo Sanchez

We are asking for Maybin type deal(Top 20-30 Prospect and IFA cash) in ALL deals as starting point but the only guys they expect to get that with is Walker and Romo. The rest as soon as a team says $250k or 500k in IFA Pool $ deal is done

Hopefully Walker gets back soon. He was having a nice year and a lot of contenders would probably love to have him on their roster.

[lou]

ESPN must be using the same calculation as BR.

They do. They use bWAR. I am on the fWAR train. These may have been more recently updated elsewhere, but worth a look.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...mparison.shtml
https://library.fangraphs.com/war/di...ces-fwar-rwar/

There are some big differences. fWAR bases pitching on FIP and not "runs allowed" like bWAR. fWAR judges players based on MLB universe and not via competition in their league (i.e. Amer/Nat).

I think Rojas is a great example of the differences. In what realm do we think he is a premium SS using bWAR versus a "good" bench player via fWAR. I don't buy bWAR at all here. He's ahead of Trea Turner in bWAR who has 200 OPS points on him, albeit Rojas has more PA. I don't buy Trea hasn't produced more value over the year than Rojas with that offense.

Rojas is a "great bench player" and pacing as a 1-1.5 WAR guy over a ton of PA seems right for a great bench player. He's not an average "starting" SS as bWAR suggests.

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you'd think with all the resources ESPN has they could come up with their own personal smart version of WAR rather than just copying BR.

I wouldn't think that at all. They don't have the resources compared to a collection of dozens of stat nerds who do this as a passion rather than journalism.

What should happen though is, Baseball reference and Fangraphs should standardize the formula, even if they tweak it here and there on yearly summits.

Like FG added catcher variables recently on framing, and McCann added like 15 WAR to his career. That pushes him from an "awesome player" too "should be a surefire hall of famer." bWAR hasn't caught up yet. There is a 15-20 WAR disparity between them on McCann.

I'm taking Miguel Rojas is a solid bench player and Brian McCann is a superstar versus Miguel Rojas is a middle of the pack starter and Brian McCann is just "pretty good."

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Yeah, I would think that there is some team would be willing to take the chance on getting Castro for cheap (IFA money and a low level prospect). Yes, he has been bad this season, but he is not this bad of a hitter. The odds are that he is going to heat up at some point and a team will benefit from a overdue good stretch from him.

I agree. Eat the money and get the better players/more IFA.

Castro, Chen, and Prado are the only ones with bad deals right now. Just eat them if possible as who cares? The books are clean after this.

I understand only the first will ever get traded for the record!

[fish16]

Pretty sure ESPN has the resources to come up with their own quality version of WAR if they wanted to. They have a phenomenal stats department that seems to just not want to develop their own version of WAR.

As to what you are saying about the different versions of WAR, you are absolutely correct. Watching Rojas and hell, just seeing his numbers, if your stat says he is on pace for a 4 WAR season and better than guys like Turner and Andrus, your stat is just flat out off. I hate to be the guy who just throws out stats they dont like like some people like to do, for instance, when they pick and choose which games from Alcantara are indicative of his potential while ignoring the good games, but saying Rojas is on pace for a 4 WAR season is just absurd. Same with Anderson.

[fish16]

Gallen time tomorrow. Pablo not starting for some reason. Hope it’s just rest or some quick personal reason for leaving. Really hope Pablo isn’t hurt

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Fuck, Lopez to the il. Hopefully maybe just rest or a lower body injury. What the fuck is up with us having pitchers go on the dl after looking good the previous start with no indication of an injury

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Shoulder. Fuck

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Lopez has always reminded me of Henderson Alvarez in the way he pitched. Hopefully it stays just about the way he pitched, but shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries at this point in baseball. Really hope this is a very minor shoulder thing but given that there is 0 news from anyone besides Craig mish as usual because our best writers suck, I’m not hopeful that this is some minor thing

[Namaste]

miguel rojas aint any teams final piece. he's barely a major leaguer. He's Hech with a slightly better bat and a slightly worse glove who is a good guy in the clubhouse. For the life of me i dont get this talk of him as any kind of trade piece aside from a team willing to throw some IFA money at us for him.

lol did he bang your girlfriend or something you seem really mad at him?

Miggy Ro is a really good defensive shortstop. To compare him to Hech is a little insulting.
If I was a GM of a contending team I’d definitely want him on my bench.

Game 7 of the World Series, bottom of the 9th, 2 outs. You want Rojas batting or Hech?

[fish16]

lol did he bang your girlfriend or something you seem really mad at him?

Miggy Ro is a really good defensive shortstop. To compare him to Hech is a little insulting.

Game 7 of the World Series, bottom of the 9th, 2 outs. You want Rojas batting or Hech?

Not mad at anyone, he's a great clubhouse guy from all indications, he's just not a good player. Miguel Rojas has a .646 OPS in 1479 ab's and is 30 years old. Hech had a .637 OPS in 2891 AB's and he's 30. He's hech with more versatility but a worse glove at SS. Hech was also a good defensive SS, they are both just god awful hitters who have no business starting everyday.

If I get to game 7 of the world series, bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, Miguel Rojas or Hech wouldnt be on the team and if they are, they would be nowhere near actually getting an AB.

[Nick]

Gallen time tomorrow. Pablo not starting for some reason. Hope it’s just rest or some quick personal reason for leaving. Really hope Pablo isn’t hurt

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Fuck, Lopez to the il. Hopefully maybe just rest or a lower body injury. What the fuck is up with us having pitchers go on the dl after looking good the previous start with no indication of an injury

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Shoulder. Fuck

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Lopez has always reminded me of Henderson Alvarez in the way he pitched. Hopefully it stays just about the way he pitched, but shoulder injuries are worse than elbow injuries at this point in baseball. Really hope this is a very minor shoulder thing but given that there is 0 news from anyone besides Craig mish as usual because our best writers suck, I’m not hopeful that this is some minor thing

Damn, definitely didn't see any indication that he was having issues with his shoulder in his last start.

[fish16]

i was also today years old when i found out that not only is hech still in the league, he's in our division and somehow has the best OPS of his career at .710, albeit in a limited sample and given the fact that its not exactly anything special for him to have a career high ops.

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Damn, definitely didn't see any indication that he was having issues with his shoulder in his last start.

I know. Very interested to hear when this happened and the severity. He’s apparently back in Miami to get an mri on his shoulder so I think we will probably hear what happened when mattingly is asked pregame

[Nick]

Just cuz I was curious, based on FanGraphs Career WAR Hech 4.1, Rojas 3.9 in about half the Plate Appearances.