2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

Broke Dik Bruce can’t afford a long contract for a high OBP, low Slugging bad defender.

Thank you, Otto Lopez, for stepping up and providing a 2 WAR this year!

[lou]

how am i cherry picking offense by providing his war? I'm not cherry picking anything, im valuing what guys can do at an elite level as opposed to their weaknesses. If he is now a full time DH as opposed to an everyday, bad fielder creating negative WAR, his WAR should stay around the same provided the same offensive production but moving to a spot with higher expected offensive production in DH. If he hits like he has, he is a 2-3+ WAR guy. Especially if he is now just a full time DH as opposed to a negative defender. It's ok for a guy to be a damn good DH. There will always be a spot for guys who strike out less than 5% of plate appearances, hit .330+, and put up an OPS around .800 when healthy. focusing on what he cant do as opposed to what he can do at an elite level that no other player in the league can do is dumb.

Because that WAR includes his defensive performances. And DH time (i.e. extremely not valuable and very replaceable) is part of those calculations moving forward. He's never going to touch 2.7 WAR again absent he hits .370 (which he might be able to do?). He's a 2 WAR DH (which is very good BTW). A contending piece for the right team for sure. What you're missing here is, we are all focusing on the entire picture not just what is bad, and you're just looking at the hit tool. It's why Otto has a higher WAR than Arraez. His defense (and base running) lifts him over the lower OBP this season.

Let's close this book. You love Arraez. Everyone else also thinks he is very good, but you love him more. But he has two huge warts (defense, LHP), maybe a third one (base running, it's not like it's coming to improve). But what he does well (RHP) is extremely valuable and awesome and should be sustainable for the rest of the decade. He's going to be a very viable RHP DH for years. Kim should have signed him. She messed up not doing that. Maybe Peter traded for the right guys and we'll know in 2 years. Maybe he didn't and they all suck and it was a bad trade.

Let's close this book. Who cares about Arraez. It was great to have him and make the playoffs in 2023.

[fauowls44]

I'm fully with you on the first paragraph, but I'd quib DDLS could come up mid-April versus mid-June as the major deciding factor should be the "7th" control year versus paying him a 4th arbitration year. If he's ready mid-April, I'd say call him up. He's not this elite guy like Eury where a S2 deflection may really matter (to mention, Jesus Sanchez is a super 2 ultimately, and he's more along those lines to me). This goes for all of them too (Ramirez, Serna, Martorella, Snelling, Marsee, Mack, etc.). Of course, they have to be ready and most won't be. To note, catchers are so cheap in arbitration its pathetic so no sense holding Ramirez back past mid-April *if* he is ready.

But I agree on the 3B strategy as let's be objective here, Norby is actually a 30th percentile defender - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Now, that is not great and yes a SSS, but if he is going to hit, that's something you can get behind if you have some superior defenders elsewhere. I think there is plausible hope Norby can improve at the position over the winter and if he is just going to linger in the "acceptably below average" defensive range which I think what the 30th percentile is, that's fine with me if that's a .750+ OPS bat (effectively a top 20 hitter at the position, so Norby would be a solid low-end starter as an average bat, below average defender, and above average base runner theoretically, which frankly is fine for the price). I have way more hope for Norby at 3B leading to a try all that shit out in 2025 like you said, even if I'd agree he is likely still going to move to LF eventually, than any confidence in......

I'm not with you on Edwards playing SS. He is pitiful and they need to make the move to 2B ASAP. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. 3rd percentile(!) range and 20th percentile arm strength? I know you mentioned he's ultimately going to be a 2B so you're not advocating for this and just projecting the Marlins brass being cheap AF, but he is so bad I can't get behind that as a plausible plan. They must get a SS (and also, they have many minor leaguers - especially someone like Serna - to trade on top of the SP. They have real assets they can move). But if they don't, Otto has 96th range at 2B and 36th percentile arm strength (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) so I have to imagine he'd be the better defender at SS showcasing really elite traits and this entire charade going on with Edwards getting any time at SS is hope/prayer zone. That's fine for this September garbage time, but in a world they do not get any major infielder in FA/trade, Otto needs to be the SS against all RHP next year with this current personnel.


Ultimately, I do think they will bring in at minimum a bridge catcher and two more bats for the field (SS, right handed OF) so this will work itself out.

I do like the idea of swapping Lopez and Edwards. I feel like they have committed to giving X this year to play SS, which is why they haven't made that move yet. Given what is available on the FA market this offseason and how poorly the Tim Anderson experiment went, I can't see them signing another stop-gap SS for next year. IMO, the best move would be to play some combination of X, Otto, and Sanoja there in 2025 with Serna playing SS in AAA to start the year.

The only place I can see them spending any money this offseason would be on a RH OF bat since the system doesn't really have any of those ready to come up and play regularly. He's nothing special, but perhaps Harrison Bader makes sense on a 1 year deal to play CF with Sanchez, Stowers, Myers/Conine/Random FA/offseason pickup (probably someone the Rays couldn't fit on their 40 man) rotating in the corners.

[Todd]

You like Otto Lopez way too much, Lou. His 2 WAR is all defense which is still fairly hard to quantify. He is a truly awful hitter.

His WRC+ is 85 with a normal BABIP. You say his RHP splits are good if they hold but they aren't good, dead average against RHP with a high BABIP. And he's needed a near .400 BABIP the last 2 months to even be mediocre against RHP. He is unplayable against LHP.

He is fine as a utility infielder or late game defensive replacement but he should not be a starter in MLB.

[Namaste]

You like Otto Lopez way too much, Lou. His 2 WAR is all defense which is still fairly hard to quantify. He is a truly awful hitter.

His WRC+ is 85 with a normal BABIP. You say his RHP splits are good if they hold but they aren't good, dead average against RHP with a high BABIP. And he's needed a near .400 BABIP the last 2 months to even be mediocre against RHP. He is unplayable against LHP.

He is fine as a utility infielder or late game defensive replacement but he should not be a starter in MLB.

WAR is conveniently a good stat when it helps bolster a case for a player

WAR is conveniently a bad stat when it helps bolster a case

[fish16]

WAR is conveniently a good stat when it helps bolster a case for a player

WAR is conveniently a bad stat when it helps bolster a case

or..... defensive war is unreliable and not well calculated yet whereas offensive WAR is significantly easier to calculate for obvious reasons and thus more reliable, plus you then have to weight each accordingly, which i dont think is done well.

[Namaste]

or..... defensive war is extremely unreliable and not well calculated yet whereas offensive WAR is significantly easier to calculate for obvious reasons and thus more reliable.

It might not be as reliable but do you think Fangraphs would use something that is “EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE” as you put it?

It’s painfully obvious to me that Otto Lopez is an extremely (to use your term) better defender and base stealer than Arraez.

[lou]

I do like the idea of swapping Lopez and Edwards. I feel like they have committed to giving X this year to play SS, which is why they haven't made that move yet. Given what is available on the FA market this offseason and how poorly the Tim Anderson experiment went, I can't see them signing another stop-gap SS for next year. IMO, the best move would be to play some combination of X, Otto, and Sanoja there in 2025 with Serna playing SS in AAA to start the year.

The only place I can see them spending any money this offseason would be on a RH OF bat since the system doesn't really have any of those ready to come up and play regularly. He's nothing special, but perhaps Harrison Bader makes sense on a 1 year deal to play CF with Sanchez, Stowers, Myers/Conine/Random FA/offseason pickup (probably someone the Rays couldn't fit on their 40 man) rotating in the corners.

I really can't see them going with a shitty defensive SS with the Norby experiment at 3B, but we'll see.

Let's think major asset wise here for a second - their first round pick 2025. It's a left handed CF (LaViolette, Cannarella) or 3B (Holliday). You're not clogging the lanes at either position right now as this very soon asset may be coming by 2027. Yes that is 2 years away, but basically why trade Luzardo for a 3B with 6 years of control if that may just be a problem down the road of creating some main asset redundancy? They think like this ya know on some of the big moves. It's why I firmly don't think anything major is coming at 3B (or via a new major left handed OF), as those guys could be up fast like Langford or J. Holliday, etc.

So major asset wise, it's the right handed OF (preferably CF given current status of Sanchez, Stowers, and we'll say Norby) and a SS. To note, their likely next best 4 OF are all left handed - Head, Morlando, Mesa Jr., and Marsee. They don't have those two spots anywhere any time soon, aren't going to fall into one in the draft, and everything else can be a bridge player except those two IMO. This swings to Bader - he makes sense in theory for 1 year if that is what they are doing - but why devote $10-12m to him when you have trade assets and just get it done. I'd rather them trade Luzardo for a SS/right handed OF and devote that money to Bader on a SP if you know what I mean. I do think Luzardo showing a good bullpen alleviates concerns for other teams as nowhere can you get a starter with his upside for how cheap he is going to be, etc. He won't be as valuable as March 2024, but he is still gonna be plenty damn valuable IMO. K. Campbell (BOS) is screaming here to me for him as Boston can't hold onto every bat and 1 major one is going to be traded for an arm. Marlins should figure out how to get him for CF as it's a great matchups for both teams, etc.


In any event, we'll see. But I guess this comes down to I think the Marlins can and should dip into their depth for 2 major trades for a SS and right handed CF. Longterm, CC types. The obvious centerpieces would be Luzardo and Noble to me, and secondary guys could be Edwards/Serna (as there is 2B depth), Burger/DDLS/Martorella/Berry (they don't need all 4 of these guys, this is likely one of the first two), right handed relievers, injured starters (Fulton, Shim), and A ball hopes (Valor, Cruz, etc.). They can live moving 5-6 guys here for a longterm SS and right handed CF on paper. They should do that and stop being assholes and not repeat the mistakes of this last offseason. I know you agree and are projecting they are cheap and will do that bullshit you typed, but they should just stop being assholes and fix the problems (on paper anyways).

[lou]

You like Otto Lopez way too much, Lou. His 2 WAR is all defense which is still fairly hard to quantify. He is a truly awful hitter.

His WRC+ is 85 with a normal BABIP. You say his RHP splits are good if they hold but they aren't good, dead average against RHP with a high BABIP. And he's needed a near .400 BABIP the last 2 months to even be mediocre against RHP. He is unplayable against LHP.

He is fine as a utility infielder or late game defensive replacement but he should not be a starter in MLB.

I disagree on "liking" him too much, and we have already gone over this and not sure now many times I have to say this, but I think Otto should be the team's backup IF, but at the same time, he may be showing more to be a (good) platoon starter against RHP if he is going to be a .725+ OPS bat against right handers with the defense/base running. Or, a bridge SS against RHP until they can get a better one as maybe he can do it. Where have I said he is phenomenal and should be the outright longterm starter over Edwards or Serna (I haven't)? Why can't one point out he is having a good year?

Season line - .260/.302/.369 (.671)
Expected slash - .269/.311/.397 (.708)
His season BABIP is .306. 86th percentile sprint speed with good K rate, so that is perhaps, a bit low.

So he is overall, underachieving by all indications. Mainly just on a little slugging, but it is underachieving. A SSS BABIP point doesn't out weigh the entire season here my dude. And no, I do not think he is a .900+ OPS bat like his September split and nowhere have I said that. He's hot. It happens. He's still a high .600/low .700 OPS bat more than likely


What is also dead average against RHP mean? Let's unpack what average at 2B is.

A dead average hitter at 2B (overall, no splits) is a .683 OPS (minimum PA 200)
Against RHP, this scales up slightly to .687 (minimum 150 PA).
Against LHP, this scales to .692 (minimum 100, PA, I have scaled the splits opportunity guys down a little)

So overall right now

Slightly below average overall hitter for a 2B... but his expected outcome says he is a little better. He's in the range of average here depending on the bloops dropping.

Above average hitter against RHP (.726, actual OPS right now on split). This is actually fairly notable. And he has a .320 BABIP against RHP so that isn't outrageous with his speed/contact. He's not overachieving here, and if he is, he's still over a .687 OPS. Where an average hitter + elite defender + very good base runner is.... a good platoon starter.

Pathetic against LHP and yes, we agree virtually unplayable. It is very bad.


So if you shield him on lefties, he's performing like an above average overall hitter at his position (maybe not by a lot, but by some and that is something) so saying he is dead average isn't an accurate statement. Then, you combine this with objectively good defense and base running, and all of a sudden he may be a very legitimate starter against RHP. Play the defense isn't quantifiable card all you want, but he is one of the best defenders in league by all the metrics and absent the floor dropping out (like Estrada in SF who is a good defender but decided to hit .590 this year), he's going to be a pretty good player. Even if that's a bench/platoon role player. Guys like this live for awhile on teams - like Jorge Mateo who is a good defender and lives around a .650 OPS. Otto is going to be good for this team for awhile if he is a .650 OPS bat, plays great defense, and is a great base runner.

Maybe he doesn't hold up, but this isn't a situation where the expected slash suggests doom and gloam (for instance, Bride's expected performance is .231/.317/.331 so the bottom is dropping out eventually for him) so there may be something viable here to have for a few years. I don't get why you and Fish16 bag on this guy so much. They plucked a solid dude for nothing off waivers, and there is objectively some upside hope here with the defense and K rate. There is nothing wrong about being "pleased" they may have a plus bench guy or platoon starter. Is it turning the organization around? No. But this is one less piece they need as we all know, Bruce doesn't spend money so what money there is can now go to something else. Otto is a win player development story. Let's be happy even if this may just be a good bench player only. I think Mateo is good slot comparable here. The team with all the minor league hitters still keeps and plays Mateo. Because defense matters. Yes he is hurt right now, but you get the comparison overall for the last few years. Otto can be a different version of that guy quickly for the Marlins. This is a good thing even if this year is his peak due to playing time.

[lou]

It might not be as reliable but do you think Fangraphs would use something that is “EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE” as you put it?

It’s painfully obvious to me that Otto Lopez is an extremely (to use your term) better defender and base stealer than Arraez.

Don't forget statcast who loves the defense too - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

I really think a lot of this is folks don't look around the league and see everyone fucking sucks for every team and no one can hit. These .675-.725 OPS guys who have an elite other skill are valuable.

Said another way, Otto is about to out perform what Berti did here in his 2 best years (2.1, 2.2 WAR in 404-424 PA), and we're bitching about it. Otto is at 2 WAR in 394 PA. They replaced Berti for free, at cheaper rates, with a younger guy. Like the fuck? Bendix messed up a lot this year, but Otto is a success story. He gets the win on him for 2024.


That being said, holy shit play Otto at SS for the love of god because if he can play "acceptably extremely unreliable SS" time, he's legit perfect as the bench infielder.

[fish16]

It might not be as reliable but do you think Fangraphs would use something that is “EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE” as you put it?

It’s painfully obvious to me that Otto Lopez is an extremely (to use your term) better defender and base stealer than Arraez.

they are currently using it, so yes, they would. They also periodically adjust their calculations, so even they acknowledge a deficiency in it not being a perfect stat. Baseball reference literally adjusted how they calculate WAR like 6 months ago and it led to a lot of multi war swings for different players. it's not a perfect stat, especially for defense. i think it greatly overvalues great defense. Obviously it's valuable, but these sites are fucking guessing with how to value it and weight it. For example, Andrelton Simmons on basbeall reference in 2017 and 2018 had war's of 7.1 and 6.8. On Fangraphs it was 4.8 and 4.3. In 2013 Fangraphs had him at 3.5 and Baseball reference had him at 6.7. How reliable of a stat is it if 2 sites trying to value the same thing are so vastly different? my opinion has been the same forever- i think they greatly overvalue the difference and impact between an elite defender and a bad defender vs an elite hitter and a bad hitter.

It's also painfully obvious to me that otto lopez sucks as a hitter and has bounced around different organizations for a reason.

[lou]

It's also painfully obvious to me that otto lopez sucks as a hitter and has bounced around different organizations for a reason.

Whenever you struggle with an eyeball test, just look at Hunter Pence's batting stance. That is the North Star. The ugliest things imaginable can sometimes work beautifully.


Otto is totally fine. He'll probably have a 1.2 WAR next year in 375 PA and that is, a good thing.

[fish16]

Whenever you struggle with an eyeball test, just look at Hunter Pence's batting stance. That is the North Star. The ugliest things imaginable can sometimes work beautifully.


Otto is totally fine. He'll probably have a 1.2 WAR next year in 375 PA and that is, a good thing.

i have no problem with lopez. he is just a guy. plays good defense, cant hit, somewhat versatile. no problem with the guy. i have a problem acting as if he is something other than a long term bench player at best. He doesnt do much of anything well with the bat. no real power, doesnt walk much, doesnt strike out a ton but not elite low levels, doesnt hit the ball particularly hard. Also, defensively he has great range but has below average arm strength, so that could be why he's not playing a ton of SS.

[lou]

i have no problem with lopez. he is just a guy. plays good defense, cant hit, somewhat versatile. no problem with the guy. i have a problem acting as if he is something other than a long term bench player at best. He doesnt do much of anything well with the bat. no real power, doesnt walk much, doesnt strike out a ton but not elite low levels, doesnt hit the ball particularly hard. Also, defensively he has great range but has below average arm strength, so that could be why he's not playing a ton of SS.

It appears the delta here is you just think he can't hit, versus the analytics and actual performance saying he's a higher .600 OPS/.700 hitter, which is average-ish at 2B. He's more than just "a guy" at a .675 OPS with this defense and base running, but yes it is a likely long term bench projection absent a true offensive improvement. No one is saying otherwise, beyond maybe the RHP splits hold and we can hope with that. Maybe the "just the guy" thing is the issue. Bride is just a guy. Brujan is just a guy. Bellozo is just a guy. Otto is a bit more than that IMO with a truly elite skill, and OK enough everything else besides hitting LHP which he can't do.

Also lets break down the reasoning.

Arm strength really doesn't matter at 2B to quib. That's going to matter a lot more for every other position besides 1B.

And yes that is why he is not a SS, but also it's comparison based as he is better than Edwards in defensive metrics so opportunity wise, play him there. There is optimism in range. For instance, Otto has a better arm than Berti (he does!) and Berti was good defensively because he covered major ground. Otto is covering major ground at 2B. Maybe he can do that at SS and is not just limited to that range at 2B? They are honestly stupid if they don't find out unless they know something via a mountain of minor league data which they might. I'd still play him at SS and see if lightning strikes as frankly, Edwards does not have it. Maybe Otto's range out weighs the arm similar to Berti.

Also, we can't go on a war path for Arraez (average exit velocity 12th percentile), and then cite Otto low hard hit rates (23rd percentile EV) as a reason he is a bum hitter. Similar to Arraez, one has to look at the whole package and everything else they do. Arraez has no real power, doesn't walk much, and doesn't hit the ball hard, but that in no way describes Arraez the same way it in no way describes Otto. Just see the post of average output for 2B, and Otto is aligning with that versus the other crap in the league. Offense is down. It matters.


This dude is totally fine. I think the debate point is, do we think he holds up for 2-3 years in a similar to Berti type manner, where then we feel comfortable trading Edwards, Serna, or Norby as they then would still have multiple 2B options. I think Otto can probably do that for reasons stated - defense looks great, base running is good, and hit profile says he is a .700 OPS hitter right now which is pretty good enough at 2B. If he can handle SS/3B on a "range" versus "arm" basis similar to Berti, that would work. But I have no idea because they barely play him there and they are fucking dumb for not doing that. The lineup is out today and again, Edwards at SS and Otto 2B. That is insane to me.

[fauowls44]

I disagree on "liking" him too much, and we have already gone over this and not sure now many times I have to say this, but I think Otto should be the team's backup IF, but at the same time, he may be showing more to be a (good) platoon starter against RHP if he is going to be a .725+ OPS bat against right handers with the defense/base running. Or, a bridge SS against RHP until they can get a better one as maybe he can do it. Where have I said he is phenomenal and should be the outright longterm starter over Edwards or Serna (I haven't)? Why can't one point out he is having a good year?

Season line - .260/.302/.369 (.671)
Expected slash - .269/.311/.397 (.708)
His season BABIP is .306. 86th percentile sprint speed with good K rate, so that is perhaps, a bit low.

So he is overall, underachieving by all indications. Mainly just on a little slugging, but it is underachieving. A SSS BABIP point doesn't out weigh the entire season here my dude. And no, I do not think he is a .900+ OPS bat like his September split and nowhere have I said that. He's hot. It happens. He's still a high .600/low .700 OPS bat more than likely


What is also dead average against RHP mean? Let's unpack what average at 2B is.

A dead average hitter at 2B (overall, no splits) is a .683 OPS (minimum PA 200)
Against RHP, this scales up slightly to .687 (minimum 150 PA).
Against LHP, this scales to .692 (minimum 100, PA, I have scaled the splits opportunity guys down a little)

So overall right now

Slightly below average overall hitter for a 2B... but his expected outcome says he is a little better. He's in the range of average here depending on the bloops dropping.

Above average hitter against RHP (.726, actual OPS right now on split). This is actually fairly notable. And he has a .320 BABIP against RHP so that isn't outrageous with his speed/contact. He's not overachieving here, and if he is, he's still over a .687 OPS. Where an average hitter + elite defender + very good base runner is.... a good platoon starter.

Pathetic against LHP and yes, we agree virtually unplayable. It is very bad.


So if you shield him on lefties, he's performing like an above average overall hitter at his position (maybe not by a lot, but by some and that is something) so saying he is dead average isn't an accurate statement. Then, you combine this with objectively good defense and base running, and all of a sudden he may be a very legitimate starter against RHP. Play the defense isn't quantifiable card all you want, but he is one of the best defenders in league by all the metrics and absent the floor dropping out (like Estrada in SF who is a good defender but decided to hit .590 this year), he's going to be a pretty good player. Even if that's a bench/platoon role player. Guys like this live for awhile on teams - like Jorge Mateo who is a good defender and lives around a .650 OPS. Otto is going to be good for this team for awhile if he is a .650 OPS bat, plays great defense, and is a great base runner.

Maybe he doesn't hold up, but this isn't a situation where the expected slash suggests doom and gloam (for instance, Bride's expected performance is .231/.317/.331 so the bottom is dropping out eventually for him) so there may be something viable here to have for a few years. I don't get why you and Fish16 bag on this guy so much. They plucked a solid dude for nothing off waivers, and there is objectively some upside hope here with the defense and K rate. There is nothing wrong about being "pleased" they may have a plus bench guy or platoon starter. Is it turning the organization around? No. But this is one less piece they need as we all know, Bruce doesn't spend money so what money there is can now go to something else. Otto is a win player development story. Let's be happy even if this may just be a good bench player only. I think Mateo is good slot comparable here. The team with all the minor league hitters still keeps and plays Mateo. Because defense matters. Yes he is hurt right now, but you get the comparison overall for the last few years. Otto can be a different version of that guy quickly for the Marlins. This is a good thing even if this year is his peak due to playing time.

To me, Otto is Jon Berti with slightly more upside. Probably not a starter on a good team, but he is just 25 in his first full season in the Majors and was once considered a fairly good prospect in Toronto, so I'm not going to say he can't develop a bit more.

Like I said, he's shown enough to be penciled in as a starter going into next season until someone can take the job from him and then he becomes the super utility guy. Maybe that's Sanoja...maybe it's Serna after a few months in AAA. But they got him for nothing and he's a solid MLB piece going forward who is cheap for a while...it's a win. Definitely one of the few bright spots this season.