2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Just to clarify, I don’t mean that they don’t view Bride as a 3B defensively but rather they do not view him as a starter next year at all (and not that I necessarily disagree with it). At least that’s my take away on making the defense worse - if they viewed him as a starting option, he’d get more playing time at 2B*/3B where we actually need starters. It could also just be “we trust how his defense plays, we just need his bat in the lineup to see if it plays so plug him in wherever” but I doubt it with how bad the need is for starters at those positions

*Not saying it’s a position of need, with Edwards balling and multiple 2B prospects in AAA. But Edwards is our SS until he’s pushed off, and still need starters until a prospect properly claims the role - especially if they do keep Norby down until months in next year for service time reasons. Also don’t mean he should be there over Otto, I mean non-Otto days where they have Brujan at 2B and Bride at 1B/DH

Burger has been a 3B since college. About the only argument I can see for him magically getting better at this point in his career is now he has more consistent coaching at the major league level aka better coaching…but if going that route, than Norby should be up for that lol.

I’d much rather see him getting reps at 1B where he doesn’t have much experience and could actually gain growth. I definitely understand the 1B/DH potential logjam, but if he’s trying to work a second position I’d rather see Burger getting reps in LF than 3B at this point - possibly just talking out my ass but he’s got decent speed and arm, I don’t see tools lacking it would just be a matter of learning the position/new reads on the ball. Which then gives flexibility to move guys around the field to get them in the line up/off days using the DH

I am inclined to thinking it is that bold with Bride. Maybe it's actually the same thing they are doing with Edwards and Burger - we know he can play 3B well enough as he's been in the minors for like a decade, what's 1B looking like for Bride just so we know? It's the same thing with Burger at 3B (or LF which I am into also) or Edwards at SS. They are trying him out, while they see if he can hit. I mean it's a little dumb as yes, we should know what Burger is at this point and maybe just install Bride at 3B for 6 weeks and pray. But does anything really matter here when we're in hail mary territory for some of these defensive alignments?

I'd rather play Otto at SS too the more I think about this. Just get Edwards to 2B. He is just going to be there. Otto RHP, Edwards LHP at SS here on out. That's my preference just to get a little film on Edwards at SS, but also see if Otto is more of an answer (bench wise as a backup). If he can hit right handers even a little and his defensive range is good even if his arm is bad, Otto starts really crafting a bench role here.

Maybe its this September 1 as I feel moderately confident they are doing a rookie eligibility thing for Norby for next year

C Whoever
1B Burger/Bride split
2B Edwards RHP / Norby or Bride LHP
SS Otto RHP / Edwards LHP
3B Burger/Bride split, maybe some Norby against left handers?
LF Norby RHP / ????
CF Sanchez RHP / Pache LHP
RF Stowers RHP / Hill LHP
DH ?????

Rivera and Brujan are those last 2 roster guys right now (Hensley is there for Norby) for the ????, but maybe they turn into Dane coming back from injury which helps LF/RF/DH and he should play every day for sure and hell, make it CF, and try out Johnston and Conine/Gray. Rosters expand so they could bring up Dane, Johnston, and Conine/Gray and see what happens.

Fun September maybe?

[lou]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ies-tommy-john

They are thinking about making innings limits for SP. 6 innings and can’t come out unless hurt, given up 4 ER, or 100 pitches.

fish16 is going to love this

[fish16]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ies-tommy-john

They are thinking about making innings limits for SP. 6 innings and can’t come out unless hurt, given up 4 ER, or 100 pitches.

fish16 is going to love this

That’s a truly awful idea that will at no point ever be implemented for several reasons

[Nick]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ies-tommy-john

They are thinking about making innings limits for SP. 6 innings and can’t come out unless hurt, given up 4 ER, or 100 pitches.

fish16 is going to love this

That shit is not baseball. GTFOH

[lou]

That’s a truly awful idea that will at no point ever be implemented for several reasons

It's probably not the right idea but they are trying to account for the issue of SP injuries/RP waves FWIW. I agree with the article the genie is out of the bottle and these guys aren't going to all turn into control pitchers when they've been brought up for a decade to throw max velocity and sliders.

I think the double hook DH is interesting - https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...tlantic-league. SP goes 5 innings or you lose the DH. I don't think awarding draft picks to teams who throw more SP innings make sense. It would have to be some kind of rule change that impacts game strategy. The DH is a natural fit to tweak since its entire inception is based on pitchers inability to hit so its tied to arms already. So earn those PA by throwing 5 innings. Exceptions for guys getting hurt, throwing 100 pitches, etc.

For me, I think the solution isn't messing with SP innings limits, its making the game rolling and get rid of excessive TV timeouts - A "4th inning" stretch (before 4th) to match the customary 7th inning stretch can be the two larger breaks in the game. No TV commercials in half inning changes - Get off the field, get to the plate. Jersey sponsors, overlaid ads on TV that run throughout the game. If European soccer can do it, there is no reason to not have BACARDI real big across the Marlins front jerseys. It'll all offset the revenue with in-game advertising + ideally a better product (hopefully?) to help declining viewership and speeding up the games. Now, you might ask but that has nothing to do with SP health so what's the point in this hard pivot, but along with this set up, is a new innings culture where SP and RP throw innings and mid-inning changes are highly frowned upon. Maybe you get 1 a game and someone has to be on base starting in the 7th inning and it has to be a game tying run, except for an injury sort of thing. Very limited exceptions. If the idea is SP protection, this will *hopefully* make managers think a little harder about throwing out a guy an extra inning understanding they may be trying to sneak a .1 or .2 IP with a good R/R or L/L matchup, but now the ability to swap out for a RP becomes more dangerous as a lineup turns over. This should decrease a volume of pitches on a strategy level, and more notably later game pitches over 80-90 pitches thrown where guys may be more gassed which is a higher injury probability. Basically, it's speeding up the game and managers have to advance the bullpen for the next inning swap when that happens. Maybe combine this with the double hook DH, and all of a sudden SP are going to be throwing 5 innings often, with speed up games.

I haven't worked this all out in my head and this is musing, so this is an ultimate "I don't know the answer" but I like that MLB is thinking about some things and all of this can kind of be pitched together in my view at an owner's meetings as you can tie SP health, to game innings, to speeding up games, to how to advertise if that happens, to DH strategy, etc. It is an interesting discussion point. I am all in favor of all of this ultimately - larger bases, pitch clocks, robo umps (also speeds things up you'd think), less commercials, more ads, penalties for excessive RP waves versus throwing a SP, etc.

[fish16]

idk if you're reading that wrong or i am, but i read it as a 6 inning mandatory stint for SP, not a 6 inning maximum. Neither would work nor is either a good idea. Just stupid and impossible to implement. So if a guy is getting completely blown up in the first few innings he just has to eat it and get crushed? How would that help injuries? If a pitcher is giving up less than 3 runs in the first 5 innings and hasnt thrown 100 pitches, they are usually going 6 anyways. It really just takes away openers and the idea of getting guys out of the game after 1 or 2 times through the order.

A pitcher going a certain amount of innings to keep the DH is more plausible, but how is that good for the fan experience? Pitchers hitting was the biggest waste of time and led to offense going down

[lou]

Berry hit a HR last night, since 5/25 - 221 PA, .310/.380/.467, 8.6% BB, 16.7% K, 6 HR, .355 BABIP

I mean Johnston has basically hit like that for 4 seasons in AA/AAA and is considered a nothing prospect, but what's up here with 6th overall pick pedigree? He was ranked top 10 by FG, BA, and MLB pre-draft in 2022. We all agree they should have taken a position (Brooks Lee probably) over him, but it's not like the entire industry didn't think he was a good prospect and a clear top half first rounder. I mean guys fail (Andrew Vaughn) and it happens and there have been the notes it is weak contact, but Berry in this stretch is out hitting similar prospects (Torkelson, Vaughn, and Bleday) at similar levels. None of them are great, but still. I bet Bleday and Torkelson have 5-10 year careers here on out even if not spectacular. Their predraft grades are Bleday 50/55 on power, Tokelson 70/70, Vaughn 60/60, and Berry was a 50/60. I mean it's not like Torkelson who can really get it, but he's similar to the other two and there is barrel upside here if he cleans up a swing path?

I'm not sure what is the basis for this rather good slash, but the 6th overall pick, floor mid-first round prospect at time of draft, I feel should at least get some notice from the scouts for doing this? The dropoff from the midseason pipeline and FG articles seems like a clear miss unless this contact is really that feeble. Are these all bloops and dinks with an occasional XBH so nothing to be excited about? Or is this a transformation? Would really love to see a scouting report update as this sample is being over shadowed by how bad he was first 7 weeks. He's been pretty good for 11-12 weeks now and something has had to have changed. That's a hard statline to fall into with not an outrageous BABIP over a large sample. I am hopeful, but would like to see some real words on this.

[lou]

idk if you're reading that wrong or i am, but i read it as a 6 inning mandatory stint for SP, not a 6 inning maximum. Neither would work nor is either a good idea. Just stupid and impossible to implement. So if a guy is getting completely blown up in the first few innings he just has to eat it and get crushed? How would that help injuries? If a pitcher is giving up less than 3 runs in the first 5 innings and hasnt thrown 100 pitches, they are usually going 6 anyways. It really just takes away openers and the idea of getting guys out of the game after 1 or 2 times through the order.

A pitcher going a certain amount of innings to keep the DH is more plausible, but how is that good for the fan experience? Pitchers hitting was the biggest waste of time and led to offense going down

6 minimum. And I am with you it doesn't really work as layed out in that article for reasons you just said. It would need to be workshopped.

I think their argument for the DH pull would be, the fan experience is improved with not having 25 of the best 75 SP in the league shelved at all times by instituting some mechanism to keep them all healthier, versus seeing some pinch hitters for a pitcher later in the game (pitchers would probably still rarely bat ya know). This goes along with - let them throw more and not encourage max effortness so they don't hurt themsevles as much knowing they really need to be somewhat efficient to get through 5 innings. I'm not sure it works, but I think it is a discussion point in how to help injuries.

[lou]

Also Mack hit 2 HR two nights ago - .241/.321/.468 (.279 BABIP), 9.3% BB / 25.1% K in AA at 21 years old all of a sudden. 19 HR.

He's 2nd in the Southern League overall with those HR (ahead of Carson Williams I might add). He's 2nd in OPS vs RHP too (.848 OPS platoon split). This is ahead of Matt Shaw by a few ticks. Another huge prospect. So comparatively, he is performing well with what he is facing versus some real top end guys. .586 split vs LHP which is the obvious major issue. He's a lefty bat remember. This is Jesus Sanchez territory quickly. Joe Mack is a thing. Remember, he is a New York prospect (cold season) and those guys lag behind southern players who get more sun. This might be a true development jump of a guy catching up to the experience. This is impressive at 21 years old. Remember before this, he had a 1.000+ OPS in A+ for 60 PA before a swift promotion. His overall season line both levels is 446 PA(!!!) .254/.341/.481, 10.5% BB / 24.2% K, .298 BABIP, 21 HR. All sorts of yes going on with this being a catcher.

Perfect world Mack is a 100+ game starter at catcher versus mostly right handers, and Ramirez is a backup catcher getting most left handers. Ramirez can eat at 1B/DH the rest of the time.

Berry not sure about, Mack I am very encouraged. I think he is going to tick up prospect lists quickly if he ends strong like this and doesn't taper off.

[Nick]

I don't hate the Double Hook idea. The strategy of utilizing a good pinch hitter I think is something that's been lost since universal DH.

[Nick]

Also Mack hit 2 HR two nights ago - .241/.321/.468 (.279 BABIP), 9.3% BB / 25.1% K in AA at 21 years old all of a sudden. 19 HR.

He's 2nd in the Southern League overall with those HR (ahead of Carson Williams I might add). He's 2nd in OPS vs RHP too (.848 OPS platoon split). This is ahead of Matt Shaw by a few ticks. Another huge prospect. So comparatively, he is performing well with what he is facing versus some real top end guys. .586 split vs LHP which is the obvious major issue. He's a lefty bat remember. This is Jesus Sanchez territory quickly. Joe Mack is a thing. Remember, he is a New York prospect (cold season) and those guys lag behind southern players who get more sun. This might be a true development jump of a guy catching up to the experience. This is impressive at 21 years old. Remember before this, he had a 1.000+ OPS in A+ for 60 PA before a swift promotion. His overall season line both levels is 446 PA(!!!) .254/.341/.481, 10.5% BB / 24.2% K, .298 BABIP, 21 HR. All sorts of yes going on with this being a catcher.

Perfect world Mack is a 100+ game starter at catcher versus mostly right handers, and Ramirez is a backup catcher getting most left handers. Ramirez can eat at 1B/DH the rest of the time.

Berry not sure about, Mack I am very encouraged. I think he is going to tick up prospect lists quickly if he ends strong like this and doesn't taper off.

I'd also add to Berry and Mack, Pensacola, I believe, is historically one of the toughest places to hit in all of the minor leagues.

[lou]

I'd also add to Berry and Mack, Pensacola, I believe, is historically one of the toughest places to hit in all of the minor leagues.

Yea, and it goes deeper too (some in Jax of course).


Martorella very good since 7/9

Serna has a 1.000 OPS in 66 PA and would still be hitting .280+ once BABIP corrected as he's on a bender. This is his first taste of AA so a promotion explosion. The best kind.

Ramirez .850 OPS since trade

DDLS whiffing a ton but hitting bombs

Sanoja has 12 hits last 6 games and is up to 413 PA, .305/.371/.462 (.309 BABIP) in AAA. 9.7% BB / 5.6% K. Not a typo with the whiffs.


There are a lot of encouraging developments here all of a sudden even if some aren't hitting (Pauley, Marsee, etc.)

[fish16]

id take it very slow with mack. he is somehow still just 21. Give him the whole year in AAA next year. Let the bat develop. I'd also like to see them promote serna to AAA when they promote norby up here soon. he will probably stuggle but i always like to give guys who master a level the opportunity to get a few PA's under their belt at the next level before starting the next year at that level. Gives them the offseason to work on what will inevitably be some weaknesses in his game that get exposed in his first taste of AAA.

I still highly doubt berry becomes anything at this point other than what colin moran was at the big league level, which was my bad comp for him when he was drafted. There just doesnt seem to be much to his game. The power just is not there. Even in this 3 month stretch of success, it's only 6 hr's over 3 months and only 11 doubles.

[fish16]

sanoja i hadnt really looked into until recently and he seems very rays-ish. When i think rays i think high OBP and good plate discipline with a lot of walks. He reminds me of margot with better plate discipline. No crazy speed, no significant power, but low k's, high walks (margot didnt walk much), decent SB numbers, and low slugging.

Wouldnt mind seeing what he has in September for a month and then start him in AAA again next year and hope he mashes and breaks the door down for a roster spot by june

[Nick]

I don't think there's any reason to rush Mack because he's got Ramirez, Banfield and Fortes in front of him.

Also, Banfield's not setting the world on fire, but with his defense, a dude that hits .200 with some pop seems like a perfect backup for Ramirez.