2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

My $0.02 on the Adames stuff ….. he’d be nice to have but we have a track record of NOT signing a player we need even when they’re sitting right there waiting for us with a welcome mat. Why we’re penciling it in a nearly a done deal is beyond me. I’d like to be surprised, but I have 1% confidence it’ll happen.
can’t wait for him to resign with the Brewers and take it out of Bruce’s hands completely so he won’t even have to pretend we were interested.

we’re in the same endless cycle of “IF everyone is healthy we’ll be great in 2 years”.

im not trying to be total pessimist, but track record is a better indication than future potential, especially with this group.

exactly, the whole "look at our depth chart in 2 theoretical years" is tiresome. Especially when half the guys havent played in the big leagues yet

[lou]

My $0.02 on the Adames stuff ….. he’d be nice to have but we have a track record of NOT signing a player we need even when they’re sitting right there waiting for us with a welcome mat. Why we’re penciling it in a nearly a done deal is beyond me. I’d like to be surprised, but I have 1% confidence it’ll happen.
can’t wait for him to resign with the Brewers and take it out of Bruce’s hands completely so he won’t even have to pretend we were interested.

we’re in the same endless cycle of “IF everyone is healthy we’ll be great in 2 years”.

im not trying to be total pessimist, but track record is a better indication than future potential, especially with this group.

Who is doing that, because it's not me.


But I will say, I am 95% confident Adames and Kim are signed by three teams - Dodgers, Tigers, and Marlins. Everyone else has other needs/options/payroll issues/prospects coming quick to not clog the deck for years. Those three need those two the most and can shuffle guys around them, and the Marlins are # 1 on a need basis even if last in expectations of signing them. All of us expect Detroit to out-bid (6/$140m?) and Dodgers to say fuck the luxury tax + Kim likely wants to stay on west coast, but one can say - this is the only real competition for them if they bump up into $110-130m land which they can afford under Bruce $90m payrolls. Maybe the Dodgers or Tigers have other ideas and don't want to spend that? Also, maybe Peter expects them to fall apart ala Carl Crawford and the juice isn't worth the squeeze for his 1 major acquisition? That's also reasonable.


Just someone walk me through the game board here if you're Peter:


-Bruce spends average $90m on payroll. This could dip $10-15m lower if they truly mail it in.

-This costs roughly $60m next year. All those guys are making the team below with what they are showing this year or prospect upside.

C - Ramirez, Fortes/Banfield
1B - Burger, DDLS
2B - Edwards, Otto (or Bride)
SS - _______
3B - _______
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Eury midseason, Bellozzo AAA)
RHP - ______, Bender, Faucher, Cronin, Maldonado
LHP - Nardi, _______

Dead - Garcia, Go, early season Eury IL money


-Top options for the blank lines

SS - Nothing, moving Edwards over as a bottom defender in baseball and keeping Sanoja and Mesa Jr. on roster with Sanoja more of an infielder

3B - Bride

OF - Dane Train

RHP - Keeping Bellozzo or Curry as a longman and not having a high leverage RP

LHP - Simpson? Monteverde? They need a cheap lefty for sure and don't have a backup option unless they just love Simpson quickly.


-Prospect wise AA/AAA for depth call ups:

C - Mack

1B - Martorella and Berry

2B - Serna

SS - _______

3B - Pauley

OF - _____, maybe Pauley and Martorella here, and nothing huge but guys like Marsee, Sasaki, and Pintar exist

SP - Bellozzo, Curry, Snelling, maybe Mazur could be midseason guys. There is also Eury midseason.

RP - They have some inventory arms like Munoz on top of Bellozzo/Curry, and I say they have a knack for finding RP. McMillian could be good ya know. This is fine with a SP trickle down.



So all roads lead here to a SS, 3B, and right handed OF preferably a CF, and high leverage RP. They have depth everywhere else.



I understand none of us disagree on they need a SS and Kim/Adames is a pie in the sky, but how is this money going to be spent if it's not them (see underline below)? The FA options are:

SS - Adames, Kim

3B - Bregman, Chapman, Y. Moncada, Suarez, J. Davis

OF (right handed) - Soto, Bader, O'Neill, Santander, Teoscar, and drops off fast. Bader is only CF here, and maybe O'Neil can dabble there

RP - Plenty of options



The only folks that make sense here are Adames and Kim, or, it's stop-gap options with Bader/O'Neill and Moncada/Davis sort of thing and that is just lighting money on fire the same way they signed Segura, Cueto, Garcia, and Soler (although he was good 1 year).




So trade two good SP pitchers (Luzardo and Garrett/Cabrera) to get the younger bats needed, and then you're closer to $50m in payroll, and sign stopgap SP with $10-40m dollars based on previous Bruce budgets? Is this some whatever guy and Bruce saves $30m (I understand most of you will gravitate to the underlined). They could afford Blake Snell in this scenario so all this "Adames or Kim" talk just moves to Snell, Fried, or whoever.

or

Sign Adames/Kim, trade Luzardo ($$) for 3B/OF (Campbell and Meidroth on Boston, etc.), and then sign a stop gap SP for around $10m for 2-3 guys (1 SP) with the money saved from Luzardo?

or

What else? Do nothing? Operate like an asshole and sign Yoan Moncada and Harrison Bader and pray to god?



This is the point I feel is failing to be understood because of the whole Bruce is cheap and won't do anything - Peter has removed so much payroll with Arraez, Jazz, Puk, Rogers, and DLC, and gotten so many prospects they will try out and plug depth chart spots, that there is just payroll now to spend on things, and they only really need to devote payroll to 1-2 spots. They don't need a lot of guys. The books are cleared for years. Credit to Peter.

So this boils down to

(1) Trade multiple SP for bats, Sign SP/RP for 2025 which is likely 1 year guys as why devote longer with all the arms coming. So this is money on pitching not hitting and they could be very expensive 1-2 year guys.

(2) Sign Adames/Kim, trade 1 SP for more bats (Luzardo), sign 1-3 stop gap options, and last 1-2 roster spots might be club controlled like Bride or Bellozzo. $90m payroll give/take and the team looks objectively very good. This is the best case scenario to me, absent major SP isn't signed in # 1 as that would also work. But goes back to prior posts - why spend big money on pitching which is more volatile?

(3) They give no fucks and fill out the roster with Moncada and Bader types, and/or Bride, Dane, Mesa Jr., Sanoja, Bellozzo, and some Rule V left handed relievers. This is an offseason repeat - which they got drilled on this entire year. Bruce saves some money and the deadline though, is extremely exciting again. I'd like to think they have learned from that mistake.


So where's the money going as it does exist in large form? Bruce pockets, Adames/Kim, or a series of SP trades for bats and then they sign SP? We can all agree to disagree here - my point is, there is a clear path for Adames/Kim only as the only things in front of them are Bruce, the Dodgers, and Tigers.

[Nick]

I just feel like they'll keep the payroll as low as possible, blame it on we're rebuilding and want to see the kids play. They'll eventually put all their eggs in one basket, sign 3 or 4 Free Agents one year. Then blow the thing up the minute things go south. It's the Marlins way.

[lou]

I just feel like they'll keep the payroll as low as possible, blame it on we're rebuilding and want to see the kids play. They'll eventually put all their eggs in one basket, sign 3 or 4 Free Agents one year. Then blow the thing up the minute things go south. It's the Marlins way.

But we're the Rays now*

[Nick]

But we're the Rays now*

The Rays wouldn't sign Willy Adames for 5 years/$110 million

[lou]

exactly, the whole "look at our depth chart in 2 theoretical years" is tiresome. Especially when half the guys havent played in the big leagues yet

except, that's exactly how teams view things as they anticipate guys with 6-7 years of service time, many with prospect pedigree (Brinson) or analytic profiles (DLC) so they will get their shots no doubt even if they underperform and won't clog the pipes for them with multi-year contracts, and then reviewing how potential multi-year free agent contracts play out with their expectations on top of that.

The team literally kept Eury Perez down to think about 2029, and Max Meyer down half the year because they are thinking about 2028. Previous to this two years ago, they kept Garrett down to think about 2028. They are *probably* keeping DDLS down because they are thinking about 2031, and will *probably* keep Ramirez in the minors until late June 2025 because they are thinking about a 2028 super2 status. Maybe this is internally tiresome to you, but sticking your head in the sand to refuse to acknowledge this is an intricate dance speaks for itself. From the guy who says lets be efficient, brushing aside analysis about being smart and efficient with what you have within the budget constraints of Bruce (which is the problem here), is tough to reconcile. The team absolutely has to be thinking about 27-29 with every medium level or larger move as that's probably the main contending windows as it involves *probably* the bats having their feet wet, and White/Noble/Snelling/Mazur/Fulton joining Sandy/Eury/Cabrera/Garrett/Weathers all at the same moment.


The very short answer is they have money to do the SS splash, or, it's going to be 1 year stop-gaps for years as there is literally nothing interesting coming in free agency. There are no mid-tier SS/3B/CF coming so its trading for them all with SP, and then using the money on pitching as an alternative. And frankly, maybe that is a better idea to just ride the wave of 1 year pitching options and blow out Luzardo, Garrett, and Sandy to fix the bat issues as you still have Eury, Cabrera, Max, White, Noble, Snelling, etc. in the pipes with a slew of RP candidates. Or, Bruce is so fucking cheap he just does not care. I do think Bruce cares, just within a $90m budget for right now.

I have no issue if someone wants to say Sandy, Luzardo, and Garrett get moved at this upcoming deadline 2025 to *really* fix the bat issues once and for all and the 2026 staff becomes Eury, Cabrera, Max, Weathers, Snelling, and they have a ton of money for 2-4 more prominent pitchers as they'll absolutely not need any bats then.

And this is my question at a lowest common denominator - they have *a lot* of money within the Bruce budgets for years. Where is it going, as the only things they can spend it on are (1) Adames/Kim or (2) Starting Pitching, for years and years with who is becoming a free agent (I am eliminating true studs like Soto of course). No one internal - not even a Eury extension - will be expensive for 5 years (excluding Sandy's existing contract but that is accounted for), so that doesn't impact anything they can do short or medium turn. Peter cut that much money since he took over which is frankly great, and more can happen with some of Luzardo, Garrett, Burger, and Sanchez, and especially Sandy. And they have replacements on paper theoretically. The only other option is (3) they are assholes and sign more Garcias, Solers, Seguras, and Cuetos, but this is a new regime now so I find this unlikely, or (4) Bruce pockets it and runs sub $70m payrolls for a very long time, and its more of the same as last offseason - Tim Anderson and Nick Gordons - and they keep wasting this SP as they won't have the bats in place for that magical day they mostly get all healthy which will eventually come. I find 3 and 4 unlikely because Bendix is smarter than Kim it seems, and dipping payroll even more would be quite "something" with this staff over next 5 years, but boy do they know how to disappoint. So if its not Adames/Kim, it is a literal SP blowout, and then using what was shot out to sign SP, but SP is a worse investment than bats. So I don't know how everything doesn't get funneled back to this front office that Adames/Kim is a literal 5 year priority and this is the perfect storm to jump in that pool. I am cautiously optimistic here. As stated - they did not get a premier SS in the 15-20 guys they got back and Edwards clearly can't do it. The whole road has been plowed here IMO with the Dodgers and Tigers the last hurdles with other teams who may really want one of them, and now eyes on Bruce where they just have to beat 1 of them in the market. We can hope.

[lou]

The Rays wouldn't sign Willy Adames for 5 years/$110 million

You're right - they gave $220m to Wander Franco and Zach Eflin. As they could afford that around the rest of their team they viewed on a 5-7 year level.

Adames/Kim is likely half that. Or, add in keeping Sandy, keeping Burger/Sanchez for a bit, and giving Cabrera an extension, and it nets off to around the same $220m. The Rays got 14 service years with that sum. Hypothetically, the Marlins get 16-18 service years with the same expenditure of money here (plus likely options). Wander of course had supreme upside so that makes sense, but let's not sell a Cy Young too short here and Cabrera's upside is to the moon whether fish16 wants to quib on him.

It's because both of these teams can afford to do that and you have to pick your spots as a small budget team. The Guardians picked this for Ramirez and Gimenez as another example. Yes, these are all internal extensions for these two other teams, but the Marlins do not have -any- players to do that with outside Cabrera right now, Eury when he shows he is healthy (post 2025), and maybe Max really blossoms in a year. These are all pitchers though and not Wander(SS), Ramirez(3B), and Gimenez(2B) who of course get more money as bats. Hunter Greene is a top end comp and he got $53m guaranteed. Way different ball game here.

Dare I say, the Marlins have similar depth to the Rays (excluding top end guys like C. Williams, Caminero, etc.) to plug all the spots in their lineup so they can afford to do this with a real need on their end, whether it's a SS, or blowing out pitching for a SS/other controlled bats, and then signing pitching to replace whoever they trade.

I said this above - is FA SP a better investment as it's one or the other, or the third option, Bruce is even cheaper than he has been the last 3 years which in word, would be disappointing.

[Nick]

You're right - they gave $220m to Wander Franco and Zach Eflin. As they could afford that around the rest of their team they viewed on a 5-7 year level.

Adames/Kim is likely half that. Or, add in keeping Sandy, keeping Burger/Sanchez for a bit, and giving Cabrera an extension, and it nets off to around the same $220m. The Rays got 14 service years with that sum. Hypothetically, the Marlins get 16-18 service years with the same expenditure of money here (plus likely options). Wander of course had supreme upside so that makes sense, but let's not sell a Cy Young too short here and Cabrera's upside is to the moon whether fish16 wants to quib on him.

It's because both of these teams can afford to do that and you have to pick your spots as a small budget team. The Guardians picked this for Ramirez and Gimenez as another example. Yes, these are all internal extensions for these two other teams, but the Marlins do not have -any- players to do that with outside Cabrera right now, Eury when he shows he is healthy (post 2025), and maybe Max really blossoms in a year. These are all pitchers though and not Wander(SS), Ramirez(3B), and Gimenez(2B) who of course get more money as bats. Hunter Greene is a top end comp and he got $53m guaranteed. Way different ball game here.

Dare I say, the Marlins have similar depth to the Rays (excluding top end guys like C. Williams, Caminero, etc.) to plug all the spots in their lineup so they can afford to do this with a real need on their end, whether it's a SS, or blowing out pitching for a SS/other controlled bats, and then signing pitching to replace whoever they trade.

I said this above - is FA SP a better investment as it's one or the other, or the third option, Bruce is even cheaper than he has been the last 3 years which in word, would be disappointing.

C'mon you're going to throw in Eflin with Wander Franco? Eflin was $40 million of that, and btw is not with them any more. Wander Franco was the biggest prospect in years and supposed to be a surefire Top 5 player in the league at SS at 21 years old. He was already in their organization not a free agent. I don't think this is a comparable situation to signing Adames as a free agent.

[lou]

C'mon you're going to throw in Eflin with Wander Franco? Eflin was $40 million of that, and btw is not with them any more. Wander Franco was the biggest prospect in years and supposed to be a surefire Top 5 player in the league at SS at 21 years old. He was already in their organization not a free agent. I don't think this is a comparable situation to signing Adames as a free agent.

Yes because it's purely on organizational needs and $$$$. They are just dollar signs. There is no "Eflin" for SS/3B/CF out there or of course that would be the target. The Rays spent $220m on players they wanted for 14 years.


See the post above, the short version is this costs roughly $60m next year. This is going to happen. These guys will be given long leashes on the team. I don't think anyone disagrees here they will try every guy here for awhile.

C - Ramirez, Fortes/Banfield
1B - Burger, DDLS (Martorella too)
2B - Edwards, Otto (or Bride) (Serna too)
SS - _______
3B - _______
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Eury midseason, Bellozzo/Curry AAA)
RHP - ______, Bender, Faucher, Cronin, Maldonado
LHP - Nardi, _______

Dead - Garcia, Go, early season Eury IL money



Bruce has spent around $190m on payroll last two seasons. Before that, $80m. So the range is $80-95m.



Where is this money going as there is nothing but Adames/Kim and FA SP in free agency for their needs, and outside that, it's Moncada/Bader types.

Understanding if Luzardo is moved they have even more.



They should sign Adames/Kim for 5 years. At a lot of money as it doesn't matter for what they have coming. Defer some of it to 2030-2033. Who cares. Not a big deal.

Trade Luzardo to Boston for Campbell(CF)/Meidroth(3B) and a FV40+ range RHP starter years away. I've posted this - they need a lefty big time and have a ton of young OF.

And then have $10+m to spend on 3 pitchers. One starter for 1-2 years and high leverage 1 year relievers. This is a thing in FA.

This is all under 2023 and 2024 opening day payrolls.

Adames/Kim do not impact budget decisions until minimum 2028, or 2029. Years to figure it out. And then, it means they have to trade Garrett and Burger sort of thing. Big deal. They have 1B/DH in the pipes and arms. Years to figure out.



So yes, the money is all relative here based on team need. The Rays spent it. The Guardians spent it. They are both cheap as Bruce. The Pirates spent it too (Reynolds, Keller, Hates). The Pirates. Pittsburgh! I think it goes without saying Skenes is coming too.


Why do we believe the Marlins will regress in payroll with less team needs than any point of the last 5 years, after a completely disastrous 2023-24 offseason to boot?

[Nick]

Yes because it's purely on organizational needs and $$$$. They are just dollar signs. There is no "Eflin" for SS/3B/CF out there or of course that would be the target. The Rays spent $220m on players they wanted for 14 years.


See the post above, the short version is this costs roughly $60m next year. This is going to happen. These guys will be given long leashes on the team. I don't think anyone disagrees here they will try every guy here for awhile.

C - Ramirez, Fortes/Banfield
1B - Burger, DDLS (Martorella too)
2B - Edwards, Otto (or Bride) (Serna too)
SS - _______
3B - _______
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Eury midseason, Bellozzo/Curry AAA)
RHP - ______, Bender, Faucher, Cronin, Maldonado
LHP - Nardi, _______

Dead - Garcia, Go, early season Eury IL money



Bruce has spent around $190m on payroll last two seasons. Before that, $80m. So the range is $80-95m.



Where is this money going as there is nothing but Adames/Kim and FA SP in free agency for their needs, and outside that, it's Moncada/Bader types.

Understanding if Luzardo is moved they have even more.



They should sign Adames/Kim for 5 years. At a lot of money as it doesn't matter for what they have coming. Defer some of it to 2030-2033. Who cares. Not a big deal.

Trade Luzardo to Boston for Campbell(CF)/Meidroth(3B) and a FV40+ range RHP starter years away. I've posted this - they need a lefty big time and have a ton of young OF.

And then have $10+m to spend on 3 pitchers. One starter for 1-2 years and high leverage 1 year relievers. This is a thing in FA.

This is all under 2023 and 2024 opening day payrolls.

Adames/Kim do not impact budget decisions until minimum 2028, or 2029. Years to figure it out. And then, it means they have to trade Garrett and Burger sort of thing. Big deal. They have 1B/DH in the pipes and arms. Years to figure out.



So yes, the money is all relative here based on team need. The Rays spent it. The Guardians spent it. They are both cheap as Bruce. The Pirates spent it too (Reynolds, Keller, Hates). The Pirates. Pittsburgh! I think it goes without saying Skenes is coming too.


Why do we believe the Marlins will regress in payroll with less team needs than any point of the last 5 years, after a completely disastrous 2023-24 offseason to boot?

They regressed in payroll after they went to the playoffs why is it unthinkable that they would have a lower payroll after they cleaned house on pretty much all their healthy players that made any notable amount of money?

[Nick]

Also, Wander Franco's contract had him making only $15 million total in the first 4 years of that contract and then $167 million in the last 7 years, without a no-trade clause. That's some Loria shit right there. Who knows how much they would've ended up paying him before they dealt him.

You're not going to be able to pull that shit with a 30 year old Free Agent Willy Adames.

[Todd]

I hate to break up this argument of hypotheticals, but I really wish the home uniforms said MARLINS

[rmc523]

Who is doing that, because it's not me.


But I will say, I am 95% confident Adames and Kim are signed by three teams - Dodgers, Tigers, and Marlins. Everyone else has other needs/options/payroll issues/prospects coming quick to not clog the deck for years. Those three need those two the most and can shuffle guys around them, and the Marlins are # 1 on a need basis even if last in expectations of signing them. All of us expect Detroit to out-bid (6/$140m?) and Dodgers to say fuck the luxury tax + Kim likely wants to stay on west coast, but one can say - this is the only real competition for them if they bump up into $110-130m land which they can afford under Bruce $90m payrolls. Maybe the Dodgers or Tigers have other ideas and don't want to spend that? Also, maybe Peter expects them to fall apart ala Carl Crawford and the juice isn't worth the squeeze for his 1 major acquisition? That's also reasonable.

…


So where's the money going as it does exist in large form? Bruce pockets, Adames/Kim, or a series of SP trades for bats and then they sign SP? We can all agree to disagree here - my point is, there is a clear path for Adames/Kim only as the only things in front of them are Bruce, the Dodgers, and Tigers.

I said Why we’re penciling it in a nearly a done deal is beyond me.

and your response is who’s doing that, not me…..and then your immediate next sentence is you’re 95% sure we’re one of 3 teams to sign them….


we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

ive said it plenty of times - I’m happy to be wrong, but I’ll believe it when I see it

[lou]

They regressed in payroll after they went to the playoffs why is it unthinkable that they would have a lower payroll after they cleaned house on pretty much all their healthy players that made any notable amount of money?

I think it's pretty easy for the decision makers to look at a 33-14 one run game record and say, yea we aren't close and Sandy is hurt. Is $17 million (to get back to 2023 end of year payroll as it ballooned with Robertson, etc.), enough to fix this mess? Or give them $22+ million and kick Anderson off this team. Does $22m in free agents fix this team? That probably affords Chapman or Candelario at 3B, and a bench bat/good reliever?

They should have signed a 3B (because along with SS, there is nothing coming), but they opted against it for Tim Anderson and Bruce saving money. TBH, this team is a mess looking in hindsight with Bell struggling, Arraez defense cratering, Anderson sucks, Brujan sucks, Burger can't play 3B, DLC never caught up to analytics, and Gordon never caught up to prospect status. And then, the SP injuries.

Also let's talk payroll. $92 million opening day 2024 approximately

C - Fortes, Bethancourt ($)
1B - Bell ($$)
2B - Arraez ($$)
SS - Anderson ($), Brujan
3B - Burger, Bride/CC
LF - DLC, Gordon
CF - Jazz ($)
RF - Sanchez ($), Garcia ($$)

SP - Luzardo($), Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers($), Weathers (Puk injury replacement, Max injury replacement)
RP - Scott ($), Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Hoeing, Soriano, Smith/CC, CC

IL - Sandy($$)



So this is $60m approximately in 2025 with a vastly improved farm system on top of this. I note, wouldn't a $15-20m Candelario or Chapman look pretty good at 3B right now, to then move a SP for some SS/CF help and they'd have money to do that? They fucked up there just like they fucked up with Correa.


C - Ramirez, Fortes/Banfield
1B - Burger($), DDLS
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - _______
3B - _______
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez($)

SP - Sandy($$$), Luzardo($$), Garrett($), Cabrera($), Weathers, Max
RHP - ______, Bender, Faucher, Cronin, Maldonado/Bellozzo/Curry
LHP - Nardi, _______

Dead - Garcia($$), Go($), early season Eury IL money


I'm not saying all these guys like DDLS or Ramirez or Stowers and Otto or Sanoja are going to work out, but I will say they get extended looks so they are just there and going to play like them or not. Practically, I bet they get some players here like it looks like they are getting one with Edwards.

I expect them to make some fairly significant moves as there is money within the Bruce budgets and trade assets (SP) they can use, which if Luzardo opens more money. I don't expect payroll to be slashed by a third after Bendix also cleared $10+m this deadline to lower 2024 to close to $80m. Bruce got some fun money there moving Scott, Jazz, Rogers, Puk, etc. Maybe I am wrong, but I'll be really surprised if this plan is the 2025 equivalent of Anderson, Gordon, and Brujan for those blank lines and just internally promoting relievers and running a dramatically lower payroll bottom 1-2 in baseball. A drop to $70m would be very surprising to me in a pure mail it in WTF are they doing.

Like we can hate Bruce as he will only go around $90m and he should be going to $130m overnight, but we're in that sandbox right now where there is plenty of money for what they actually need. Peter cleared it out and got young guys. This isn't a dramatic analysis here. So I don't get this doom and gloom. This is the first time in awhile the FO has showed a real blueprint.

So (1) Adames/Kim/Chapman with a real plant the flag move, (2) SP moved and SP signed, or they do (3) cheap Moncada deals, and/or (4) Bruce pockets and does not give AF and treats 2025 as a rebuild year at sub $70m.

I don't know what will happen, but I imagine some real wheeling and dealing and it's a version of 1 and 2 and they get at least two of SS and 3B/OF (maybe they cheap out on the third bat with Bride/Dane) and 1 more SP is moved, versus 3 and 4 depression. I think they know they have to do something for the fans/market. Its right in front of them.

[lou]

I said Why we’re penciling it in a nearly a done deal is beyond me.

and your response is who’s doing that, not me…..and then your immediate next sentence is you’re 95% sure we’re one of 3 teams to sign them….


we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

ive said it plenty of times - I’m happy to be wrong, but I’ll believe it when I see it

Which does not mean I am penciling them in.

It means - they have the ability to do this move on personnel and payroll levels and this is a stark contrast to "they can't afford him crowd."

They can, it's a choice to not spend. It's not an excuse. They can't afford Soto. They can afford Adames/Kim. Or they can continue to half-ass it. But this deadline doesn't say that to me.