2024 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Yes this is it nearly completely. Or, Justin Turner who wants to chase rings not be a mentor to kid bats for similar money. That's the guy they can't get.

Miami is an attractive life destination for someone who wants the bucks if the team is also good for a veteran who wants to not get killed. Which the Marlins have a top 5 pitching situation very arguably and a lot of hope coming with the bats. There is a real plan here and the Marlins are in much better shape internally than non-baseball fans think. The problem is just, Bruce won't spend to get it over the top. The Giants are said to be a top landing spot for Adames. If money is relatively equal, the Marlins have a better longterm set up with their SP and Adames is Dominican so its gonna be a bit closer to home. He would pick Miami quickly IMO if those are his 1A and 1B options and each is in the $120-140m range.

But also to mention - look how Chapman, Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, etc. aren't getting signed and Boras looks terrible. The Marlins could swoop in and be a FA like that's savior as those guys are clearly only money oriented with the contracts they backed themselves in. I have been thinking, Chapman might make a lot of sense as a "cheaper Adames" and these hypothetical trades that get popped out there maybe should be focused on SS, as Chapman does look amazing. He's opting out of 2/$36 quickly and I don't see why he can't get 4/$80m from the Marlins. Last year of that deal may be rough, but you have a lot of club controlled guys, and he has a 3+ WAR pace for 7 years now and looks better than ever maybe. Frankly, Bruce should sign *BOTH* of them and I bet you can do it with a $100m payroll which is fucking nothing. That's how bad Bruce Sherman is. Keep all the pitching, sign Adames and Chapman, trade a major minor leaguer (including Noble) for a club controlled CF for right now, and a keep every arm + Adames + Chapman + a FV50 or so CF becomes a "wow" moment for $100m in payroll give or take. Bruce sucks. He can't even spend 23rd in the league or whatever.

It's Bruce not green lighting the money, which in turn spurns folks not showing up as why invest time in the team if he doesn't give a shit. It's not keeping guys down for service time or they don't have a good 2nd/3rd pitch. All the chutes and ladders lead right back to Bruce not spending money to improve the team for years and years with this last offseason Exhibit A.

I’ve been keeping track of attendance for the last 3 years, and somehow attendance is slightly UP this year (the increase has dropped to around 5k overall but still up) to this point in the season. We did have some really big crowds toward the end of the year last year with the push, so I do expect it to become an overall decrease here soon with approx 20 home games left, but it’s shocking to me that attendance hasn’t cratered with the quality (or lack thereof) of the on-field product ….maybe it’s a delayed reaction thing where casual fans heard they were good last year and come to games not realizing they suck now, and we’ll see next years numbers crater?

I can try to post some charts on here via the upload attachments thing if anyone is interested in seeing the graphs?

[fish16]

I’ve been keeping track of attendance for the last 3 years, and somehow attendance is slightly UP this year (the increase has dropped to around 5k overall but still up) to this point in the season. We did have some really big crowds toward the end of the year last year with the push, so I do expect it to become an overall decrease here soon with approx 20 home games left, but it’s shocking to me that attendance hasn’t cratered with the quality (or lack thereof) of the on-field product ….maybe it’s a delayed reaction thing where casual fans heard they were good last year and come to games not realizing they suck now, and we’ll see next years numbers crater?

I can try to post some charts on here via the upload attachments thing if anyone is interested in seeing the graphs?

fudging ticket numbers is not hard. just ask Samson. Paid attendance doesnt really mean bodies in seats.

[fish16]

.464 BABIP

But

Expected slash .273/.343/.353. Base running 75th percentile or so but doesn't qualify yet. Defense took a small dip to 18th percentile. 21st percentile arm strength. It's just gonna be 2B but that's fine with that glowing OBP projection and base running chops. Defense will radically tick up at 2B I imagine. Great showing. Kim's a dope for not unleashing him.


And BTW, Edwards service time

Started - 52 Days
Early Season DL - 60 days (he ended season on 26 man roster so I believe this all counts as MLB service time)
3 Day June recall - 3 days
Called up 7/2 - 90 days (give or take) to end of season
=205 days

1.033 Days of service based on league calendar.


No service time manipulation. If they kept him down 34 days, they'd get another year (age 30) and make him a super2. So just to say out loud, they don't always do this. Absolutely with Garrett, Eury, and Max, but not Edwards.

And when Norby comes up in 2-3 weeks, he'll fall into this no manipulation bucket too FWIW

they delayed edwards service time all last year when wendle was awful and edwards was putting up an unreal AAA season while we were in a playoff race. they dont get bonus points for not doing it two years in a row.

[fish16]

Every team in baseball does this though, including the Orioles with Jackson Holliday. The Rays do this as the gold standard. We're all really happy the Marlins did this with Garrett and Cabrera but those checks don't get cashed for 2 years, same as Max. I don't get the constant criticism here. Especially since......

Max is flashing 1 pitch (slider) and his FB and CU are getting hammered. Batters are Ted Williams against the changeup, and the fastball is a bit better and more like everyone is Bobby Witt instead. It's that bad. Slider is great. That isn't due to keep him in the minors. He's had reliever risk since the time he was drafted as a smaller prospect slider dominant, and would the FB/secondaries catch up. His AAA numbers are fine especially for a guy oft injured. This is a big ole, give him time and guys have bad starts/stretches especially as they jump levels. The FB and CU need to improve dramatically, or he's going to be the team's 8th or 9th inning guy in 2026 throwing 45% sliders and max effort heaters. Which, may not be a big deal if Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, and Weathers is a core rotation or whatever it is.

He'll probably be fine as he adjusts as he has a legitimate wipe out pitch which not everyone has and that is extremely valuable for him, but guys are just sitting on the fastball basically. Welcome to the bigs. It's hard. I think there is huge runway for him to work this out. Or, he becomes an awesome reliever. Extremely SSS:

1st time through - Guys are hitting .196/.241/.412, with 3.14 ERA (xFIP 3.59)
2nd time through - .333/.423/.689.... with a 5.91 era (xFIP 5.43)

I'd just throw him too to get innings right now, but if the Marlins were actually trying to win and make the playoffs, he's going 2+ innings only right now on a good team more than likely.

wow, i wonder why max meyer might not be up to speed and pitching well like he was before they sent him down after 3 straight outings to begin the year in which he went 5 IP 2 ER, and then 2 straight outings of 6 IP and 1 ER, the last of which included 7 k's and no walks. That was April 13th. From that point on in AAA, he pitched once every 7 days, never pitching more than 4.2 IP until July 9th. You keep talking about Edward Cabrera needing a longterm deal and those 2 guys have the exact same XFIP for their career. The way they handled him this year was a fucking joke. What better way to find out what you have then throwing him out there to see what he can do in a year in which you are 30 games under. Babying these pitchers does not fucking work.

You're also acting like he is getting completely lit up when he has had 1 bad outing by fip in his time this year. His 6 starts have had FIP of 4.57, 3.92, 2.59, 4.67, 2.77, and 8.18.

[Namaste]

fudging ticket numbers is not hard. just ask Samson. Paid attendance doesnt really mean bodies in seats.

Cool allegation!

[Nick]

Cool allegation!

I’m pretty sure that’s been proven that Loria and Samson did that. Our attendance went way down the 1st year of Sherman because they were actually counting who was there.

[Nick]

And obviously service time manipulation is common practice, but I don’t know if there’s ever been a more obvious case than with Meyer. They sent down a guy who had been our best pitcher up until that point and brought him up immediately once that service time date had passed.

[lou]

I’ve been keeping track of attendance for the last 3 years, and somehow attendance is slightly UP this year (the increase has dropped to around 5k overall but still up) to this point in the season. We did have some really big crowds toward the end of the year last year with the push, so I do expect it to become an overall decrease here soon with approx 20 home games left, but it’s shocking to me that attendance hasn’t cratered with the quality (or lack thereof) of the on-field product ….maybe it’s a delayed reaction thing where casual fans heard they were good last year and come to games not realizing they suck now, and we’ll see next years numbers crater?

I can try to post some charts on here via the upload attachments thing if anyone is interested in seeing the graphs?

I think the thing is - there is a just a floor of hey lets go to the game.

They are at the floor IMO. It can only get lower if you enter an Oakland type situation of we're moving, so then no one even goes at all.


It's the constant comment - invest in your business and people will come. If you build it, they will come. It so true and especially in Miami.

[lou]

they delayed edwards service time all last year when wendle was awful and edwards was putting up an unreal AAA season while we were in a playoff race. they dont get bonus points for not doing it two years in a row.

Different regimes. This one could have kept him down for 5+ more weeks and they aren't.

If they keep down Norby end of April you have your answer. I will be he is up in 2-3 weeks unless its a real defensive thing and 3B is working and need to build that with lower pressure.

[lou]

And obviously service time manipulation is common practice, but I don’t know if there’s ever been a more obvious case than with Meyer. They sent down a guy who had been our best pitcher up until that point and brought him up immediately once that service time date had passed.

Kris Bryant is jumping up and down and screaming at the top of his lungs.


But if its the Marlins, Garrett was even worse - they sent him down in September for a week plus to do it when he was clearly a top pitcher on the team, back from injury, and healthy. No innings issues. Nothing. Pure service time. Kim fucked Garrett the most money of all the Marlins players IMO. He's a 10/10 laughable, where we can disagree, but I think there is plausible deniability with Eury and Max. Max has no 3rd pitch and it looks like the 2nd one needs work. Is he even ready now and I ask this seriously? I'd try him at the MLB level also with quicker hooks as its time and they have nothing to lose especially with Sep lineups coming, but is he genuinely ready with no changeup of merit and guys are just waiting for a fastball?

[lou]

wow, i wonder why max meyer might not be up to speed and pitching well like he was before they sent him down after 3 straight outings to begin the year in which he went 5 IP 2 ER, and then 2 straight outings of 6 IP and 1 ER, the last of which included 7 k's and no walks. That was April 13th. From that point on in AAA, he pitched once every 7 days, never pitching more than 4.2 IP until July 9th. You keep talking about Edward Cabrera needing a longterm deal and those 2 guys have the exact same XFIP for their career. The way they handled him this year was a fucking joke. What better way to find out what you have then throwing him out there to see what he can do in a year in which you are 30 games under. Babying these pitchers does not fucking work.

You're also acting like he is getting completely lit up when he has had 1 bad outing by fip in his time this year. His 6 starts have had FIP of 4.57, 3.92, 2.59, 4.67, 2.77, and 8.18.

Agree to disagree. Max is not showing secondary offerings to his slider. We love him as he is our top 100 prospect, but let's be objective - he is throwing a terrible fastball and out of this world bad changeup and him being in AAA or MLB level is not changing that. He's also off a major injury and I think it's better to end strong then finish early so this innings "babying" isn't even a footnote of a bad idea to me. He's set up to throw as many innings as he can handle in Aug/Sep (which is 1/3rd the season) if not getting blasted out of games early. The slider is objectively awesome and will likely grow into elite as he matures. He needs to improve the FB deception/control/movement/anything. I'd try him at the MLB level and let him get drilled too to just let him get his innings at this point to set up for next year, but he's not going to be going deep into games with what he's throwing. It's going to be random bomb HR on guys sitting on FBs and CUs and avoiding the slider at all costs. Something is going to have to give there. Fly or die kid. He has probably 25-30 starts until he is Puk'd to the bullpen next ASB where he'd probably be incredible as max effort FB/Sliders over 20-30 pitches. Let's see what happens. Having him up a few weeks earlier or June is changing nothing here, especially in a massive non contending year. He has a big runway to get up to speed on MLB hitters for next year these next 2 months. We got a lot to be pissed about, this ain't one of them to me. And if he works out (even as a high leverage RP), everyone's attitude is going to be extremely quickly - "glad they didn't pitch him in 2024" in 2026/2027.

Let's not get worked up here on this and hope Max adjusts next 8+ appearances here on out. All teams play the service time game as that is what the collective bargaining agreement sets up. Until that is fixed - and they are trying with the draft pick compensation Julio and Adley have received by them calling the guys up and them being awesome - this is just how it is going to be.

The real WTF moment will be if Norby is down until late April. I will be floored if they do that. That would be insane.

[rmc523]

fudging ticket numbers is not hard. just ask Samson. Paid attendance doesnt really mean bodies in seats.

Supposedly they switched to actual bodies under Sherman/Jeter. I haven’t watched a single game this year to judge via the eye test

[Nick]

Kris Bryant is jumping up and down and screaming at the top of his lungs.


But if its the Marlins, Garrett was even worse - they sent him down in September for a week plus to do it when he was clearly a top pitcher on the team, back from injury, and healthy. No innings issues. Nothing. Pure service time. Kim fucked Garrett the most money of all the Marlins players IMO. He's a 10/10 laughable, where we can disagree, but I think there is plausible deniability with Eury and Max. Max has no 3rd pitch and it looks like the 2nd one needs work. Is he even ready now and I ask this seriously? I'd try him at the MLB level also with quicker hooks as its time and they have nothing to lose especially with Sep lineups coming, but is he genuinely ready with no changeup of merit and guys are just waiting for a fastball?

I don’t remember Kris Bryant re-signing with the Cubs.

Not that it matters to the Marlins, but if that’s your policy as an organization to take advantage of this rule to the detriment of the players in your organization that has to hurt your chances of getting these players to stay when the time comes.

[lou]

I don’t remember Kris Bryant re-signing with the Cubs.

Not that it matters to the Marlins, but if that’s your policy as an organization to take advantage of this rule to the detriment of the players in your organization that has to hurt your chances of getting these players to stay when the time comes.

I just meant as the poster child of the manipulation. The Cubs did him the dirtiest.

[Nick]

Some guy named Derek Hill just hit a grand slam for the good guys.