2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Based on what evidence?

Actual payroll figures

24 - $92 (opening day). This is probably closer to $80m shedding the contracts now
23 - $92 (ballooned closer to $110m for push)
22 - $79
21 - $56

[Todd]

I mean yes they did good overall, but Jason Adam got a better prospect (Lesko) then Snelling and Mazur. Lesko went to.... the Rays. The Scott deal is a good deal in a vacuum, but you do have to pick your shots and this seems like a missed opportunity with Scott in particular, as frankly, I think they have a lot of emerging depth now so why not go for the huge huge guy.

It's a smaller deal but I think this may be happening. That DLC deal is not "safe." They went with a too the moon prospect with Shim which I think is great. It's a great get here. This is what I want to see next - if Luzardo or Sandy is shipped, your Mayer idea is the idea for sure. Or Brooks Lee. Or someone we are all YES on immediately that solves that longterm SS/3B problem now in 2025. Like Bleis and friends work for Luzardo, but lets win some ball games and get 1 dude and not worry about getting a "Pauley" as a third player.

That's it for me. "No more Pauleys." Max out on 1-2 player packages as the depth is there. Throw in depth (add Bender to Luzardo, etc.) to get the FV40 "Meidroth" added, etc.

Same with the draft - maybe don't do the underslot/overslot thing again. Bang it out too the moon. Which is easier with getting a top 1-4 pick next year, but still.

Lesko was 4th in their system. Bush was 23rd and Martinez 26th.

Snelling was 5th, Mazur 7th, and Pauley was 13th.

1 50 FV+2 35 FV vs. 3 40 FV.

Do you know who was a 60 FV? Cristian Pache.

Don't rely so heavily on that number

[lou]

Lesko was 4th in their system. Bush was 23rd and Martinez 26th.

Snelling was 5th, Mazur 7th, and Pauley was 13th.

1 50 FV+2 35 FV vs. 3 40 FV.

Do you know who was a 60 FV? Cristian Pache.

Don't rely so heavily on that number

Victor Robles was a 60 also, but those guys more often than not turn out very good - like Marcelo Mayer - and regardless, they have a trade value attached to them of a prospect of that value. If we're talking Sandy and Luzardo trades, for perspective Glasnow was traded for a 45 and 40. That's like Weathers and Marsee. Marlins *must* do much better than that, but they will as Luzardo/Sandy have more club control.

Lesko is a FV50/top100 prospect on FG, And Snelling and Mazur 40+ and Pauley a 40 on Fangraphs. Big differences. System rank means really nothing. It's just the overall quality of the guy. Lesko is far and away better here to me with the best stuff. He is a potential ace with medium control moving forward. But I do think Snelling has the highest floor if everyone fails here.

I like the Scott trade a lot, except, I saw what Adam and Estevez got so it's a bit of a bummer. They got a single better guy (Angels main piece a FV45+) same as the Rays with Lesko. That's it here.

[lou]

Marlins wanted Baty also - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...y-marlins.html

That would have been amazing. I imagine this was for Rogers and Brazoban sort of thing. Too bad that didn't happen.

[Nick]

Actual payroll figures

24 - $92 (opening day). This is probably closer to $80m shedding the contracts now
23 - $92 (ballooned closer to $110m for push)
22 - $79
21 - $56

Alright, I guess I missed we were talking about $90 million payroll.

$90 million payroll is pathetic.

[Namaste]

Jesus Sanchez just hit a 480 foot HR at loanDepot

longest HR in MLB this year

cue swinging out of his shoes post

[lou]

Alright, I guess I missed we were talking about $90 million payroll.

$90 million payroll is pathetic.

Yes, the expectation is he would spend $90m and yes, it's pathetic.

But we have our Peter hat on so what does Peter do. Given Luzardo won't get time now while hurt depressing his arb, and they did move the secondary guys who would make some smaller arb tenders (DLC, Rogers, Puk, etc.), the money has in fact dropped for next year. And that ignores Peter did save the boss man $10m bucks via these trades for this season which is not reflected. Bruce has gotta be pleased about that!

Peter has this right now for around $60m-$62m (depending on some final stretches for like Cabrera who could do well if he kills people, or Burger hits 15 HR here on out, etc.) in 2025 payroll as the keep everyone team, and I note 25% of that is Garcia and Go. I'm ignoring service time issues, but very gingerly you could use Banfield at C and Dane/Pauley over DDLS for 15 days into the season to get a year of service time for each of them as 40 man options before turning it over. I don't think you do it for anyone else on this list. Free Norby.


C - Fortes, Ramirez
1B - Burger, DDLS
2B - Edwards, Otto/Bride/Brujan (keep 1)
SS - ______
3B - _______
LF - Norby, Stowers/Dane (other AAA)
CF - ________, Sanoja/Mesa Jr./Dane (others AAA)
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers
RHP - ______, Bender, Cronin, Faucher, Maldonado
LHP - Nardi, __________


AAA Bats/40 man - Banfield, Hensley, Pauley, Sasaki, Sanoja/Stowers/Dane, Sanoja/VMJR, Serna...... with Martorella, Mack, and Marsee not on the 40

AAA Inventory Arms/40 man - Munoz, Bellozo, E. Ramirez, Soriano, Simpson, and the bigger ones on the 40 - Mazur and Fulton (Eury IL)


I actually really like this depth chart, acknowledging yes they need 2 monster bats for those blank lines at a minimum and a high leverage RP is really needed. Everything else makes sense here for positions and upside. They could use better 40 man options versus Hensley, Sasaki, and maybe a few relievers but that would be it.


We gotta hope he lets him spend like he has in the past, unless everyone Marlins internally decides it is a tank year and time to shed Sandy, Luzardo, Burger, Sanchez, and Bender ($28-30m) off of that $60m, and then have a real frivolous kid turnover year and aim to do something else later. As mused, Adames is the best FA for them right now for 3 years so I think that's a shitty plan as guys they would need in FA aren't coming for years. So at what point have you just traded off enough money as you do want to win games right?


Some quick hypotheticals for $90m or so:

You can fit Adames (3.2 WAR over 450+ PA and counting) on this team if you go club controlled/cheap players with the other 4 spots in the go big scenario. Keep all the arms (which would be an incredible staff on paper?), do nothing else, and Bendix can do Brujan and Gordon/Anderson sort of bat moves again and hope for better results.

Or, your relievers are club controlled and you spread $25m or so over three stop-gap bats like.... Miguel Rojas (very good this year, 1.4 WAR in over 200 PA), Yoan Moncada (hurt, but last 400 PA last two years 1.4 WAR), and Harrison Bader (1.6 WAR in 322 PA) and hope for the best there are meteoric rises for Ramirez, DDLS, Norby, and Sanoja into contributors and Burger, Sanchez, and Edwards are a solid core with them. This is doing 2024 all over again IMO, but upticking the skeptical bats up a tier into they should be OK not hope and prayer Anderson territory.

Or, trade Sandy or Luzardo and get 2 blank lines and money back, and depending on what you get, now you have 4 blank lines somewhere instead of 5 and have closer to $35m to spend on that if Luzardo is moved, or if it's Sandy, you'd have closer to $45m to spend on that. Of course you'd need to spend money on a SP here, so that might just be signing two of Rojas/Moncada/Bader and a luxury reliever and hope the young kid in the trade is awesome. But that young kind in the trade might be awesome. But this is at the point payroll is so low, why are amazing players being traded just because, to then use what is left for a few bridge starting players?


Peter has room to work with here within the shitty Bruce budgets is all I'm saying. Solely looking at what Peter is doing, he's got a cohesive plans within the constraints of Bruce. Which yes are BS.


Practically this is just the long analysis of, they should probably trade 1 of Sandy and Luzardo to open up a little payroll assuming Bruce would only spend $90m. A best case scenario to me is getting a 3B + CF for one of them as centerpieces that are relatively play now, sign Adames, and now if you traded Luzardo for the 3B/CF, you have $10m or so to spend on 3 arms, but if you traded Sandy, you have closer to $20 to spend on 3 arms. That would all work out for sure to get a #4 innings eater and two RP Bendix likes to optimistically bridge to a ..... Eury, Mazur, and Snelling summer. All for under $90m, and this is with a true splurge in Adames. Dump the other of Sandy/Luzardo, Burger, Sanchez, and Bender after 2025, and you probably have the entire team club controlled now outside Adames, Cabrera, Max, Garrett, and Weathers. And they are cheap arbitrations for the arms. Cough extend Cabrea cough.


This is all BS because this maneuvering shouldn't have to happen with a billion dollar baseball team and they should just spend as a floor $130m, but it is what it is. Peter has 2-3 big moves left to finalize a cohesive plan for 2025 which doesn't look so bad if them arms are healthy.

[fish16]

Jesus Sanchez just hit a 480 foot HR at loanDepot

longest HR in MLB this year

cue swinging out of his shoes post

The swinging out of his shoes is awesome. He hits bombs occasionally when he makes contact. That was not his first long home run. So did wily mo Pena back in the day. The reason he isn’t a high quality starter is because he has awful plate discipline and doesn’t make contact enough. It’s the only thing holding him back from being a high level player but it’s a huge hold up

[fish16]

jonah bride has been decent of late. solid numbers on the year. he always put up terrific AAA numbers but never figured out. maybe he is a late bloomer now that he is finally getting playing time. or maybe he just stinks and his numbers will go down by the end of the year. he always had great k/bb numbers and that has kept up this year in limited playing time in the big leagues. Seems to be the type of guy the rays find and get production from. he has a career k/bb in 1500 minor league ab's of 321/267 with a .401 OBP and close to a .300 average.

[fish16]

also, xavier edwards is a fucking stud. not a great SS but doesnt appear to be an albatross there. given the amount of 2b guys we have, if he can stick at SS that is a huge piece moving forward. Arraez like contact ability but serious speed and more ability to draw walks on top of the ability to not strike out a ton. 1.6 WAR already in just 32 games.

[lou]

The swinging out of his shoes is awesome. He hits bombs occasionally when he makes contact. That was not his first long home run. So did wily mo Pena back in the day. The reason he isn’t a high quality starter is because he has awful plate discipline and doesn’t make contact enough. It’s the only thing holding him back from being a high level player but it’s a huge hold up

Yea but that's fine as he's an easy 7th-8th best hitter floor on a good team and you just platoon him? We should judge him as to who he is not that the marlins suck.

I think we all agree here let's just find him 400+ PA against right handers for 3 more years and move him out against lefties. If they get lucky with developing guys (Marsee, Pauley, etc.) maybe he gets shipped out earlier than expected as they can shed him before FA. He's fine. I don't think he will ever hit lefties with the swing, but I think more power vs RHP is coming. Maybe he should bunt against all lefties and I'm 51% serious and 49% joke with that.

[lou]

also, xavier edwards is a fucking stud. not a great SS but doesnt appear to be an albatross there. given the amount of 2b guys we have, if he can stick at SS that is a huge piece moving forward. Arraez like contact ability but serious speed and more ability to draw walks on top of the ability to not strike out a ton. 1.6 WAR already in just 32 games.

20th percentile defense, but yes - SSS

If he can get that to 40th percentile (I will not be optimistic here), maybe we can consider him a SS if he's going to hit .300, but I don't see either right now. His analytics profile is roughly .270/.340/.350, which may seem like an insult to show sub .700 OPS with what he is doing..... but he has a .450 BABIP (lol) and that OBP is screaming off the page to me as awesome for who Edwards is + base running potential + should be good at 2B. He's a piece, we can just debate how good of one he is. But he's a piece. I absolutely love a .340 OBP Edwards moving forward as a 2B/SS/LF hybrid and fuck slugging ultimately. That's a bonus. Only 40 qualified hitters have a .340 OBP in baseball just for some perspective here. Offense is way way down. Just want to note here for Namaste...... Arraez has a .337 OBP this season. ::runs::


I think the long term best case scenario is Edwards, Serna, and Sanoja are collectively MLB players and are "fine" collectively as backup SS options so they don't have to carry two of them, and they just get a fucking every day SS via Adames or trade. I would agree, he is a little better than expected at SS so far, but he still has a long ways to go.


The real question is - WHAT WAS KIM THINKING LAST YEAR??? Edwards missed so much time this season so he is currently "rusty" arguably from a playing time perspective. The Phillies were still going to kick their ass, but what was Kim thinking here not unleashing this guy versus what they had? I will never get this one looking in hindsight.

[lou]

jonah bride has been decent of late. solid numbers on the year. he always put up terrific AAA numbers but never figured out. maybe he is a late bloomer now that he is finally getting playing time. or maybe he just stinks and his numbers will go down by the end of the year. he always had great k/bb numbers and that has kept up this year in limited playing time in the big leagues. Seems to be the type of guy the rays find and get production from. he has a career k/bb in 1500 minor league ab's of 321/267 with a .401 OBP and close to a .300 average.

I too have noticed this. His statcast (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) is not impressive though.

Career expected slash .228/.325/.315 in 362 PA. He needs to get that average up and hit some more XBH obviously, but that OBP is on the verge of being really playable if he hits .250ish with some doubles. 40th percentile defense which is actually pretty solid for a utlity 1B/2B/3B guy.

Hopefully the last few weeks are a tick up for him and it is clicking. I'm sure Bendix would love Bride to all of a sudden become a .245/.340/.375+ hitter, who can handle lefty pitchers as a right hander (reverse split so far but SSS), and Pauley is left handed to be a strong side 3B situation for cheap. That would be great. I agree, this is a potential annoying Rays guy who just has a 1 WAR in 375 PA they got for nothing and is on their bench for 3+ years, and then is traded for an 18 year old upshot prospect who works out and Bride then falls apart immediately on the plane to the next team.

A big big 2 months for Bride's career trajectory. Hopefully this is a tick up. They need to play him every day for sure.

[rmc523]

This is defeatist. It will be do they think they can contend, it will go up. 2025 may be the second pivot year for Peter.


So when they don't do anything (Adames) and sign guys (Moncada), we'll know they think the kids need a year of growth and this is just a hope and prayer season and hope the SP is top 5 so they can be in it like July like Seattle.

And on the flip side, your take is wildly optimistic, continually projecting they’re going to go after guys like Adams, when Bruce’s biggest expenditure in 6-7 years is what…half of what that guy may get?

couple that with the fact that they made the playoffs twice, and twice have not done a thing after that.

the plan of waiting until every single piece lines up to spend more than $5M is absurd because nothing will ever perfectly line up…we see it every year when a key pitcher or two (or…all of them this year) go down, instead of signing players ahead of time with forward vision to raise the team’s performance floor to be able to withstand injuries.

i have a 1% faith that they’ll sign some notable players. I’m happy to be wrong, but we’ve seen 6-7 years of literally nothing from Bruce……but hey, this time it’ll be different, right???

[lou]

And on the flip side, your take is wildly optimistic, continually projecting they’re going to go after guys like Adams, when Bruce’s biggest expenditure in 6-7 years is what…half of what that guy may get?

couple that with the fact that they made the playoffs twice, and twice have not done a thing after that.

the plan of waiting until every single piece lines up to spend more than $5M is absurd because nothing will ever perfectly line up…we see it every year when a key pitcher or two (or…all of them this year) go down, instead of signing players ahead of time with forward vision to raise the team’s performance floor to be able to withstand injuries.

i have a 1% faith that they’ll sign some notable players. I’m happy to be wrong, but we’ve seen 6-7 years of literally nothing from Bruce……but hey, this time it’ll be different, right???

I don't think they will sign Adames - but they should. Just to be clear.


I think some sort of M. Rojas/Bader/1 year medium expensive RP FA threesome all on 1 year deals, and keeping someone like Bride/Dane on the roster as the 13th bat and just hoping for the best is the most likely scenario - with keeping all the pitching as Bendix will think, if there is any chance we will win, it's the SP. So the bats suck, but we will throw.

If they just sign Rojas who no Don/Jazz so it's not unrealistic, Bader, and a $7m RP, this team is going to be mid $80s in payroll.

C - Fortes, Ramirez (Mack/Banfield optimistically replaces Fortes)
1B - Burger, DDLS (Martorella)
2B - Edwards, Otto (Serna replaces Otto)
SS - Rojas
3B - Pauley, Bride (Pauley opens AAA and they have Stowers up and Sanoja more IF initially)
LF - Norby (Marsee)
CF - Bader, Sanoja (Mesa Jr.)
RF - Sanchez (Stowers has options)

SP - Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers (Someone like Bellozo/Munoz has Eury's spot initially as a multi inning RP)
RHP - $7m reliever, Bender, Faucher, Cronin
LHP - Nardi, Some club controlled guy we don't need to discuss


It's an all sorts of YES scenario with the SP once Eury is back, and in a perfect world all 7 of those dudes are healthy at the deadline and Snelling/Mazur is ready, so they can move one for a deadline bat upgrade and not miss a pitching beat with an instant big time internal replacement.


This is what I think I expect. Bet on SP, hope to get enough from bats (there is real hope at C, 1B, DH, 2B, LF, and RF, and optimistically floors at SS and CF there with the bridge FA), and if it doesn't work out, can unload Burger, Sanchez, Luzardo, Sandy, Bender, Nardi, Rojas, and Bader at the deadline for a HEAP and what's that... 5-7 major players and another 5-7+ FV40 18 year olds to add to everything, and we're well under a $50m payroll now for 2026 with no holes on paper with adequate or better young guy names, and just looking luxury upgrades.

This is the "cheap" route and likely circling 2026 because the bats need 2+ major contributors, but 2023 happening. You never know with top end SP.

That's the expectation. That SP could be killer if the doctors say they are full gos in April (excluding Eury).