2024 Game Thread

[Todd]

Lane Thomas has been worth 1 WAR this year. Sanchez is at .9. Plus 2 years younger with more years of control.

[fish16]

Lane Thomas has been worth 1 WAR this year. Sanchez is at .9. Plus 2 years younger with more years of control.

Jesus Sanchez has 3.5 war in 1400 pa for
his career. Lane Thomas has 6.7 in 1900. Also, again, Sanchez has more value to us than 3 random mediocre prospects. He isn’t a free agent until 2028, what is the point of trading him at this point?

[lou]

Lane Thomas is better than Sanchez, and Sanchez has more value to us than 3 mediocre prospects would. Not everyone has to be traded just because

Huh? Lane is a LHP splits guy that had a career year last year. Sanchez better underlying hit data. Also 2 less years of control than Sanchez and Sanchez is a better defender. Sanchez is better in every conceivable way here except versus lefties. Hes not just more valuable, Sanchez is a lot more valuable.

But I am fully with you here on the main point - more valuable to Marlins. He’s a keep unless very aggressive trade.

[fish16]

Huh? Lane is a LHP splits guy that had a career year last year. Sanchez better underlying hit data. Also 2 less years of control than Sanchez and Sanchez is a better defender. Sanchez is better in every conceivable way here except versus lefties. Hes not just more valuable, Sanchez is a lot more valuable.

But I am fully with you here on the main point - more valuable to Marlins. He’s a keep unless very aggressive trade.

Do you ever do any reflection about how much you seem to care about what stats say guys should be as opposed to what guys actually produce?

sanchez underlying data is good because he swings out of his fucking shoes every time he swings. Because of that, he has bad plate discipline. You did the same thing with dlc two years ago


lane Thomas is a .687 ops for his career against righties. Hes passable. Sanchez is unplayable against lefties

[lou]

Do you ever do any reflection about how much you seem to care about what stats say guys should be as opposed to what guys actually produce?

sanchez underlying data is good because he swings out of his fucking shoes every time he swings. Because of that, he has bad plate discipline. You did the same thing with dlc two years ago

So you got nothing. Sanchez today is better offensively, defensively, cheaper, and with more control than Lane. It’s why Lane was traded for nothing. He’s an elite DH versus lefties. Hes very good at that. But let’s not do this grandstanding. The performance is the performance and Sanchez is just better. Lanes 2023 isn’t even that impressive but the hits sometimes fall.

[Namaste]

Jazz 2 HR's tonight. Wish we had guys like that.

[lou]

Do we think Edwards is a .965 OPS hitter

Or maybe, something like .276/.357/.367

That’s his actual expected slash on hit data and what we should say here IMO, is we are in love with the OBP and this dude is a keeper if that is all he does slash wise. That OBP plays.

I’m not expecting his actual .965 OPS at all. No one should.

[fish16]

So you got nothing. Sanchez today is better offensively, defensively, cheaper, and with more control than Lane. It’s why Lane was traded for nothing. He’s an elite DH versus lefties. Hes very good at that. But let’s not do this grandstanding. The performance is the performance and Sanchez is just better. Lanes 2023 isn’t even that impressive but the hits sometimes fall.

What on earth are you talking about? You’re the one citing what stats say Sanchez should be as opposed to what each of them is. Both of them are platoon heavy guys. The difference is lanes bad platoon is playable and Sanchez’s isn’t.

if lanes 2023 wasn’t impressive what do you call Sanchez’s career because it was 1.6 war higher than anything Sanchez has ever done. Which is funny because Sanchez has never even put up a 1.6 war for his career. His career high is 1.5.

he has more control. He’s not a better player nor has he been a better player for his career. That’s just objectively true according to, you know, actual performance

jt seems very transparent that you don’t actually watch any of these guys or seem to watch baseball in general. Every single aspect of your analysis is statistically driven, which is important but you miss a ton of context consistently

[fish16]

Do we think Edwards is a .965 OPS hitter

Or maybe, something like .276/.357/.367

That’s his actual expected slash on hit data and what we should say here IMO, is we are in love with the OBP and this dude is a keeper if that is all he does slash wise. That OBP plays.

I’m not expecting his actual .965 OPS at all. No one should.

Edwards has 87 at bats this year. Sanchez has over 1400 over the course of 5 years. Let me guess, you still think dlc is anything other than an awful player because in the rare times he makes contact it’s hit hard?

[lou]

Do you ever do any reflection about how much you seem to care about what stats say guys should be as opposed to what guys actually produce?

sanchez underlying data is good because he swings out of his fucking shoes every time he swings. Because of that, he has bad plate discipline. You did the same thing with dlc two years ago


lane Thomas is a .687 ops for his career against righties. Hes passable. Sanchez is unplayable against lefties

Oh you added this gem.

So a .687 OPS for an outfielder who is terrible defensively is passable?

DLC career .724 OPS.

Yes Lane is better because he is playable at DH versus lefties, but that is not passable in the field. That’s replacement level. Like DLC.

defense matters

[lou]

What on earth are you talking about? You’re the one citing what stats say Sanchez should be as opposed to what each of them is. Both of them are platoon heavy guys. The difference is lanes bad platoon is playable and Sanchez’s isn’t.

if lanes 2023 wasn’t impressive what do you call Sanchez’s career because it was 1.6 war higher than anything Sanchez has ever done. Which is funny because Sanchez has never even put up a 1.6 war for his career. His career high is 1.5.

he has more control. He’s not a better player nor has he been a better player for his career. That’s just objectively true according to, you know, actual performance

jt seems very transparent that you don’t actually watch any of these guys or seem to watch baseball in general. Every single aspect of your analysis is statistically driven, which is important but you miss a ton of context consistently

I’ll take the guy who is cheaper, plays better defense, hit 2/3rds of pitchers harder, and controlled more years. But to each their own. I think you could just admit you didn’t really look at this and just assumed Lane was better because he was cool in fantasy baseball last year. Because that’s what seems to be happening.

[fish16]

Oh you added this gem.

So a .687 OPS for an outfielder who is terrible defensively is passable?

DLC career .724 OPS.

Yes Lane is better because he is playable at DH versus lefties, but that is not passable in the field. That’s replacement level. Like DLC.

defense matters

Defense matters? Ya it does. And Sanchez is also not a good defender. And Yes, if that’s his bad platoon side, that’s absolutely passable if he hits lefties at the .888 ops clip he has for his career. Arraez hits lefties at .690. Is Thomas the perfect player? Of course not. But there’s a reason he has almost double the war in his career in not even close to double the pa’s. You keep hanging your hat on what computers say guys should be though. The 5 years probably isn’t enough data to tell you one is better than the other for sure

[fish16]

I’ll take the guy who is cheaper, plays better defense, hit 2/3rds of pitchers harder, and controlled more years. But to each their own. I think you could just admit you didn’t really look at this and just assumed Lane was better because he was cool in fantasy baseball last year. Because that’s what seems to be happening.

I’m not sure what you’re talking about. He is an objectively better baseball player for the last 5 year sample. Your precious war is not even close. What the fuck are you even talking about.

im not talking about price or years of control. This entire conversation has been about their production on the field. Lane Thomas has been objectively better for a 5 year sample. The literal only thing that you have is what the computer tells you one guy should be because you don’t actually watch enough to realize that the reason he isn’t that is because he has 0 plate discipline and swings out of his shoes, which is why his hard hit numbers are good

[Nick]

Do we think Edwards is a .965 OPS hitter

Or maybe, something like .276/.357/.367

That’s his actual expected slash on hit data and what we should say here IMO, is we are in love with the OBP and this dude is a keeper if that is all he does slash wise. That OBP plays.

I’m not expecting his actual .965 OPS at all. No one should.

I don't think Edwards is an apt comparison, when he has like 100 career ABs, when we've been watching Sanchez and DLC start for this club for years.

And yes Edwards is better than that expected slash.

[sports24/7]

5 is too many for me I think.

Scott, Chargois, and one of Cronin/Hoeing/Munoz/Maldonado can go (and by that, I mean Cronin as all 4 guys are similar and will likely get similar performances. It's all sliders and they can work with them).

I would put a mini-premium on Brazoban - dudes just look at this shit, he's a fucking ace right now with many years of control and low mileage as a 34 year old. You can't just give this away even if its a small SSS. Every fan base would be thrilled getting this out of nowhere - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

I think Bender has a real premium out pitch (sweeper), and that makes him difficult to trade with all the slider guys they have as a good change of look. I think you can move him as he is entering lower control arbitration, but this isn't a throw in and he needs to be valued. No premium like Brazoban, just something fair but it's not an outside top 25 FV40 prospect. It's gotta be something a little better than that.

Nardi is just a floor real good pen 2nd lefty with upside for more with a lot of control. I don't think you move him at all. They need him in post-Puk world and upper minors relievers all right handers. However, a super premium deal is fine as always be trading relievers.

Faucher is a 6th guy in the bullpen. He can be moved, but I'd keep him over moving a 2nd of the slider bunch as he has a different pitch mix to keep changing up what's being thrown at you.

So 5 is a lot, but...

Must trade - Scott, Chargois
Probably a good idea - Cronin
--
If you get a premium - Nardi, Brazoban
Fair deals - Bender
OK as a last minute deal kicker and don't worry about it too much - Hoeing, Faucher
--
Doesn't matter much, but they have some real upside into a pen 7th inning guy so keep them - Maldonado, Munoz


Ultimately, I do like Bender, Brazoban, Faucher, Hoeing/Maldonado/Munoz, Nardi, and TBD new lefty is a good pen basis next year so they should strive to do that as their top 6.

I honestly don’t see any reason not to trade any of them unless you think you’ll get more at a later date. The market is too good, and RP value is so volatile.