2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Mish suggesting the return for Jazz will be young prospects. “I would be surprised if a single player they get back in any deadline deal plays opening day in 2025”. It’s going to be a depressing couple of years.

This is what I saw and is bullshit. This team is really poorly run.

This gets them quick to moving Luzardo, Sandy ($$$), Puk, Sanchez, DLC, Burger, Nardi, Bender, and Rogers in the offseason IMO for a complete retool. They can’t piece this together without Jazz and getting young guys years away for him (absent a $120m payroll), so it just opens the floodgates to shedding all the money. And I do mean all of it as why keep any of it if you’re not going to go for it?

If they did that, they’d still have a full (healthy) rotation here in summer 2025 with Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, and Max which might be quite good fast, but for the love of fuck what a missed opportunity just not doing an assortment of these moves before the season if this was always the plan. Rookie POBO/GM moment and burned that Luzardo year in particular.

Will be interested in seeing what they do but hearing young guys not ready in 2025 (as I doubt he meant midseason) is a baaaad omen. Infuriating when all he has to do is spend $110-120m as the pitching is there when healthy.

[Nick]

Welcome back lou.

[fish16]

This is what I saw and is bullshit. This team is really poorly run.

This gets them quick to moving Luzardo, Sandy ($$$), Puk, Sanchez, DLC, Burger, Nardi, Bender, and Rogers in the offseason IMO for a complete retool. They can’t piece this together without Jazz and getting young guys years away for him (absent a $120m payroll), so it just opens the floodgates to shedding all the money. And I do mean all of it as why keep any of it if you’re not going to go for it?

If they did that, they’d still have a full (healthy) rotation here in summer 2025 with Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, and Max which might be quite good fast, but for the love of fuck what a missed opportunity just not doing an assortment of these moves before the season if this was always the plan. Rookie POBO/GM moment and burned that Luzardo year in particular.

Will be interested in seeing what they do but hearing young guys not ready in 2025 (as I doubt he meant midseason) is a baaaad omen. Infuriating when all he has to do is spend $110-120m as the pitching is there when healthy.

who could have possibly seen this coming when they traded their best hitter for a 19 year old and 2 non top prospects. Even better that the 19 year old's best tool is his speed and he immediately has major hip surgery. This has been obvious since berti was dealt for an 18 year old. Arraez was the clear indication this was happening and that they had absolutely no intention to even try to be good next year. Not sure how you're just realizing this. This was the entire point behind why the arraez trade was so nonsensical.

Also, Puk, DLC, Bender, and Rogers have 0 value. DLC sucks, Puk is more likely to be non-tendered than traded for anything of value, Bender is a guy, and Rogers hasnt been good in 3 full years, The only pieces of value they have are Sandy, Eury, Weathers, Garrett, maybe Cabrera but he's probably minimal at this point, and then burger also very minimal value.

Their best trade piece that hasnt blown out his elbow is injured and now cant get them what they need. It is a terrible organization with 0 feel for how to make a team good in this market or how to even be bad.

[Todd]

There really is no plan outside of making Sherman more money.

MLB allowing him to buy the team is still mind boggling.

[Namaste]

I go away for 2 months as couldn’t take the stupid any longer and enjoyed the Panthers amazing run, and this is the first thing here and we’re STILL on this and trying to make Arraez great again? Oh man are you a glutton for punishment or what.

Just here to say this team sucks and they really need their entire rotation healthy (obviously). But main point is next post

I must subconsciously like the pain. There's no other explanation.

It's nice to see you back, lou

[Namaste]

Also, Puk, DLC, Bender, and Rogers have 0 value.

I just saw on the morning news that the circus has issued a BOLO for a missing clown.

[fish16]

Luis Arraez has a 0.6 WAR this year.

Jazz Chisholm has a 1.4 WAR

Congratulations. You have reached clown levels never before seen on a sports forum.

Now do last year when Arraez wasn’t playing through a shoulder injury. I mean you’re going to see in the next 3 weeks just how little value jazz actually has. He’s not that good of a player. And they’ve acted like he’s a superstar for years. But I’m sure you’ll apologize on behalf of the organization like you do for every trade.

Also, again, which is it? IS he just so good that we couldnt afford to give him a reasonable extension? Or is he so mediocre that we should have traded him to decimate an already terrible lineup in exchange for 3 prospects who arent good and wont contribute any time soon if ever? You dont actually have an argument. that move made 0 sense except for in a world where they plan on tanking for 3 full years, which if thats acceptable to you at this point is pathetic on your end.

[fish16]

I just saw on the morning news that the circus has issued a BOLO for a missing clown.

Tell me which one of those guys has value and what that value is in a trade. You’re such a fucking homer it’s a joke.

[lou]

I must subconsciously like the pain. There's no other explanation.

It's nice to see you back, lou

No other explanation!


BTW, did you know AJ Puk as a RP since the start of 2023 has this statline - 81 IP, 11.22 K/9, 3.56 ERA (3.06 xFIP), 1.4 WAR. He's been even better his last 24+ innings with a 2.56 era since May 1st this season.

He's making $1.8m this year and overall statline depressed (i.e. hurts in arbitration) because of the failed SP experiment. I think they should offer him a four year extension right now (2 free agency years) around $15-18m total as RP of his quality in free agency make $7-9m easily and this could be a depressed asset because of said SP experiment. IMO, as a RP, he would be foolish to turn down that guaranteed pay day for ages 30-33 (he's an older guy than we think he is) versus going year to year for 2 years in arbitration and maybe making a third of that through 2026. He's been a top 50 RP since the beginning of 2023, and only 10-15 guys have lower innings than him in front of him so he's probably closer to a top 30-35 RP in baseball if he had the SP time back with another 10+ innings in the bullpen. To note, Nardi is also in the top 50 and they wouldn't need to spend any money on him and could just go through arbitration, so they'd set up to have one of the best 1-2 lefty cores for years and Bendix can do his magic for a third bullpen lefty (they loved Simpson before the season/injury so maybe this is internal already, or Monteverde turns into a kitchen sink third lefty/longman change of pace 4.32 reliever which would be fine as the last guy in the pen).

Just saying here, when we're talking about what to look for among the alleged valueless Marlins with no trade value, all one needs to do is take a peak under the hood and see while they certainly need 6+ (maybe more) MLB bats to add to the team immediately (significant ones too!), the pitching is still in fantastic shape longterm with opportunities to make it even better with extensions for control years. I'm anticipating Luzardo and Sandy are moved at this point to save that money, so if they did something like extend Puk for 4, they could also....

Extend Rogers for something around 4/$20 (+incentives). Despite disappointment he's not turning back into his rookie year, he's started settling in last 10 starts (52.2 IP, 3.59 ERA. The xFIP is 4.55, but there is some encouraging analytical basis he is starting to have a better grasp of repertoire with his lower velocity now. Changeup is pretty solid, slider is OK, but just needs to figure out the FB/Sinker a little bit to play off the other two. I think the Marlins stellar pitch mix program will eventually click into splitting that ERA/xFIP difference and he's a floor very low 4 ERA pitcher who can be a valued 2 time through the lineup guy to eat 130-140 IP minimum). That money is tied to depressed arbitration figures too due to his health/not amazing statline and then paying him as a good RP in free agency. He'd be a free agent at 31 so he has big pay day potential, but would lock in triple his career earnings for a guy who has had some health problems. The point here, in a world the Kyle Gibson and whatever SP are getting $8-11m a season in free agency, and even the Lorenzen's who will get closer to $7m once they hit their incentive package, this isn't a huge risk at all. The floor is, Rogers is moved to the pen where he'd be slightly expensive for a RP on a poorer team, and then just pump sliders at people and would probably excel similar to many other SP conversions across baseball last few years. Eury, Meyer, and various RHP relievers are going to be cheap(er) these years so they can "splurge" on very small deals like this imo. And there is also.....

Cabrera could fit this bill. I am still a HUGE HUGE believer even if he ends up in the pen as he physically can't start, so you could aim for a 5/$20-22m deal for Cabrera (1 free agency year) and tac on a 6th year option for another $10-15m if he does fully work out. Cabrera's career earnings are $2m at 26 years old which is an important note here. I'm not sure how he can say no to something like $20m bucks with what he's made to date and age, and you're paying Cabrera as a mid priced FA RHP RP here. He'll have the ability to bank more as a 31/32 year old in the market if he makes it as SP or shutdown RP, but securing $20m today is a hell of a move for him IMO and could be just a truly astounding deal for the Marlins if he gets over his issues. The analytics don't lie. He is some walks away from being a top 20 SP in baseball, so make a bet he can harness enough to be a bottom 75th percentile guy with control instead of bottom 95th percentile as that makes him a superstar. Or he becomes a wilder Mason Miller (i.e. Tanner Scott). All good for me either way.

Big picture, these are the type of risks a "poor" franchise must take IMO and these 3 are good ones from internal options at these price points and they would comp out as being reasonable to other moves across baseball.


Basically, this season sucks but we're at the point of projecting to better days. I'd like to see some vision here besides just a dump and sell and circling 2026, but really circling 2027. I'm doubtful they would do this because of Bruce being an anchor and/or maybe Bendix is legitimately terrible, but the problem with the team is effectively needing core "3-4-5" hitter bats. Despite all the crap going on, they do have a lot of the other parts figured out so my hope is if they do make bold Sandy, Luzardo, and Jazz trades to try and right the bat ship with younger options, even if its for young guys and 2026 is circled, they can make not expensive secondary pitching extensions now to build out more arm control which is what hypothetical Puk/Rogers/Cabrera extensions would do.

I will be sad to see Sandy, Luzardo, and Jazz go ultimately, but can just accept that is coming. But, if they simultaneously do a few strategic deals to telegraph to us they have a plan, all of sudden this would be relatively inspiring:

Eury (controlled through 2029 and is obviously a BIG extension candidate post 2025. Hopefully this moves to 2032/2033. See below)
Cabrera (2029 via my hypothetical extension)
Garrett (2028)
Weathers (2028)
Max (2028 via the service time manipulation and seems rather important now)
Rogers (2028 via my hypothetical extension)

Nardi (2028)
Puk (2028 via my hypothetical extension)
Cronin (2029, he looks like a good Bendix find and a solid middle guy for years)
Maldonado/Faucher/Will likely develop another whatever mid-tier RP or three (2029)

That's pretty damn good IMO with potential summer 2026 arrivals from Noble (est. 2032-2033, match a Eury extension to his arb years) and White (est. 2032-2033, same) as they are already in A+ in 2024. Add those two to this mix for 26-28 and pump fists with what this looks like on paper. I think this is the best organizational move to set up the pitching similar to above (and maybe its just Puk and Cabrera and not Rogers, it'll more with just 2 of them if this is anticipating spending a little less here) and its frankly just some cheaper arbitration extensions for your middle pitchers. Solidify most of the main/secondary pitching through 2028 without Sandy and Luzardo. That'll show real vision that DURING a dump of your big names, they've built in a legitimate pitching window for 4+ seasons from right now. And literally no one will be too expensive here except maybe Eury so the math will math assuming Sandy/Luzardo/Jazz do bring back call it 5+ club controlled bats to match with other controlled bats that they currently have (Berry? Is he alive all of a sudden as he is hitting all of a sudden? Mack? Mesa Jr.? Head? Martorella?, 2024 presumably college bat 1st rounder? Otto seems pretty ok? Edwards? Dane? They'll get a few guys here even if it's the bench.)


Hopefully smart decisions showing some vision will be made. We'll see what they do, but ultimately, other teams are going to view Puk, Rogers, Cabrera, etc. in this same fashion as above if the Marlins do choose to move them too, and Bendix will do absolutely fine trading those guys as everyone always needs pitching and those guys have a lot going for them despite hysteric doom criticism. It only takes one believer and 1 other team in baseball will believe in those guys similar to mentions above. The team is not devoid of talent. They are very hurt, don't know what's up with Burger but hopefully just some off-months, and Bendix made some very bad bets with Anderson, Gordon, Bethancourt, Brujan, etc. It's just that simple.

[fish16]

we really still doing posts with 5 hypothetical extensions that they have made abundantly clear by their actions they have no intention of making? also, yes, their pitching on paper is great, but it will look significantly worse once they deal some for bats, and we will then start this process of a long rebuild all over again.

As i said from the moment they traded arraez, this is a 3+ year rebuild, and that's being conservative. Everything the guy has done since coming here has been indicative of a full tear down being imminent. They will almost assuredly take a toolsy high school bat in the draft next

[Nick]

we really still doing posts with 5 hypothetical extensions that they have made abundantly clear by their actions they have no intention of making? also, yes, their pitching on paper is great, but it will look significantly worse once they deal some for bats, and we will then start this process of a long rebuild all over again.

As i said from the moment they traded arraez, this is a 3+ year rebuild, and that's being conservative. Everything the guy has done since coming here has been indicative of a full tear down being imminent. They will almost assuredly take a toolsy high school bat in the draft next

Dude, you're probably right that they won't re-sign anybody, but if we're not here to talk about how our terrible team can possibly turn it around, then what other fucking point is there to post on this board? There was a dude who used to come on here and shit on any shred of positivity, and you hated him and argued with him incessantly. You're that guy now. Trying to chase away the few members we have left.

[rmc523]

Mish suggesting the return for Jazz will be young prospects. “I would be surprised if a single player they get back in any deadline deal plays opening day in 2025”. It’s going to be a depressing couple of years.

I’m done as far as actual support. I won’t be watching or attending anytime soon, and will shift to more of a bandwagon type fan aside from following on here - I’m over it. it’s just a waste of time to devote anything to this organization when we have an owner that clearly could care less about the team. Until Bruce sells, it’ll be rinse and repeat every few years we’ll get a new GM because the plan didn’t work and over and over with forever mediocrity.

[rmc523]

There really is no plan outside of making Sherman more money.

MLB allowing him to buy the team is still mind boggling.

It’s because Jeter was involved, that’s it

[fish16]

Dude, you're probably right that they won't re-sign anybody, but if we're not here to talk about how our terrible team can possibly turn it around, then what other fucking point is there to post on this board? There was a dude who used to come on here and shit on any shred of positivity, and you hated him and argued with him incessantly. You're that guy now. Trying to chase away the few members we have left.

the team not giving a flying fuck about competing any time in the next 4 years by trading away the only quality bats they had in an already terrible lineup in Arraez and soon to be Jazz as well is the one trying to chase away the few members left here, not me for acknowledging reality and not wasting everyones time with novels that include 5 fucking extensions when they clearly wont give anyone a single extension. If you want to talk about how the team can possibly turn it around, the way to do so is to talk about their remaining quality pieces trade value and which 18 year old guy they will draft on sunday, which is where this is heading in the next few weeks through next trade deadline.

[fish16]

I’m done as far as actual support. I won’t be watching or attending anytime soon, and will shift to more of a bandwagon type fan aside from following on here - I’m over it. it’s just a waste of time to devote anything to this organization when we have an owner that clearly could care less about the team. Until Bruce sells, it’ll be rinse and repeat every few years we’ll get a new GM because the plan didn’t work and over and over with forever mediocrity.

this exactly. There is 0 reason for anyone to follow this team on a day to day basis as a die hard fan anymore. They have burned every benefit of the doubt possible.