2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

He doesn't get it.

Note, DLC has a higher WAR than Arraez *right now* (obviously that won't continue, but we can't rail on how one player can't field and is a doofus on the bases and ignore someone else who is just as bad in the field and slow on the bases). Arraez is very good, he's not a 4+ WAR player like baseball america says but he's a high floor 2-2.5 WAR platoon 1B/DH as that OBP is going to play. I'm glad he landed in a good spot for him as he's going to be great there, but not sure how many more times we gotta say he does not align with the contending window on this team because *KIM* did not extend him. KIM fucked up here with Arraez.

so which is it? Is arraez just so fucking good that we cant afford to extend him as a 27 year old best pure hitter with the best plate discipline by far in baseball? Or is he a high floor 2-2.5 WAR platoon 1b/DH? You argue out of both sides of your mouth. There is 0 reason he couldnt have been extended and used as the centerpiece to rebuild on the fly with the rotation that we will have next year and beyond while completely overhauling the player development and scouting departments. He is not going to get this overwhelmingly large extension. They didnt get anything of significance for him that will help this team any time soon while we have a rotation that can be really good next year. They got a 19 year old who is nowhere close and 2 other guys who most people see as bench players more than starting caliber players.

This wasnt a mutually exclusive option that this team had. You can accomplish trying to not tear the entire team down yet again while also focusing on rebuilding the entire organization from the ground up again.

They have 0 pathway to be a contender next year. 0. And you'll just keep regurgitating the same bullshit until you realize that yet again you just wasted 8 months typing out the same 12 paragraph solutions over and over and over where this team can win next year if they just make 8 major moves and spend a shit ton of money and fill 7 lineup holes in a single offseason. It's the same thing over and over. The fact that you dont realize it yet is absurd. You can kill someone playing a drinking game where they drink every time you mention the werth signing, the 2023 payroll, and somehow manage to swing michael a taylor into the mix.

[fish16]

xFIP / K/9

Faucher 2.99 / 10.80
Nardi 2.99 / 12.86
Hoeing 3.29 / 7.32
Cronin 3.53 / 10.69
Bender 3.62 / 10.93
Puk (once the SP knocks them back fully to the pen)
Weathers

And they just added Go, and there are other guys like Maldonado (or do you hate him now?)


This post is rage amplified by their bad record. The bullpen is actually coming along if you follow the team.

i dont think you watch any other baseball other than the marlins, and im not sure that you actually watch any games vs just looking at stats on fangraphs. Every team has a set of 5-6 guys they can name like that out of the bullpen. Not a single one is a lock down backend arm. Maybe maldonado can be one at some point, but again, every team has a set of guys like that they can name. You love to just list out players as if every other team cant do the same.

[fish16]

on another note, sixto's average velocity is now down a full 4 MPH from 2020, and if he qualified he would have the lowest k/9 of any pitcher in the league among qualified pitchers and the 14th highest BB/9. He stinks.

[lou]

so which is it? Is arraez just so fucking good that we cant afford to extend him as a 27 year old best pure hitter with the best plate discipline by far in baseball? Or is he a high floor 2-2.5 WAR platoon 1b/DH? You argue out of both sides of your mouth. There is 0 reason he couldnt have been extended and used as the centerpiece to rebuild on the fly with the rotation that we will have next year and beyond while completely overhauling the player development and scouting departments. He is not going to get this overwhelmingly large extension. They didnt get anything of significance for him that will help this team any time soon while we have a rotation that can be really good next year. They got a 19 year old who is nowhere close and 2 other guys who most people see as bench players more than starting caliber players.

This wasnt a mutually exclusive option that this team had. You can accomplish trying to not tear the entire team down yet again while also focusing on rebuilding the entire organization from the ground up again.

They have 0 pathway to be a contender next year. 0. And you'll just keep regurgitating the same bullshit until you realize that yet again you just wasted 8 months typing out the same 12 paragraph solutions over and over and over where this team can win next year if they just make 8 major moves and spend a shit ton of money and fill 7 lineup holes in a single offseason. It's the same thing over and over. The fact that you dont realize it yet is absurd. You can kill someone playing a drinking game where they drink every time you mention the werth signing, the 2023 payroll, and somehow manage to swing michael a taylor into the mix.

This is why you don't get it in a nutshell.

You sign Arraez pre-2023 because he's going to be *CHEAPER* then doing it closer to free agency, and then you know, he happened to have his best season in 2023 to further drive his price up. So they cost themselves two levels of payroll increases by not signing him when they got him versus post-2023 when he got better to then scale his arbitration/buyout costs higher. So this "aha gotcha" moment you think you have here in saying I'm playing both sides about Arraez isn't that smart on your part and is missing the forest in the trees. This is about value and the value was in pre-2023 when he was 3 full seasons from free agency and that deal would be $30m less over 5-6 seasons, which frankly, is a big BIG deal to a team with a cheap owner. A high floor 2-2.5 WAR 1B/DH type that has an incredible one skill (OBP) makes it that much more insane to not have signed him, knowing that if he did cut it at 2B (which he isn't but irrelevant), you'd get even more. This was as safe as safe can be for an extension as he's going to hit for years even if nothing more and KIM ABSOLUTELY BLEW IT. You can go back to the day of trade and find a post with me saying sign him immediately. Which was right and now we're paying for it. To note, none of this is relevant in a vacuum about what to do with him May 1, 2024. This is the cost of Kim's mistake and then Bruce/Bendorx's inability to add players this offseason - a strategy you believed in mind you that they didn't need to sign all of these veteran types to build a better culture. So it's inconsistent now that you want to make cultural arguments when you alone on this board championed they don't need a better culture with "don't need a 5th SP," "don't need these veteran bench bats," etc. Makes no sense at all. You're all over the place with no consistency. You have to separate your rage and disappointment from what needs to happen.

And yes, there is -0- reason to extend him now as those extra $30m+ over years is too valuable to a team with a cheap owner. Again, you RAIL on efficiency and then when it suits your current drama because you like a particular player, you discard it. It's not efficient to do this now when they can get players + use that payroll elsewhere. (Plus extending him now would kick him out longer past 30 years of age, so there are side issues here). You may be right and maybe in 2 years Arraez won't do too well in free agency after he's relegated to DH land, but guys like Joc get $19m tenders and Chapman/Conforto still get around $20m a season with player options (Arraez is safer than all of these guys you know). Right now he's not accepting a deal lower than Bryan Reynolds, or will get a better annual value more similar to a Pablo Lopez level deal. So it's frankly logical to not extend him. He's not taking a 5/$75m extension today is what I am saying and you're a crazy person if you think he would take that. Can you give me a yes or not if you think Arraez will take that exact deal today? I think NO. Team's are going to be interested in that OBP. Arraez is going to be fine.

The mutual exclusive option of not tearing this team down and aiming to contend is keeping Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, (likely) Rogers, Max, Weathers, the potentially ascending bullpen you're ignoring, and an assortment of "OK" guys with Jazz, Burger, and likely a few of Edwards, Mesa Jr. yes DLC, Brujan, and others. Arraez and Luzardo, as the two most expensive non-Sandy (or Garcia sigh) guys is where you start and that's not debateable. They have to get rid of the larger money guys first. I agree with you, the Arraez return is skeptical, but who knows. They did get guys for 2025 in that deal even if not the core one and scout types like Law didn't hate it. I think they shouldn't have paid SDP money, but that's it. Also, baseball isn't basketball. There is no learning the offense. You plug and play 6 new bats on this team and they could be good extremely quickly.

I'd also like to note all of you mention Jayson Werth more than me as its a fun punching bag for you and Todd (despite if you read what I type I say I don't have expectations for Bruce to actually do this, but "there is merely a path and maybe they will do it" if they repeat 2023 payroll), and you respond to all of my posts with the same regurgitated bullshit, so I guess you're the crazier person here based on your own logic?

Relax. The 2024 season is a tryout for 2025 at this point. And that's OK because they aren't going to win the World Series. We'll have an EXTREMELY clear vision of what they expect to do in 2025 when we see what comes back for Luzardo (the top player must be a 2025 guy, etc.), and if they do trade multiple of Jazz, Burger, Rogers, Puk, DLC, etc. The Arraez move isn't a circle 2027 move despite kneejerk reactions, but maybe that happens with what is to follow. I have no idea. You have no idea.

[lou]

i dont think you watch any other baseball other than the marlins, and im not sure that you actually watch any games vs just looking at stats on fangraphs. Every team has a set of 5-6 guys they can name like that out of the bullpen. Not a single one is a lock down backend arm. Maybe maldonado can be one at some point, but again, every team has a set of guys like that they can name. You love to just list out players as if every other team cant do the same.

I picked 1 team at random - Rangers

xFIP

Sborz 2.63 (SSS even for this, but he's good when healthy so definitely counts)
Yates 3.02 (1 year of control)
Robertson 3.15 (1 year of control)
Latz 4.09
Jose Fucking Urena 4.14 (1 year of control)
Burke is hurt but I like him (would be the Puk equivalent)

This is about 15 years of team control, and 6 of that is Latz who is a backend FV40 RP type. He's an up/down optionable arm more than likely similar to the Marlins backend guys.


So the Rangers - who just won the World Series - don't have 5-6 guys they can name like the Marlins who collectively have around 30+ years of control. The Marlins guys are also exponentially cheaper. Rangers have some arms in the farm so maybe in 2026 they'd have something similar to the Marlins. Or you know, just spend because they need to do that. This is a team who should be trading for Scott for sure.


So this is another whiff on your part, but on review, we'll say it is a foul tip into the ground as you made contact as the bold is correct. They need a big time high leverage RHP arm, but this could be a pretty good pen needing a big right hander.

____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing/Cronin/Maldonado/Munoz (all 4 w/ options)
Puk, Nardi, Weathers(6th SP) (Simpson)

(And the blank line might be Max as look at AAA and he may just be a FB/SL guy ultimately and he is 2025's Mason Miller. Which would be fine if they keep Rogers and sign a 5th SP innings eater for next year)

[fish16]

This is why you don't get it in a nutshell.

You sign Arraez pre-2023 because he's going to be *CHEAPER* then doing it closer to free agency, and then you know, he happened to have his best season in 2023 to further drive his price up. So they cost themselves two levels of payroll increases by not signing him when they got him versus post-2023 when he got better to then scale his arbitration/buyout costs higher. So this "aha gotcha" moment you think you have here in saying I'm playing both sides about Arraez isn't that smart on your part and is missing the forest in the trees. This is about value and the value was in pre-2023 when he was 3 full seasons from free agency and that deal would be $30m less over 5-6 seasons, which frankly, is a big BIG deal to a team with a cheap owner. A high floor 2-2.5 WAR 1B/DH type that has an incredible one skill (OBP) makes it that much more insane to not have signed him, knowing that if he did cut it at 2B (which he isn't but irrelevant), you'd get even more. This was as safe as safe can be for an extension as he's going to hit for years even if nothing more and KIM ABSOLUTELY BLEW IT. You can go back to the day of trade and find a post with me saying sign him immediately. Which was right and now we're paying for it. To note, none of this is relevant in a vacuum about what to do with him May 1, 2024. This is the cost of Kim's mistake and then Bruce/Bendorx's inability to add players this offseason - a strategy you believed in mind you that they didn't need to sign all of these veteran types to build a better culture. So it's inconsistent now that you want to make cultural arguments when you alone on this board championed they don't need a better culture with "don't need a 5th SP," "don't need these veteran bench bats," etc. Makes no sense at all. You're all over the place with no consistency. You have to separate your rage and disappointment from what needs to happen.

And yes, there is -0- reason to extend him now as those extra $30m+ over years is too valuable to a team with a cheap owner. Again, you RAIL on efficiency and then when it suits your current drama because you like a particular player, you discard it. It's not efficient to do this now when they can get players + use that payroll elsewhere. (Plus extending him now would kick him out longer past 30 years of age, so there are side issues here). You may be right and maybe in 2 years Arraez won't do too well in free agency after he's relegated to DH land, but guys like Joc get $19m tenders and Chapman/Conforto still get around $20m a season with player options (Arraez is safer than all of these guys you know). Right now he's not accepting a deal lower than Bryan Reynolds, or will get a better annual value more similar to a Pablo Lopez level deal. So it's frankly logical to not extend him. He's not taking a 5/$75m extension today is what I am saying and you're a crazy person if you think he would take that. Can you give me a yes or not if you think Arraez will take that exact deal today? I think NO. Team's are going to be interested in that OBP. Arraez is going to be fine.

The mutual exclusive option of not tearing this team down and aiming to contend is keeping Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, (likely) Rogers, Max, Weathers, the potentially ascending bullpen you're ignoring, and an assortment of "OK" guys with Jazz, Burger, and likely a few of Edwards, Mesa Jr. yes DLC, Brujan, and others. Arraez and Luzardo, as the two most expensive non-Sandy (or Garcia sigh) guys is where you start and that's not debateable. They have to get rid of the larger money guys first. I agree with you, the Arraez return is skeptical, but who knows. They did get guys for 2025 in that deal even if not the core one and scout types like Law didn't hate it. I think they shouldn't have paid SDP money, but that's it. Also, baseball isn't basketball. There is no learning the offense. You plug and play 6 new bats on this team and they could be good extremely quickly.

I'd also like to note all of you mention Jayson Werth more than me as its a fun punching bag for you and Todd (despite if you read what I type I say I don't have expectations for Bruce to actually do this, but "there is merely a path and maybe they will do it" if they repeat 2023 payroll), and you respond to all of my posts with the same regurgitated bullshit, so I guess you're the crazier person here based on your own logic?

Relax. The 2024 season is a tryout for 2025 at this point. And that's OK because they aren't going to win the World Series. We'll have an EXTREMELY clear vision of what they expect to do in 2025 when we see what comes back for Luzardo (the top player must be a 2025 guy, etc.), and if they do trade multiple of Jazz, Burger, Rogers, Puk, DLC, etc. The Arraez move isn't a circle 2027 move despite kneejerk reactions, but maybe that happens with what is to follow. I have no idea. You have no idea.

Arraez is going to be an extremely efficient use of resources. That's the point. He hits. He has an elite skill set as a hitter that every single team can use. His lack of defensive value will get factored into any contract he gets. He isnt going to be getting even more than 20 million per year. He would be worth every fucking penny of a contract extension he gets. The fact that he is more expensive than he was a year ago doesnt make him not worth what he would get now. That's the point. You are so focused on him being more than he could have been that you cant possibly fathom that he is still absolutely worth what he would get today. Especially for a team with a pitching staff designed to compete in the short term and literally nothing in the pipeline offensively that you can pencil in long term. NOTHING.

The option of not tearing it down and rebuilding on the fly that you just named without him was 7 pitchers (a few of which are just not very good- see Trevor Rogers), a guy who is simply a platoon guy in jazz, burger who can hit but has no defensive value and seems to be injury prone, and a bunch of guys that havent proven a single fucking thing at the major league level. It's a team with a good pitching staff and the worst lineup in baseball and absolutely nothing in the system. Does that sound familiar to you? It's the 2022 team that won 69 games.

And im sorry man, if you cant see by this point given the lower level guys they keep acquiring that this is a full fucking tear down and they arent trying to win next year, i dont know how to help you. You'll realize it after 200-300 more posts about the 15 moves they can make between now and next opening day that will allow them to contend, most of which include spending a shit ton of money that they will never spend.

If you cant realize that the plan is to fully tear this thing down in a way that will hopefully allow them to compete in 5 years with the lowest payroll in baseball, that's on you. You can delude yourself otherwise, but that's the plan. It's a complete fucking disgrace, and you'll realize it one way or another soon enough.

[fish16]

I picked 1 team at random - Rangers

xFIP

Sborz 2.63 (SSS even for this, but he's good when healthy so definitely counts)
Yates 3.02 (1 year of control)
Robertson 3.15 (1 year of control)
Latz 4.09
Jose Fucking Urena 4.14 (1 year of control)
Burke is hurt but I like him (would be the Puk equivalent)

This is about 15 years of team control, and 6 of that is Latz who is a backend FV40 RP type. He's an up/down optionable arm more than likely similar to the Marlins backend guys.


So the Rangers - who just won the World Series - don't have 5-6 guys they can name like the Marlins who collectively have around 30+ years of control. The Marlins guys are also exponentially cheaper. Rangers have some arms in the farm so maybe in 2026 they'd have something similar to the Marlins. Or you know, just spend because they need to do that. This is a team who should be trading for Scott for sure.


So this is another whiff on your part, but on review, we'll say it is a foul tip into the ground as you made contact as the bold is correct. They need a big time high leverage RHP arm, but this could be a pretty good pen needing a big right hander.

____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing/Cronin/Maldonado/Munoz (all 4 w/ options)
Puk, Nardi, Weathers(6th SP) (Simpson)

(And the blank line might be Max as look at AAA and he may just be a FB/SL guy ultimately and he is 2025's Mason Miller. Which would be fine if they keep Rogers and sign a 5th SP innings eater for next year)

Calvin Faucher is 28 with 0 WAR in 58 career innings pitched. He's pitched 11 fucking innings this year. Go has been thoroughly mediocre in AA. We've seen what bender is, a decent middle reliever who you shouldnt rely on in any high leverage situation. Hoeing is a long reliever with a -.6 War for his career. Cronin even throughout his minor league career has consistently been in the mid 4's with his XFIP. None of this is impressive. There is a reason why most of those guys were given up on waivers by their previous teams or for very cheap. Every team has these kind of guys.

It's not a trainwreck, but it's certainly not anything to look at on paper and really be enthused about. It is a bunch of journeyman middle relievers. To tout that as anything to write home about is just ridiculous. you just like to list names and act like it is an impressive group of players.

[lou]

Arraez is going to be an extremely efficient use of resources. That's the point. He hits. He has an elite skill set as a hitter that every single team can use. His lack of defensive value will get factored into any contract he gets. He isnt going to be getting even more than 20 million per year. He would be worth every fucking penny of a contract extension he gets. The fact that he is more expensive than he was a year ago doesnt make him not worth what he would get now. That's the point. You are so focused on him being more than he could have been that you cant possibly fathom that he is still absolutely worth what he would get today. Especially for a team with a pitching staff designed to compete in the short term and literally nothing in the pipeline offensively that you can pencil in long term. NOTHING.

The option of not tearing it down and rebuilding on the fly that you just named without him was 7 pitchers (a few of which are just not very good- see Trevor Rogers), a guy who is simply a platoon guy in jazz, burger who can hit but has no defensive value, and a bunch of guys that havent proven a single fucking thing at the major league level. It's a team with a good pitching staff and the worst lineup in baseball and absolutely nothing in the system. Does that sound familiar to you? It's the 2022 team that won 69 games.

And im sorry man, if you cant see by this point given the lower level guys they keep acquiring that this is a full fucking tear down and they arent trying to win next year, i dont know how to help you. You'll realize it after 200-300 more posts about the 15 moves they can make between now and next opening day that will allow them to contend, most of which include spending a shit ton of money that they will never spend.

If you cant realize that the plan is to fully tear this thing down in a way that will hopefully allow them to compete in 5 years with the lowest payroll in baseball, that's on you. You can delude yourself otherwise, but that's the plan. It's a complete fucking disgrace, and you'll realize it one way or another soon enough.

Extremely efficient for Arraez was pre 2023 time of acquisition but Kim and/or Bruce messed up here. Not much else to say here. And it is A LOT more expensive which matters unless you expect to scale payroll to $130m range as the team needs A LOT of parts. We all agree they need A LOT right? And they need money to do that right as the farm is marginal at best? I don't think Arraez is worth a $100-110m extension for this team. He's worth 5/$75m if he'd take that. He wouldn't IMO. Do you think he takes $75m?

Also the SP is designed for the longterm with Sandy (3), Eury (5+), Garrett (4), Cabrera (4), Max (5+), and others have massive control. Rogers is also fine. He could be a valuable 5th SP or likely very good RP. They have many controllable relievers and a few are going to work out. That has huge value to not spend money on the bullpen.

How quickly you turned on Burger who you loved and now has no defensive value? Burger is also fine. Nothing has changed with him. Getting that power output at 1B/DH is good. He's cheap. He is a win now player though as I said a month ago - and again got yelled at by the board for suggesting moving him too - so I can see him going in the right deal if needed. But they can also just keep him.

I agree with the bold. Absent some unexpected explosions (Mesa Jr. becomes Cowser, etc.), they will need $40-50m in free agency to be good. But as I keep saying, this is under what they did in 2023 so I don't know what they will do. You don't know either but are convinced.

A full tear down is moving out Sandy, Luzardo, Jazz, Rogers, Puk, and Bender and likely all of Cabrera, Garrett, Burger, and DLC. I don't see that happening, but I can be a wrong. And I'm not an asshole if that happens. And you're not an asshole if that doesn't happen. It's just an analysis of how bad Bruce actually is. You can count me on the team they expect to be good in 2025, and not in a 2024 way. It's a lowest common denominator. If this is the pitching staff which is the strength longterm on paper, they have a real chance to be able to fix the bats with Luzardo/Scott trades + money if Bruce so chooses.

Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers/Weathers, ____/Max (Eury midseason)
____/Max, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing/Cronin/Maldonado/Munoz
Puk, Nardi, Weathers/Rogers (6th SP)


I'd relax and just see how things look August 1st to start projecting guys. Some good things are happening under the surface (Mesa Jr., Brujan, emerging RP) so we'll just see what happens, if that continues, and can pray Bruce does anything to fill slots. I've said this many times before, I'm over a 0% and under a 50% chance Bruce does the right thing.

[fish16]

Extremely efficient for Arraez was pre 2023 time of acquisition but Kim and/or Bruce messed up here. Not much else to say here. And it is A LOT more expensive which matters unless you expect to scale payroll to $130m range as the team needs A LOT of parts. We all agree they need A LOT right? And they need money to do that right as the farm is marginal at best? I don't think Arraez is worth a $100-110m extension for this team. He's worth 5/$75m if he'd take that. He wouldn't IMO. Do you think he takes $75m?

Also the SP is designed for the longterm with Sandy (3), Eury (5+), Garrett (4), Cabrera (4), Max (5+), and others have massive control. Rogers is also fine. He could be a valuable 5th SP or likely very good RP. They have many controllable relievers and a few are going to work out. That has huge value to not spend money on the bullpen.

How quickly you turned on Burger who you loved and now has no defensive value? Burger is also fine. Nothing has changed with him. Getting that power output at 1B/DH is good. He's cheap. He is a win now player though as I said a month ago - and again got yelled at by the board for suggesting moving him too - so I can see him going in the right deal if needed. But they can also just keep him.

I agree with the bold. Absent some unexpected explosions (Mesa Jr. becomes Cowser, etc.), they will need $40-50m in free agency to be good. But as I keep saying, this is under what they did in 2023 so I don't know what they will do. You don't know either but are convinced.

A full tear down is moving out Sandy, Luzardo, Jazz, Rogers, Puk, and Bender and likely all of Cabrera, Garrett, Burger, and DLC. I don't see that happening, but I can be a wrong. And I'm not an asshole if that happens. And you're not an asshole if that doesn't happen. It's just an analysis of how bad Bruce actually is. You can count me on the team they expect to be good in 2025, and not in a 2024 way. It's a lowest common denominator. If this is the pitching staff which is the strength longterm on paper, they have a real chance to be able to fix the bats with Luzardo/Scott trades + money if Bruce so chooses.

Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers/Weathers, ____/Max (Eury midseason)
____/Max, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing/Cronin/Maldonado/Munoz
Puk, Nardi, Weathers/Rogers (6th SP)


I'd relax and just see how things look August 1st to start projecting guys. Some good things are happening under the surface (Mesa Jr., Brujan, emerging RP) so we'll just see what happens, if that continues, and can pray Bruce does anything to fill slots. I've said this many times before, I'm over a 0% and under a 50% chance Bruce does the right thing.

I like Burger, but if he is your 2nd best hitter your team fucking sucks. Big power, low OBP, limited defensive value 1b/DH's are not super hard to find. Not a bad player by any stretch, but if he is your 2nd best hitter you have an awful fucking lineup. on a true contender's lineup he is your 5th to 7th best position player.

m not going to fight over whether it is a lot more expensive now or just a little more expensive now. The reality is he is well worth what he would get in an extension now and his lack of defensive value will be factored in. He's not going to get over 100 million. He will be well worth the number he ends up getting. and he would especially worth that to a marlins team who is desperate to have a competent lineup paired with a good rotation with almost nothing else in the way of long term contracts on the books.

Without arraez, this team has 0 pathway to contending next year if they even were trying to comepte next year, which they arent.

And it will be a full tear down- Luzardo, Jazz, and Scott will be gone by the deadline, as will Bell. That is absolutely a full tear down with Sandy and Eury out with TJ until next year. Rogers and puk have no significant value in a trade to the point where it makes sense to move them. You will realize it soon enough.

Realistically, what they are going to do is decimate the team, get rid of all long term salary other than Sandy, and you are going to delude yourself that they are going to start spending money to build the team back up, which they wont, because they have a cheap owner who has no business owning the team and no major free agent wants to sign here.

[lou]

Calvin Faucher is 28 with 0 WAR in 58 career innings pitched. He's pitched 11 fucking innings this year. Go has been thoroughly mediocre in AA. We've seen what bender is, a decent middle reliever who you shouldnt rely on in any high leverage situation. Hoeing is a long reliever with a -.6 War for his career. Cronin even throughout his minor league career has consistently been in the mid 4's with his XFIP. None of this is impressive. There is a reason why most of those guys were given up on waivers by their previous teams or for very cheap. Every team has these kind of guys.

It's not a trainwreck, but it's certainly not anything to look at on paper and really be enthused about. It is a bunch of journeyman middle relievers. To tout that as anything to write home about is just ridiculous. you just like to list names and act like it is an impressive group of players.

The bold is the entire point. We got there! Who is touting? Did I say I think it's a top 5 bullpen, because I haven't. That bullpen isn't embarrassing, has some fair upside, and will cost $10m total with replacements (not including a closer unless they move Max/CC option to the last blank line above). It's fine with what they are doing on paper here. Nardi was amazing last year. Relievers are volatile. He's going to be fine. Rinse/repeat with other guys.

This is the point - they have 12+ arms ready to go for 2025 right now (not including Luzardo and Eury) and that are all suitable for their roles. They need a high leverage RHP for sure absent that is not a Max conversion, and then they'd need what they always need. A 5th veteran SP. Maybe Weathers totally works out but I imagine he gets kicked back to the pen.

I'm just going to keep saying it as it is the only thing that is happening here - will FA fill the holes next year or not? It's Bruce. I've been saying it's Bruce for 3 years now. It's consistent. You don't think Bruce will spend money. I think I don't know the answer to that question and am hopeful he'll spend like 2023 as he has once before. That is the literal only thing here. You're probably right and Bruce is an asshole and won't do what he has done before as he sucks so much, but there is this glimmer of hope he'll repeat 2023 with a healthy pitching staff (que the never going to happen jokes). That's it here. But I will maintain, they have 18-20+ guys for the 2025 roster already (assuming health) and the missing ones are "very" important but it's not dead in the water today. Maybe it gets there. We'll see. None of us know and this is being an apologist. They have legitimate arms and at least bench bats. No one disagrees here.

[lou]

I like Burger, but if he is your 2nd best hitter your team fucking sucks. Big power, low OBP, limited defensive value 1b/DH's are not super hard to find. Not a bad player by any stretch, but if he is your 2nd best hitter you have an awful fucking lineup. on a true contender's lineup he is your 5th to 7th best position player.

m not going to fight over whether it is a lot more expensive now or just a little more expensive now. The reality is he is well worth what he would get in an extension now and his lack of defensive value will be factored in. He's not going to get over 100 million. He will be well worth the number he ends up getting. and he would especially worth that to a marlins team who is desperate to have a competent lineup paired with a good rotation with almost nothing else in the way of long term contracts on the books.

Without arraez, this team has 0 pathway to contending next year if they even were trying to comepte next year, which they arent.

And it will be a full tear down- Luzardo, Jazz, and Scott will be gone by the deadline, as will Bell. That is absolutely a full tear down with Sandy and Eury out with TJ until next year. Rogers and puk have no significant value in a trade to the point where it makes sense to move them. You will realize it soon enough.

Realistically, what they are going to do is decimate the team, get rid of all long term salary other than Sandy, and you are going to delude yourself that they are going to start spending money to build the team back up, which they wont, because they have a cheap owner who has no business owning the team and no major free agent wants to sign here.

Right on Burger.

Will Arraez accept a 5/$75m contract or not? If you're a no, he must go. (It's a no)

Disagree on -0- pathway. See above. The lowest common denominator is a healthy pitching staff - which includes getting Eury back in the summer which is a realistic timetable for July.

A full tear down is not just Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz, and Scott. That is not decimating the 2025 team by any stretch of the imagination as the entire SP staff is basically intact, however they will absolutely need 3-4 2025 players for moving those later 3 and 2 of them will need to be really good to cut bait with Luzardo and Jazz.

Asked and answered 30 times, but I am not deluding myself Bruce will spend money and you are attacking a point I am not making.

Right on Bruce has no business owning this team and MLB should be calling him to push his ass out behind the scenes.


Relax. Just hope the Luzardo/Scott deals look good or maybe 2026 is in fact being circle with speaks for itself and then my question is, what's the best Florida Panthers board?

[rmc523]

What's the issue here if Bruce commits to spending 2023 (and also as an aside, do you think they do nothing based on the backlash and it's going to only rise when Luzardo and maybe someone else is traded?) They could easily sign Adames, Jansen, and a $10m LF, and add a premium piece for Luzardo and 1-2 other FV45 type bats as a floor. Under what they spent in 2023. It rebuilds the lineup very quickly as remember, Edwards is also not accounted for in this, nor the two new Padres guys near MLB ready, and maybe they are going to get something out of Brujan, Mesa Jr., or someone else.

The 2024 strategy is very obvious seeing what's happening. They wanted to field an "acceptable" bad team to get to July and make these trades then, but the SP got really hurt, and some of the guys are worse than expected, so that time table has been moved up. They wanted to have their cake and eat it too. If they weren't going to really try, they should have done this all in the offseason and been honest about it as said in November and got yelled at. I fault them heavily for that, but do think it is GOOD they are admitting the mistake and pulling the plug now. I question the return in that is Head going to be this good, but the decision to sell was right and maybe Bendorx is going to be right in the end. Keith Law hates the Marlins so him saying anything neutral or better is a compliment FWIW (would love to see that if someone has an excerpt). That's at least something.


So the question is only one thing - what is Bruce going to do. I think we all agree on the answer, but there is a clear as day path to them being very good with a payroll they have already committed to once so long as the SP can stay healthy. My prediction here is no one is going to check out and be happy with the 20-22 internal guys they have, along with a relatively rebuilt farm, entering 2025 with what the hell is FA going to look like as the only question mark. This isn't being an apologist either. They just have good parts and a low payroll even if the oomph bats are missing. It's all Bruce here to fill that void. I'll be surprised if they trade everything and circle 2027 basically. They are terrible and beyond forgiveness if that happens.

My issue is I just have less than 0 confidence that Bruce actually follows through with any sort of spending. He’s promised spending when the time is right. After a playoff year - even without Sandy - was the time, even if it’s just ONE piece this year before more moves next year.

why should I believe going forward that they’re going to do what needs to be done in any facet except for being cheap? You’re already pushing the analytical “circle” date to 2027…

[lou]

I floated this before also in April and I believe Nick said something similar:


What's Luzardo, Scott, and Burger get from Baltimore right now.

Mayo, Bradfield, Norby, C. Williams, and A. Hayes. Maybe take on Urias/Mateo salary too. No Basallo. No Kjerstad. No Holliday. No Cowser. Baltimore gets the bash with Burger to contend right now with no Mayo growing pains which the Marlins can certainly take on in 2024.


I don't know how anyone says no to that and that's 3 guys for 2025 for the Marlins and the future OF is starting to look intense in this hypothetical with Bradfield, Mesa Jr., Head, Cova, and Cruz in the farm.


The sky isn't falling - but I don't disagree it might pretty soon but we just have to see what happens.

[fish16]

Right on Burger.

Will Arraez accept a 5/$75m contract or not? If you're a no, he must go. (It's a no)

Disagree on -0- pathway. See above. The lowest common denominator is a healthy pitching staff - which includes getting Eury back in the summer which is a realistic timetable for July.

A full tear down is not just Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz, and Scott. That is not decimating the 2025 team by any stretch of the imagination as the entire SP staff is basically intact, however they will absolutely need 3-4 2025 players for moving those later 3 and 2 of them will need to be really good to cut bait with Luzardo and Jazz.

Asked and answered 30 times, but I am not deluding myself Bruce will spend money and you are attacking a point I am not making.

Right on Bruce has no business owning this team and MLB should be calling him to push his ass out behind the scenes.


Relax. Just hope the Luzardo/Scott deals look good or maybe 2026 is in fact being circle with speaks for itself and then my question is, what's the best Florida Panthers board?

Teams arent spending major money on non superstar free agents anymore for the most part. 2 guys TOTAL got more than 100 million in free agency last year, Ohtani and Nola. The year before it was 10, but those were super long term deals for the most part like Turner, Bogaerts, Judge, Swanson, Correa, Nimmo, Rodon.

You say will he accept that offer. They. Didnt. Try. They didnt make a single attempt to re-sign him according to all reports. He's closer to the Wilson contreras 5/87.5, Benintendi 5/75, Chapman 3/54, Bellinger 3/80 range. And he's well worth that.

trading Arraez and Jazz off of a team whose lineup was already pretty fucking bad is absolutely decimating the 2025 team. You can continue this pipe dream if you want, but there is no path to being even average trading the best pieces off an already bad lineup and thinking you're still going to be good next year simply because your rotation looks good on paper.

[lou]

My issue is I just have less than 0 confidence that Bruce actually follows through with any sort of spending. He’s promised spending when the time is right. After a playoff year - even without Sandy - was the time, even if it’s just ONE piece this year before more moves next year.

why should I believe going forward that they’re going to do what needs to be done in any facet except for being cheap? You’re already pushing the analytical “circle” date to 2027…

Because all he has to spend is 2023 money in 2025. Tackle larger issues later. They will be a team we can appreciate well on paper if they do that + healthy SP. I keep saying this over and over. It's fine if anyone wants to say no thanks to him spending 2023 money in 2025 (he does suck), all I am saying - all I am saying - is there is a clear path with the SP/staff being pretty good/projectable + matching what they have factually done once before payroll wise. Maybe it's a 25% chance of happening, but I mean baseball is hard and what else are they going to do? This is the only way they will be good in 2025 IMO absent true insane breakouts like Mesa Jr. and Brujan become 3+ WAR players this year.

It's this or circle 2027. Not even 2026. 2027. They will have to burn it all way the fuck down if not as it's not going to swing in 2026 either absent some ownership commitments.