2023 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Fuck it "Juan Soto" or "Mike Trout" from the guy who says the team has to be frugal in all of its deal is quite a knee jerk reaction. You aren't wrong that they need a bunch of guys, but this is way too much with those players. It is definitely a new owner. They also can improve without them and have the resources to do it IMO. Also just to mention, if Bruce decides to say fuck it and just go for it, I think you sign Snell. It avoids trading resources, and opens up the Marlins moving a pitcher for a bat which seems more productive versus this FA bat class.

If Bell opts out, it is also a BLESSING to clear $16.5m off payroll and use that for something else. Bell is a solid guy, but they can use that money more efficiently in FA + gets Arraez to 1B and Edwards to 2B. It's fine if he stays, but doing a two year deal with him would be asinine with the better defensive arrangement they can do immediately plus have that money for a more impactful player. Bell was a .4 WAR player (in his defense, he paced closer to a 2 WAR player per 600 PA with the Marlins post trade). DLC was a .2 WAR player and Cooper a .3 WAR player for perspective. I don't see how he recoups this money in FA where he can bet on himself and get a new deal post 2025 for whatever a 2 year deal would look like now. Belt got a 1/$9.3m deal from Toronto last year as a stick for hire. Bell also is on a good spot with a contender. I'll be shocked if he opts out. The lower depth of the FA class isn't just going to get him an overreach deal IMO.

Soler ended the year with the 13th highest xwOBA (qualified hitters). That's ahead of Goldschmidt, Alonso, and Tatis. He is a priority to retain IMO as they have no chance of replicating that offensive production in any manner. I strongly feel what you said of Bell happens with Soler - he opts out and they work out a 2 year deal (low $30s), and if they don't, he gets a qualifying offer ($19) and is "stuck" just like Joc Pederson last year. This will go a long ways to start improving the team from what they have under control. Remember, all of Segura, Yuli, and Cooper's PA are being replaced effectively by Burger and Bell (and a little Edwards) and that's going to be an enormous net gain. Big picture, they ended 27th in runs. But the two month split post Bell/Burger moved them to 22nd. Jazz was back too for most of that. That isn't something to do backflips over, but that's legitimate progress so keeping Soler in the picture should maintain that as a floor.

Which gets us to yes, they need some bats. I think it is a minimum of 1,500 vastly improved PA over 3 players (which can include Soler), with one being at least a 3-4+ WAR star. I do think Adames qualifies for that (four seasons over a 3 WAR and one of those over a 4, etc.) even if he has a lot of defensive value. He's great. Hopefully Milwaukee's playoff collapse and the rise of the Cubs/Reds makes them rethink their strategy as their contending window is effectively over IMO and they need to scorch earth as they aren't as good on paper as the Cardinals below those other two. I'll be interested in seeing what they do here, but 1 control year of Adames is not great for them.


But the big question just to say it out loud is what is happening with Sandy? If he's getting a TJ, it changes the entire offseason for them. So I'm going to pause thinking what their options may be until we have some clarity there. If he is fine, this is going to be as easy as retain Soler and do everything in your power to get Adames and Danny Jansen. Resign them both (as well as Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, and Jazz) and you have a strong as hell longterm core with those 6 + Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Burger, J. Sanchez, Meyer, various RP, and maybe some of the fleeting bats work out (Fortes, Edwards, Amaya, etc.). It's a sub $120m team easily. Pray for Sandy as needing 200 more quality innings on top of the desperate need for 1,500 improved PA which is going to cost a lot in trade or dollars is a lot to ask for absent a $140m payroll.

Sandy will probably try to rehab, start opening day, and go down after 2 innings and need TJ then, screwing us longer - that's a Marlins thing to happen.

[lou]

Sandy will probably try to rehab, start opening day, and go down after 2 innings and need TJ then, screwing us longer - that's a Marlins thing to happen.

Totally. They better have 90% confidence that this won't happen. He should probably get it before Thanksgiving if he needs it to be really built up by spring training 2025. Bruce will just have to step up and replace the innings. This team has earned that from him at a minimum in addition to whatever resources they have to fix the bats

[fish16]

Fuck it "Juan Soto" or "Mike Trout" from the guy who says the team has to be frugal in all of its deal is quite a knee jerk reaction. You aren't wrong that they need a bunch of guys, but this is way too much with those players. It is definitely a new owner. They also can improve without them and have the resources to do it IMO. Also just to mention, if Bruce decides to say fuck it and just go for it, I think you sign Snell. It avoids trading resources, and opens up the Marlins moving a pitcher for a bat which seems more productive versus this FA bat class.

If Bell opts out, it is also a BLESSING to clear $16.5m off payroll and use that for something else. Bell is a solid guy, but they can use that money more efficiently in FA + gets Arraez to 1B and Edwards to 2B. It's fine if he stays, but doing a two year deal with him would be asinine with the better defensive arrangement they can do immediately plus have that money for a more impactful player. Bell was a .4 WAR player (in his defense, he paced closer to a 2 WAR player per 600 PA with the Marlins post trade). DLC was a .2 WAR player and Cooper a .3 WAR player for perspective. I don't see how he recoups this money in FA where he can bet on himself and get a new deal post 2025 for whatever a 2 year deal would look like now. Belt got a 1/$9.3m deal from Toronto last year as a stick for hire. Bell also is on a good spot with a contender. I'll be shocked if he opts out. The lower depth of the FA class isn't just going to get him an overreach deal IMO.

Soler ended the year with the 13th highest xwOBA (qualified hitters). That's ahead of Goldschmidt, Alonso, and Tatis. He is a priority to retain IMO as they have no chance of replicating that offensive production in any manner. I strongly feel what you said of Bell happens with Soler - he opts out and they work out a 2 year deal (low $30s), and if they don't, he gets a qualifying offer ($19) and is "stuck" just like Joc Pederson last year. This will go a long ways to start improving the team from what they have under control. Remember, all of Segura, Yuli, and Cooper's PA are being replaced effectively by Burger and Bell (and a little Edwards) and that's going to be an enormous net gain. Big picture, they ended 27th in runs. But the two month split post Bell/Burger moved them to 22nd. Jazz was back too for most of that. That isn't something to do backflips over, but that's legitimate progress so keeping Soler in the picture should maintain that as a floor.

Which gets us to yes, they need some bats. I think it is a minimum of 1,500 vastly improved PA over 3 players (which can include Soler), with one being at least a 3-4+ WAR star. I do think Adames qualifies for that (four seasons over a 3 WAR and one of those over a 4, etc.) even if he has a lot of defensive value. He's great. Hopefully Milwaukee's playoff collapse and the rise of the Cubs/Reds makes them rethink their strategy as their contending window is effectively over IMO and they need to scorch earth as they aren't as good on paper as the Cardinals below those other two. I'll be interested in seeing what they do here, but 1 control year of Adames is not great for them.


But the big question just to say it out loud is what is happening with Sandy? If he's getting a TJ, it changes the entire offseason for them. So I'm going to pause thinking what their options may be until we have some clarity there. If he is fine, this is going to be as easy as retain Soler and do everything in your power to get Adames and Danny Jansen. Resign them both (as well as Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, and Jazz) and you have a strong as hell longterm core with those 6 + Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Burger, J. Sanchez, Meyer, various RP, and maybe some of the fleeting bats work out (Fortes, Edwards, Amaya, etc.). It's a sub $120m team easily. Pray for Sandy as needing 200 more quality innings on top of the desperate need for 1,500 improved PA which is going to cost a lot in trade or dollars is a lot to ask for absent a $140m payroll.

At no point have i said the marlins need to be frugal, i have said they need to be efficient with each dollar they spend and that the mid levels of free agency are the least efficient way to spend money. Kind of like how i told you didi gregorious for big money is an awful way to try to build a team in this market. Baseball is an inherently unpredictable sport from year to year, however the star level players are the one constant for the most part. The superstar level players are superstars for a reason, they can be counted on a yearly basis to provide their star level production. The mid tiers of free agency can't, and a team like us cant take that risk because that is how you end up with the Avisail Garcia's of the world that hamstring the team for years.

The one thing i have said about the marlins and signing those superstar players is that they need to be super careful to not give those stupid xander bogearts type 13 year deals that have them paying a ton of money to a player in their 40's or those 3-4 year deals where you are paying a mediocre player 12-20 million for years into the future like Avisail Garcia. Id much rather a higher AAV than a lower AAV and longer term contract, because that is how you end up with an albatross contract for a guy like stanton with limited production now.

Just look at some examples in recent years of the mid tier free agency level of guys getting between say 12-20 million. We have our own guys in Garcia who is a complete waste, and Soler who was awful last year. Some more examples in just the last 2 years alone- In the 2022 offseason here are some examples- Javy Baez stinks, Rizzo is past his prime and can be put in this group now and wasnt worth the money, Chris taylor is fine for the dodgers who have the money but isnt worth 15 million per year for a team like us, Desclafani fell off a cliff and got injured after getting paid, Matz got paid and isnt worth his contract, Eduardo Escobar got 20 million over 2 years for limited production, Eddie rosario got 9 million a year and isnt even producing a ton in that braves lineup, Nelson cruz got 15 million from the nationals and he was done.

And then you have last offseason- Taillon got 17 million and was awful this year, Conforto got 18 million to be mediocre, Haniger got 14.5 million and was bad, Bell got 16.5 million and was terrible for 3 months before he came here, benintendi got 75 million over 5 years and put up a sub .700 OPS, Syndergaard got 13 million and was a disaster, Tyler anderson got 13 million a year and was awful, Jose abreu got 19.5 million and was bad, Martin Perez got almost 20 million to be thoroughly mediocre, Rafael Montero got 11.5 million and was bad.

There are of course some of those guys who work out, but it is like the mid range jumper in the NBA. Sure it might go in sometimes, but it's not the most efficient way to play.

So no, i have never said be frugal, i said be efficient. Star level talent you pay for, you dont pay 15+ million for just ok players. The way we should be building is with cost controlled talent signed to extensions early, combined with finding some sort of star level player, with some 1 year deals for relievers sprinkled in. That is how this remains a playoff team and does so with a small payroll.

This offseason to me is about finding some sort of legitimate star level bat for the middle of the lineup, combined with finally spending some fucking money on 1-2 righty relievers for under 10 million that can be in the back end of the bullpen to pair with the home grown guys, and then trying to improve C and SS through low key free agent signings or trades. I like the guys in our lineup, but we are very clearly missing that 1 elite 3 hole hitter. The surrounding guys like Arraez, Burger, Jazz, Bell, Sanchez become that much more impactful with that piece there obviously.

[AdamRavs]

If this yr isn't a case for a robot strike zone i don't know what is. The fuck job all yr was sickening.

On the player note if i never see David Robertson again it will be too soon.

[fish16]

If this yr isn't a case for a robot strike zone i don't know what is. The fuck job all yr was sickening.

On the player note if i never see David Robertson again it will be too soon.

it was awful all year, and it's just beyond infuriating that they already agreed on umps again next year. It's 2 things to me- one is that the technology is clearly there to get every single call right, and it's absurd that they arent embracing it. People minimize it saying they get most calls right, but any individual call can make a big impact. 1-0 vs 0-1 is a big difference in a big spot. The second issue to me is that if they arent going to embrace the technology, there cant just be the same umps that everyone knows sucks continuing to get opportunities with no system in place for discipline in the case of awful performance. How Angel hernandez still has a job is beyond me. Same thing with laz diaz. Same thing with last night's game Doug Eddings. Just awful, and the job security they have while being awful is pathetic.

[Nick]

Sandy's health will be the key to next season. We desperately need him even if it's 2023 form not 2022 form.

Keep Soler and Bell if you can, add Adames or Joey Ortiz from Baltimore. Get somebody competent to replace Stallings, maybe even a couple of the better backups, Victor Caratini is a free agent, maybe pickup McCann in a Joey Ortiz deal?

James McCann
Joey Ortiz

for

Trevor Rogers
Noble Meyer

Bring in a legit starter in Free Agency. That's a good team I think, again, assuming Sandy is healthy.

[Nick]

Trade DLC for a reliever.

1. Arraez 2B
2. Edwards LF
3. Soler DH
4. Bell 1B
5. Jazz CF
6. Burger 3B
7. Sanchez RF
8. Ortiz SS
9. Caratini/McCann C

[lou]

At no point have i said the marlins need to be frugal, i have said they need to be efficient with each dollar they spend and that the mid levels of free agency are the least efficient way to spend money. Kind of like how i told you didi gregorious for big money is an awful way to try to build a team in this market. Baseball is an inherently unpredictable sport from year to year, however the star level players are the one constant for the most part. The superstar level players are superstars for a reason, they can be counted on a yearly basis to provide their star level production. The mid tiers of free agency can't, and a team like us cant take that risk because that is how you end up with the Avisail Garcia's of the world that hamstring the team for years.

The one thing i have said about the marlins and signing those superstar players is that they need to be super careful to not give those stupid xander bogearts type 13 year deals that have them paying a ton of money to a player in their 40's or those 3-4 year deals where you are paying a mediocre player 12-20 million for years into the future like Avisail Garcia. Id much rather a higher AAV than a lower AAV and longer term contract, because that is how you end up with an albatross contract for a guy like stanton with limited production now.

Just look at some examples in recent years of the mid tier free agency level of guys getting between say 12-20 million. We have our own guys in Garcia who is a complete waste, and Soler who was awful last year. Some more examples in just the last 2 years alone- In the 2022 offseason here are some examples- Javy Baez stinks, Rizzo is past his prime and can be put in this group now and wasnt worth the money, Chris taylor is fine for the dodgers who have the money but isnt worth 15 million per year for a team like us, Desclafani fell off a cliff and got injured after getting paid, Matz got paid and isnt worth his contract, Eduardo Escobar got 20 million over 2 years for limited production, Eddie rosario got 9 million a year and isnt even producing a ton in that braves lineup, Nelson cruz got 15 million from the nationals and he was done.

And then you have last offseason- Taillon got 17 million and was awful this year, Conforto got 18 million to be mediocre, Haniger got 14.5 million and was bad, Bell got 16.5 million and was terrible for 3 months before he came here, benintendi got 75 million over 5 years and put up a sub .700 OPS, Syndergaard got 13 million and was a disaster, Tyler anderson got 13 million a year and was awful, Jose abreu got 19.5 million and was bad, Martin Perez got almost 20 million to be thoroughly mediocre, Rafael Montero got 11.5 million and was bad.

There are of course some of those guys who work out, but it is like the mid range jumper in the NBA. Sure it might go in sometimes, but it's not the most efficient way to play.

So no, i have never said be frugal, i said be efficient. Star level talent you pay for, you dont pay 15+ million for just ok players. The way we should be building is with cost controlled talent signed to extensions early, combined with finding some sort of star level player, with some 1 year deals for relievers sprinkled in. That is how this remains a playoff team and does so with a small payroll.

This offseason to me is about finding some sort of legitimate star level bat for the middle of the lineup, combined with finally spending some fucking money on 1-2 righty relievers for under 10 million that can be in the back end of the bullpen to pair with the home grown guys, and then trying to improve C and SS through low key free agent signings or trades. I like the guys in our lineup, but we are very clearly missing that 1 elite 3 hole hitter. The surrounding guys like Arraez, Burger, Jazz, Bell, Sanchez become that much more impactful with that piece there obviously.

Fair enough. I have a solution for the bold.

Miami - Jansen, Yimi, C. Green, A. Barger
Toronto - Nardi (longterm awesome lefty, big get for them. He has more control years than Jansen, Yimi, and Green combined), DLC (CC DH for them), Soriano/Maldonado, Mack, and 1-2 FV40 prospects.

This sheds $17m off Toronto which is a HUGE incentive here for them to stay under luxury. They still have a full bullpen - Romano, Mayza, Swanson, Pearson, Cabrera, Nardi, we'll say Soriano (another tons of control guy), and they have a collection of old friends - Pop, Cimber, T. Richards - and some FV40 types after this. DLC is a perfect offensive park DH with some upside at a CC price. Mack is a good get for them here for the future.

Miami - W. Adames, Throw In(s)
Brewers - Rogers, Millbrandt/Miller, and Johnston

Sheds $10m+ off Milwaukee with Adames having 1 control year. They gotta move him and a healthy Rogers is going to be hard to beat from anyone in the league with 3 control years when they likely have to trade Burnes as they won't resign him. Burnes can get them a mega bat package from Baltimore (J. Ortiz to replace the SS, etc.) or something. Would be a quick rebuild for the Brewers right there as they'd also have some money to spend.


Marlins are sitting on this for around $110m in 2024

Jansen, Fortes
Arraez, Bell(DH)
Berti
Adames, Hampson
Burger
_____, Barger (can play 2B/3B and dabble at SS)
Jazz, Edwards (2B too)
Sanchez

AAA - Banfield, Amaya, Dane, Burdick, AA - Berry, Cappe, Mesa Jr.

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
Luzardo, Garrett, Weathers
Yimi, C. Green, Chargois, Brazoban
Scott, Puk, Okert

AAA - Max, Bender, Monteverde, Soriano, Maldonado, AA - Fulton


I think that is easily 42+ WAR, with the big question mark of is Sandy healthy and do they need a SP versus what kind of OF can they get (Pham, Duvall, Canha, or M. Taylor make a lot of sense here. I think this falls into efficient). Soler is sacrificed here but who cares because this is a really killer team...... if Sandy is healthy. The big big question mark that does need an answer first. Past that, I'm just doing this exercise to say it's probably not Soto/Trout (if even possible). Those guys are great, but this would be big impact moves for cheaper as Jansen, Adames, Barger, and those right handed relievers are likely a floor 7+ WAR and the guys they are replacing (effectively Stallings, half of Fortes time, Segura, Wendle, DLC, and replacement relievers) totaled a -2.5 WAR so this is close to a 10 win improvement. They of course would have to replace Soler but that is manageable with a beneficial Bell move to DH and Arraez 1B, improving 2B defense, and likely getting something out of LF.

Let's see what happens with Sandy, but Kim should take some leaps here and then extend the living hell out of Jansen, Arraez, Adames, Jazz, Eury, Luzardo, and Scott all in one epic same day press conference.

[lou]

Sandy's health will be the key to next season. We desperately need him even if it's 2023 form not 2022 form.

Keep Soler and Bell if you can, add Adames or Joey Ortiz from Baltimore. Get somebody competent to replace Stallings, maybe even a couple of the better backups, Victor Caratini is a free agent, maybe pickup McCann in a Joey Ortiz deal?

James McCann
Joey Ortiz

for

Trevor Rogers
Noble Meyer

Bring in a legit starter in Free Agency. That's a good team I think, again, assuming Sandy is healthy.

I'm in to the Joey Ortiz idea too. You can get Jansen and RHP relievers from Toronto, and then just keep Soler from what I did above. Noble may be too much here with Rogers, but we don't need to quib on the second player. Rogers is a perfect centerpiece and secondary guys would fall into place assuming Rogers is healthy.

I think they'll stick with Fortes + Banfield as the 2nd/3rd catchers though. Fortes is a solid guy vs lefties and overall I'd bet he's over a .600 OPS next year as floor.

[fish16]

i like danny jansen the player, and maybe im just jaded with john buck in the past, but it just feels like for whatever reason anyone who goes to toronto hits regardless of position, and im just worried he comes here and the low OBP and BA craters. He is good defensively so it would be a massive upgrade, i just think the bat might not be as good as what it has been in toronto, but again, that is still much improved from what we have seen. I also love mitch garver as a backup who can be a DH a lot and i think he plays a little 1b as well. If Soler goes, could be an interesting player who can fill mutliple positions like occasional start at 1b, DH, and backup C. Might even allow you to still carry fortes depending on how the roster shakes out. He can flat out mash, and i doubt he gets anywhere near as much as Soler in the open market, so that might be a cheaper replacement, and we can get a corner OF to replace Soler in the OF and then trade DLC for a righty reliever.

I'm not breaking any news here, but we just need some sort of massive C upgrade. It's close, but i'd view that as a bigger need than SS.

Trevor Rogers is the one to dangle in my opinion, and Thomas White. Id hang onto Noble for next year though as i think his value could get super high in a year or 2 and we can either replace a pitcher who we end up dealing in the future or he could be a bigger piece in a bigger deal as we move forward in the next few years.

I doubt rogers has a ton of value, but who knows. It's impossible to say. im ready to move on because it;s been bad and injured for the last 2.5 years essentially, but maybe sees some value there and we can acquire a bat without essentially touching any pieces of the team this year. Baltimore needs pitching and they have a plethora of hitting, plus we seem to have some experience dealing with their front office in the trades we've made for Scott, Villar, etc. Got to explore that.

[Nick]

I'm in to the Joey Ortiz idea too. You can get Jansen and RHP relievers from Toronto, and then just keep Soler from what I did above. Noble may be too much here with Rogers, but we don't need to quib on the second player. Rogers is a perfect centerpiece and secondary guys would fall into place assuming Rogers is healthy.

I think they'll stick with Fortes + Banfield as the 2nd/3rd catchers though. Fortes is a solid guy vs lefties and overall I'd bet he's over a .600 OPS next year as floor.

I'm not as confident as you on 1. Toronto dealing Jansen. 2. If Toronto deals Jansen, I feel like there will be a ton of suitors Miami will have to outbid, so getting 2 guys who can play defense competently and swing the bat confidently in the 9-hole may be enough, to maintain some kind of minor league system, and then bring back the players we need to bring back, and make the right acquisitions in Free Agency. I think a Free Agent starter is key, we need a guy who we know will give you 180+ quality innings. Sandy is that guy but we'll see what his status will be. Give you those guaranteed innings, and just see how guys like Eury and Meyer progress, keep their innings down so they're ready to rock in September.

[fish16]

im also excited to see what Max Meyer does for us next year. His role obviously depends a lot on sandy i think. I wish they would just send Sandy to TJ today honestly because it feels like thats where it is heading anyways and id rather he be ready for 2025 opening day as opposed to wasting some of that season as well, but knowing sandy he will likely try to exhaust every option to avoid that and rehab this offseason and you cant force him to get surgery.

If sandy somehow does avoid TJ, there might not be a rotation spot for him barring injury, so i think it would be awesome to bring him back slowly for a year as a back end multiple inning weapon and try to get 80-100 innings out of him, and then move him to the rotation full time in 2025. Id love a 2025 rotation of Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Garrett and Meyer with one of them being used in a trade or in a role out of the bullpen. That's pretty nasty and the goal should realistically be to lock guys up and build a super deep and talented lineup for that year to go along with that rotation.

[fish16]

I'm not as confident as you on 1. Toronto dealing Jansen. 2. If Toronto deals Jansen, I feel like there will be a ton of suitors Miami will have to outbid, so getting 2 guys who can play defense competently and swing the bat confidently in the 9-hole may be enough, to maintain some kind of minor league system, and then bring back the players we need to bring back, and make the right acquisitions in Free Agency. I think a Free Agent starter is key, we need a guy who we know will give you 180+ quality innings. Sandy is that guy but we'll see what his status will be. Give you those guaranteed innings, and just see how guys like Eury and Meyer progress, keep their innings down so they're ready to rock in September.

Agreed, but it needs to be one of the top guys if that is the route we go. We tried the innings eating Cueto, and that obviously didnt work out. With Sandy's TJ a very likely possibility, give us a guy who can not only eat innings, but do it at a good to great level. It allows us to theoretically remain competitive next year if Sandy is out, and then if sandy comes back in 2025, you have a super elite rotation, and one of the guys opens up a trade possibility to add to the lineup even more in 2025 depending on what holes we still have after next year, or you have a huge array of surplus arms to move to the bullpen to have an overall dominant pitching staff.

[Todd]

Or trade with St. Louis eho need pitching and get Ivan Herrera who is 23 with tons of upside but blocked.

[fish16]

Quite a few roster spots to fill, so it should be a very interesting offseason- the following are all but guaranteed to gone- Stallings, Yuli, Wendle, Cueto, Robertson. According to Spotrac, i didnt realize Hampson had a year of arbitration that we can use to keep him, so maybe that makes berti expendable as well depending on the other moves and what we can get for him. I could see Berti being attractive to Toronto as well. Maybe Rogers, Berti, and another piece makes sense for Jansen as a free agent after next year, plus a guy with 2 more years of control as a righty reliever in Eric Swanson.