2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

A win and a happy flight home with an off day tomorrow.

Plenty of time to make a trade before the Detroit series starts on Friday night…

at this point, they arent making a trade until the day of the deadline. Mlb teams are like the bad student in your class growing up. They dont start making progress until deadlines approach.

[lou]

Come on man. It's always the same with his baseball savant page. When he makes contact, he makes decently hard contact. Problem is, he doesnt make contact enough and he has horrific plate discipline. He is what he is. It's a good find, but this breakout just isnt happening. He is a guy who makes hard contact, rarely makes contact, is a truly horrific outfielder, and a terrible base runner. He has been the same way his entire career, even throughout the minor leagues. In over 1800 minor league at bats, he had a .743 OPS. In now 900+ major league at bats, he has a .747 OPS. He is what he is. He is never going to breakout. He is always going to have a bad K%%, bb%, chase rate, and whiff rate.

As i've said for months outside of the 1 post i bought into his hot streak, he is ideally a 4th OF. It;s what he has been his entire career. When a guy proves time and time again what he is, believe him.

Your opinion is duly noted but I think he is a lot more interesting then you think he is and yes, the underlying analytics matter. This is the profile of a guy the Rays trade for and then explodes because they figure out how to tweak his approach (see H. Ramirez or Y. Diaz or Siri, who should be a Marlin TBH as that was a good trade target and Lee was on top of that to his credit). He's frankly just a little bit of a launch angle away - which he was doing more of in 2022. I want to see what happens another few hundred plate appearances. Also, the trope that these guys never change is also tired. Teoscar's first 1194 PA he hit .237/.304/.476 (age 23-26). Since 2020, he's hit .273/.323/.494 in 1759 PA (age 27-30). DLC turns 27 in December. He doesn't have that power upside more than likely, but he might make it up with some average. DLC could easily turn into this .775-.825 range OPS guy, and that's a quality hitter and a step up to a solid regular from current. The defense is extremely disappointing though for a league average runner with a plus arm, hence, he's probably the primary DH next year unless things rapidly improve out there. Maybe Jazz being in CF again will help as he gets shaded some steps.

To note, this same analysis applies to Sanchez who has an expected slash of .280/.344/.505(!). He's under achieving by 50+ OPS points this year which is just awesome. That's an 89th percentile expected batting average. For Sanchez! https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

You don't give up on either of these guys any time soon IMO. DLC showed it last year, Sanchez this year. Maybe they each put this together to their 80th percent projection next year. The Marlins have an interesting group with Fortes (framing alone makes him useful), Arraez, Jazz, DLC, Sanchez, and maybe Myers, Edwards, and Amaya work out soon. They definitely can build off that longterm if they can figure out 3 big contributors to add to this rather immediately as obviously the pitching has already arrived. We can hope. Cue all the, Edman and Candelario are certainly two and resign them for years.

[fish16]

Fuck yes we traded Floro to the twins for Jorge Lopez. Both mediocre righties. Lopez was a high profile trade addition they made at the deadline who struggled mightily and has been mediocre like floro this year. Floro makes about 300k more so we save slightly. Lopez fits the majority of the rest of the pen, though even in his success last year he was outperforming his peripherals. Throws gas. Averages 97 MPH as opposed to Floro's 93. Im guessing they want to give Mel a chance to get back to what he was last year. Ceiling is higher than floro and at the very least he throws harder.

[Erick]

Fuck yes we traded Floro to the twins for Jorge Lopez. Both mediocre righties. Lopez was a high profile trade addition they made at the deadline who struggled mightily and has been mediocre like floro this year. Floro makes about 300k more so we save slightly. Lopez fits the majority of the rest of the pen, though even in his success last year he was outperforming his peripherals. Throws gas. Averages 97 MPH as opposed to Floro's 93. Im guessing they want to give Mel a chance to get back to what he was last year. Ceiling is higher than floro and at the very least he throws harder.

Lopez throws harder is the only thing that makes this somewhat cool I guess because he’s really sucked this year.

[fish16]

Lopez throws harder is the only thing that makes this somewhat cool I guess because he’s really sucked this year.

Floro has been horrific for months as well. It's a bet that mel can figure something out with lopez. Plus lopez is under control for next year whereas floro is a FA. I was hoping they just dumped Floro's salary so getting a potential bullpen arm works for me. If they figure something out they got a good cheap bullpen arm for next year. IF not they can non-tender him. Really just a change of scenery hope for both teams. Pretty bad for the twins though, they gave up a good package for him a year ago only to trade him for 2 months of a struggling Floro

[fish16]

Eury is starting in aa tonight. So ridiculous. Better just be a two inning tuneup to come in next turn in the rotation.

[fish16]

Mish says they are buyers and expects them to add another righty reliever at some point. Was obvious, but good to see they realize how bad the righty relievers are

[Nick]

I’m fine with the move, but it doesn’t move the needle at all IMO.

[lou]

Eury is starting in aa tonight. So ridiculous. Better just be a two inning tuneup to come in next turn in the rotation.

I agree with the volume. Don’t throw him a ton as a tune up. Just get him in and out. Maybe it’s even 35 pitches and scale to 50 next one at MLB level, etc.

This puts him on extra day rest for Aug 1st. Maybe the idea is every 6th game on 5+ rest here on out which is what this does. Something like that makes sense over 4 inning appearances.

[fish16]

I agree with the volume. Don’t throw him a ton as a tune up. Just get him in and out. Maybe it’s even 35 pitches and scale to 50 next one at MLB level, etc.

This puts him on extra day rest for Aug 1st. Maybe the idea is every 6th game on 5+ rest here on out which is what this does. Something like that makes sense over 4 inning appearances.

They aren’t putting him back in the rotation to pitch 4 innings. One of the reasons they sent him down in the first place was because they said they didn’t want to hamstring the bullpen if they limited him to exactly 5 innings every turn, let alone 4. It remains idiotic that they shut him down with no signs of fatigue. There are two months left in the season and they are tied for a wild card. It remains malpractice to do what they are doing for money reasons years from now

[fish16]

Lou’s boy Amed Rosario who he wanted to acquire in the offseason, who can’t hit by the way, traded to the dodgers. They were rumored for Tim Anderson so maybe that’s still an option. He’s been better of late

[lou]

I’m fine with the move, but it doesn’t move the needle at all IMO.

Not at all. It’s probably backwards but so insignificant it’s whatever. I agree it’s a bet he recovers and they have a $4m reliever next year in a contract year. I will agree with every pitching move they make like this as they’ve earned trust there. They will hit on a few of these like they’ve shown. Floro had 3.1 WAR here in just under 170 innings. That is frankly excellent. Good for him Vesia has 2 WAR in 116 IP BTW.

[lou]

Lou’s boy Amed Rosario who he wanted to acquire in the offseason, who can’t hit by the way, traded to the dodgers. They were rumored for Tim Anderson so maybe that’s still an option. He’s been better of late

He’s been banged up and has been good offensively since late May. He’s also hitting lefties very well. The Guardians and Dodgers are also better organizations than the Marlins. My prediction is you’ll think he’s a good buy low in December and say he’s perfect for the Marlins with a low K rate, a solid hard hit rate, historical harder hit rates, coming off a bad year, in his prime, and they are so smart. That being said, his defense is really cratering at SS so I have no idea where you can play him. Maybe he can handle 2B. Maybe he’s just been hurt. He’s worse then DLC defensively so not sure what happened there. That will have to be figured out to see if he’s a target

[fish16]

He’s been banged up and has been good offensively since late May. He’s also hitting lefties very well. The Guardians and Dodgers are also better organizations than the Marlins. My prediction is you’ll think he’s a good buy low in December and say he’s perfect for the Marlins with a low K rate, a solid hard hit rate, historical harder hit rates, coming off a bad year, in his prime, and they are so smart. That being said, his defense is really cratering at SS so I have no idea where you can play him. Maybe he can handle 2B. Maybe he’s just been hurt. He’s worse then DLC defensively so not sure what happened there. That will have to be figured out to see if he’s a target

Nope, I’ll tell you the same thing I told you months ago when you wanted to trade for him and give him 20 million a year- he’s a thoroughly mediocre hitter and not worthy of a ton of money. You were advocating trading Pablo for him at one point and gave me shit about saying Arraez is the perfect fit here and his bat would play regardless of position. He is and always has been a thoroughly mediocre hitter. He also doesn’t walk at all

hes also played 94/101 games, so he’s been healthy enough to play everyday

[sports24/7]

I’m fine with Floro for Lopez. Lopez has had a better high, so if you’re making a change of scenery trade, I’m happy with getting the guy who has the potential to be the better of the two. I wouldn’t necessarily expect this to improve the pen, but Floro has been almost unpitchable latest, so it’s not like this can make things worse.