2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

Arraez put on a show in the all- star game.

[Erick]

We have 15 games left before the trade deadline. Hopefully go 8-7 at least.

[lou]

What would we have to send to Anaheim for 2.5 months of Ohtani?

We win the World Series and then he resigns with Anaheim in 2024 for $575 million, right?

Ohtani never makes the playoffs again and he wears a Marlins cap during his HOF induction.

Too much.


If we want to go insane, maybe they would do something like Snell, Hader, and H. Kim though for Eder, Cappe, Amaya, Mesa Jr., and Project Arm though. It would both be offensive to get better and defensive to prevent the Braves or someone from getting Hader. Snell and Hader are rentals and Kim is signed next year only where they have Boegarts and Cronenworth who can play up the middle. This helps them clear some bucks to do their own Ohtani pitch or resign Soto. Two top 100 guys or close guys and some high probable defensive role players is pretty hard to beat there. This adds like $17m for 2023.

Then Scott and Floro can be moved to the Orioles for prospects to recoup something better than Amaya, Mesa Jr., and the project arm (so we've really only traded Eder and Cappe at this point). It also deflects salary as Scott/Floro are making $6.5m on the season so call it $3m saved here. So added $14m.

Then can move something like Fulton, J. Miller, Peguero/Gerardo/Sanoja/etc., Sixto, a project arm and...... Avisail and $5m bucks for his 2026 buyout for Candelario, H. Harvey, and Corbin. This saves Nationals closer to $10m in a bad contract salary dump and recoups a pretty aggressive package for a rental (albeit the best rental), reliever, and low-end # 5 SP innings. This only adds like $9m for 2023, so overall added roughly $23m for the contending stretch. The 2024 situation would be another +$33m because Corbin/Kim/Harvey (arbitration) make a lot more than Garcia, and then in 2025 payroll goes down $12m as you effectively shifted Garcia forward.

So overall net change in money here is you added roughly $42m over 2.5 seasons. That's not terrible over 2.5 years. Recall, I think they have $30m to spend next year so this isn't that large of a contending push change here and some can bleed into the 2025 budget. Plus playoff revenue.

All of a sudden, the full strength team is this. You could even ditch Corbin for free if someone will absorb even $2-3m and leave one of the other relievers up as obviously Nardi is a real odd man out here.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Arraez, Segura
Kim, Wendle
Candelario, Berti
DLC
Jazz
Sanchez, Soler
(Myers and Edwards injury replacements)

Sandy, Snell, Eury, Cabrera
Luzardo, Garret, Rogers, Corbin
Harvey, Chargois
Hader, Puk, Okert
(Nardi, Brazoban, Hoeing injury replacements)

I think that team would be really scary team in the playoffs with effectively a Sandy, Snell, and Luzardo rotation, and starter 4 is a 1 time through Garrett and Cabrera situation. Early hooks and you get Eury and Rogers thrown at you in short blasts, with Hader, Harvey, and Puk a devastating 7-8-9. Elite infield defense once Wendle or Berti gets to 2B and Arraez shifted to 1B late innings. Candelario smashes RHP, Kim hits lefties. It would work.


Then imagine Kim (4+) and Candelario (2) extensions, Myers, Edwards, Orioles guy for Scott/Floro, Bender/Max Meyer/Maldonado/Monterverde, and Nardi effectively replace Cooper, Wendle, Soler, Snell, and Hader all gone as FA. And you're looking at needing a catcher if Stallings isn't kept or Fortes sent back to AAA. They'd have 25 spots internal on paper, with Berry, Watson, Burdick, Groshans, Banfield, Mack, McIntosh, and a multitude of RP all in AA or higher. With enormous MLB control years, which they can extend further with Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz, and Eury internal extensions, and could consider others in another year (Cabrera health/breakout, etc.). All of this is a reasonable bottom 10-12 payroll structure.


Dreaming of them acting like a franchise is frustrating because they could probably do something similar to this with what they have to move, it wouldn't be that expensive, get some longterm bat pieces, do reasonable extensions, and still have plenty of longterm pitching because you just drafted the best two prep arms in the draft. "Plant the flag."

[lou]

We have 15 games left before the trade deadline. Hopefully go 8-7 at least.

Sure, but August is really really brutal. Winning as much as possible before August is really important. They could play well in August and go 11-17 just because they are playing all contenders. Only 5 games against the Nationals and everything else is a West coast trip or Tampa or Texas or Houston. September doesn't get much better unless the Brewers and Mets go in downward spiral.

Kim better be making the calls this time.

[Lee Stone]

Sure, but August is really really brutal. Winning as much as possible before August is really important. They could play well in August and go 11-17 just because they are playing all contenders. Only 5 games against the Nationals and everything else is a West coast trip or Tampa or Texas or Houston. September doesn't get much better unless the Brewers and Mets go in downward spiral.

Kim better be making the calls this time.

Like she did in signing Segura, Gurriel and Cueto? That was about $15 million this season.

[Nick]

Like she did in signing Segura, Gurriel and Cueto? That was about $15 million this season.

It's not a complete excuse, but having less money to spend obviously thins the pool of players available to you in a Free Agency class, making these misses we've had in free agency more likely. Just recently people were shocked that Soler was the first Marlins Free Agent signing in 20 years or something to make an all-star team. Teams with less money are going to be bad at signing free agents in all likelihood.

Also time changes outlooks. Soler looked like a terrible signing after one year, after a year and a half it looks like a great signing. Gurriel was a good signing even if he doesn't make the entire year with the team. He's earned his $1.25 million already.

[rmc523]

It's not a complete excuse, but having less money to spend obviously thins the pool of players available to you in a Free Agency class, making these misses we've had in free agency more likely. Just recently people were shocked that Soler was the first Marlins Free Agent signing in 20 years or something to make an all-star team. Teams with less money are going to be bad at signing free agents in all likelihood.

Also time changes outlooks. Soler looked like a terrible signing after one year, after a year and a half it looks like a great signing. Gurriel was a good signing even if he doesn't make the entire year with the team. He's earned his $1.25 million already.

Also, much like Garcia, nobody could've predicted Segura being THIS bad. He's done better of late.

[Lee Stone]

[QUOTE=Nick;n585912]

It's not a complete excuse, but having less money to spend obviously thins the pool of players available to you in a Free Agency class, making these misses we've had in free agency more likely. Just recently people were shocked that Soler was the first Marlins Free Agent signing in 20 years or something to make an all-star team. Teams with less money are going to be bad at signing free agents in all likelihood.

Also time changes outlooks. Soler looked like a terrible signing after one year, after a year and a half it looks like a great signing. Gurriel was a good signing even if he doesn't make the entire year with the team. He's earned his $1.25 million already.[/QUOTE

Here's a list of 2020 free agent signings (batters). At least 90% were awful. Free agency is not the way to build a team.

[Erick]

Sure, but August is really really brutal. Winning as much as possible before August is really important. They could play well in August and go 11-17 just because they are playing all contenders. Only 5 games against the Nationals and everything else is a West coast trip or Tampa or Texas or Houston. September doesn't get much better unless the Brewers and Mets go in downward spiral.

Kim better be making the calls this time.

It’s quite possible that we…have a good team too?

We have the 2nd best record in the National League, not exactly a team incapable of beating a good team.

I’d be fine with .500 baseball the rest of the season, that gets us to 88 wins. A little over .500 for 90 wins would be cool too. I think it can be done.

Also, I like your ideas except the one where we trade Tanner Scott for a prospect. Can’t believe I’m saying this after watching him used to feel like torture, but he’s been our best reliever this season, not a spare part. He’s finally throwing strikes, and a big reason why we’re 14 over .500 in the 1st half.

[Lee Stone]

It’s quite possible that we…have a good team too?

We have the 2nd best record in the National League, not exactly a team incapable of beating a good team.

I’d be fine with .500 baseball the rest of the season, that gets us to 88 wins. A little over .500 for 90 wins would be cool too. I think it can be done.

Also, I like your ideas except the one where we trade Tanner Scott for a prospect. Can’t believe I’m saying this after watching him used to feel like torture, but he’s been our best reliever this season, not a spare part. He’s finally throwing strikes, and a big reason why we’re 14 over .500 in the 1st half.

Somethin's crooked though. Marlins are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and right around the middle of the pack in ERA. It doesn't add up or bode well.

[Nick]

We are a good team, we're a good team that will be outside the playoffs if we don't make a significant improvement via trades though.

[rmc523]

It’s quite possible that we…have a good team too?

We have the 2nd best record in the National League, not exactly a team incapable of beating a good team.

I’d be fine with .500 baseball the rest of the season, that gets us to 88 wins. A little over .500 for 90 wins would be cool too. I think it can be done.

Also, I like your ideas except the one where we trade Tanner Scott for a prospect. Can’t believe I’m saying this after watching him used to feel like torture, but he’s been our best reliever this season, not a spare part. He’s finally throwing strikes, and a big reason why we’re 14 over .500 in the 1st half.

You're right, though as Marlins fans, I feel like we're conditioned to a collapse/bad play and to assume the worst, unfortunately.

[lou]

It’s quite possible that we…have a good team too?

We have the 2nd best record in the National League, not exactly a team incapable of beating a good team.

I’d be fine with .500 baseball the rest of the season, that gets us to 88 wins. A little over .500 for 90 wins would be cool too. I think it can be done.

Also, I like your ideas except the one where we trade Tanner Scott for a prospect. Can’t believe I’m saying this after watching him used to feel like torture, but he’s been our best reliever this season, not a spare part. He’s finally throwing strikes, and a big reason why we’re 14 over .500 in the 1st half.

I don't think they play .500 ball here on out without some big additions. Which they have the juice to do.

I agree with Nick and Lee here. This team doesn't add up and needs help. It's embarrassing it hasn't happened yet, but at the same time, I don't think it really cost them (thanks Jordan Hicks and others!) so their inaction hasn't cost them yet.

[Erick]

Somethin's crooked though. Marlins are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and right around the middle of the pack in ERA. It doesn't add up or bode well.

What happened mainly is that we suck against the Braves.

[lou]

Somethin's crooked though. Marlins are in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and right around the middle of the pack in ERA. It doesn't add up or bode well.

While contrived, Marlins 4th in pitcher WAR. The pitching is excellent.

There are some real ERA bombs with Cueto, Castano, Nolin, Bradley, Smeltzer, C. Gonzalez, Quezada, and Stallings(!) throwing 35+ innings with I kid you not, 42 ER. This staff when healthy is awesome. And Sandy isn't Sandy yet, Cabrera is only at 67 innings, no Rogers, and they probably need to trade for a SP I might add so any performance drops might get leveled out fast.

Hitters 19th in WAR and below average. No real hope unless Myers is an epic late bloomer, Edwards is something in between Arraez and Berti offensively, and one of DLC/Sanchez really have that .850 OPS second half we can dream of. They need 2 bats.

Two bats and a starter to manage innings. Bullpen adds are a luxury.