2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

we really need a righty set up guy. Nardi, Okert, Puk and scott are great as lefties, but all we have for righties is Floro, Brazoban, Barnes when he comes back, and Chargois.

[fish16]

what is the lowest K rate in league history for a full time starter? Because Arraez is at 5 which has to be close. next closest guy this year is at 7.6%

[lou]

You tear it down to make it happen.

Eder
Meyer
X. Edwards
Monteverde
Cappe
Vargas

Yes. They have the goods to get nearly anyone in baseball who becomes available. So long as they get sufficient control years of presumably an infielder for a few years and someone else for some years, that entire list above doesn't matter to the Marlins with what their MLB control currently is. Goldschmidt is going to be worth a good top 100 pitcher + a decent throw in. It would only be a question if they like Mitch Abel more than Eder or Meyer, and if they do, would the Marlins juice that with a better second player to make the deal more attractive.

I'd tweak your idea above to get Edman and blow it all. Three top 100 guys for 1.5 years of Goldschmidt and 2.5 years of Edman (who they could extend for another 1-2 years to avoid arbitration and grab another year or two. He'd do it), with maybe a fleeting backup C? Goldschmidt could also likely be given a qualifying offer and he'd presumably decline and recoup a pick down the road to mention. Would be a no brainer for everyone with their IF depth (Donovan, Gorman, DeJong, Winn, and of course Arenado) and lack of MLB ready SP. That would radically set them up to spend in FA on another SP/platoon bats and be good quickly adding Contreras, Walker, Nootbar, and Carlson to that very solid lineup. Marlins would open an enormous contending window themselves.

Something like

Meyer
Eder
Cappe
Mesa Jr
Monteverde
R. Hernandez

Goldschmidt, Edman, and Knizner (Gallegos is going to be very expensive. Eury will become a RP in September more than likely remember)


2023 - All sorts of YES going on here

Fortes, Knizner
Goldyschmidt, Cooper
Arraez, Segura
Edman (Amaya)
Wendle, Berti
DLC, Soler (Groshans)
Jazz (Edwards)
Sanchez (Burdick)
(Edman and Berti can play in the OF*)

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett
Floro, Chargois, Hoeing/Cueto/Brazoban
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi


2024 --- > Cheap FA to fill blank lines, deal with things at deadline as you're going to be really good

Fortes, Knizner (Banfield)
Goldschmidt
Arraez
Edman, Amaya (Nunez)
Berti, Segura (Groshans)
DLC (ideally the DH and a strange SS/3B/LF platoon)
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez, ______/Burdick/Lefty Killer

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett
Chargois, Bender, Hoeing, _____/Brazoban (Maldonado, Pushard, Reynolds)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi
(Scott/Okert and Floro traded for a young right hander or a lefty killer here)

2025 --- > Draft college 2B/SS/3B in 2023 1st round and hope for the best there, everything else should be internal and will likely need to sign/trade for a big bat.

Fortes, Knizner (Banfield/Mack)
Arraez, Berry
K. Watson
Edman, Amaya (Nunez)
________
DLC
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez, ______/Burdick

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury
Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Fulton
Bender, Hoeing, Maldonado, _____/Reynolds (Pushard, Miller, Millbrandt, others)
Puk, Nardi



Those guys they are moving in this hypothetical don't matter. We're talking bench guys in 2024, and they'll have to develop a few contributors offensively by 2025, but they have some interesting prospects and can always trade pitching as they still have a lot of pitching here. Plus free agency which they could hit hard if they are smart and do extensions for Arraez, Edman, Jazz, Luzardo, and Eury here, and maybe Cabrera or Puk would earn one after 2024.



So TLDR - you're right, they can blow it out, and it'll be an improvement and not hurt the longterm based on their control years. Let's stop hoarding everyone and do a large trade whether it be L. Robert, Goldschmidt/Edman, McMahon/Grichuk/Diaz, Westburg/Kjerstad, Peraza, Candelario/Harvey/L. Thomas threesome, whatever. Tons of control all over here so they can handle it. It's time to win and not be complacent.

[lou]

Analysis on Sandy - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-ea...ndy-alcantara/

TLDR - He's still very good, missing some corners this year primarily versus last year, and is much closer to his career line (3.32 ERA/mid 3) versus 2022 moving forward.


I agree with this, but would have noted there are some strange on-base/LOB numbers going on which aren't helping. I'll take 2020/2021 Sandy all day and be happy with a top 15 versus top 6 SP. All good here.

[fish16]

Analysis on Sandy - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-ea...ndy-alcantara/

TLDR - He's still very good, missing some corners this year primarily versus last year, and is much closer to his career line (3.32 ERA/mid 3) versus 2022 moving forward.


I agree with this, but would have noted there are some strange on-base/LOB numbers going on which aren't helping. I'll take 2020/2021 Sandy all day and be happy with a top 15 versus top 6 SP. All good here.

been saying this for over a month now. There is something mechanically with him in the stretch. He said he fixed something after the big inning 2 outings ago and has been great in the limited sample since so maybe he fixed something. but there is clearly something going on with guys on base and him pitching from the stretch. Everything else is the same as last year. His numbers with no one on are even better than last year. It's a matter of time before he figures it out if he hasnt already. He's still on pace to pitch 205+ innings because even when he has given up 5 runs its usually all in 1 inning so he figures it out and gets through 7. Im not worried about him at all. Honestly encouraged that we are 13 games over .500 with him being mediocre and jazz barely playing.

[lou]

Just want to throw out there Candelario, L. Thomas (supreme lefty killer, .900+ career), and H. Harvey (RHP bullpen) have a ludicrous surplus value, $50-60m easily, because they make no money and have 5.5 combined controlled years. That's what happens over 5.5 years of service time for solid players making low low money. Nickel and dimeing a package from the Nationals for any of them would cost major players, and collectively it would easily be something like Meyer/Eder, Cappe/Watson, Fulton/Monteverde, Mesa Jr./Edwards, Reynolds/Pushard/Maldonado, and OutsideTop30 six player package quickly. Those 3 from the Nationals are worth MORE than Goldschmidt/Edman/Knizner (6 years of control) and McMahon/Grichuk/Diaz (6.5 years of control), because the Cards/Rocks have heavy contracts that deflect against their overall value.

And if you think that is insane, we need to ignore the name value and realize the Nationals guys are significantly cheaper players and this is what is happening this year. Lane Thomas has a high BABIP and Edman is struggling a little, but everyone else is pretty fair here so the Nationals probably tick down a little and Cards tick up a little. The Rockies guys are good, but clearly behind these other guys.

2023 WAR
Candelario/Harvey/Thomas 4.8 WAR
Goldschmidt/Edman/Knizner 3.8 WAR
McMahon/Grichuk/Diaz 2.8 WAR

Getting better costs A LOT and the Marlins need 3-4 players similar to these names and performance so it is going to cost them. Or they do nothing and eventually teeter off.


That being said, I would trade for the Nationals three quickly even at these prices and try and do it with say..... Meyer/Eder, Fulton/Monteverde, Comp Balance Pick (preserve Watson/Cappe/Berry basically as non-starters), Mesa Jr., and two throw in reliever projection arms, FV40 types and good ones. Miller/Fitterer and Pushard. No problem. Resign Candelario for 2 years similar to Drury/J. Bell type deal, maybe even 3 to a Soler type deal, and be very happy with what was just accomplished. Sucks to send the arms to the Nationals, but getting a legitimate defensive 3B who smokes right handers who is 30, a total OF lefty killer even if defensively similar to DLC (someone has to DH next year between those two), and a good right hander to balance out the pen, would be something. They could event trade Scott/Okert on top of this to recoup prospects immediately (to then trade for a catcher) and run out:

Fortes, _____/Stallings
Cooper
Arraez, Segura
Wendle, Berti
Candelario
DLC, L. Thomas
Jazz
Sanchez, Soler

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Harvey, Floro, Chargois, Cueto (Hoeing, Brazoban)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi

This team is great and the only only guys leaving for 2024 assuming a Candelario extension is Cooper, Soler, Wendle, Floro (for money), and Cueto....... and they still have Meyer/Eder, Edwards, Amaya, and Hoeing/Bender/Maldonado/Brazoban to just immediately replace them, meaning a platoon/DH bat and backup catcher rounds out the team quickly.


Fortes, _____ (ideally acquired via moving Scott/Okert in 2024)
Arraez
Segura, ______ (preferably another guy who can play SS as they can shuffle Berti, Amaya, Nunez, maybe Arraez and Groshans around)
Berti, Amaya (Nunez)
Candelario
DLC, L. Thomas
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Meyer (we'll say they take Eder)
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Harvey, Chargois, Hoeing, Bender (Maldonado and other FV40 types are around)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi (Monteverde, we'll say they take Fulton)


Just awesome. Are we missing Eder, Fulton, Comp Pick, Mesa Jr., and two reliever prospects? Because this is what it is going to take even going the "cheap" route.

[rmc523]

looks like you're right. they got to 87-74 with 3 straight wins after they were eliminated and then lost the last game to finish 87-75. Still have no recollection of the record even being that good. Looking at the stats on that team, not sure how they got to that mark anyways. the starting pitching was awful outside of JJ. A lot of Sean West, Ricky Nolasco, and Chris Volstad being terrible

Yeah, I don't remember that either - I remember them being in the race that year and we were excited about being in contention, but don't remember being that good.

[Lee Stone]

Trades down seem like an option at all. Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez and Hoeing are all needed in Miami. Cabrera and Rogers currently have minimal value due to health issues. Eder and Meyer are still basically on the shelf - no value. Watson and Cappe are impressing nobody. Somebody let the air out of Monteverde's tires. The only exciting prospects right now appear to be Vargas, and he's just 18, and Dane Myers. Myers belongs at 3b in the Marlins lineup, Things could be much worse if not for the surprising bullpen, notably the four lefties. There's no trade action out there.

[fish16]

if the nationals are actually willing to trade lane thomas as well i would be all over a thomas/candelario package. That would be the perfect combo for what the lineup needs. Then go and find some sort of backup C to improve on stallings and a righty reliever and go get a playoff spot.

Hunter harvey is fine if better options are too expensive are not available too. Wouldnt cost much more. I wouldnt deal Meyer in that but they can have Eder/Fulton/Mesa/Watson/Cappe/whatever they want.

Lane thomas would, at the very least, be an amazing platoon partner for sanchez. he can be a starter by himself too and has team control for 2 more years after this year as well if you just want to swap thomas for sanchez and then move sanchez in another deal.

Could role out a lineup of:

Arraez
Soler
Jazz
Candelario
DLC
Cooper
Thomas
Wendle
Fortes

Bench- Berti, Gurriel, Backup C, Sanchez?, Edwards?

Obviously that's not adding an enormous piece, but that lineup depth is so much better with a really quality bench with different traits too (power, contact, plate discipline, speed, defense, versatility)

[fish16]

Trades down seem like an option at all. Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez and Hoeing are all needed in Miami. Cabrera and Rogers currently have minimal value due to health issues. Eder and Meyer are still basically on the shelf - no value. Watson and Cappe are impressing nobody. Somebody let the air out of Monteverde's tires. The only exciting prospects right now appear to be Vargas, and he's just 18, and Dane Myers. Myers belongs at 3b in the Marlins lineup, Things could be much worse if not for the surprising bullpen, notably the four lefties. There's no trade action out there.

that's not remotely true. they have plenty of prospects to get whatever deal done. The question is who the guy or guys are. Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Cappe, Vargas, Watson, Berry, Edwards, Miller, Amaya, Victor Mesa Jr, Nunez, Reynolds, Monteverde etc all have some modicum of value. They can very easily combine a bunch to get some upgrades. The question is who that upgrade is

[fish16]

if the reds fall off a little bit id also obviously love alexis diaz as the ideal bullpen addition. they would have to really go into a free fall to deal him though. David bednar might be more realistic if we are willing to part with one of the SP's for him. Id probably do that too for anyone but Meyer considering bednar would just be hitting arbitration for the first time this offseason. Realistically though we go with a lower profile bullpen addition

[fish16]

I think next weekend has a chance to be some of the biggest non opening day crowds at marlins park since the first year of the ballpark. I see a ton of people saying they are going out next weekend, cardinals fans always show out well down here, and this team is starting to get serious attention down here. I think we can see close to 30k next Saturday which would be amazing

[lou]

Trades down seem like an option at all. Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Perez and Hoeing are all needed in Miami. Cabrera and Rogers currently have minimal value due to health issues. Eder and Meyer are still basically on the shelf - no value. Watson and Cappe are impressing nobody. Somebody let the air out of Monteverde's tires. The only exciting prospects right now appear to be Vargas, and he's just 18, and Dane Myers. Myers belongs at 3b in the Marlins lineup, Things could be much worse if not for the surprising bullpen, notably the four lefties. There's no trade action out there.

I'm not with you here at all. The Marlins are going to have the busiest phones if they fall out with everyone wanting this pitching (and the useful assortment of platoon bats they could move if they implode), and inversely, everyone is going to want to "buy low" on Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Cappe, Berry, and Watson. The Marlins are in great shape to make a move in all directions.

They however, need to decide to cash in the chips. There is no action because only 3-4 teams are out of it right now and it is June. Prices are sky high and may start to flinch after the ASB a little.

Hence, the Rockies and I suppose the Nationals are the best ideas. They are already toast. Get them the deal and they'll move guys. Cardinals may throw it in in 2-3 more weeks. Or, do the contending moves (Luzardo - Westburg and friends) and then follow that with adding a Greinke, etc. As the Royals are also toast and Baltimore isn't complaining on something immense like that, etc.

[Nick]

If Sal Perez is not available. Greinke/Barlow might be a relatively cheap get. Bruce would have to put down some dough, but it'd save the minor league system for the big bat acquisition.

[Nick]

if the reds fall off a little bit id also obviously love alexis diaz as the ideal bullpen addition. they would have to really go into a free fall to deal him though. David bednar might be more realistic if we are willing to part with one of the SP's for him. Id probably do that too for anyone but Meyer considering bednar would just be hitting arbitration for the first time this offseason. Realistically though we go with a lower profile bullpen addition

Bednar/Puk would be an unstoppable combo.