2023 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Some people are truly just beyond comprehension and don't realize players who are 2+ WAR per 600 PA for their entire career (ages 22-28), with a 2.8+ WAR pace their last 2.5 seasons as they have spiked as they enter their prime ages 26-28, which is all adjusted for park factors with mega-defensive and splits proof floors with hard hit rates so any mention of Coors is irrelevant, and paid less then market-rate for solid starters, as such individuals like Josh Bell, Martin Perez, and Joc Pederson make $16-20m per year in free agency now, are not bad ideas. Especially when help is needed mid-season and options are limited with few teams out of it, especially further regarding the catcher market which has been discussed ad-nauseam where no one really good is available as teams like the 3.5 back larger market Cubs with the best run differential in their division are buyers not sellers (Gomes is not an option) and mid .600 OPS catchers are solid options in a depressed offensive environment league. Let's keep throwing out Yuli with a low .600 OPS analytical performance at 1B and no defensive chops, as well as Segura who has a .515 OPS (who also analytically is a mid .600 OPS guy which is a platoon option versus LHP at best) and see if one can win with thoughts, Stallings, Davis, Garcia, Hampson, and prayers against the Phillies who are already being rumored for Goldschmidt and friends as they have the juice (Painter and M. Abel are higher ranked P prospect than Eder or Meyer) to get it done. Let's ignore the August schedule and not try and run up the score right now in June. Let's not do anything prior to Steve giving Ohtani $550m which is coming. Let's get into bidding wars over rentals like Candelario literally everyone will want and have to overpay to win that bid for 2+ months of control versus trading assets you can live without for years of control of a rock solid ascending infielder that aligns with your contending window, plus one-stop shopping so you're not overpaying on multiple deals as there is an economy of scale position here in an environment 20 teams may be contenders. Let's keep not contending for literally 20 years and be more concerned about hypothetical performers who might be good in 2025/26 who we would love to be 2-2.8 WAR paced players at the end of the day as that's a 90th percentile best case scenario if not higher. It is time to plant flags and go for it and two FV50, one FV45+, and a few FV40 guys (as player's value not system rank is the evaluation) do not matter for 6.5 years of player control at unarguable below market prices based on last year's free agency when combined with the enormous club control of the team's starting rotation and top 6 position players have. One must give value to get value which is a hoarding concept the Marlins (and some others) haven't figured out yet. If the Rockies accept their team does in fact suck this much (which it does as compared to their division) and they need to reboot, we could only be so lucky. The juice is Werth the squeeze. It's time to win and today, not July 31st.

Paragraphs are your friend lol.

[fish16]

also, from the marlins perspective, market rate for average to good free agents is a terrible idea. Martin perez is a fairly mediocre pitcher, would you like to pay him 20 million a year for his career 4.48 XFIP? What about 16.5 million for Josh bell's .693 OPS at mostly DH? Or how about a strictly platoon bat like Joc Pederson for 20 million? There is a reason 2 of those guys went to 2 of the higher payroll teams in baseball. those would be terrible value for the marlins. Those are the definition of bad ideas for the marlins.

[Namaste]

Braxton and his shiny 3.64 ERA vs a Red Sox scrub and the Red Sox are just a slim underdog (+106). Uh oh.

[Namaste]

[QUOTE=fish16;n585254]

No one is arguing Mcmahon is a bad player.QUOTE]

But your exact words were “he’s never been a good hitter”.

That’s probably poor choice of words on your part, no?

[fish16]

Braxton and his shiny 3.64 ERA vs a Red Sox scrub and the Red Sox are just a slim underdog (+106). Uh oh.

a lot of vegas is making lines that they can get even money on each side for. Red Sox at home against the marlins without looking into the actual matchups is probably playing a slight factor into that line. Red sox also are surprisingly really good against lefties for a team with a bunch of their best players like Devers and Verdugo hitting from the left side. 7th in the league in OPS against lefties with a .774. Also just general disrespect for the marlins.

[fish16]

[QUOTE=Namaste;n585258]

No one is arguing Mcmahon is a bad player.QUOTE]

But your exact words were “he’s never been a good hitter”.

That’s probably poor choice of words on your part, no?

not really, not everything is absolute. He hasnt been an above average hitter in his career prior to this year. And that's overall. At coors, his BA is .271 and his splits are .346/.497/.843. Outside of coors in his career he hits .221 with splits of .307/.367/.674. He hits for very little power outside of coors, and his K rate is very high just in general.

One can be an overall decent to good player without being a good hitter. He's a really good defender at 3b, 5th in the league according to fangraphs grade. Candelario is 2nd so far this year. He's a good player, just not one with a spectacular bat, and has mediocre career numbers outside of coors that would prevent me from being willing at all to go spend 56 million over 4 years for him on top of giving up several good prospects for him.

Obviously id take him on the team in a vacuum, just not for 56 million over 4 years, plus a bunch of our top prospects, for a guy whose best attribute is the defense when we need a legitimate run producing middle of the order bat. Candelario is the much better fit, much better hitter, and would be significantly cheaper in terms of prospects.

[fish16]

back to the run differential thing. Dating back to may 5th, we have a +46 run differential after last nights game. almost a full 2 month run of good baseball, and not just lucky. they have hit really well, and since eury came up the starting pitching has been tremendous. And that's without sandy pitching all that well and jazz being out for most of it.

[Namaste]

a lot of vegas is making lines that they can get even money on each side for.

I’m aware of that thanks.

[fish16]

I’m aware of that thanks.

It's also marlins -127 Sox +117 now on betonline

[Namaste]

It's also marlins -127 Sox +117 now on betonline

Yes I saw that and it makes it way less suspicious now. If the Red Sox had gone from an underdog to a favorite I would have to consider flying to Vegas and putting an uncomfortable amount of money on the Red Sox haha.

[fish16]

Yes I saw that and it makes it way less suspicious now. If the Red Sox had gone from an underdog to a favorite I would have to consider flying to Vegas and putting an uncomfortable amount of money on the Red Sox haha.

i think that's good value on the marlins side, but it's also the marlins so garrett will probably implode and we lose by 12.

[lou]

But your exact words were “he’s never been a good hitter”.

That’s probably poor choice of words on your part, no?

I mean right?

Since 2021, McMahon is .253/.333/.442 (.318 BABIP), 10.2% K, 26.6% BB, with all sorts of red statcast hard hit rates + "awesome" defense. But I know some find it difficult to understand defense counts and prevents runs. RHP split .824, LHP .655 (they have Segura, Berti, and Amaya remember), away .712. The away is a little concerning, but most hitters do in fact do worse on the road and he hits the ball very hard so my suspicion is he would level out at his career slash minimum (.761 OPS) with a spike up on RHP and down on LHP. Though I would take the over as he's become a better player the last few years as evident by the small uptick in performance from his career slash and really emerging RHP split/2023 rates which. Which I mean, is a very very good player with a 2+ WAR floor and a 3.5+ WAR ceiling if the hard hit rates do stay consistent with a below market contract. He's a 130+ game starter easy entering his prime.

If they can't get a longterm SS, this is the next best thing beyond some pie in the sky Westburg scenario, as Arraez will eventually shuffle to 1B and the assortment of Segura, Berti, Wendle, Amaya, Edwards, Nunez, and presumably another legitimate player eventually, before ideally Watson takes one of the MI spots, rounds out a very longterm IF situation. They got the money and MLB arms to handle this. This is a much smarter idea than spending $50m to absorb 67 year Salvador Perez at this point. Candelario is great, but just wait to see what that rental price is going to be when they do attach Harvey to him. I bet it's going to be a top 100 prospect because everyone is going to want him and there will be a bidding war with no luxury implications. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Nationals just keep him and give him a qualifying offer if the deals are bad as they can recoup a "Fulton" doing nothing here. He would decline and get a 2-3 year deal easily. It's like the Marlins are the only ones who will discover this player on the lowly division rival Nationals? The Angels are going to go insane to try and convince Ohtani to stay and the prices this year are going to be nuts all over with so many contenders panic'd over opportunity this year with Judge hurt and the Mets/Padres/Cardinals/Guardians floundering. So if you're going to have to trade for impact (because good players cost good players), rinse/repeat 3 years of comments the Marlins should absorb payroll as they can afford it, they don't have to worry about the luxury tax which knocks out a multitude of competition for guys like McMahon which is extremely important here in bargaining for deals if you are an only suitor, and really make it worth someone's while with not impacting the current MLB rotation. Plus if it were this Rockies idea, Grichuk is 68th in OPS vs LHP since the start of 2020 (250+ PA) which is a stud LHP platoon guy with his solid defense, and Diaz is definitely not great, but no one else is available. His road OPS (.669) is higher than Berti, Fortes, Segura, and most notably, Stallings by a lot. There is nothing else out there. He's fine and an upgrade, and maybe he does ride this career year a bit. These are perfect secondary guys to add to a deal for a big name and McMahon is a big name. And if you don't believe me, McMahon has a 7.1 WAR (60th best) since the start of 2021. You know who is 58th with only 100 less PA? Luis Arraez (7.6). Major impact player. Not as much as Reynolds or Swanson/Nimmo/Correa/Xander/Turner would have been, but a major player. We would be so lucky for Kim to actually make some moves to help now and letter with little sacrifice.


.

[fish16]

can we point to a situation with a free agent to be like Candelario who fetched a top 100 prospect? Maybe if we're talking very fringe top 100, but if you actually go and look at the recent deadlines, 2 months of above average free agents to be dont get you a top 100 prospect. Brandon drury got the 15th guy in the padres system.

the year before, Kris bryant got the number 9 and 30 prospect in the giants system as a free agent to be. Granted Soler was having a bad year but the braves got him for the 21st prospect in their system. Hell, adam duvall was having a good year and all we got was alex jackson who stunk. Red sox got kyle schwarber for the 19th ranked guy in their system. Yankees got rizzo for the 9th and 12th guys in their system, with the cubs paying a portion of rizzo's salary due to luxury tax issues. Yankees gave up 14, 15, 22, and 25 for Gallo. Rays got nelson cruz for 10 and 17.

There is 0 precedent in recent years for a free agent to be like Candelario getting a top 100 guy.

[emkayseven]

Hey fellas. I've been following the team closely but with a 7 month old and no cable I don't really watch games, relying on someone else's cable login for Bally Sports Go from time to time. Last full game I watched was Eury's debut. I have the opportunity to watch the game tonight. Should I avoid it so as to not jinx the season? They've been doing really well without me watching.

[Nick]

Hey fellas. I've been following the team closely but with a 7 month old and no cable I don't really watch games, relying on someone else's cable login for Bally Sports Go from time to time. Last full game I watched was Eury's debut. I have the opportunity to watch the game tonight. Should I avoid it so as to not jinx the season? They've been doing really well without me watching.

We're going to have bigger games than tonight's game. I say watch, see if you're allowed to watch any more games the rest of the season.