2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

i disagree that edwards cant be a difference maker this year. It's not just stars that make a difference. you can make a positive impact in the margins to improve the bottom half of the roster., which is what i think we need to do if we cant find the impact bat at the deadline. If you remember 2003, contributions at important times can come from guys you least expect, see mike mordecai. It's important to not only improve the middle of the lineup, but its also important to make improvements in the margins to the end of the bench. edwards can be more impactful than Hampson. He might not be a star, but he can help this team this year. Plus, i expect him to be the starter at 2b next year, so any bit of growing pains/experience he can get under his belt this year will be helpful for next years team as well.

If we were talking about someone who would potentially be here to make an impact next year, fine, but hampson stinks in pretty much every facet of the game of baseball. Get edwards up here and see if he can spark the lineup.

[sports24/7]

To me, SS is still the biggest need. Not sure if there’s an impact bat at the position out there, but that would be my priority.

[lou]

To me, SS is still the biggest need. Not sure if there’s an impact bat at the position out there, but that would be my priority.

Belief in Tim Anderson or the house for Peraza. Not sure what else is out there. Kim or Edman if the Padres or Cardinals do completely implode. Westburg playing 2B in Orioles debut tonight but he would be a maybe. All these guys cost a lot.

[fish16]

hampson finally down along with amaya. Jazz is back and so is segura. why on earth wouldnt you give segura some rehab games to get some confidence?

[Nick]

So Jazz’s return is negated by Segura’s return. Got it.

[fish16]

So Jazz’s return is negated by Segura’s return. Got it.

segura is due for regression. he isnt this bad. i just dont get why you dont give him a series or a week in AAA to figure some things out. Hampson being gone is good for the team.

[fish16]

we also claimed eli villalobos right back from the pirates after they claimed him from us earlier this year. So we get him back and now he doesnt need to be on the 40 man.

[Namaste]

It’s not likely that Segura will continue to have a .224 BABIP

[Nick]

The dude has 6 XBHs in 205 ABs. He’s not just unlucky.

[lou]

It’s not likely that Segura will continue to have a .224 BABIP

It's a lot of shitty contact though. However, his expected slash of roughly .240/.310/.330 (.640) would be a healthy 150 point OPS rise from what is happening. Those are platoon/backup numbers though. He should probably get 2B against all lefties and spot duty against right handers, but the Marlins aren't really set up for that right now. This team really needs another infielder unless Edwards or Amaya is a 4-5 day a week answer or Jazz moves back to 2B for a lot of time. Gurriel's bottom is dropping out (.616 OPS in June and statcast suggests that is what his season rate should be with something around .245/.305/.330), so he should be replaced ASAP so they can deploy something like:

RHP - Arraez, Berti, Wendle, ?
LHP - Cooper, Arraez, ?, Segura (Berti LF a bit + 3B a bit with Cooper DH'ing and Soler in RF and Segura at 2B + Arraez off days)

I don't think he'd change things much, but you can count me in for an Edwards/Yuli swap until they make a move. It's probably an upgrade just on speed/defense alone.

[Namaste]

He’s not just unlucky.

I didn’t say that.

Just pointing out that his BABIP this season is literally 100 points lower than his average BABIP over his last 7 seasons.

[fish16]

The dude has 6 XBHs in 205 ABs. He’s not just unlucky.

it's obviously not just luck, but a lack of luck has clearly played a role. as discussed his BABIP is absurdly low., His K rate is right in line with where it has been his entire career. His BB rate is actually the second highest of his career. His BABIP has been between .302 and .353 every year since 2016. this year it is at .224. According to fangraphs his soft hit percentage is the second lowest of his career. his hard hit % is higher than his career average. the biggest difference is essentially launch angle. His ground ball rate is the highest its been since 2015 when he wasnt a good hitter, and his fly ball rate is also the lowest its been since 2015. His exit velocity is exactly where it has been for years.

Again, the biggest difference is launch angle. Here is his launch angle by year since 2016- 7.9, 6.7, 7.8, 7.1, 11.2, 5.8, 4.3, and 3.1. Im not sure if his swing has changed, but the actual hard hit profile hasnt changed, the biggest thing is he is not hitting the ball in the air because of his swing path. If he fixes his swing and gets back to hitting more balls in the air or via line drives, those GIDP turn into more doubles in the gap and he gets back to what he consistently was for the better part of the last 8 years. That's what the issue is with him. That is why i would have sent him to a rehab stint for a few days at least. He needs to work on that.

[fish16]

It's a lot of shitty contact though. However, his expected slash of roughly .240/.310/.330 (.640) would be a healthy 150 point OPS rise from what is happening. Those are platoon/backup numbers though. He should probably get 2B against all lefties and spot duty against right handers, but the Marlins aren't really set up for that right now. This team really needs another infielder unless Edwards or Amaya is a 4-5 day a week answer or Jazz moves back to 2B for a lot of time. Gurriel's bottom is dropping out (.616 OPS in June and statcast suggests that is what his season rate should be with something around .245/.305/.330), so he should be replaced ASAP so they can deploy something like:

RHP - Arraez, Berti, Wendle, ?
LHP - Cooper, Arraez, ?, Segura (Berti LF a bit + 3B a bit with Cooper DH'ing and Soler in RF and Segura at 2B + Arraez off days)

I don't think he'd change things much, but you can count me in for an Edwards/Yuli swap until they make a move. It's probably an upgrade just on speed/defense alone.

it's not any shittier than it has been literally his entire career. every part of his hit profile is the same other than launch angle and getting balls in the air. His exit velocity by year since 2015 is 86.9, 89.0, 87.6, 87.7, 88.2, 87.7, 87.2, 87.6, and this year it is 87.5. Nothing has changed other than him hitting the ball in the air due to launch angle. Literally every other facet of his swing profile has remained the same.

[fish16]

also, gurriel absolutely should not be cut. Idc what the peripherals say, he has value as a veteran who has a ton of playoff experience and has consistently stepped up in bigger moments. He also does not strike out often, just 11.5% this year which is close to elite. His value is obviously not as a starter, but as a bench guy with a very important ability to just make contact in key situations. Like Saturday when he pinch hit and hit a sac fly to get the run in right away. You keep smart, tested veterans like that. He had a bad start to june because he was playing every day, which he shouldnt be doing at this point in his career.

Since he has settled back into more of a platoon role again the last 15 days, he has hit .320 with a ,773 OPS and just 2 k's in 26 PA's. He gives you consistent professional at bats off the bench with an ability to start a few days a week and give you a few hits. That is where his value resides. There are several guys ahead of him in the pecking order of guys who need to leave.

Just because you never wanted him here in the first place doesnt mean he should go after a few bad weeks. Need i remind you that you wanted elvis andrus for several million over him because of his abilities to hit lefties and this year he has proceeded to hit for a .543 overall OPS and a .433 OPS against lefties. they made the right call and have gotten value out of his minor league deal

[lou]

I didn’t say that.

Just pointing out that his BABIP this season is literally 100 points lower than his average BABIP over his last 7 seasons.

What's fun is, his FG projection is .7 WAR the rest of the year (effectively a 1.5 WAR player over a season), which is fine for what they are paying him, but that's basically a 2 win improvement compared to what he did in the first half (-1.1 WAR). Segura being a .650 OPS hitter with neutral defense can produce 2 wins compared to his first half which is hilarious. They still need another infielder though to protect against him not doing that plus the very needed player upgrade.

If only they had thought about this sooner.

Swanson 3 WAR
Boegarts 1.8 WAR
Turner 1.5 WAR
Correa .5 WAR (.247 BABIP)