2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Not great, but I can't find much to argue about.

I agree, but I do like Amaya and Edwards as higher probability backups, Watson did get a better write up than last year, there is some real hope with Mesa Jr., Nasim, Mack, and Hernandez, they have legit 10-15 future pen arms and they can burn out 66% and still have the back of their pen and inventory arms, and they do have a variety of athletic teenagers and you never know.

This is definitely missing the OOMPH at the top and that falls squarely on them drafting Berry. Lee and Neto would be REALLY appreciated right now instead of him. What a mistake (so far).


It's frankly all about identifying which two SP to trade longterm and for whom, nailing these deadline trades if they do fall out, and Bruce needs to sign someone great this offseason. I think they'll look pretty good if they do that. Of course this is effectively adding 3 big bats which is a lot.

[rmc523]

I agree, but I do like Amaya and Edwards as higher probability backups, Watson did get a better write up than last year, there is some real hope with Mesa Jr., Nasim, Mack, and Hernandez, they have legit 10-15 future pen arms and they can burn out 66% and still have the back of their pen and inventory arms, and they do have a variety of athletic teenagers and you never know.

This is definitely missing the OOMPH at the top and that falls squarely on them drafting Berry. Lee and Neto would be REALLY appreciated right now instead of him. What a mistake (so far).


It's frankly all about identifying which two SP to trade longterm and for whom, nailing these deadline trades if they do fall out, and Bruce needs to sign someone great this offseason. I think they'll look pretty good if they do that. Of course this is effectively adding 3 big bats which is a lot.

We need to clean house in our hitting development and drafting.

we've needed 2 big bats for multiple offseasons. I have no faith they'd get THREE.

[lou]

We need to clean house in our hitting development and drafting.

we've needed 2 big bats for multiple offseasons. I have no faith they'd get THREE.

Yes to the first. Arraez, DLC, Sanchez, Jazz, Edwards, and Amaya (presumably their 6 long term bats even if 3 or more may be bench guys) all trades. They've developed Fortes and Burdick in this entire generation of hitters (as the traded ones like Bleday, Misner, and Scott aren't killing anyone), and might have some guys for 25/26. Shit, even Cooper, Stallings, Wendle, Groshans, and Berti were trades and Segura, Garcia, Soler, Yuli, and Hampson free agents. It's literally Fortes, Burdick, and JERAR. Clean house with whoever is doing the hitting.

Yea but look at the trades post-Yelich. Jazz is good, Arraez is good, DLC looks like a real find, Sanchez has talent, looks like they did really low-key beneficial deals with Edwards and Amaya. They aren't terrible here, even if Gallen is likely better. I do have faith they can turn presumably Rogers (makes most $$$) and one of Garrett/Eder into two impact bats, and likely slum the rest with some interesting guys. The third one will have to be a free agent, unless they sign a SP and they trade 3 of the top 8 starters so to speak.

So it's both a lot of work, and not much. Those arms are insanely valuable which may save them but we'll see.

[rmc523]

Yes to the first. Arraez, DLC, Sanchez, Jazz, Edwards, and Amaya (presumably their 6 long term bats even if 3 or more may be bench guys) all trades. They've developed Fortes and Burdick in this entire generation of hitters (as the traded ones like Bleday, Misner, and Scott aren't killing anyone), and might have some guys for 25/26. Shit, even Cooper, Stallings, Wendle, Groshans, and Berti were trades and Segura, Garcia, Soler, Yuli, and Hampson free agents. It's literally Fortes, Burdick, and JERAR. Clean house with whoever is doing the hitting.

Yea but look at the trades post-Yelich. Jazz is good, Arraez is good, DLC looks like a real find, Sanchez has talent, looks like they did really low-key beneficial deals with Edwards and Amaya. They aren't terrible here, even if Gallen is likely better. I do have faith they can turn presumably Rogers (makes most $$$) and one of Garrett/Eder into two impact bats, and likely slum the rest with some interesting guys. The third one will have to be a free agent, unless they sign a SP and they trade 3 of the top 8 starters so to speak.

So it's both a lot of work, and not much. Those arms are insanely valuable which may save them but we'll see.

Trades (ignoring Stallings) seem to be ok.

But whoever is selecting the draft picks and/or responsible for their hitting programs once they get here is doing terribly. And I get you won't hit with every pick.....but we're talking about.....what, virtually 0 homegrown bats since this group took over?

[lou]

Trades (ignoring Stallings) seem to be ok.

But whoever is selecting the draft picks and/or responsible for their hitting programs once they get here is doing terribly. And I get you won't hit with every pick.....but we're talking about.....what, virtually 0 homegrown bats since this group took over?

Neto, drafted after Berry last year, has a .8 WAR in 157 PA and is flashing plus defense at SHORTSTOP, good eye, and hitting the ball hard enough as a 22 year old. That, plus Brooks Lee who went 2 spots after Berry, who is doing well in AA and going to be a 3B defender, really really hurts.

When do we get some good news like this? Of course, Eury is "the best" news which is what other fan bases would say, but we are due for a bat. Brian Anderson has been the best bat they've developed since he was called up in 2017?

[rmc523]

Neto, drafted after Berry last year, has a .8 WAR in 157 PA and is flashing plus defense at SHORTSTOP, good eye, and hitting the ball hard enough as a 22 year old. That, plus Brooks Lee who went 2 spots after Berry, who is doing well in AA and going to be a 3B defender, really really hurts.

When do we get some good news like this? Of course, Eury is "the best" news which is what other fan bases would say, but we are due for a bat. Brian Anderson has been the best bat they've developed since he was called up in 2017?

Meanwhile BA has 8 hr / 30 RBI / 23 BB and .242 avg for MIL. All for $3.5M

Vs. Segura's 0 HR / 7 RBI / 12 BB and .198 avg. for a guaranteed $10.5M (8.5M this year + 2M buyout of next year's 10M team option)

Sure would be nice to have that, plus Bruce would've saved $7M.

[Nick]

Meanwhile BA has 8 hr / 30 RBI / 23 BB and .242 avg for MIL. All for $3.5M

Vs. Segura's 0 HR / 7 RBI / 12 BB and .198 avg. for a guaranteed $10.5M (8.5M this year + 2M buyout of next year's 10M team option)

Sure would be nice to have that, plus Bruce would've saved $7M.

I think we can blame them for signing Segura, but tough for me to blame them on BA, he was here for years and wasn't doing that for us, at some point you have to cut your losses.

[rmc523]

I think we can blame them for signing Segura, but tough for me to blame them on BA, he was here for years and wasn't doing that for us, at some point you have to cut your losses.

That's fair. He has equaled last year's production for the full season already.

--

It's amazing how all their vet bat signings also fall completely on their faces upon arriving.

[lou]

I think we can blame them for signing Segura, but tough for me to blame them on BA, he was here for years and wasn't doing that for us, at some point you have to cut your losses.

I blame them at $3.5m and him being the "last" bat free agent worth a MLB deal so a good opportunity to scoop, but not what the arbitration tender ($5m+) would have been. They should have still signed Segura (even if he sucks, its a hindsight bad decision) and BA should have been the Yuli upgrade so to speak once the whiffed on everyone else.

BA also has one of the wildest statcasts I have ever seen - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

4th percentile hard hit but he barrels everything (79th), he walks (73rd), he whiffs (24%, and 17% chase), this all adds up to a solid weighted on base (61%) and average expected slugging (54%), and hes a top notch defender (87%) despite the foot speed (very slow - 29%), and has the best arm strength in all of baseball (100%). Just totally wild here. I'm not sure how he does it. This is a good platoon player worth 450+ PA and late inning defense who will punish some pitches, but overall isn't very exciting offensively. Lose the walks and slugging and he is just a defender deadweight ala Jake Marisnick.

[Nick]

Hypothetical: Would you lock up Soler at another 3-year/$36 million deal right now? Would he take it?

[fish16]

Hypothetical: Would you lock up Soler at another 3-year/$36 million deal right now? Would he take it?

he's on pace for 50 hr's, 103 rbi's, and an .885 OPS. Wouldnt come close if he keeps this up

[lou]

Hypothetical: Would you lock up Soler at another 3-year/$36 million deal right now? Would he take it?

Yes because that is way below market value (assuming this is Soler now). Josh Bell got 2/$32 off back to back 1.9 WAR seasons which seems like a reasonable comp. If Soler is amazing all year he may get into Rizzo territory (2/$34 with a third year option with a $6m buyout, so $40m guaranteed). But Soler is a real up and down guy so I have a hard time seeing a third guaranteed big money year unless he is just all world like right now.

It's probably a 2/$36m extension right now with him at his peak???


Also, he does have PA incentives to raise the guarantee next year:

• 2024 salary increases based on plate appearances in 2023: $500,000 each for 350, 400 PA. $1M each for 450, 500, 550 PA

With what is happening, he's going to get all of them and be $13m next year. He still opts out of that though as he'd easily get at least a second guaranteed year.


That being said - can the Marlins tender him if he declines his option? That's what happened with Joc taking the 1/$19m deal. Soler may opt to max out with that versus taking a 2/$32m deal like Bell and betting on himself again, etc.


I'd be open to a 2/$28-34m extension guaranteed right now and he can have those PA incentives again for 2025 if he scorches earth in 2024, etc. That might be discussion if he is still amazing and they fall out though, as it's take the money or trade him, and then reapportion that in FA, etc. Soler might get A LOT at the deadline which we do have to be conscious about if the team bottom sinks.

[Lee Stone]

In the offseason we were praying that Soler would perform well enough to waive his option for next year. Our prayers appear to have been answered and even improved upon - now it looks as though we can actually trade him without having to pay off part of his contract AND get a decent prospect! That's as far as the conversation should go. Extending him would be silly. He ought to be traded this week.

[Nick]

We're not living in reality if we think Soler is going to be traded any time before maybe the week of the trade deadline.

Most realistic scenario is we're getting to late July, we're something like 49-51. Realistically not going anywhere, but still too close to a wild card spot to give up, and we sit on our hands. That's why I pose the question, at what pay level, and how many years does keeping Soler around become palatable/worth it?

[Nick]

he's on pace for 50 hr's, 103 rbi's, and an .885 OPS. Wouldnt come close if he keeps this up

1. He's not going to keep up this pace.
2. He won World Series MVP and got 3 years/$36 million not that long ago, and had a poor year sandwiched in between.

I agree with lou he's probably looking at a 1-year $20 million or 2-year $30 million deal coming his way in Free Agency, barring him being a borderline MVP candidate this year, or falling off a cliff.