2023 Game Thread

[rmc523]

They have the worst run differential in the national league (4th worst in league), are pacing as having the worst offense in baseball over the last 10 seasons, their best or second best position player is out a month, two starting pitchers are hurt, and a wide assortment of guys (Sandy, Catchers, Segura) are underperforming. In the race? They are only in the race in the sense they have an unsustainable 14-1 record in 1 run games. It's been great for sure, but saying it is not pretty is an understatement. They are out of contention already whether we want to accept that or not absent radical improvements. They will not go 40-5 in 1 run games this year. I personally want to enjoy real winning, not getting a 79 win participation trophy and holding onto assets that could improve the team longterm.

As mentioned, I would say doing nothing is the worst decision. Sell guys at potential highs (Soler, Floro), or do the opposite and get them help right now. Bet on yourself that you survived the early season storm, the injured guys are coming back and Sandy, Catchers, Segura, etc. will improve, and get the guys you need to float the team NOW with the beneficial schedule before the reality of post ASB kicks in. They need to get 5-6-7 games over .500 by the time August hits, and then hope to play .500 from there so to speak. Obviously they would need two to tango and May is early, but there are a couple of teams who are in fact done already. Why not try to do something very aggressive like this:

Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada (Adds roughly $20m to 2023 payroll, and $39m to 2024. I think they will have $30+m to spend in 2024 even with Bruce budgets, so this just means they can't pick up Cueto option. So they can live with that and can afford it next year. It's a question of would Bruce invest in the team right now as the only new money would be that 2023 sum which yes is a lot for Bruce Sherman). Those guys surplus value might be as low as $20-25m (but with huge upside). That is effectively sending them Eder, Groshans, Amaya/Nasim, Simpson/Monteverde, and a throw in. If that is low, it's probably Edwards and the Comp Pick they have and keep the throw in instead. That makes a lot of sense for them when they can reapportion that $60m dollars saved into a nice # 3 SP for them next year in free agency. It hypothetically works. I'm a big Moncada fan and think he can be that guy from 2019/2021 *if* healthy (the big contingent here for me, medicals have to check out), and Anderson should be better than this obviously. That would be such a radical spark for the Marlins with to the moon upside. Both would be in contract years next year for their last chance at a mega deal so if they are ever going to have their career year, it's now to next year. I'd be aggressive as hell with something like this understanding it probably won't take a MLB SP, Berry, or Cappe to do it.

Ryan McMahon is the other guy that makes sense on paper. He's a good defender (historically) and his statcast is very red. He's just like DLC/Sanchez - whiff 25% of the time and he will be pretty good. I haven't seen enough to know what's going on right now, but if the whiffs are a SSS, he's a solid player to help. He's effectively signed for 5/$65 including this year, but it's spread out so not as financially difficult as the White Sox influx for 2023. He's not a world beater, but he should be fine for awhile and I think he lives outside Coors with how hard he hits it (yes I know the career splits). Just can't whiff. This surplus value is even lower than the White Sox guys probably, and maybe Fulton and parts would get this done alone.

I also think an Avisail-Corbin swap with the Marlins throwing in something like Enright and Morisette makes sense. It's almost dollar for dollar, but the Nationals get some low end FV40 guys and a balloon ($35m) off the books next year, and that sets up the Marlins using their other pitchers for trades as Corbin isn't exactly terrible (1.4 WAR last 200 innings with a 4.2 xFIP) to have 5th SP veteran innings.


These might be good, might be bad ideas. White Sox are probably the key right now as they are terrible and have no chance. But similar to the Dbacks and Pirates, if you're going to contend, it's planting the flag now and going for it, and you can add in July again if you are doing well. *Or* trade Moncada, Anderson, Soler, and gang then if you fall out but at least you went for it at the correct time of the season. Treading water isn't going to work. Sorry if I am the fun police, but I am the fun police and I don't think anyone conceptually disagrees with the saying out loud - they need massive help right now or losing is an inevitability. So plant the flag, or approach from the longterm view this is not the year.

I did not say I'm against shipping folks out if/when we collapse for long term benefit. I said I'm against it NOW. Baseball is weird, and "bad" teams on paper can do well, and vice-versa. Like it or not, there is an optics component here too - you're just asking for people to fully say "F U Marlins" by throwing the towel in while they're in it.

I AM all for trying to improve the roster now with longer term pieces to try to avoid that collapse that metrics may point to.

I am tired of checking out in April because the team is so bad. And you want to wave the white flag and circle some ever-shifting hypothetical 2024...no 2025....no 2026 date as "the year" continually waiting until EVERYTHING goes JUST right to have a shot at contention, which as we see never happens.

Improve the damn team, build some positivity around this franchise. Do your job Kim - the job you half-assed and didn't complete in the last 2 offseasons - ignoring obvious holes for consecutive offseasons.

[Lee Stone]

I'm saying trade Sandy so we can be better this year. We can get three instant starters from Baltimore that would appreciably add to the team.

[Nick]

Nobody respond to that. I'm begging you.

[rmc523]

Nobody respond to that. I'm begging you.

I wanted to reply with "NO." but i'll resist haha.

[lou]

I did not say I'm against shipping folks out if/when we collapse for long term benefit. I said I'm against it NOW. Baseball is weird, and "bad" teams on paper can do well, and vice-versa. Like it or not, there is an optics component here too - you're just asking for people to fully say "F U Marlins" by throwing the towel in while they're in it.

I AM all for trying to improve the roster now with longer term pieces to try to avoid that collapse that metrics may point to.

I am tired of checking out in April because the team is so bad. And you want to wave the white flag and circle some ever-shifting hypothetical 2024...no 2025....no 2026 date as "the year" continually waiting until EVERYTHING goes JUST right to have a shot at contention, which as we see never happens.

Improve the damn team, build some positivity around this franchise. Do your job Kim - the job you half-assed and didn't complete in the last 2 offseasons - ignoring obvious holes for consecutive offseasons.

Anderson and Moncada do that so we're in accord on this aspect. Whether it's them or someone else, go for it or maybe its another month of fun baseball and then we start solely thinking about sell offs come July. I can't imagine those guys cost more than one of them (Eder in my hypothetical) and a lot of secondary prospects Marlins can afford to move. I think that would be a tremendous on and off the field and short and long term statement. Assuming Moncada's medicals check out of course.

[Namaste]

His ops isn’t .800. And if it was, it would be nice, but without defensive value and being a bad base runner and having an inability to draw walks, that’s the type of corner outfield/1b/dh types that are available every offseason for cheap. My issue with him is not that he’s some terrible or bad hitter, he’s a fairly average hitter, he just has no other value in any other aspect of the game

answer the question

If a player has a .800 OPS and they have a 30% K rate does his 30% K rate matter

[rmc523]

Woo for the lead.

[lou]

answer the question

If a player has a .800 OPS and they have a 30% K rate does his 30% K rate matter

What about .776 after a 2nd inning HR? But it was a weak HR only being a HR in 9/30 parks and having an expected hit of only .660. Wendle's groundout had a hit expectancy of .680 for crying out loud.

To be fair, I think we need to get to the ASB with DLC. The hot/cold streaks are bananas and he of all guys needs a larger sample size to figure out what is going on with the benders. He's hitting the shit out of the ball right now though. I maintain he's going to be pretty good at a 25% whiff rate, floor JD Davis kind of guy, with peak Teoscar upside if it all clicks.

[Nick]

I think DLC has a long enough track record to know what he is at this point. He's a super-streaky hitter who will ultimately settle around a .750 OPS.

[Nick]

He's an incredibly inconsistent hitter whose numbers have been completely consistent over his 3 years in the big leagues.

[Nick]

If Xavier Edwards should be our every day CF until Jazz comes back.

[Nick]

Let him pitch the 6th.

[Namaste]

All 3 of the HRs that Eury had given up have been fastballs

[lou]

I think DLC has a long enough track record to know what he is at this point. He's a super-streaky hitter who will ultimately settle around a .750 OPS.

I think he is evolving, he is a different hitter than his first year. I'll take the over on a .750 OPS if he whiffs in the 26% range (that is effectively his career rates). I think we need to se a lot more. Look at Teoscar 24-26 to 27-28. DLC is still pretty young and establishing himself ya know.

[sports24/7]

Trading players who are performing well now while we sit in the 3rd Wild Card spot is probably my least favorite take of 2023. That’s putting it as nicely as I could.

Yes, there are some clear warning signs of a mirage.

Here are some other things going on:

Sandy has been garbage. He will likely get better.
Edward Cabrera has been garbage
We just called Eury up
We just got Chargois back
Cooper is back as Jazz goes on IL
Jeab Segura is hitting the ball hard and often. Regression is coming

I’m ALL IN on being sellers at the deadline if we are out of the WC hunt. Doing it now? C’mon. This fan base hasn’t been through enough?

That's fair, and it won't happen anyway. But while we can talk about the reasons why the Marlins can be a contender, what kind of odds would you give that actually happening? On the flip side of that, you could say things like will the bullpen be as good as it has been for the rest of the season? Will they continue to get what they've gotten out of guys like DLC, Berti, and Hampson? When (not if) will Cooper get hurt again? Will Jazz come back and stay healthy for the rest of the season? What happens if Sandy doesn't get better? And even if none of that happens, and the reasons for optimism you give come to fruition, there's still a decent chance the Marlins won't be good enough to even get a wildcard spot.

You can (and they will) wait until the deadline, but what happens if Soler's play falls off or he gets hurt before then? If you can get a legitimate return for him right now, I think taking the emotion out of it, that would be the best move for the franchise. This team only has so many options to add talent when they refuse to spend money, and this is one of them.

Yeah let’s trade Jorge Soler

If you thought that the suggestion that they should trade him was because he isn't good, then you missed the point.