2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

So Nick Senzel is a piece of shit.

[Nick]

We are the stupidest fucking team.

[Nick]

I really dislike the move of bringing Hoeing in in this situation.

[Lee Stone]

I've been excited about Burdick forever, BUT his 35% whiff rate last season was a problem. In his first 20 ab this year, he's struck out 9 times. He really hasn't faced many top line pitchers either.

[lou]

Stallings .167 BABIP before that screamer LD for another out

Yea but his defense looks like it cratered with last year not being the outlier performance. Mack and Banfield also really struggling, and is McIntosh a catcher? Stallings should be better, but that's relative to virtually unplayable today. I thought there was a chance they were going to get some mileage out of the organizational catchers this year, and a bunch of professionals believed Stallings and Fortes would work out, but it's not looking great. Fortes has a dumb BABIP and his defense is solid, so he may be a solid backup. But this may arguably be the top organizational need - even more than SS - depending on what happens. Basically, maybe Berti, Nasim, and Amaya, with some Cappe potential, may be a better SS situation than Fortes and whatever.

Maybe it's this next year or something...

____, Fortes (likely longterm C needed)
Arraez, _____ (one year FA stick and banking on Berry in 25. Could be Soler with no opt out)
Segura, Edwards
______ (likely longterm SS needed)
______, Berti (one year 3B to help unless Groshans can handle 100+ starts....or if Cappe will play SS a few years, could be a stopgap SS and longterm 3B instead)
DLC
Jazz
Sanchez, Garcia

With bonus points if they upgrade DLC/Sanchez/Garcia on top of this. A lot of work to be done here.

[lou]

I've been excited about Burdick forever, BUT his 35% whiff rate last season was a problem. In his first 20 ab this year, he's struck out 9 times. He really hasn't faced many top line pitchers either.

Pretty much. A 25% whiffing DLC, Sanchez, or Burdick is going to profile as a pretty good player. And that's even if they do that with a platoon split.

[Nick]

Yea but his defense looks like it cratered with last year not being the outlier performance. Mack and Banfield also really struggling, and is McIntosh a catcher? Stallings should be better, but that's relative to virtually unplayable today. I thought there was a chance they were going to get some mileage out of the organizational catchers this year, and a bunch of professionals believed Stallings and Fortes would work out, but it's not looking great. Fortes has a dumb BABIP and his defense is solid, so he may be a solid backup.

Mack's performance has been very discouraging. McIntosh is a bench player that can play Catcher in a pinch in my eyes, defensively from what I've seen and heard, not good enough for an every day catcher. Barely played this year, due to injureis. I think Banfield eventually becomes a decent backup catcher in the bigs. It might not be until he's 26/27 though. He's cut down on the K's in AA, and his BABIP is real low this year.

[lou]

Mack's performance has been very discouraging. McIntosh is a bench player that can play Catcher in a pinch in my eyes, defensively from what I've seen and heard, not good enough for an every day catcher. Barely played this year, due to injureis. I think Banfield eventually becomes a decent backup catcher in the bigs. It might not be until he's 26/27 though. He's cut down on the K's in AA, and his BABIP is real low this year.

Sure but if we're thinking about next year's team. It's probably something like this:

____, Fortes
Arraez, ____/Groshans
Segura, Berti
______
______/Groshans, Edwards/Groshans
DLC/Burdick
Jazz
Sanchez/Burdick, Garcia/Burdick

Considering Berry and Cappe are the top two position players (ignoring Berry performance), it's probably not clogging 1B or SS/3B (wherever Cappe lands) with an expensive or long term player as you'd hope they naturally take over spots maybe as soon as summer 2024 if everything goes right.

So are the smartest longterm moves get a longterm C because they are all whatever it seems and opposite SS/3B versus Cappe, 1 year guys for 1B and the other of SS/3B, and then clearly there are luxury upgrade opportunities for the OF. Basically, if there is some conviction Cappe can play SS for a few years, I think we could get behind Hoskins (primary DH) + Rosario for cheap in free agency in show-me 1 year deals, sign a legitimate SP (better than Cueto), and then trade two major arms from Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Garrett, and Fulton for a play-now C and 3B. Bonus points to get a better outfielder/DH versus DLC/Sanchez/Garcia during all of this. Which may also become more important as the season goes along, but at least at the moment Sanchez (.861 OPS RHP) and DLC (earlier hot streak + now a .860 May OPS after whiffing every PA against Atlanta) are at least having their moments to show they should be playing (when healthy of course) to see what they might become.


So this was about the catchers, and it's early and things could look different in 4-6 weeks for sure, but in the back of my head catcher is just creeping up as an issue. Hopefully Fortes course corrects which would be very helpful here if we can think they just need a backup versus a 90+ game starter next year. That'll open up resources to effectively improve the worst of DLC/Sanchez/Garcia, and my guess is that'll be Garcia.

[Nick]

Sure but if we're thinking about next year's team. It's probably something like this:

____, Fortes
Arraez, ____/Groshans
Segura, Berti
______
______/Groshans, Edwards/Groshans
DLC/Burdick
Jazz
Sanchez/Burdick, Garcia/Burdick

Considering Berry and Cappe are the top two position players (ignoring Berry performance), it's probably not clogging 1B or SS/3B (wherever Cappe lands) with an expensive or long term player as you'd hope they naturally take over spots maybe as soon as summer 2024 if everything goes right.

So are the smartest longterm moves get a longterm C because they are all whatever it seems and opposite SS/3B versus Cappe, 1 year guys for 1B and the other of SS/3B, and then clearly there are luxury upgrade opportunities for the OF. Basically, if there is some conviction Cappe can play SS for a few years, I think we could get behind Hoskins (primary DH) + Rosario for cheap in free agency in show-me 1 year deals, sign a legitimate SP (better than Cueto), and then trade two major arms from Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Garrett, and Fulton for a play-now C and 3B. Bonus points to get a better outfielder/DH versus DLC/Sanchez/Garcia during all of this. Which may also become more important as the season goes along, but at least at the moment Sanchez (.861 OPS RHP) and DLC (earlier hot streak + now a .860 May OPS after whiffing every PA against Atlanta) are at least having their moments to show they should be playing (when healthy of course) to see what they might become.


So this was about the catchers, and it's early and things could look different in 4-6 weeks for sure, but in the back of my head catcher is just creeping up as an issue. Hopefully Fortes course corrects which would be very helpful here if we can think they just need a backup versus a 90+ game starter next year. That'll open up resources to effectively improve the worst of DLC/Sanchez/Garcia, and my guess is that'll be Garcia.

A big bat should be the #1 priority. Regardless of position. There’s literally no position that is locked up by anybody. Jazz could be moved back to 2nd Arraez could be moved to 1st. Get the best bat you possibly can.

[fish16]

Pretty much. A 25% whiffing DLC, Sanchez, or Burdick is going to profile as a pretty good player. And that's even if they do that with a platoon split.

a 25% whiffing DLC is what he has been for his career, and it hasnt profiled as a pretty good player. He is a 1.7 WAR for his career over 715 PA's. That's not starter level production. Unless he becomes a very very good hitter with actual results, he is a bench player with good hard hit profiles because again, he is a bad fielder and a horrific base runner.

Sanchez for the most part the same, but he at least has shown some progress with the walks this year and he has weirdly stolen a decent amount of bases in both spring and 3 so far this year. He's also not a positive defender but he's better than DLC in that area. More passable than either good or bad.

Burdick could be something but id like to see him get more run. If he slugs like he has the potential to, he can become a decent enough player even with the k issue. If he lowers the k's, he becomes a long term piece. He has speed and other tools that the other 2 dont really have. He swiped 18 bags over his 124 games in AAA and he walks a lot in his career despite the k's. He consistently had double digit walk rates every step of the way in the minors.

[fish16]

A big bat should be the #1 priority. Regardless of position. There’s literally no position that is locked up by anybody. Jazz could be moved back to 2nd Arraez could be moved to 1st. Get the best bat you possibly can.

this. they need star level hitting talent. figure out the positions later. But this team is like 3 really good bats short of being a contender. A star level bat at C would really make a difference though given the overall level of hitting catchers throughout the league, plus Stallings is not a major league player and fortes has struggled so far this year. Feels like everywhere else they have pretty much replacement level to average talent, but they need the impact bats that actually make the difference and not just competent pieces.

[sports24/7]

As disappointing as some of the Marlins top prospects like Berry, Mack, and Fulton have been, it's been nice to see some others showing some encouraging signs. We talked about Mesa, and he continues to hit. Nasim Nunez looks like he may be able to hit enough to be a glove-first big leaguer. Kahlil Watson's season was slowed by an injury, but since coming back he's holding his own. Cappe has cooled off in May, but appears to be a real prospect. Even Jacob Amaya is starting to hit. It would obviously be huge for these guys to pan out, after so many bats have failed to in this system.

[fish16]

As disappointing as some of the Marlins top prospects like Berry, Mack, and Fulton have been, it's been nice to see some others showing some encouraging signs. We talked about Mesa, and he continues to hit. Nasim Nunez looks like he may be able to hit enough to be a glove-first big leaguer. Kahlil Watson's season was slowed by an injury, but since coming back he's holding his own. Cappe has cooled off in May, but appears to be a real prospect. Even Jacob Amaya is starting to hit. It would obviously be huge for these guys to pan out, after so many bats have failed to in this system.

nunez being able to hit big league pitching at an even average level would be a huge development because his glove is ridiculously elite. he has shown serious signs since the end of last year. Hopefully it continues. The only thing with him is there just needs to be more extra base hits. It's great that he has 3 hr's (although they were in a super small park), but he also has just 1 double and 1 triple. For that skill set to succeed, he needs to hit more gappers. I just dont think you can survive at the big league level never hitting extra base hits. against better pitching, he will get eaten alive. but it's been a major improvement over the last year so let's see if it continues.

Watson is the biggest wildcard in the system by far. Him developing like we hoped he would when he was first drafted would be a huge bonus. He has the most elite tools of anyone in the system.

Berry just cannot be a bust. We need him to develop as advertised. I hope he can, but he is just too much colin moran 2.0 to me. even worse is he is without a position. Hopefully he proves me wrong as it is desperately needed. If 2 of these guys can develop and then we can find a 3rd another way (trade for pitching or god forbid we sign a top tier free agent), we would have a totally different outlook. but as of now, we need to fill 7 lineup spots long term, and that's not easy for the rays, let alone a team like the marlins who havent developed a hitter themselves in close to a decade.

Xavier edwards developing into the prototypical 2b would also be big. he has been what we want Nunez to be but better and at a higher level. If those 2 can become the middle infield of the future, all of a sudden the future looks a bit brighter.

Hopefully by the middle of next year we can start piecing this together:

C- Black hole. desperately need to add a guy for next year one way or another
1b-Arraez
2b- Edwards
SS- Nunez
3b- Segura, then we need a long term improvement
LF- Sanchez/Burdick/DLC- need to find whatever platoon mix works that gives us an above average regular on the aggregate
CF- Jazz
RF- unfortunately garcia
DH- re-sign cooper for a year or 2

We just need that 1 thumper in the middle of the lineup. Without that, it becomes really hard to score runs in bulk because it's a bunch of slap hitters. good slap hitters hopefully, but slap hitters nonetheless in the modern age. Won't work.

[Nick]

Already looking to 2024, I think Xavier Edwards, Jacob Amaya and Nasim Nunez will all be contributors.

C: Fortes/???
1B: Arraez
2B: Edwards/Segura
SS: Nunez/Amaya
3B: ???
LF/RF: Sanchez/DLC/Burdick (2 of the 3)
CF: Jazz
LF/RF: ???
DH: Cooper or Soler

Like I said, you get the best hitter available and these pieces can be moved around. The 3 ???s you have to fucking knock it out of the park. You need an above average starting catcher, and the other two need to be star level hitters.

[fish16]

xavier edwards should be up here playing everyday somehow btw. We're not exactly getting elite production anywhere outside of arraez, and edwards has been ridiculous in Jax. Hitting .316, .431 OBP, .389 slugging, .820 OPS, 19 walks to just 9 strikeouts, and has stolen 8/9 bags. That can be a great leadoff hitter in front of arraez and jazz immediately. It's also right in line, and even slightly better, than what he was his first few minor league years before last year when he was a top 100 guy. He should be up here. If soler or cooper get hurt again, bring him up, move arraez to first, and play him every day at 2b.