2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Yep, speaking as someone whose fandom obviously took a massive step back, I've been waiting for Sherman to prove he's actually an owner worth supporting (because that's what we are doing by supporting the team: we are supporting the owner). I think this offseason is one of the most important in franchise history and will be a big part of if I make the jump back in fully.

To be frank I was pretty upset they didn't Jayson Werth a SS the past couple of offseasons when there were actually good SS FAs. It's a very clear hole going forward, and there were a LOT of FA options. Obviously never though it'd happen (and ignorant of if players would even sign here) - but it would have actually shown that they were willing to invest in this core, by making sure there would be a team ready when the core was ready. Now our core is ready, and we're getting a barely getting a positive WAR in totality from the position, and all the FA SS suck ass.

I am optimistic with the fact we spent money to get better players at the deadline, when under Loria it was always the opposite. Which to that point I'm not going to act like this offseason is the *only* one that matters, if options aren't there then they aren't there. But also is why you should snap up options of need before they're required, so that you have them when it's required instead of looking around with a thumb up your ass.

A second and third NNY substantive post this year? Don't spoil us.

And yea, this is the whole Rangers thing. They signed Seager and Semien a year early. This team should have clearly done that. And then they didn't do it again with the four last year. The Rangers did get the ballpark so they had a revenue bump coming to do that, but it's also transitioning to the kids with having some stud players around to lead them. Corey Seager has a 5.9 WAR right now. How amazing is that looking for the Marlins if they had some vision/weren't so cheap? When are they going to realize invest in the product and the product will get better?

Not to segway into my usual, but they have *1* opportunity left to do this at SS IMO and it is Adames. 1 year left on deal and Milwaukee isn't going to pay him longterm. Something like Rogers, Berti (he is expendable), Okert, and whatever would get that done IMO for them to influx a significant SP with some good role players, etc. A lot of control years there for cheap for "1" Adames control year. Adames at a $130-150m contract and resigning a good SP (or collection of RP) to replace Rogers and Berti could easily be done for $30-40m, and all of a sudden we're around the Swanson deal financially (i.e. the cheapest of the major SS moves) and the Marlins haven't lost anything shuffling the deck. That becomes a total forgiveness level move to me. I don't see anyone else out there that is moving the needle at SS, absent a larger play with the Yankees moving Peraza but I doubt they do something like that happens, etc. Or just outright sign Bellinger or Snell and trade DLC or Rogers again for a lesser SS and that's all fine adding some top end production with the free agent. There are a few ways to slice it if they get creative and spend some money.

So yes, this is thee offseason for Bruce but I'd go further and say this one really matters because there are always options if you're willing to make moves, they are good (on paper) today, and the Mets and Nationals (both spenders) are rebuilding. I posted a day or so ago they should extend Arraez, Jazz, Eury, Luzardo, Scott, and Soler, and then make a move for Adames. The control years with the team would be amazing where they can take some prospect trade risks if need be to fill out anything. The core team would effectively be controlled for 4-5 years all over.

It's time with this ownership group. *BUT* lets make the playoffs and we have December to bitch about this.

[lou]

In regards to the stadium, I live in Denver now and it's crazy the juxtaposition of the two teams. Both came in at the same time, both have sucked ass but the two WS clearly put the Marlins well in front of the Rockies.

Yet the Rockies have constantly had 2-3 times the attendance, because it's the best place to go drinking lol. Be out out in 80 degree weather, watch the sun set on the mountains, and oh yeah there's this thing called a baseball game going on too. Easy to get to and plenty to do both before and after a game. It's actually something that's really funny to me, getting on here and seeing people (rightfully) complain about attendance - the hard core Rockies fans here actually get upset because the great attendance means ownership doesn't see a need to change anything about how incompetent the team is ran (and ownership being blind to their own incompetency). Why bother having a good team when you're still getting 40k butts in the seats losing 100 games?

I have no input on what they could do to the stadium/area better - and there's a very clear difference between the summer in Miami and the summer in Denver and what things there are to do. But it is crazy to experience the difference between the two teams/stadiums/area when the two teams have a very similar history, and how one complains about how their bad attendance leads to a bad product and how one complains about how their good attendance leads to a bad product

I'd much rather have an incompetent FO then a cheap ownership group FWIW as the former is easier to fix than the later. What I have never understood about the Rockies strategy is, why aren't they just drafting 4-5 years in a row all SP? Top 4-5 picks every year minimum. They will have to internally develop that as no major FA will ever go there (probably?), so unapologetically just ignore your entire bat system, develop a club controlled staff over the course of half a decade (or more), and then sign Kris Bryant and friends then. If anyone should poach the Marlins front office, it's them to develop pitching and let Coors and dollars take care of the rest.

And if we're doing a pie in the sky scenario of how to fix Marlins park/area, let's add get the metrorail to it - a long standing complaint of Miami Hurricanes fans as to problems with the Orange Bowl. A walking crowd from all along the rail system including the Brickell population center of younger and rich people would be *huge* IMO and drop a brewery right outside the stadium or something else similar so there is at least a place to go afterwards and it becomes more of an event. (Yes I know the land rights to make this happen are not feasible (maybe?), but this would be a real game changer and its so Miami city planning for this to have never happened.)

[Nick]

9 games left, it's all fucking in front of us. 6-3 and I feel like we're in for sure.

[lou]

9 games left, it's all fucking in front of us. 6-3 and I feel like we're in for sure.

They are going to earn it if they do it as they draw Burnes, Woodruff, F. Peralta, Senga, and Keller in 5 of those 9 games, and they just got demolished by 3 of those guys.

[fish16]

i love adames. that would be a great opportunity to get someone for relatively cheap given his production. having a little bit of a down year offensively and a free agent after next year. wouldnt be free obviously, but a really good player for a discount. IDK if i would sign him to that type of contract, but that's a discussion for a different day. He would be an enormous upgrade. Then, i have no fucking clue who, but they absolutely need to get a catcher. Doesnt even have to be a 22 year old long term type guy because C's take a while to develop and we want to win next year, but they need some sort of every day guy who can hit. no defensive first guy, we need a guy who can mash. Then you go sign 2-3 more bullpen arms that are righties and that's a playoff team next year. might even be a playoff team this year without it. But if sandy can stay healthy and the rest of the rotation can take the expected step forward, that's a hell of a team, though they will probably lose Soler.

C- Masher/Fortes
1b- Arraez
2b- Edwards
SS- Adames
3b- Burger
LF- need someone but this is one of the easiest positions to find. At the very least someone to split time with DLC, he cant be the full time starter
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell?

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, with Meyer in the wings and Weathers as depth. Maybe you sign a back end quality innings eater
RP- Puk, Scott, Nardi, Soriano, 2 signings, and filler.

That's a damn good team.

[fish16]

They are going to earn it if they do it as they draw Burnes, Woodruff, F. Peralta, Senga, and Keller in 5 of those 9 games, and they just got demolished by 3 of those guys.

also going to be hard because the brewers play the cubs the last 3 of the year with nothing to play for. Going to be a fun week.

[lou]

also going to be hard because the brewers play the cubs the last 3 of the year with nothing to play for. Going to be a fun week.

I think the Brewers will care as teams don't let their guards down except maybe the last game, and, I'd rather play the Marlins then Cubs IMO if I were the Brewers and I moved on. But yea, I get it.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs playofff odds

Marlins 54.7%
Cubs 32.9%
Reds 24.4%
DBacks 86.4%
Padres 0.7%

[fish16]

diamondbacks have built a nice small cushion, but they also dont have an easy road the last 9 games. 3 against the yankees who have played better recently, and then they end the year with 3 against houston, who will absolutely be playing for something.

[lou]

i love adames. that would be a great opportunity to get someone for relatively cheap given his production. having a little bit of a down year offensively and a free agent after next year. wouldnt be free obviously, but a really good player for a discount. IDK if i would sign him to that type of contract, but that's a discussion for a different day. He would be an enormous upgrade. Then, i have no fucking clue who, but they absolutely need to get a catcher. Doesnt even have to be a 22 year old long term type guy because C's take a while to develop and we want to win next year, but they need some sort of every day guy who can hit. no defensive first guy, we need a guy who can mash. Then you go sign 2-3 more bullpen arms that are righties and that's a playoff team next year. might even be a playoff team this year without it. But if sandy can stay healthy and the rest of the rotation can take the expected step forward, that's a hell of a team, though they will probably lose Soler.

C- Masher/Fortes
1b- Arraez
2b- Edwards
SS- Adames
3b- Burger
LF- need someone but this is one of the easiest positions to find. At the very least someone to split time with DLC, he cant be the full time starter
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell?

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, with Meyer in the wings and Weathers as depth. Maybe you sign a back end quality innings eater
RP- Puk, Scott, Nardi, Soriano, 2 signings, and filler.

That's a damn good team.

Soler can be QO'd and it is going to depress his market ala Joc Pederson this last year. He's too good not to keep and they should do him a solid and just give him a 2/$32-34 deal which he would be forced to take as no one in baseball is offering him that with a QO. I think he is sticking around and is a reward our own.

Frankly, if you add just Adames and don't get a catcher (which would have to be a Rogers base trade to me and likely a second other good piece like Berti or a quality RP to get Miwaukee to sell him before FA), you can use all remaining money on pitching. I am fine with a "cheap, no power" bench and a defensive whatever catcher if this is the ultimate team. Which is frankly just adding Adames, QO'ing Soler, and turning over the bench to Hampson and the kids.

Fortes 10
Bell 20
Arraez 10
Adames 25
Burger 30
DLC 20
Jazz 30
Sanchez 20
Soler 35
B - Catcher, Edwards, Hampson, Amaya/Dane/Burdick/Johnston

Those numbers are reasonable HR projections IMO. They'd be top 10 in power when healthy IMO if not higher as there is some serious room to grow if they got anything out of other catcher/bench. Plus, Adames, Burger, Jazz, Soler, and even Sanchez, and "a hot DLC for 2 months" could all add 5+ to those totals quickly. Bell is in his last major contract year too so maybe a career year is coming to get that last nice 2-3 year contract paycheck. Arraez also has 5 HR in September and I am impatiently waiting for him to get that early-count aggression and take a "poor man's Altuve" power jump and maybe he can hit closer to 20 annually longterm. He should sacrifice some early count bloops for some power shots and this September is EXACTLY the kind of mentality/approach of a hitter I think we want him to grow into. SSS alert, but I see Arraez turning a little corner here into a higher slugging option based on what I am seeing in September. He's never hit 4 HR in a month before let alone 5 (current total), and he has another week here to add another one or more (and he's been hurt so he's missed games). He is doing something and I hope this is a step forward.


Basically here, a complete sell out for Adames with trading WHATEVER + a long term deal (he is unbelievable defensively so he is a super high floor player at SS. Worst case scenario is he is a Trent Grisham, and he's still a 1.6 WAR player this year. And Adames is better with more power so less risk IMO) is a real offensive missing piece to me. I'll go with the "kid" bench as they can get a veteran in July if they need one. I do think Edwards will be fine though, and I have confidence Hampson will hit lefties enough and Amaya will do enough against lefties.


Anyways, or just sign Bellinger, move DLC for a lesser SS, and you can accomplish the same thing. But I'd shoot for Adames and get this entire core locked up for years. Berry and Cappe are such obvious replacements for Bell and Soler longterm it is perfect on paper getting the SS finally.

[lou]

Fangraphs playofff odds

Marlins 54.7%
Cubs 32.9%
Reds 24.4%
DBacks 86.4%
Padres 0.7%

They still have effectively 5 aces to play in those 9 games so I'd take the under percentage wise. That being said, the Marlins might pump out two starts each of Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, and Sandy and Eury getting 1 last game so they are hypothetically in good shape. Hope the bullpen is ready as I imagine Sandy, Cabrera, and Eury may be quick hooks for healthy/wild/innings reasons.

So let's not get swept by the Brewers aces and I hope Arraez is OK.

[fish16]

They still have effectively 5 aces to play in those 9 games so I'd take the under percentage wise. That being said, the Marlins might pump out two starts each of Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, and Sandy and Eury getting 1 last game so they are hypothetically in good shape. Hope the bullpen is ready as I imagine Sandy, Cabrera, and Eury may be quick hooks for healthy/wild/innings reasons.

So let's not get swept by the Brewers aces and I hope Arraez is OK.

i think you're underselling the reason sandy pitched a rehab start yesterday. they are going to get 2 games out of him. Tuesday is when he lines up next, and then sunday. Now, it might leave him to pitch a little later in a wild card round if it gets to that point, but that's something you figure out later. or, in a best case scenario, you've already clinched before the last day of the year, and you can line up sandy on more than full rest to pitch game 1 of a playoff series.

[lou]

i think you're underselling the reason sandy pitched a rehab start yesterday. they are going to get 2 games out of him. Tuesday is when he lines up next, and then sunday. Now, it might leave him to pitch a little later in a wild card round if it gets to that point, but that's something you figure out later. or, in a best case scenario, you've already clinched before the last day of the year, and you can line up sandy on more than full rest to pitch game 1 of a playoff series.

I can understand the grammatically fail on my end, but that is intended to be 2 Sandy appearances. I think he'll be a quick hook in both however (75 under pitches) so he can go on short rest last day of the season if needed and maybe get into a later WC game if possible in the first series. But yea sure, win the next 7 so we can stop caring and get everyone rest for 2 games to really have things set up. Lets do that.

[fish16]

I can understand the grammatically fail on my end, but that is intended to be 2 Sandy appearances. I think he'll be a quick hook in both however (75 under pitches) so he can go on short rest last day of the season if needed and maybe get into a later WC game if possible in the first series. But yea sure, win the next 7 so we can stop caring and get everyone rest for 2 games to really have things set up. Lets do that.

the 2nd start on full rest would be the last day of the season so he would be a full go. He lines up on full rest for both tuesday and then sunday. or you dont need him sunday and let him go on extra rest game 1. Even if he starts sunday, depending on how the wild card round schedule lines up, he could still make a start in game 2 or 3. Wild card round schedule that just came out would be tuesday, wednesday, and thursday, so if he is needed on sunday, the only way he pitches in the wild card round is if we can win at least one game out of the first 2 and then he would theoretically be available on short rest for game 3.

Not sure if he needs a quick hook on any of the days he is on full rest for. He only missed 18 days and he's sandy. I wouldnt want to be skip telling him that he has to be limited to 75 pitches. The only one of them who should have a quick hook is Eury, he looks to be wearing down and even admitted it the other day a little, so i wouldnt be pushing him too hard anymore. He's given us more than enough.

[fish16]

mcintosh, nasim nunez, berry, and mccambley are all going to the AFL.