July 2021 Game Thread

[rmc523]

I think it’s a mistake to completely write off guys based on the year after minor league play didn’t happen at all.

if performance doesn’t improve next year, then obviously there’s reason to get concerned.

[Todd]

Brandon Marsh literally has the same exact BA and OBP through 227 ABs as Mike Trout did through his first 227 ABs.

I am not saying Brandon Marsh is Mike Trout so much as it is beyond absurd to write off a 23 year old after less than 250 ABs.

My gosh you are a fucking moron.

[lou]

I think it’s a mistake to completely write off guys based on the year after minor league play didn’t happen at all.

if performance doesn’t improve next year, then obviously there’s reason to get concerned.

Totally. It may be a game of numbers, but I'll take the bet they get 2 starting outfielders out of Sanchez, Bleday, Burdick, Misner, Scott, Jerar, and De La Cruz. I'm not too worried about Bleday and Burdick yet, and Misner and Scott have taken smaller steps forward. The other two are hopes and prayers, but tools are tools. This is their first year back. Next year will be VERY telling for all of them.

I think Sanchez is a good example here. He was out of this world awesome as a 18, 19, and 20 year old in rookie/A balls. When he got to AA as a 20/21 year old, he became very pedestrian. Then he became down right bad as a 21/22 year old for 2 years in AA/AAA. The industry soured on him big time after 3 down years. We all sort of soured on him thinking he is this all hack prospect who may make it, or may just be a power bench bat with tools that never translates. Before this season, Bleday and Burdick were ranked well ahead of him as prospects, and Sanchez was deemed equal to Misner and Jerar as hitters, and Neidert on the pitching side.

Then, he set the world on fire in AAA and held his own in the bigs this year. Now he's penciled in for two years at a corner OF spot pretty much and is the 3rd-5th most important bat in the organization (Jazz and Anderson, then Lewin and Bleday... not counting Watson until next year)

I don't think any of us will be surprised if Bleday, Burdick, Misner, or Scott starts hitting, or, if they turn into "very old" 25 year olds who can't hit AAA pitching like Harrison and Brinson. We'll see, but giving up on these guys, or a guy like Brandon Marsh, is ridiculous. You give up on Brinson/Harrison/Isan/Sierra after years of opportunities or chances. All of those guys are 2 years away from that minimum.


As for Marsh, I think a trade with LAA makes a lot of sense as they desperately need cheap pitching, have a longterm OF threesome (Trout, Adell, Walsh) and is something like this:

Pablo, Bleier, Bass < -- Marlins can replace Bleier (old, reliever volatility trade right now, Okert is good(?), etc.) and Bass is a salary dump. This sheds $8m+ in salary they can use elsewhere (ideally).

1-Marsh (FV60, CF of future, play now)
2-Jeremiah Jackson (FV40+, 3B, former 2nd Rd pick, all tools boom or bust guy they love. He is around their 10th best prospect, and would be probably 13-18 range for Marlins and top 3B hope in system)
3-D'Shawn Knowles (FV40, toolsy CF, bonus that he is from Bahamas, years away but maybe something develops. Marlins 20-25 prospect range)
4-Orlando Martinez (FV40, low variance potential backup OF, bonus he is Cuban, another De La Cruz/Henry/Jackson type. Almost MLB ready and maybe you get lucky. Outside marlins top 25)

Maybe the Marlins get a better 3rd player, but Marsh is very valuable even if Pablo is too. I think you'd focus on Marsh/Jackson for Pablo, and dumping Bass on them, and everything else is basically a throw in both ways.

[lou]

Brandon Marsh literally has the same exact BA and OBP through 227 ABs as Mike Trout did through his first 227 ABs.

I am not saying Brandon Marsh is Mike Trout so much as it is beyond absurd to write off a 23 year old after less than 250 ABs.

My gosh you are a fucking moron.

It's important to note Marsh is pacing as a 2.4 WAR player per 600 PA through his first 250 PA. Yes that BABIP is LOL .413, but I'd take the bet there is something here when it normalizes and he settles in.

He's perfect for the Marlins if it's a reasonable trade. The Angels turned down Meyer for him, so who is dumb the Marlins, Angels, or both?

[Erick]

Raisel Iglesias did a podcast recently where he said he’s willing to take a $10 million discount to play for the Marlins.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gi4U8r804gk