July 2021 Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

Trade talk. Daulton Varsho would be an interesting acquisition IMO, and a big upgrade from what the Marlins have at catcher. Perhaps it would be a good time to sell high on Nicolas for example (Although it would likely require Eder based on Baseball Trade Values). The DBacks are pitching poor.

A Varsho/Ketel Marte deal would be an especially splashy deal for Marlins, with Marte signed for the next three years at avg of $10M. It would cost the Marlins plenty in prospects, but I'd likely be on board. Meyer, Eder, McCambly, Nicolas? I'd do that. You could still find a rotation out of Alcantara, Lopez, Cabrera, Rogers, Hernandez, Thompson, S Sanchez, Neidert, in the short term.

Then sign the other Marte and bat them one and two. At least then we'd have an "Acuna and Albies" of our own to toss at the Braves.

[lou]

agree to disagree. count me out on 10-12 million+ for marte's age 35 and 36 seasons. But again it all depends on how they reallocate that money. If they re-sign sandy and another guy and spend on a free agent who isn't already in his mid 30's, I'm cool with it. I don't pay guys into their mid to late 30's who have proven to be low .800 OPS guys in their prime, let alone what he will be the next 4 years past his prime. I love marte and what he brings to the table and if you're a big market team you give him that, but at that price point and what we would have to pay come those last 2 years given what I expect from a 35-36 year old who has never been more than a low .800s ops guy, no thank you.

With marte, ill give him stupid money for 2 years, maybe a partially guaranteed 3rd year. 4 years? No shot. He is not a superstar.

I'm not sure I am making myself clear.

First financial. Brandon Crawford - who Marte is better than - just signed a 2/$32 extension for ages 35 and 36. Yes, some of that is the Giants rewarding a career player having a great unexpected season, but he'd get something close in free agency as he is still good and it's a tough position to fill (same as Marte). Michael Brantley just signed that same deal 2 years younger than Crawford, and is an exact comp for Marte (albeit, worse positional value, but a lefty so wash sort of). Both have injury concerns. If you believe Marte at $11m is a bad deal over these season, that's not what the market says.

The hypothetical you are presenting is Marte would take 4/$45. Provided that is true, my position is you allocate that $45 any way you want, whether front or back loaded (Marlins should definitely front load a deal and keep 24 and especially 25 clean as possible.), as that dollar figure for this player is INCREDIBLE value because Marte is worth well more than $45m for 3 years, let alone 4 years. This is based on other above average starters in their mid 30s getting similar deals. Marte's floor is probably 3/$45 given these comps, including that there are no other CF in free agency making him even more valuable (plenty of 2B/SS this cycle as well as corner players). Hence, why his agent wants a 4th year. They can maybe leverage that.

Second, this notion he isn't a superstar isn't supported by the numbers. Since the start of 2020, Marte is 11th - 11th(!) - in hitter WAR. Whose in front? Tatis, Ramirez, Trea, Freeman, Acuna, Bogaerts, Mookie, Soto, Semien, Machado. Pretty good group of multiple likely hall of famers there. Behind him, Lowe, Harper, Vlad, Cronenworth, T. Anderson, Adames, Mullins, Olson, Devers, Chris Taylor,* Muncy, Realmuto, Winker. Another excellent group. I agree he may be over achieving a little here, but if we go back to the start of 2019, Marte is 25th in hitter WAR. Start of 2018? 27th. Start of 2017? 42nd. Very consistent.

Any way we slice this, Marte has been an all-star level player for years, looks great so there is a good expectation he holds up a few more years, and is probably the 2nd best hitter on a real contending team for the next year or two, and then a very useful piece thereafter. He's as close as a star as you can get in free agency as these guys don't come available too often.

Now, he's getting older so if we want to project a downturn that is OK and I agree we should not expect him to be the "25th" best hitter over the next 3-4 years, but that's why he's probably in the $15-18m over 3-4 year range as a floor, versus getting a 6/$150 deal like Springer who was 2 years younger when he signed with Toronto. Marte is not going to fall apart. He's going to be good.

Which bring us back to the point - 4/$45 is just bananas and the core number here is $45 not 4. 4 is irrelevant when the dollars overall make sense, and as stated that total dollar amount for "3" is an epic great deal win. I feel as Marlins faithful, we are so budget conscious because they have been ridiculous with deals that we don't see what the rest of the league is doing. If the Marlins turned that down, they are clowns because this player is worth far far far more than this and they could have apportioned that money in creative ways to not impact any future deals. i.e., front loading a lot of it (we all agree there I presume). This is not a heavy money commitment at all, and something within their budget constrains.

If they turned down Marte for 3-4 years at $45, they are clowns. It's that simple. This is why I can't imagine this being true because that is such an epic team friendly deal, there is no way a team that has to be careful with spending would turn it down. No way in hell.

Further, let's look at the money situation

C - they are going to acquire a young club controlled option, or get a heavy side of a platoon guy that is cheap to hit righties while Jackson hits lefties. Then, figure out if Fortes, Henry, and Banfield turn into anything. Basically, a heavy financial investment is not coming for 3-4 years as by then, they'll likely be waiting on Mack or a new catcher drafted in 2022 draft

1B/DH - Aguilar is moderately expensive-ish for 2022, but that's coming off the books. Cooper doesn't make a lot and while also be jettisoned within 1-2 years. Corner bat players on 1 year deals are going to be cheap in free agency. And they have Lewin, Conine, and Encarnacion coming (as well as surplus outfielders). A heavy financial investment is not coming here for 3-4 years

2B/SS - This is TBD, but it is 50% cheap for 2 years before Jazz hits arbitration, and they will likely be working in guys like Devers, Isan, Nunez, etc. Rojas makes a little next. year but nothing major. This may scale up radically by 2024 when Jazz hits arbitration and if another FA is signed versus acquiring a young option. This is TBD, but maybe a large financial investment depending on what they do. The footnote here is, maybe a pitcher is traded for a club controlled option, and then this is going to pretty cheap until 2025 when Jazz hits 2nd arbitration and presumably someone new hits 1st arbitration. Maybe some buyouts happen before then too, so this isn't that big of a deal.

3B - This will be a medium financial investment next 3-4 years. Anderson is going to be like 2/$10-13 in arbitration, and then a free agent. Internal options aren't coming. They should probably extend him this offseason to something like 4/$28-32 with a 5th year team option. This doesn't break the bank, will get them a solid option for years, but it is some real money when accounting for payroll moving forward. Bench options are probably Rojas/Duvall/Aguilar level free agents, so the backups are going to cost a little here too I think. Medium financial.

Corner OF - I am going to guess (no order), Brinson, Sanchez, Bleday, De La Cruz, Burdick, and Misner get the lion's share of work in the corners next 3-4 years. This is going to be mostly club controlled, or super cheap initial arbitration years. A heavy financial investment is not coming for years.

CF - They need a longterm option. Could be cheap with a "Pablo" level trade, or they sign someone. Same as the guy opposite Jazz.

SP - This will be cheap in 2022 as first year arb for Sandy, Pablo, and Hernandez is not going to be brutal, but it'll tick up in 23 a little with all of them hitting 2nd year, and in 24 it's going to be crazy with Rogers, Sixto, and Luzardo getting there and those other guys in their last control year. A trade is very likely of 1-2 of them as they get pricier, as they should be able to work in CC options (Cabrera, Meyer, Eder, Thompson, Poteet, etc.). This is going to be like 3B - medium expensive moving forward based on buy outs or taking guys to the end of arbitration. Big picture, a Sandy 5 year buy out would be smart right now, moving Pablo and Hernandez in the next 2 years will deflect a lot of payroll and get things younger with bats which is helpful, and optimistically Sixto or Rogers really kill it next year and we start thinking about a 2nd long term buyout to help costs. I think they are in great shape here absent a bunch of TJ surgeries but we can't anticipate that.

Bullpen - This is going to be cheap when SP are moved here, or constant cheap Floro/Bass/Bender acquisitions. A heavy financial investment is not coming for 3-4 years and they have arm talent to build this. Need a few lefties though.


So to summarize this - everything is cheap or relatively cheap and worth the price (3B, SP), and a pitcher trade likely sets up another cheap scenario opposite Jazz or CF longterm. This is why I say they can afford a Bryant/Correa as the books look great. But, if they aren't going to do something awesome like that, squabbling about $5-10m bucks for someone like Marte over the course of 3-4 years, or rolling your eyes about securing a better player now to have something relatively meaningless on the books in 2025, is flat out silly. That is irrelevant money to this team short and long term based on what they have in the pipes (even more so with a front loaded deal) - and especially after the naming rights were finally sold and new TV deal. That deal prevents them from no other move they want to make.


*Doing this exercise, they should sign this guy too as well as Marte in the offseason, and still trade Pablo and Hernandez for bats. Maybe not this offseason, but after 2022 for sure. Buy out Sandy and Anderson this offseason also. Sandy for 5 and Anderson 4 + an option or two. Get a catcher that can hit righties a little, and a lot of cheap lefty aquistions, and call it an offseason

[lou]

Trade talk. Daulton Varsho would be an interesting acquisition IMO, and a big upgrade from what the Marlins have at catcher. Perhaps it would be a good time to sell high on Nicolas for example. The DBacks are pitching poor.

A Varsho/Ketel Marte deal would be an especially splashy deal for Marlins, with Marte signed for the next three years at avg of $10M. It would cost the Marlins plenty in prospects, but I'd likely be on board. Meyer, Eder and Nicolas? I'd do that.

You give them the moon for Ketel (3/$30 22-24) and Varsho. It'll be more than Meyer, Eder, and Nicolas, for sure, but you can likely live without Bleday/Wilson (gonna have to be another massive piece for Ketel) in this scenario, and can juice it further with some top prospect buy lows (Isan, Harrison, Scott, Misner) which are good gambles for them as a nominal throw in. Do that, sign Marte back, and you're in business for sure. Love this idea.

[Lee Stone]

additional prospects from among Bleday, Burdick, Misner, etc.? Sure.

[Namaste]

Marte has a combined 12.4 WAR over the last 4 seasons (one of them being a 60 game season) and this season isn’t over yet.

He’s a star.

And reading the last 2 pages is really depressing because he really should be on the Marlins. My patience is wearing very thin with this team. Season ticket renewals (to qualify for early incentives) is like 2 weeks away and I’m not sure what to do.

I also liked how fish16 shifted from “he’s not a star” to “he’s not a superstar” as the discussion got further along.

[lou]

additional prospects from among Bleday, Burdick, Misner, etc.? Sure.

Arizona is a total tear down right now so I can't imagine they want a Pablo/Sandy as a centerpiece (which would be appropriate to me in other circumstances). They need 5+ years of control. They'd probably love to have Jazz back, but that has to be a no as the Marlins need him.

So you're looking at, at least for me six guys to start the conversation - two of Meyer, Bleday, and Wilson, MAYBE Cabrera and Sixto if they believe in their health. Others like Rogers and Jazz would certainly be in play here if the Marlins get crazy. Then, it's probably one of the next tier - guys like Eder, Eury, Fulton, maybe Salas, Sanchez, Lewin, etc. Then probably two more good fliers for them - McCambley, Nicolas, Isan, Devers, Harrison, Misner, Scott, Morisette, etc. And then, probably one of the whatever catchers the Marlins have just so they have more upper level options as trading catchers is always tough (Banfield, Henry, etc.)

Off the top of my head, it's something like (1) Meyer, (2) Bleday/Wilson, (3) Eder/Fulton, (e) Nicolas/McCambley, (5) Isan/Harrison/Scott, and (6) Banfield/Henry, for Ketel and Varsho, and maybe they chip in nominal minor leaguers that doesn't move the needle. Or the Marlins agree to take on all/some of David Peralta's salary for 2022 which may be an acceptable absorb to get it done (especially if they'll take like Bass back or whatever to also offset it. I think we can all live without Bass even if he's pretty solid).

It would be a big price trading arguably their best pitching and hitting prospect, as well as two more very projectable arms, with depth pieces, but Ketel is amazing and cheap. It's basically doing the exact deal the Brewers did for Yelich - two elite prospects, another fringe top 100 guy, and some depth pieces. The 2nd and 4th guy in this hypo above are better than Harrison and Yamamoto, and that accounts for Ketel being an infielder and also getting Varsho, etc.

I'd do it. They have the depth to take a swing for the fence, and more importantly FUCKING PAYROLL to sign depth around what you're moving where they shouldn't feel this too much compared to getting Ketel and Varsho.

Home run idea Lee. Hopefully Arizona wants to trade as it'll be hard to top those top two the Marlins can deal.

[lou]

Marte has a combined 12.4 WAR over the last 4 seasons (one of them being a 60 game season) and this season isn’t over yet.

He’s a star.

And reading the last 2 pages is really depressing because he really should be on the Marlins. My patience is wearing very thin with this team. Season ticket renewals (to qualify for early incentives) is like 2 weeks away and I’m not sure what to do.

I also liked how fish16 shifted from “he’s not a star” to “he’s not a superstar” as the discussion got further along.

Hard to argue with a top 25 overall bat last 4 years, and right now is maybe the best one.

I don't know what the incentives are for, but I'd wait and see if they spend money this offseason and/or see if they can conjur up some Ketel level trade like Lee floated. It's a minimum 1500 improved PA for me, half of that better be "vastly improved," or they just don't give a shit. They have everything they need to be a contender in house, including payroll and prospects to fill gaps at the major league level without forsaking the future. It's now or never for them. They will never have a situation of 7-8 young high upside SP all in arb 1 or lower.

Also, I don't think you need to worry about inventory and if you renew later, tell them I want the early incentive deal or nothing and I bet you are given something. You're a unicorn season ticket holder for them. Cracker jacks and tickets to the college bowl game or no deal.

[lou]

Also, I think it's important to note Marte is so fucking great at baseball, he has performed at this level with his wife fucking dying. He's had a worse mental break than all of us this last year, absent others who have lost someone that close.

That dude is a gem of a talent for him to be playing like this.

[Nick]

lou, I assume every time you bring up Wilson, you're talking about Khalil Watson, right?

The good news is, like lou has brought up, it's clear what the Front Office needs to do with this offseason. At least 3 spots in the every day lineup need to be filled by incoming players and they either need to be upper echelon major league players or Top 100 prospects that are ready to contribute right now. Money needs to spent and pitching capital needs to be utilized in trades. Either way it'll be very clear to Marlins fans whether the 2022 Marlins are worth following or if this new Ownership is just more of the same and content to just rake in the dough by putting the cheapest possible team on the field.

[lou]

lou, I assume every time you bring up Wilson, you're talking about Khalil Watson, right?

The good news is, like lou has brought up, it's clear what the Front Office needs to do with this offseason. At least 3 spots in the every day lineup need to be filled by incoming players and they either need to be upper echelon major league players or Top 100 prospects that are ready to contribute right now. Money needs to spent and pitching capital needs to be utilized in trades. Either way it'll be very clear to Marlins fans whether the 2022 Marlins are worth following or if this new Ownership is just more of the same and content to just rake in the dough by putting the cheapest possible team on the field.

Yes I am braindead still. My bad.

And that is a very concise paragraph of what needs to happen or we all become Florida Panther fans and root for a better underdog franchise.

[rmc523]

lou, I assume every time you bring up Wilson, you're talking about Khalil Watson, right?

The good news is, like lou has brought up, it's clear what the Front Office needs to do with this offseason. At least 3 spots in the every day lineup need to be filled by incoming players and they either need to be upper echelon major league players or Top 100 prospects that are ready to contribute right now. Money needs to spent and pitching capital needs to be utilized in trades. Either way it'll be very clear to Marlins fans whether the 2022 Marlins are worth following or if this new Ownership is just more of the same and content to just rake in the dough by putting the cheapest possible team on the field.

Yup, this is the make or break offseason - no more excuses. I hope they realize even the die hards are wavering without glaring holes being filled.

[lou]

Two things:

Article about Sandy extension - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...extension.html. I generally disagree with the premise here that the Marlins need 3-4 free agent years and Sandy should be happy to be a free agent at 32 (way too team friendly there). This is probably like a guaranteed 5/$50-55 deal. He's a free agent at 31. Sign me up - and front load it as a signing incentive to Sandy which also helps future Marlins contending payroll situations and/or Sandy's trade value being cheaper. This is an easy one to get done unless Sandy wants to go year to year for 3 and hope he is healthy for the big payday.

MLB considering a minimum salary of $100m and lowering luxury threshold to $180m - https://theathletic.com/2777830/2021...shared_article. Basically, Marlins are going to need to spend A LOT of money to get to a future salary floor. This could happen within a year (theoretically). This becomes a situation where they are going to have to sign Correa/Bryant, as well as a S. Marte/C.Taylor/trade for K. Marte, as they are going to struggle to get there absent two mega deals.

Also interesting regarding the later - MLBTR says Padres were looking to dump Hosmer's salary in a Gallo deal before he got traded elsewhere (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...-to-mlbpa.html). This is the kind of thing that can get a team to the salary floor if it happens. This has been mentioned before here so glad to see the Padres are thinking creatively too. Big picture, Marlins can short term use their space as a weapon to potentially absorb something terrible like Hosmer and get guys. They should do this regardless of a salary floor.

We'll see. But I am all-in on a Sandy buy out (and 90% sure they should also do this with Anderson, but he's closer to 4 years, $30+m + a 5th year option), and the Marlins SPENDING some money.

[lou]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starling...-never-before/

TLDR - he's good

[Madman81]

neidert starting tonight. *stays home*

[Lee Stone]

Personally, I start Jazz over Isan against a pitcher who throws 98. Diaz, with four whiffs, didn't have a chance.