July 2021 Game Thread

[lou]

What do we think Corey Seager gets in free agency? A Jazz-Seager up the middle with Rojas playing a lot against lefties and filling in for injuries would be pretty sweet. Would something like 5 years/ $100 million get it done?

Probably not. Preseason Jim Bowden thought this:

Corey Seager: 10 years, $355 million

Trevor Story: 10 years, $327 million

Carlos Correa: 8 years, $184 million


I think he is going to be really really wrong, with Seager's injury history, Story outside Coors worries (.674 OPS this year), and Correa is an eye of the beholder one. I believe in him, but injuries may eliminate an escalated bidding war for him if someone believes in the prime year upside.

I think Correa is going to get $250-300m, and Seager and Story closer to that 8/$184 number. I wouldn't want Story under any circumstance, Seager I am open too for sure.

[Nick]

Probably not. Preseason Jim Bowden thought this:

Corey Seager: 10 years, $355 million

Trevor Story: 10 years, $327 million

Carlos Correa: 8 years, $184 million


I think he is going to be really really wrong, with Seager's injury history, Story outside Coors worries (.674 OPS this year), and Correa is an eye of the beholder one. I believe in him, but injuries may eliminate an escalated bidding war for him if someone believes in the prime year upside.

I think Correa is going to get $250-300m, and Seager and Story closer to that 8/$184 number. I wouldn't want Story under any circumstance, Seager I am open too for sure.

LMAO at those numbers.

[fish16]

those numbers are absurd. no shot any of those guys get over 300 mill. id be doubtful for 250+

[Nick]

What do we think about Brandon Crawford on a two-year contract?

[lou]

those numbers are absurd. no shot any of those guys get over 300 mill. id be doubtful for 250+

Correa is easily going to clear that. He turned down 5/$125m in the offseason, and Houston press wants them to offer him 8/$260 prior to free agency and hope that's enough for avoid him exploring getting Lindor/Tatis money. Career 4.7 WAR per 600 PA (sample size over 3,000 PA) and he's not 27. He's on pace for his best statistical year yet (5.5+ WAR). You're signing his prime.

I think Correa is going to get $300 over 10-12 years. The other scenario I see is something wacky like 3/$110-115 and he looks to max out for 3 before getting a second big contract crack. Kind of like a Bauer situation.

Remember, this is going to be around $40 million.

_________, Jackson
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz, Berti
________, Rojas
Anderson
Sanchez
_________, Brinson
Cooper

Sandy/Pablo, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, Luzardo
Bass, Floro, Bender, Thompson, Holloway/Neidert/Poteet
Bleier, _____, Garrett

If we're assuming Pablo/Sandy gets one of C or CF (club controlled), the other is cheap ($5-7) 1 year vet (cough Tucker Barnhart), and the bullpen lefty is a club controlled acquisition, this in't breaking $50 million.

They can afford a $30+ million player and run a bottom 7 payroll maybe under $80 million.

In 2023, $20+ million of that is coming off the books (Aguilar, Berti, Rojas, Cooper, Bass, Bleier), arbitration raises are only going to add another $10m or so, and replacing those guys should be pretty easy internally at club controlled prices (Bleday, Burdick, hopefully they get Isan or Devers be a backup, add in Meyer, Eder, etc.). They'll likely have $10m to spend on 2 guys to fill a hole or two. So they can afford a $30+ million player again and still be super low. $80m payroll. That is nothing.

In 2024, it'll get more interesting as it'll be the first big arbitration year for more many (Jazz, Rogers, Sixto, secondary relievers), and some guys will also be in arbitration (Sandy/Pablo, Anderson, Brinson). It'll start scaling up here, but that's what happens when you contend,. This won't tick up too much. It'll be under $90m more than likely.

How far in advance can one plan? Three years at contending at cheap prices is a win for this franchise. Also, this is why they should front load the living hell out of one of these deals. Put an extra $30-40m on the first 3 years of a deal, and get a cheaper next few years. That's what a smart franchise would do. Weaponize this payroll space.

In any event, it's time to stop fucking around. Correa, or Seager, or someone else similar is a great first step. They can afford it, and they really just need "1" guy to be the franchise bat around everyone else.

[lou]

What do we think about Brandon Crawford on a two-year contract?

Keep Rojas, he's solid. Sign a superstar 2B/SS or play Rojas every day.

[fish16]

good luck to the team giving correa that much. he hasnt exactly been a superstar. that's the type of contract a big market can say fuck it and afford but i wouldnt touch that for the marlins.

[Nick]

Keep Rojas, he's solid. Sign a superstar 2B/SS or play Rojas every day.

You would keep Rojas around in my scenario. Brandon Crawford has a .904 OPS this year in 325 ABs. 63 points higher than Carlos Correa's. Now this year pretty much came out of nowhere, so how much can you trust it? And he's getting older, but may be an alternative to signing somebody to a mega deal like Correa, and then maybe be able to pick up another big bat to go along with him, instead of just Correa.

[Nick]

Not a chance I sign Correa for $300 million if I'm the Marlins.

[lou]

You would keep Rojas around in my scenario. Brandon Crawford has a .904 OPS this year in 325 ABs. 63 points higher than Carlos Correa's. Now this year pretty much came out of nowhere, so how much can you trust it? And he's getting older, but may be an alternative to signing somebody to a mega deal like Correa, and then maybe be able to pick up another big bat to go along with him, instead of just Correa.

Correa is a vastly vastly superior player to Crawford, and I'll leave it at that.

I think they need a splash and they can afford it. I do not agree they should forever be operating as a bottom 5 payroll team and it's time to win after so many years of clearing the books. They should really keep both of Pablo/Sandy, sign Correa/Seager, trade for someone like T. Barnahrt, AND sign S. Marte and still be well well under median payroll. That's probably a $125m team. Look at payrolls around baseball, that's nothing anymore.

If they don't go for someone big like Correa, they should do Marte on a 3 year deal, Chris Taylor on a 4 year deal, and keep Pablo/Sandy and don't trade for a longterm young stud. I like that team on paper and they can deal with issues at the deadline.

[Nick]

Correa is a vastly vastly superior player to Crawford, and I'll leave it at that.

I think they need a splash and they can afford it. I do not agree they should forever be operating as a bottom 5 payroll team and it's time to win after so many years of clearing the books. They should really keep both of Pablo/Sandy, sign Correa/Seager, trade for someone like T. Barnahrt, AND sign S. Marte and still be well well under median payroll. That's probably a $125m team. Look at payrolls around baseball, that's nothing anymore.

If they don't go for someone big like Correa, they should do Marte on a 3 year deal, Chris Taylor on a 4 year deal, and keep Pablo/Sandy and don't trade for a longterm young stud. I like that team on paper and they can deal with issues at the deadline.

They have to use some of that pitching capital.

Bring in Kris Bryant 6 years / $120 (24/24/24/16/16/16)
Bring back Starling Marte 3 years / $48
Trade Pablo Lopez and Jake Eder for Luis Campusano, Robert Hassell and Ha-Seong Kim (Have San Diego eat most of his remaining 4 years $28 million)
Sign a legit bullpen arm for $5-6 million

You have a legit team that hopefully you can keep when a ton of money comes off the books in 2025 instead of having a huge contract looming over the payroll.

[fish16]

off topic from the marlins but given that we are playing them this weekend, im still trying to figure out wtf the cubs are doing. I get not re-signing all of those guys but they arent the rays who developed all that talent and then can realistically say they dont have the money to keep them around. I find what the cubs did significantly more egregious than any of our fire sales. at least we legitimately can say we dont have the money to pay guys. How on earth do the cubs not or are the owners just unbelievably cheap.

[lou]

They have to use some of that pitching capital.

Bring in Kris Bryant 6 years / $120 (24/24/24/16/16/16)
Bring back Starling Marte 3 years / $48
Trade Pablo Lopez and Jake Eder for Luis Campusano, Robert Hassell and Ha-Seong Kim (Have San Diego eat most of his remaining 4 years $28 million)
Sign a legit bullpen arm for $5-6 million

You have a legit team that hopefully you can keep when a ton of money comes off the books in 2025 instead of having a huge contract looming over the payroll.

If you can get Bryant and Marte at those prices, by all means. I don't think those prices are remotely close TBH.

I think Bryant will get $200-220m over 7+ years (Rendon got 7/$245 at the same age. He is better but not double the money better. Bryant's versatility plays everywhere). Boras has been waiting for this moment forever with him. It's going to be a $200m deal or extremely close to it.

Marte is the only stud CF in the free agency class I believe. I think it's going to be a $63-78m deal over 3/4 years. Springer signed 6/$150 (2 years younger, better more recent seasons), and Brantley signed a 2/$32 extension (2 years older, and a corner player. Marte is better and should get double this). He's going to fall into the middle of that in years and money. I think he will take a 3 year deal over $20/m a season (mid/high $60s), or maybe go just under $20m to secure a 4th year from someone (which is the key for his agent). If the Marlins were to sign him, it's probably a 4th year health option. Something like 3/$60, with a 4th year team option of $15/$3 buyout (so it is 3/$63 or 4/$75), and the option becomes a player option if he gets 550 PA in 2024/Marlins win WS/All-Star/etc.

For the trade, swap out Eder for another right hander and sounds good. Don't trade lefty arms. They don't have enough as is. I can live without a few righties, as long as it's only "1" of Sandy, Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer that is moved.

I'd get expensive relievers at the deadline if needed. They have a lot of arm fire power, and some of the starters are going to move to the pen. I am perfectly content with Bender, Floro, Bass, Bleier, and a collection of Campbell, Thompson, Garrett, Neidert, Holloway, and opportunistic pickups. You can see Sixto or Cabrera shifting to the pen quickly too if there is another injury flare up, and Meyer/Eder look like starters (let alone Thompson/Poteet/Neidert/Garrett). Plenty of arms.


Big picture, I agree use some pitching capital as getting Luzardo opens up a major arm trade.

Use Pablo/Sandy and get a massive play now guy who can grow with the next wave of 2022 call ups (Bleday, Cabrera, Meyer, Eder, Lewin, etc.). This is likely CF as no one is going to trade them a young stud catcher and free agency has a ton of middle infielders. (San Diego does need that guy, the deadline was the moment to get him if ever). Minnesota has a lot of cool bats and could use pitching, might be a match there.

Use Hernandez and secondary minor arms (Nicolas, Fitterer, etc.) and get a catcher who can hit righties. As I keep mentioning, Tucker Barnhart is perfect to match with Jackson (who crushes lefties historically). Extend Tucker for 2 and have a good catcher floor while you keep looking for a longterm option/pray for Mack. Reds could use Elisier and depth arms. There is a match somewhere here.

Use free agency money and get a superstar middle infielder. There are many. The one exception here could be Bryant (I'm fine with 7/$200ish). Turning Anderson into "Chris Taylor" is an idea I like, as he could start 5 days a week everywhere (1B, 2B, LF, RF, DH) to continually rest everyone and you've injury proofed the entire team. This lets you trade Cooper also to a team wanting a pure DH, which could be a pen arm. They'd still need a longterm 2B/SS opposite Jazz, but Rojas is fine in this scenario for a year and they can track Isan (.252 BABIP this year 12.8% BB rate, there is hope - you know more than everyone he has struggled at every level jump), Devers, and Nunez for a year and see if any of them are turning into low-end starters sooner rather than later. Fuck, maybe Anderson is your 2B in 2023 (honestly) and Jazz shifts to SS. Never thought about that until right now. I'm a big believer in Anderson being able to play everywhere, but I could be wrong here.

Anyways, we'll see. I will keep saying, they have 22 players ready to go for 2022 for around $40 million, and that doesn't include one of Sandy/Pablo and Elisier only who are trade casualties for bats in my mind. They have plenty of money, and we should expect major moves as they can contend adding around 3 more core bat pieces. They have the resources. They have even cheaper options coming behind this soon (Bleday, Meyer, Eder, Burdick, Conine, etc.) so the books are good for years. It's time.

[lou]

off topic from the marlins but given that we are playing them this weekend, im still trying to figure out wtf the cubs are doing. I get not re-signing all of those guys but they arent the rays who developed all that talent and then can realistically say they dont have the money to keep them around. I find what the cubs did significantly more egregious than any of our fire sales. at least we legitimately can say we dont have the money to pay guys. How on earth do the cubs not or are the owners just unbelievably cheap.

Why resign them when you can get a load of prospects - Madrigal is really good and they got a few FV45 guys - and then go nuts in a strong free agent class.

They are going to spend in the offseason, making the Marlins 1998 fire sale still the worst.

[Nick]

Rendon was coming off a 1.000+ OPS year, where he was the best player on the team that won the World Series. Bryant is having a good year, but not even in the same neighborhood. Also, the Rendon deal does not look good right now, which I think hurts Bryant, teams will have that in the back of their heads, Francisco Lindor signs a huge deal, and immediately regresses significantly. I don't think he gets close to $200 million. We'll see.