2019 Spring Training Starts

[lou]

I don't think "disappointment" is the right word. With the amount of talent in the Cardinals system, Ozuna still having two years of control and coming off a near MVP caliber year, and the fact that Sierra is a poor defender who cant hit a lick and Caleb Smith might be a decent stopgap 5th starter, Alcantara almost has to become a bonafide ace if not top end #2 for that trade not to be horrifically bad. If he ends up at the back of the rotation or in the pen, it is arguably one of the worst trades the club has ever made.

There isn't a world where Cabrera won't be the worst. And Yelich is going to challenge that if he keeps doing what he did last year and the Brewers kids do a repeat.

Ozuna probably had $45 million in surplus value at the time of trade (2 years of control, let's give him 4 WAR per year (which was a generous projection based on prior years), value of $64 million, minus expected contract prices around $18-20 million lowering him to a $45+ asset). Let's not confuse him with being even Realmuto. Ozuna is on a different planet than Yelich. It is objectively unreasonable to think Ozuna was going to bring any FV60 prospects with that. (Also note Ozuna underperformed last year, so that $45 million value is in fact, down.)

If Alcantara turns into a solid # 4 SP (let's call it 1.5 WAR average for 5 years), that is worth what Ozuna was last year. If they get a bonafide ace/#2, this quickly turns into maybe the best trade in Marlins history and one of the best overall trades in baseball in recent memory. That doesn't include any real contributions from Sierra or Gallen (who I think you meant besides Smith, but yea, he is a potential 5/middle reliever for sure).

It's just a bit dramatic to say horrifically bad when the value is what it is. We shouldn't overvalue our own players even if we like Ozuna.

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I agree about using him with an opener, and I made that point on Twitter a few weeks back. Trash might have been harsh, but I don’t think he starts with this team next season. We have too many other arms and most of them are better than he is. He’s a back end 4.50 era type.

I think it would be great if they develop the depth to move him this deadline and role with something like:

Alcantara, Neidert, Pablo, pick two Chen/Richards/Smith/Gallen/Yamamoto

Urena at this deadline is probably worth a FV45 and FV40 prospect in a 2-1 unless he really breaks out (I don't see that happening). Call it with the Marlins own players Devers/Guzman and Quijada/Pompey. I'd love to make that trade if they can get the innings elsewhere. That on paper really helps 2021 payroll too, as he's probably "$7 million" his last arbitration year.

With Sixto and presumably a 2021 FA SP coming, it could get interesting fast if even 1 of those above guys turns into a #3.

[Nick]

From the standpoint of the Ozuna trade I agree with you lou, from an organizational standpoint, we need Alcantara to be a 2/3. In my mind he's pretty clearly our 2nd best prospect as of right now. (hard to rate VVM at this point) we have to hit on these high talent/high risk prospects because we have a long way to go to being competitive due to the lack of talent at the big leagues right now.

[fish16]

people really need to stop acting as if ozuna was some star player that we traded away that should have brought us back a top 25 prospect in baseball guy. Im so sick of seeing people retroactively overrate the guy. He's an above average OF who hasnt been able to put together a year where he wasnt a complete liability for one half of the year except for the year before we dealt him. He also only had 2 years of team control and had 0 chance of re-signing here long term.

The deal relies way more than id like on Alcantara even though i feel fairly confident he can get to at least a #3 type starter talent, but to call it one of the worst deals in team history if Alcantara becomes a back end starter or late inning reliever is laughable and is just a complete overrating of Ozuna's ability. This is just spit balling a random number so id have to do more research into where he actually rates among OF's, but is he even a top 30 OF in baseball?

[Nick]

While I agree the 2017 season looks now to be more the exception than the norm. We did trade him coming off a year where he had a .924 OPS, won a gold glove, silver slugger, was top 15 in MVP voting and was an all-star the previous 2 years. You can't just discount that. Also, he's only 28. I think it's doubtful he ever matches 2017 production again, but he's going to have better years than he did in 2018.

[fish16]

While I agree the 2017 season looks now to be more the exception than the norm. We did trade him coming off a year where he had a .924 OPS, won a gold glove, silver slugger, was top 15 in MVP voting and was an all-star the previous 2 years. You can't just discount that. Also, he's only 28. I think it's doubtful he ever matches 2017 production again, but he's going to have better years than he did in 2018.

That's a fair take. Though I think teams understood he was coming off a career year surrounded by stanton, yelich, and JT and for the rest of his career he wasnt close to that kind of production. Still good but not that good and i think teams knew that.

[Namaste]

Ozuna’s WAR will be north of 3 this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a 4 WAR up in 2019.

The wild card is, is his throwing arm shot or did he rehab it.

[Ralph]

Ozuna in second half .299/.351/.506 with a bum shoulder. I think he’s gonna have a huge year. Especially in his walk year.

[tjfla]

Ozuna in second half .299/.351/.506 with a bum shoulder. I think he’s gonna have a huge year. Especially in his walk year.

Reason why we didn't get more for Ozuna,FA after 2 years and Boras was telling teams what it would cost in FA which put off a few teams

Sandy will end up at least a #3,Gallen should be a ML Swingman at worst(Inning eating #5 or Adam Warren like RP),Sierra is an ideal #4 OF(remember still 23 yrs old)

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We actually have tons of pitching depth over next 2 years and thats before guys who were picked LY/injured guys get moved up this year. I hope Denbo gives guys like Carter/Wolf/Vesia/Palacios/Garrett hard assignments to see what they can do

The big issue with our pitching is other than Sixto they are ALL #3 types and lower and others like Guzman/Yamamoto/Rogers/Brigham might be better as RP. Could use some more LHP in the system as well

Sixto/Garrett/Cabrera/Matt Givin could become #1/2

[lou]

Lewis Brinson was our 13th best prospect heading into the 2018 season. That didn’t work out too well, as Brinson limped to a .248 wOBA. The good news is those BABIP skills were actually pretty good, thanks to power and speed, a low IFFB%, and rarely pulling grounders into the shift. This xBABIP was even with a low line drive rate. The Marlins offense stinks, but he’s an excellent post-hype prospect buy.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-babip-surgers/

His BABIP was .257, xBABIP .320.

Even if he doesn't add 60+ average points which is asking for a lot, call it .240/.300/.425+ and if he's playing D and running, that's a potential 2+ WAR center fielder. If he gets to well above average defensive levels (Kepler), he gets to 2.5+ WAR. If he returns to minor league walk rates and/or gets all those BABIP points back, watch out.

End of the day, I'm taking with open arms a 2 WAR average Brinson over the next 5 seasons in a heartbeat.

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Reason why we didn't get more for Ozuna,FA after 2 years and Boras was telling teams what it would cost in FA which put off a few teams

Sandy will end up at least a #3,Gallen should be a ML Swingman at worst(Inning eating #5 or Adam Warren like RP),Sierra is an ideal #4 OF(remember still 23 yrs old)

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We actually have tons of pitching depth over next 2 years and thats before guys who were picked LY/injured guys get moved up this year. I hope Denbo gives guys like Carter/Wolf/Vesia/Palacios/Garrett hard assignments to see what they can do

The big issue with our pitching is other than Sixto they are ALL #3 types and lower and others like Guzman/Yamamoto/Rogers/Brigham might be better as RP. Could use some more LHP in the system as well

Sixto/Garrett/Cabrera/Matt Givin could become #1/2

The rotation is going to be fine as long as Sixto or Alcantara gets into # 2 land. Feel free to replace with any name in the organization but those are the best bets.

Sixto/Alcantara, "2021 Lefty FA - Ray/Paxton", and all of these guys can be 4s - Sixto/Alcantara, Neidert, Stewart/Smith/Anyone

Add a fireballing bullpen of Guzman, Steckenrider, Cabrera, Holloway, and others on top, and that's going to be a really good and cheap longterm staff. If they get a true # 1 Pedro Martinez out of Sixto, and someone else turns into a 3, they are going to be outstanding. A lot of its.

[tjfla]

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-babip-surgers/

His BABIP was .257, xBABIP .320.

Even if he doesn't add 60+ average points which is asking for a lot, call it .240/.300/.425+ and if he's playing D and running, that's a potential 2+ WAR center fielder. If he gets to well above average defensive levels (Kepler), he gets to 2.5+ WAR. If he returns to minor league walk rates and/or gets all those BABIP points back, watch out.

End of the day, I'm taking with open arms a 2 WAR average Brinson over the next 5 seasons in a heartbeat.

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The rotation is going to be fine as long as Sixto or Alcantara gets into # 2 land. Feel free to replace with any name in the organization but those are the best bets.

Sixto/Alcantara, "2021 Lefty FA - Ray/Paxton", and all of these guys can be 4s - Sixto/Alcantara, Neidert, Stewart/Smith/Anyone

Add a fireballing bullpen of Guzman, Steckenrider, Cabrera, Holloway, and others on top, and that's going to be a really good and cheap longterm staff. If they get a true # 1 Pedro Martinez out of Sixto, and someone else turns into a 3, they are going to be outstanding. A lot of its.

Exactly and maybe we get lucky and Stewart/Garrett/Cabrera make a jump in Jupiter

2021
Sixto
FA(Prefer LHP)
Sandy
Neidert
Pablo/Stewart/Richards/Gallen

Quijada
Rogers
Yamamoto
Steck
Holloway
Guzman

Cabrera/Garrett/Stewart/Givin sitting in AAA

One reason I could go for Vaughn OR Witt Jr in draft

2021
C-Alfaro(Banfield 2022/23)
1B-Vaughn
2B-Diaz
SS-FA(Unless Devers jumps)
3B-BA
LF-VV
CF-Harrison
RF-Brinson

U have 40-60 million to spend on a SP/SS and vets IF needed

Very solid young core and if u go for Andrew Vaughn/College SP like Lodolo,Stinson u could add to it in 2021. Will have Top 3 pick in 2020 AND 1st year IFA were NOT committed so we should be players in IFA too

Wouldn't be surprised if we were making trades to get ML players too using some of that younger "SP Depth" like Pablo/Richards/Gallen

Top 3 Pick in 2020 where 6 of Top 10 are SP and 1 C

[Nick]

It's good if we have 100% hit rate on prospects, which doesn't happen.

[tjfla]

It's good if we have 100% hit rate on prospects, which doesn't happen.

Thats where the 40-60 million in FA comes in. Fill in holes

Not about hitting on them all its getting guys who have talent and if they don't u can sign/trade for others. This is why good teams go for BPA in draft/IFA and not we need a power bat so lets draft Josh Naylor 20 spots earlier because he is the best power bat in draft

[lou]

It's good if we have 100% hit rate on prospects, which doesn't happen.

I think they have the arms to pull together a competent Brewers/Tampa staff by 2021 (including signing a major FA SP like Robbie Ray in 2021*), even with a big failure rate. They can have a lot of guys fail, and if even one of the second tier class works out into a # 4 (Smith, Richards, Pablo, Gallen, Yamamoto, etc.), that's really a big development and bridges the gap. I have faith here with the pitching. I see a reasonable floor and a high ceiling.

The bats, they don't have this depth for sure. They must get at least 6 starters out of Anderson, Alfaro, Brinson, Diaz, Monte, VVM, and I guess Riddle/Cooper/Sierra/Miller/Dean/etc., and one, maybe two of them, need to be consistent 3+ WAR guys. That's a tough sell for me right now.

[tjfla]

I think they have the arms to pull together a competent Brewers/Tampa staff by 2021 (including signing a major FA SP like Robbie Ray in 2021*), even with a big failure rate. They can have a lot of guys fail, and if even one of the second tier class works out into a # 4 (Smith, Richards, Pablo, Gallen, Yamamoto, etc.), that's really a big development and bridges the gap. I have faith here with the pitching. I see a reasonable floor and a high ceiling.

The bats, they don't have this depth for sure. They must get at least 6 starters out of Anderson, Alfaro, Brinson, Diaz, Monte, VVM, and I guess Riddle/Cooper/Sierra/Miller/Dean/etc., and one, maybe two of them, need to be consistent 3+ WAR guys. That's a tough sell for me right now.

Thing about the arms is in 2021 they will have Cabrera/Garrett/Stewart/Givin/Guerrero/Roberson and likely 2020 #1 Pick in AA or above so there is a tier even behind them

Bats are another thing. They need to find a few who can move fast. Guys who could make the leap include Devers,Davis Bradshaw,Guaimaro,Encarnacion,Sean Reynolds,Fortes,Thomas Jones,Torres,Nelson,Pompey,Dunand.They have interesting bats just nothing that makes u say he is a ML in 2021 especially when they get to Jupiter and look terrible

Bryson Brigman and Brian Miller are ML players but at UT and 4th OF

[tjfla]

Mish passes along the *rumor* of Garrett Cooper playing in Japan if he doesn't make the Marlins roster.

Can we trade him for IFA $? Does make sense however