2019 Spring Training Starts

[Namaste]

Sweeeeeeeet Lewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

[Nick]

Save some for the season. lol

[fish16]

The hrs are great, but the plate discipline and markedly better abs are the most encouraging part of it all

[lou]

2nd HR of the day for Brinson.

Awesome, off Fedde too. He's not hitting them off of no name camp relievers which is great.

[fish16]

Way too early, but if brinson breaks out I am going to be an insufferable troll to a few people

[fish16]

my incredibly reactionary early spring training take of the day is that i think opinion of the yelich trade is going to go back to somewhere just below where it was when we first made the move before some struggles last year. It obviously looks like a mistake to deal yelich with his contract at this point but the point of the deal was to take 1 great lineup guy and turn him into 3 solid-really good lineup pieces under team control for the foreseeable future. Putting aside how great a player yelich obviously is, but if we are able to get 3 longterm bats plus whatever yamamoto becomes thats not a bad return for what the underlying strategy was for the move (whether you agree with the strategy is another thing entirely)

Diaz to me is as high of a floor guy as we have in the system. He is a guy to me that starting next year we plug him in at 2b for 6 years and dont worry about it. Will never be a star, but i love his game with good lefty pop and a good all around game at the 2b position. Im fairly confident he can turn into a .245-.275 BA guy, 15-20 HR's, 7-10 sb's, and decent defense.

Brinson unquestionably has talent and if he can become what we thought he was going to be coming into the year last year thats obviously a huge long term piece and a huge surprise to many who viewed him as a clear bust with no potential to turn it around after last year. he's not a pure hitter so he will never have a high BA, but i could see him at .255-.275 with 25-35 hr's, 10-15 sb's, and just a really good hitter in the heart of a lineup with something like a mid .800's OPS and good defense.

Monte harrison is the biggest question mark in the deal to me and if he can keep up the improvement since the end of last year in the K rate without sacrificing as much power as he has in a limited sample, he can still K a lot and be an incredibly impact player just because of how athletic he is and how flashy some of his tools are. He struck out at a truly ridiculous level last year and still had nearly 30 sb's and 20 hr's, so there really is just a ton of room for potential if he can take that K rate from astronomical to merely really high.

I really think its a very good possibility that all 3 end up becoming at least decent everyday long term guys under team control for 6 years and the deal doesnt look nearly as bad as so many thought it did after just 1 year.

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And other than Brinson and maybe Sandy, i think the next biggest thing to watch for is what trajectory Anderson improves at. I thought a lot of people overrated his year last year, but i still think he has potential, the question is just what his ceiling is. Future would look significantly better if Brinson breaks out and Anderson takes just a tiny step and develops slightly more power and goes from the 11-15 hr guy he seems like now to something like 18-22 hr's a year. He will never hit 30 in a year, but that slight increase in power could go a very long way given his game and position. I hope we stick him at 3b and stop moving him around given how many OF's we have and how few 3b we have in the system. If anything he should be staying in the IF and developing the versatility to plat at 1b on top of 3b.

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Also, Wei Yin Chen is absolutely horrendous and they better not put him in the rotation for any reason other than all the other young guys getting injured or ineffective early.

[tjfla]

No Travis Jankowski DFA option-he broke his wrist and is out for awhile now

[fauowls44]

Craig Mish

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When asked about the depth of the Marlins starting rotation on @940WINZ President Mike Hill mentioned 5 names : Ureña, Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo and Richards.

6:26 AM - 5 Mar 2019

No Straily is interesting. Chen should not be in the rotation. Perhaps they try him in long relief first, but they really need to just eat the money and move on.

[tjfla]

Craig Mish

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When asked about the depth of the Marlins starting rotation on @940WINZ President Mike Hill mentioned 5 names : Ureña, Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo and Richards.

6:26 AM - 5 Mar 2019

No Straily is interesting. Chen should not be in the rotation. Perhaps they try him in long relief first, but they really need to just eat the money and move on.

Thats the rotation Miami wants. They are still looking to deal Straily for something(Issue still is lots of SP on the market) and we have a LR job open(only pen spot open) so probably would try him before eating cash

They actually have had few bites on Straily but with Keuchel/Shields/Gio/Gallardo all on the market no teams have gotta serious

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LHB who can play CF has just hit the market

Dwight Smith Jr http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2019/ALL

[lou]

my incredibly reactionary early spring training take of the day is that i think opinion of the yelich trade is going to go back to somewhere just below where it was when we first made the move before some struggles last year.

The four of them will need to generate 25-35 WAR to break even over their club controlled years. They are currently at -1.0 given Brinson's season last year.

I appreciate the optimism, but we're at least 15 WAR away from getting out of "nuclear disaster" land into "downright terrible" land. Of course, I will give them the benefit of the doubt for the next 2 years as they are still mostly in the minors.

Interestingly, if we want to get there, I just checked out some 2018 totals, and a general baseline of a 2 WAR baseball player (as the three of them, and 2 WAR, for 5 years, is 30 WAR, etc.) is:

OBP/SLUG

2B - .315/.425, slightly below average defense, slightly above average base runner (ticked defense down for Diaz. This is basically Moncada)
CF - .300/.425, slightly above average defense, slightly above average base runner (and up for the outfielders, this is basically a "worse" Kepler)

There is some variance with LF/RF, but generally

Corner OF - .320/.400, above average defense, slightly above average base runner (has to have the defense, this is basically a more-hit 2018 Alex Gordon)

I'm a bit surprised here at the lack of slugging necessary for a corner OF player, but hey, who knew. The slugging on 2B is higher because you need to be a good defender at that position and Diaz probably isn't that so he needs to walk and slug. That is his profile at least.

If Brinson/Monte become well above average defenders (Kepler, S. Marte), you can kick them up .5-1 WAR. Or awesome defenders (Inciarte, Hamilton, Cain), you can easily tick up 1-1.5+ WAR. Hitting more obviously helps.

So that's a breakeven floor distributing all the WAR needed to the three of them. If they do this, my opinion is basically the Indians groundskeepers in major league where you can say "hey they ain't so bad, but still shitty." This is 3 guys replacing 1's value which is ludicrous. But if they get there, it won't be soul crushing like Cabrera.

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Craig Mish

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@CraigMish
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When asked about the depth of the Marlins starting rotation on @940WINZ President Mike Hill mentioned 5 names : Ureña, Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo and Richards.

6:26 AM - 5 Mar 2019

No Straily is interesting. Chen should not be in the rotation. Perhaps they try him in long relief first, but they really need to just eat the money and move on.

I think you drop Pablo into AAA (he can't throw the innings, they should work him soft April/May and build his workload).

I'm all about throwing Urena, Alcantara (on a 160 IP limit this year, distribute his starts accordingly), and fully letting Richards and Smith rip and throw as many as they can. Keep Straily around to bridge to Pablo/Neidert midseason. It'll be good for everyone.

Love the idea of Chen in bullpen with Conley and Garcia.

Urena, Straily, Ca. Smith, Richards, Alcantara
Romo, Steckenrider, Guerrero, Ferrel, "camp battle", let's call it Brice as he is OOO.
Conley, Chen, Garcia

[fauowls44]

Thats the rotation Miami wants. They are still looking to deal Straily for something(Issue still is lots of SP on the market) and we have a LR job open(only pen spot open) so probably would try him before eating cash

They actually have had few bites on Straily but with Keuchel/Shields/Gio/Gallardo all on the market no teams have gotta serious

- - - - - - - - - -

LHB who can play CF has just hit the market

Dwight Smith Jr http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2019/ALL

I'd think there are/will be better options available in a couple of weeks than Smith Jr. Personally, I'd circle back to CarGo on a cheap 1 year deal.

[lou]

I'd think there are/will be better options available in a couple of weeks than Smith Jr. Personally, I'd circle back to CarGo on a cheap 1 year deal.

For me, it's bringing them all in. Especially CF options. That kid has a walk rate so why not if it's free?

I'm still 100% into signing Cargo for RF. Broken record, DFA Prado and Herrera, bring in two outfielders and one who can play CF and hit lefties as Granderson/Cargo/Walker cannot hit lefties.

[tjfla]

I'd think there are/will be better options available in a couple of weeks than Smith Jr. Personally, I'd circle back to CarGo on a cheap 1 year deal.

Agreed just saying they are starting to hit the market. Better options than Herrera are coming and this is what we have been waiting for

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Sierra and Brian Miller are gonna be in AAA all year and Cooper who knows(Japan? AAA?)

Herrera isnt gonna be here in 2020 so get someone who could be

Remember this year is about finding guys who can play in 2020(Give guys chances who have talent but not shown it)

[lou]

Agreed just saying they are starting to hit the market. Better options than Herrera are coming and this is what we have been waiting for

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Sierra and Brian Miller are gonna be in AAA all year and Cooper who knows(Japan? AAA?)

Herrera isnt gonna be here in 2020 so get someone who could be

Remember this year is about finding guys who can play in 2020(Give guys chances who have talent but not shown it)

The interesting thing with the OF is, they have a short term issue this season of needing help in CF with Brinson. Unless magically Granderson finds a fountain of youth at la carreta.

Longterm, VVM, Brinson, and Monte can all play CF (presumably), so they really just need the best possible player to be the next OF on the roster. That is some nice flexibility where they could go with a stick (Dean, Ramirez, Cooper, O'Brien), speed/defense (Sierra), or quasi-all around guy (Miller, Guerrero). May the best man win. All of those guys should be seeing what's ahead of them and taking some infield ground balls somewhere to try and give them an edge.

[tjfla]

The interesting thing with the OF is, they have a short term issue this season of needing help in CF with Brinson. Unless magically Granderson finds a fountain of youth at la carreta.

Longterm, VVM, Brinson, and Monte can all play CF (presumably), so they really just need the best possible player to be the next OF on the roster. That is some nice flexibility where they could go with a stick (Dean, Ramirez, Cooper, O'Brien), speed/defense (Sierra), or quasi-all around guy (Miller, Guerrero). May the best man win. All of those guys should be seeing what's ahead of them and taking some infield ground balls somewhere to try and give them an edge.

They have been playing Hererra at CF(He is there today)

Yep in 2020 u have

LF-VV/CF-Harrison/RF-Brinson(All can play ANY OF spot)
Sierra/Brian Miller as 4th OF(Can play ANY OF spot)
Dean/Ramirez/Cooper/O'Brien/Guerrero as Corner OF/1B RH Bat if any of them show something