2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

You're way off on this one, Lou. We're talking about two seaons of Realmuto for $15M in exchange for many years of bright young stars. Right now, Realmuto won't get you EITHER one of them. Fortunately, it's not an aimless argument. Realmuto's trade value is about to be determined. As for Brinson and Diaz ... Yikes!

You have no idea what surplus value and position scarcity is so it's not worth even debating this. Realmuto for 2 years at $15 million is INCREDIBLY VALUABLE coupled with he will take an extension with a real team to guarantee himself $80+ million over 5, thus INCREASING, his surplus value to an acquiring team.

BTW, https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...alue-21-to-30/. JT is 24. Yelich by the way, was 22. Of course Fangraphs is just selling ads though right, when they aren't getting poached by the Padres front office.

Lee buddy, no. Just no.

You know what Realmuto is going to bring back if they move him - Brinson or Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto. And I say that based on prospect status at the time of trade (obviously the OF have faded a bit, even if Diaz and Yamamoto were as advertised). Yelich had more years of control so he got both of the guys instead of just 1. That's what Realmuto is worth.

[Lee Stone]

Lee, the point isn't the value of Diaz and Brinson. The point is, there is no reason for the Marlins to trade Brinson and Diaz, and for the NAtionals there is no reason for them to acquire Diaz and Brinson. It makes sense for neither team. That's why the idea is dumb.

I never offered it as an idea. I was poking fun at Brinson and Diaz. It would mostly make no sense for the Nats.

[Nick]

I never offered it as an idea. I was poking fun at Brinson and Diaz. It would mostly make no sense for the Nats.

I'm about as far from sold on Diaz and Brinson as anybody, but still trading them just because, is beyond dumb.

[Lee Stone]

You have no idea what surplus value and position scarcity is so it's not worth even debating this. Realmuto for 2 years at $15 million is INCREDIBLY VALUABLE coupled with he will take an extension with a real team to guarantee himself $80+ million over 5, thus INCREASING, his surplus value to an acquiring team.

BTW, https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018...alue-21-to-30/. JT is 24. Yelich by the way, was 22. Of course Fangraphs is just selling ads though right, when they aren't getting poached by the Padres front office.

Lee buddy, no. Just no.

You know what Realmuto is going to bring back if they move him - Brinson or Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto. And I say that based on prospect status at the time of trade (obviously the OF have faded a bit, even if Diaz and Yamamoto were as advertised). Yelich had more years of control so he got both of the guys instead of just 1. That's what Realmuto is worth.

Unfortunately, only a buyer can determine Realmuto's actual value. A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it ... or in this case, rent it.

[lou]

Unfortunately, only a buyer can determine Realmuto's actual value. A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it ... or in this case, rent it.

It's easy lee. More than Ozuna, less than Yelich. That's where Realmuto is valued.

The only real debate is do you get that out of 3, 4, or 5 guys, i.e. how this started with Arizona. Do you look for a top end prospect to center the deal (everyone's preference I presume), or build out a depth deal and spread the risk among more lesser ceiling guys.

Even if we view the Marlins FO incompetent, Realmuto is so valuable even they can't fuck it up (on paper).

[Lee Stone]

I'm about as far from sold on Diaz and Brinson as anybody, but still trading them just because, is beyond dumb.

Trying to trade players who are not likely to ever contribute to your team is beyond dumb?

[tjfla]

Problem with the Diamondbacks is you're trading for bulk versus a truly elite prospect. We're all looking for them to get young studs besides building out the depth. This team needs young stars at some point. That being said,

1. You have to get Duplantier, he might be real good if he stays healthy. Ideally, he is the second guy in a deal rather than the first. We can be generous and call him a FV55 (FG thinks FV50). 2. Varsho seems like a solid second player and has moved into FV50 territory. 3. Chisholm had a nice batting average, but looks like there are some major K concerns and some think he pushes off SS eventually. Seems like a good solid third player and a solid FV45 type, maybe a little more (FG has FV45+).

That alone only gets you to around $55 million in value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/). Realmuto is worth around $70-80 minimum. More if you value that an acquiring team can extend him. You need two more guys minimum.

4. I would think Andy Yerzy (their second best C prospect) makes sense as he has some upside and double down at that position. The Marlins would be in pretty good shape with Varsho, Banfield, and Yerzy, and really hitting the wire hard for backup types and maybe drafting another one 2/3 round picks next year. 5. Then you're looking for outside their top 20 RP arms you like. Ideally lefties, but who cares at this point. Someone like Jared Miller.

I'd then up the deal and send them over Straily, and ask for 6. Socrates Brito back, who isn't making their team, out of options, and is a perfect flyer type guy the Marlins can try out in the OF as he has performed well in AAA.

Realmuto, Straily
Duplantier, Varsho, Chisholm, Yerzy, Ja. Miller, Brito

A lot harder to do these bulk deals versus getting 3 guys with 1 of them being an elite prospect, but that's how I envision a Diamondbacks deal going.

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Dbacks have Goldschimidt, Avila, and Dyson, for 1 year, and Ray, Peralta, Lamb, Walker, Souza, and Ahmed for 2.

They do need to go for it next 2 years and then recalibrate. Realmuto is a good win now and later (extension) move for them.

Actually heard Marlins and Denbo like Taylor Widener as the SP. Denbo drafted him but he has Yamamoto size and might be a RP so who knows?

But ya a Arizona deal would be bulk rather than elite

Miami-Widener,Chisholm OR Pavin Smith,Varsho,Blaze Alexander,mid level prospect(Leyba/RP) and Brito
Arizona-JT and Straily

[Nick]

Trying to trade players who are not likely to ever contribute to your team is beyond dumb?

You were suggesting trading them for nothing, so yeah that is dumb. Also, Diaz and Brinson despite Brinson's awful season last year and Diaz's lackluster one are still more likely to contribute than 99% of players in our minor league organization right now. You are the most short-sighted evaluator of baseball talent in the world I would say.

[fish16]

Actually heard Marlins and Denbo like Taylor Widener as the SP. Denbo drafted him but he has Yamamoto size and might be a RP so who knows?

But ya a Arizona deal would be bulk rather than elite

Miami-Widener,Chisholm OR Pavin Smith,Varsho,Blaze Alexander,mid level prospect(Leyba/RP) and Brito
Arizona-JT and Straily

I would really hate another depth deal if the best prospect in the deal is at that level. If you want a depth deal go to houston and say we wont take whitley or tucker but start from Alvarez as a centerpiece and do a depth deal from there.

[tjfla]

I would really hate another depth deal if the best prospect in the deal is at that level. If you want a depth deal go to houston and say we wont take whitley or tucker but start from Alvarez as a centerpiece and do a depth deal from there.

Well to be honest the system could use more depth and they need Top End SP/C/1B/SS

I agree I prefer a Alvarez/Corbin Martin/Freudis Nova/Stubbs/Javier for JT deal as well but I could get behind Arizona deal because u get higher level SS(Chisholm) and C(Varsho)

I just wanna hear on Nov 6 that TB and Oakland have talked to us cause if we do a depth deal those are 2 teams that have tons

[lou]

Actually heard Marlins and Denbo like Taylor Widener as the SP. Denbo drafted him but he has Yamamoto size and might be a RP so who knows?

But ya a Arizona deal would be bulk rather than elite

Miami-Widener,Chisholm OR Pavin Smith,Varsho,Blaze Alexander,mid level prospect(Leyba/RP) and Brito
Arizona-JT and Straily

Sure, they also like Alcantara and Guzman as SP so let's keep drafting probable relievers (albeit good ones)?

I mean, this is just screaming last resort to me even if they have a few interesting names. 8-10 teams can easily beat this.

Maybe they'll do that and absorb Prado. Send back Avila to deflect some of that payroll so the Marlins have a catcher that isn't embarrassing.

[tjfla]

Sure, they also like Alcantara and Guzman as SP so let's keep drafting probable relievers (albeit good ones)?

I mean, this is just screaming last resort to me even if they have a few interesting names. 8-10 teams can easily beat this.

Maybe they'll do that and absorb Prado. Send back Avila to deflect some of that payroll so the Marlins have a catcher that isn't embarrassing.

Yes LAD,NYY,Wash,Oak,TB,Atlanta could beat this but none of them have even called. Same with Houston if Houston called offering Tucker then deal is done. Tucker/mid level arm and Stubbs for JT but they havent

Alcantara is a SP. Guzman is NOT. Yamamoto I am still split on-looks like a RP but big year in 2019 and I could see him as a SP

Think them liking Widener has more to do with Duplantier injury history

[lou]

Well to be honest the system could use more depth and they need Top End SP/C/1B/SS

Well that's what I was saying earlier. Use your "5" big assets to get a SP, SP, C, SS, and 1B from - Realmuto player 1 and 2, 2019 # 1 pick, 2019 # 2 Pick, and IFA money.

The depth comes from the extra 2nd rounder, hammering the Rule V and smaller acquisitions like how they got Smith/Cooper, and trading ALL of Castro, Dietrich, Straily, Rojas, Conley, Urena, Garcia, and Wittgren by July 31st (plus any 1 year free agents you likely sign to get you to next August). If you're into arbitration in 2020, you gotta go.

Do that, plus presumably more high picks in 2020, and $30 million in total payroll in 2020 for likely over 20 players on your roster, and now you start looking pretty good.

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Think them liking Widener has more to do with Duplantier injury history

I can buy this and again, it's screaming Arizona is not the ideal trade partner

[Lee Stone]

Well to be honest the system could use more depth and they need Top End SP/C/1B/SS

I agree I prefer a Alvarez/Corbin Martin/Freudis Nova/Stubbs/Javier for JT deal as well but I could get behind Arizona deal because u get higher level SS(Chisholm) and C(Varsho)

I just wanna hear on Nov 6 that TB and Oakland have talked to us cause if we do a depth deal those are 2 teams that have tons

We have heard that the new Marlins regime is dedicated to putting five-tool athletes all over the field. Houston's Alvarez, a two-at-best-tool player, would hardly fall in line with that notably fine philosophy.

[tjfla]

Well that's what I was saying earlier. Use your "5" big assets to get a SP, SP, C, SS, and 1B from - Realmuto player 1 and 2, 2019 # 1 pick, 2019 # 2 Pick, and IFA money.

The depth comes from the extra 2nd rounder, hammering the Rule V and smaller acquisitions like how they got Smith/Cooper, and trading ALL of Castro, Dietrich, Straily, Rojas, Conley, Urena, Garcia, and Wittgren by July 31st (plus any 1 year free agents you likely sign to get you to next August). If you're into arbitration in 2020, you gotta go.

Do that, plus presumably more high picks in 2020, and $30 million in total payroll in 2020 for likely over 20 players on your roster, and now you start looking pretty good.

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I can buy this and again, it's screaming Arizona is not the ideal trade partner

Very true on the depth

Ya not ideal but if the other teams who can beat the offer refuse what do u do? JT's value goes down as soon as the Winter Meetings end. Who knows? I didnt hear Milwaukee in on Yelich so(Lets hope we don't hear Oakland or TB until the last minute)

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We have heard that the new Marlins regime is dedicated to putting five-tool athletes all over the field. Houston's Alvarez, a two-at-best-tool player, would hardly fall in line with that notably fine philosophy.

Also dedicated to finding BPA. Alvarez might be 2 tools but bat and power are best tools to have