2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Lee buddy.

100% of people (excluding you) believe that.

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http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=mia

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mi...pects-updated/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/team...miami-marlins/

There we go! Yamamoto, at age 21-22, pitched 150 innings of A+ ball to the tune of about a 2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP. 13-4 record. Guzman, at age 22, went over 4 on the ERA, 1.54 on the WHIP, and 0-9. I'm proud to stand alone on that one! Note: the Florida State League is more pitcher friendly than the Carolina League, where Yamamoto put in most of his work. Glad to see that fangraphs, BA, and MLB.com all have their speed guns in working order.

[lou]

There we go! Yamamoto, at age 21-22, pitched 150 innings of A+ ball to the tune of about a 2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP. 13-4 record. Guzman, at age 22, went over 4 on the ERA, 1.54 on the WHIP, and 0-9. I'm proud to stand alone on that one! Note: the Florida State League is more pitcher friendly than the Carolina League, where Yamamoto put in most of his work. Glad to see that fangraphs, BA, and MLB.com all have their speed guns in working order.

So to be clear, you think Yamamoto winning 13 games in the minor leagues indicates a level of prospect status?

Also, that you, by viewing some stats on fangraphs and (presumably) watching a couple YouTube videos, are better at scouting than literally the entire baseball community who does this on a professional basis?

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Also, what happened to Ben Meyer this year? Please explain what happened between 2017 and 2018.

[Lee Stone]

So to be clear, you think Yamamoto winning 13 games in the minor leagues indicates a level of prospect status?

Also, that you, by viewing some stats on fangraphs and (presumably) watching a couple YouTube videos, are better at scouting than literally the entire baseball community who does this on a professional basis?

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Also, what happened to Ben Meyer this year? Please explain what happened between 2017 and 2018.

To be clear:

I don't hold Yamamoto's sterling W/L record against him. His peripherals certainly support it. Same goes for Guzman's 0-9. A 1.54 WHIP will do that for a pitcher.

I think that the scouting touts are a bunch of sheep. When they all generate similar lists from such a broad array of players, it's a sign of pure laziness. (Esp. given the fact that they are always so far off!)

You love to bring up Ben Meyer. He had a fabulous go at A+ Jupiter and then the team shot him straight to AAA in 2018. His early results at New Orleans did not warrant a call-up to Miami in my opinion, but the team brass obviously disagreed. I would have started him at Jacksonville. I also had a lot of faith in Dillon Peters. However, after only sixty-some innings at AA, he was called up to the majors in 2017. Obviously, he could have used more development time.

[lou]

To be clear:

I don't hold Yamamoto's sterling W/L record against him. His peripherals certainly support it. Same goes for Guzman's 0-9. A 1.54 WHIP will do that for a pitcher.

I think that the scouting touts are a bunch of sheep. When they all generate similar lists from such a broad array of players, it's a sign of pure laziness. (Esp. given the fact that they are always so far off!)

You love to bring up Ben Meyer. He had a fabulous go at A+ Jupiter and then the team shot him straight to AAA in 2018. His early results at New Orleans did not warrant a call-up to Miami in my opinion, but the team brass obviously disagreed. I would have started him at Jacksonville. I also had a lot of faith in Dillon Peters. However, after only sixty-some innings at AA, he was called up to the majors in 2017. Obviously, he could have used more development time.

Maybe it's because you can learn from Ben Meyer - a top 5 pitching prospect to you in March 2018 where he barely made mentions in the Marlins top 25 prospects everywhere else.

Maybe it's because Meyer can use his control to dominate A ball hitters he is older than, and that same control with a marginal fastball and secondary offerings doesn't play up as much against better hitters who aren't going to be fooled and can punish hanging pitches? Meaning, maybe the stats don't give you the entire picture as how one accrues those stats is important and you should stop being obtuse into thinking you are smarter than literally everyone else who evaluates baseball players? Maybe there is something to be said about a guy having a fastball that can get by MLB hitters and that guy may be a better prospect than someone who is only good because they are great at not walking AA hitters?

And definitely. All of these scouts who do this professionally to make a living are lazy. Totally.

[Lee Stone]

Maybe it's because you can learn from Ben Meyer - a top 5 pitching prospect to you in March 2018 where he barely made mentions in the Marlins top 25 prospects everywhere else.

Maybe it's because Meyer can use his control to dominate A ball hitters he is older than, and that same control with a marginal fastball and secondary offerings doesn't play up as much against better hitters who aren't going to be fooled and can punish hanging pitches? Meaning, maybe the stats don't give you the entire picture as how one accrues those stats is important and you should stop being obtuse into thinking you are smarter than literally everyone else who evaluates baseball players? Maybe there is something to be said about a guy having a fastball that can get by MLB hitters and that guy may be a better prospect than someone who is only good because they are great at not walking AA hitters?

And definitely. All of these scouts who do this professionally to make a living are lazy. Totally.

Don't think for a second that the lists from fangraphs, BA etc are the working lists utilized by ML baseball teams. Those are all web sites dedicated to attracting readers and selling ads. They are lazy in that they gather info from each other. They are not professional scouting services.

What's with the thinking I'm "smarter than literally everyone else"? I know that other contributors are fond of calling those with different opinions things such as clueless, ridiculous, etc, but I am certainly not one of them. I merely convey a fan's opinion and back it up with my own reasoning.

[lou]

Don't think for a second that the lists from fangraphs, BA etc are the working lists utilized by ML baseball teams. Those are all web sites dedicated to attracting readers and selling ads. They are lazy in that they gather info from each other. They are not professional scouting services.

What's with the thinking I'm "smarter than literally everyone else"? I know that other contributors are fond of calling those with different opinions things such as clueless, ridiculous, etc, but I am certainly not one of them. I merely convey a fan's opinion and back it up with my own reasoning.

Because "your reasoning" goes against literally 100% of the scouting community. I mean seriously, hit up some Fangraphs or BA writers on twitter and ask them why Guzman is a better prospect than Yamamoto despite Yamamoto having objectively better stats. You can track them down.

BTW

Keith Law turned down a job with arguably the smartest front office in baseball - https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2012/01/10...-front-office/

Multiple baseball prospectus writers have been hired by teams - https://awfulannouncing.com/2014/yet...-mlb-team.html

Fangraphs writers hired by teams - https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb...eam/ar-BBIdBcv

#SELLTHEADS #FAKENEWS #ALTERNATIVESTATS #LOCKTHEMUP

[tjfla]

Both are going to be RP in the Majors. Guzman as Closer and Yamamoto as Middle RP

I do like Yamamoto more than Guzman myself because I think he COULD be a ML SP and Guzman is going to be ST/CL soon

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Kyle Keller/Chad Smith/Eveld all have solid stats but can't rate them HIGH on a prospect list because 99.99999% RP in Majors

Fact is SP are ranked high and once teams finally put the guy in the pen their stock drops

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As for Kolek. We drafted him because our previous regime/Stan Meek had a hard on for 6'5 225+ 100mph arms. If Denbo was in charge of that draft we wouldn't have taken Kolek/Blake Anderson or Twine

Could have have Nola/Rodon/Trea Turner

[fish16]

Don't think for a second that the lists from fangraphs, BA etc are the working lists utilized by ML baseball teams. Those are all web sites dedicated to attracting readers and selling ads. They are lazy in that they gather info from each other. They are not professional scouting services.

What's with the thinking I'm "smarter than literally everyone else"? I know that other contributors are fond of calling those with different opinions things such as clueless, ridiculous, etc, but I am certainly not one of them. I merely convey a fan's opinion and back it up with my own reasoning.

because you couch your stance under this bullshit "different opinion" nonsense as if we're discussing whether hamburgers taste good or something else subjective. Like I said, this is like you saying the earth is flat and that we shouldnt call you out simply because its your opinion. Its not just your opinion, its proven over a very long time period why the guys you value arent as valuable as prospects as their numbers suggest and its been said to you numerous times that the way evaluate prospects is objectively wrong and stupid/shortsighted. You'd be a great evaluator of guys who can dominate high A ball, but as an evaluator of who has a quality mlb future your arguments are nonsensical.

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Lee Stone would have loved our pitching prospect back in the day elih villanueva and the other guy in that AA rotation with him the year he put up incredible numbers despite clearly being non prospects.

[tjfla]

Lee's Fave pitching prospect

Corey Madden
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2012/ALL

[fish16]

let us not forget about brent keys and that one phenomenal clearly unsustainable season he had.

[lou]

Both are going to be RP in the Majors. Guzman as Closer and Yamamoto as Middle RP

I do like Yamamoto more than Guzman myself because I think he COULD be a ML SP and Guzman is going to be ST/CL soon

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Kyle Keller/Chad Smith/Eveld all have solid stats but can't rate them HIGH on a prospect list because 99.99999% RP in Majors

Fact is SP are ranked high and once teams finally put the guy in the pen their stock drops

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As for Kolek. We drafted him because our previous regime/Stan Meek had a hard on for 6'5 225+ 100mph arms. If Denbo was in charge of that draft we wouldn't have taken Kolek/Blake Anderson or Twine

Could have have Nola/Rodon/Trea Turner

Purely academically, if we're talking an elite top 20-50 overall RP in baseball (1-1.5 WAR guy, basically AJ Minter), you're taking an innings eater 4/5 SP over them as a prospect? I would take the elite RP personally because that seems to me its a larger advantage. Basically, Guzman and Alcantara are above Yamamoto (which I mean, is why they are literally everywhere because you have to account for their upside even as just RP) but you can get Yamamoto over Gallen, Merandy, Eveld, Mills, Brigham, etc. I actually think the MLB pipeline is doing a pretty good job at ordering the top 20 right now (after that its a disaster, but obviously becomes very subjective with fringe guys). You can shuffle the top 6 (VVM, Monte, Sandy, Neidert, Scott, Guzman), next 5 (Cabrera, Banfield, Diaz, Garret, Rogers), and basically the next 9 (Millers, Devers, Johnson, Nelson, Pompey, Yamamoto, Torress, T. Jones, Gallen... although I would kick T. Jones out of that group as WTF is he doing there?) into pretty reasonable 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tiers. Fangraphs is mostly following this, but they like Rogers, Pompey, Miller, Torress, and Brigham a bit more, and Monte, Scott, and Diaz less.

There is still to this day, no reason why they shouldn't have take Rodon.

[Madman81]

lou - i have always appreciated your input. thanks for fighting the good fight here.

[fish16]

Purely academically, if we're talking an elite top 20-50 overall RP in baseball (1-1.5 WAR guy, basically AJ Minter), you're taking an innings eater 4/5 SP over them as a prospect? I would take the elite RP personally because that seems to me its a larger advantage. Basically, Guzman and Alcantara are above Yamamoto (which I mean, is why they are literally everywhere because you have to account for their upside even as just RP) but you can get Yamamoto over Gallen, Merandy, Eveld, Mills, Brigham, etc. I actually think the MLB pipeline is doing a pretty good job at ordering the top 20 right now (after that its a disaster, but obviously becomes very subjective with fringe guys). You can shuffle the top 6 (VVM, Monte, Sandy, Neidert, Scott, Guzman), next 5 (Cabrera, Banfield, Diaz, Garret, Rogers), and basically the next 9 (Millers, Devers, Johnson, Nelson, Pompey, Yamamoto, Torress, T. Jones, Gallen... although I would kick T. Jones out of that group as WTF is he doing there?) into pretty reasonable 1st, 2nd, and 3rd tiers. Fangraphs is mostly following this, but they like Rogers, Pompey, Miller, Torress, and Brigham a bit more, and Monte, Scott, and Diaz less.

There is still to this day, no reason why they shouldn't have take Rodon.

when you can get an 18 year old kid at #2 in the draft who's only ability is to throw a fastball really fast and with no control you gotta pull that trigger.

[tjfla]

Agree about Rodon but the past regime saw him as a RP and then his asking price really put them off.

They actually had Aaron Nola as choice #2

[lou]

lou - i have always appreciated your input. thanks for fighting the good fight here.

Ha thanks man. I'm trying. Lee seems like a good guy and passionate about baseball. I appreciate that. It would be fun if he stuck around as he is definitely a different voice, but we need to get past this "all catchers are replaceable" and other non-sense stuff. I feel like he may have an epiphany moment one of these days and it's going to click. I feel he's always going to like "his guys" a bit more then he should, but he'll get to the point where he understands a grade 70/80 fastball from Guzman is worth a lot more then whatever moderate RP ceiling Meyer could be. I think we'll all take that and run with it.

What we really need is for Alcantara or Guzman to just become an awesome reliever next season and blow Lee's mind as how that happened when AAA catches up to the Yamamotos of the world. Who knows.

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Agree about Rodon but the past regime saw him as a RP and then his asking price really put them off.

They actually had Aaron Nola as choice #2

That draft makes me so sad. I am 100% into drafting college guys in the first round (even if you miss Yelich and Fernandez) just because I feel you have mitigated risk so dramatically. Swing for the fences with Stanton and Realmuto types in 2/3. Of course subject to talent in each draft, but generally there are probably equally ranked college guys available in round 1. Just my preference there. I am very Billy Beane OG moneyball in this regard.

Not talking Rodon is a forever disaster to me just based on the process of how you draft guys (Nola would have been fine as the next best college SP but I still would have been mad it wasn't Rodon at the time. Now I'd obviously be pretty happy). Total failure. Worse then not taking Smoak over Skipworth back in the day.