Tweet
Barry Jackson is trying way too hard.
-
-
Who is going to want to associate their name onto the Marlins Ballpark ? It's one reason it hasn't happened up to now...Now it's even a worse prospect.Originally posted by rmc523 View PostComment
-
I would tend to agree. If anything, they should've lined that up, then traded everyone lol.Originally posted by Maddawg View Post
But my point was, that's the only somewhat realistic part of the plan. Not sure how in the world they can legitimately believe that attendance will go up unless they reduce ticket prices or give them away.Comment
-
To me this looks VERY SHADY ....and now that its come out they (Jeter & Sherman) look like fools. The ticket prices need to be addressed asap.... When a WS participant (the Dodgers) had average ticket prices $13 LOWER than the Marlins in 2017, in a Market not nearly as flush with per average income as LA....I don't know....if they don't get that more in line with what the community can afford, they are going to look like even bigger fools than they do right now.Originally posted by rmc523 View PostComment
-
Is this true? I'm not saying Marlins tickets are cheap and shouldn't be lowered, I just have a hard time believing Dodgers tickets are that cheap.Originally posted by Maddawg View Post
- - - - - - - - - -
I've found a couple sites that back that up, but a couple others that have wildly different numbers.Comment
-
Don't know if that's an average or for the lowest seats, but doesn't Dodger Stadium have bleacher seats still (which usually cost less)?Originally posted by ¿NICK? View PostComment
-
They also have 56,000 seats to sell.
However, I will agree with anyone that says the price points at Marlins Park have been a disaster from the beginning-- especially in a ballpark where it is so easily to move around. When I had a full season ticket package in the outfield I spent 90% of my team sitting behind homeplate for $6 a game.
I doubt ticket prices will change dramatically. I suspect prices will stay flat over the next few years and they will let inflation take care of the work. When/If this team is ever good again is a different conversation.Comment
-
56,000?Originally posted by Party View Post
Oops, you were talking about Dodger Stadium.
---
They've probably just been happy to have people in the place, not caring where they actually sit.Comment
-
I didn't see these until now, here's part 4, titled, "Why potential investor says Jeter plan is badly flawed and will fail":
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...193782179.html
- - - - - - - - - -New Marlins CEO Derek Jeter slashed payroll largely because investors were assured they would not be asked to cover losses. Jeter also cited the fact Miami hasn’t been to the postseason since 2003.
But one investor who was asked to join Jeter’s group and decided against it said Jeter’s plan has a fatal flaw.
He said Jeter made a miscalculation by trading popular players including National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton, angering many of the team’s fans and believing he could nevertheless increase attendance by 4000 per game in 2018 and by an additional 3000 in 2019, as one version of his Project Wolverine business model projects.
“The Derek Jeter plan all along was to crush payroll to reduce expenses and somehow magically have ticket sales go up,” the Northeast-based businessman said. “Can’t happen. This is entertainment. Fans come to see players they identify with, not Triple A players.
“Ticket sales will collapse even more under this plan. Nobody [in his group] really looked at this. It shows lack of business acumen. You will still need to rebuild with top players at some point and they will be more expensive and harder to bring to Miami, especially under this new management team and the reputation” established during cost-cutting.
For Jeter, there was one interesting alternative to immediate payroll slashing: Begin the 2018 with most of the 2017 roster, but make clear to South Florida fans and potential sponsors that attendance and sponsorship revenue needed to rise significantly and immediately for the model to be sustained. Jeter then could have slashed payroll before the July trade deadline if those two key potential revenue sources did not increase by next summer. There’s no indication that he seriously considered this approach.
Another person who spoke to Jeter about joining his group said he couldn’t understand why Jeter would implement an unpopular strategy that would severely damage his ability to increase attendance and sponsorship money.
The team is in good shape financially for 2018 because every team is receiving a one-time payment of $50 million from MLB’s sale of a digital media company to Disney. That’s on top of the $110 million the Marlins expect to receive from baseball for national TV contracts and the Marlins’ sizable revenue sharing handout.
...
And from an on-field standpoint, ESPN analyst Keith Law indicated the longterm outlook looks bleak. “They’ve done poorly in these trades, prioritizing moving money over acquiring talent,” he said. “Even a best-case scenario wouldn’t make them contenders.”
...
A potential investor said the Marlins have four options if revenues fall well below the team’s optimistic projections:
1) Keep payroll below the projected modest numbers for 2019 ($81 million) and 2020 ($85 million).
2) Have owner Bruce Sherman cover losses in coming years, much as Jeffrey Loria did on multiple occasions. Sherman, the group’s control person, has invested $350 million, according to a different document given to MLB and shared with The Miami Herald. That’s by far the biggest share of the group’s 18 investors.
One associate of Sherman said he is surprised, based on Sherman’s investment history, that he would become the top money man for an investment whose success is based on ambitious revenue projections. He said one reason was Sherman’s admiration for Jeter. The Marlins would not make Sherman or anyone else available for comment.
3) Ask the minority partners to cover losses in future years, even though they have been told orally (not in writing) that they wouldn’t be asked to do so, according to one businessman who was approached by Jeter.
4) Hope to convince people to invest in the Marlins to give them more working capital to sustain possible losses. Jeter has been hosting breakfasts to try to find more investors and his group has emailed wealthy businessmen a new document, called “Project Citrus,” that implores them to invest.
The teaser to that document, obtained by FanRag’s Jon Heyman, says “management will be committed to player payroll discipline to preserve and enhance financial flexibility” and “focus on substantially strengthening the farm system over time to assist with player payroll discipline.”
It also cites mistakes by the previous regime as a reason of “lack of faith,” implying that one of those mistakes was former manager Ozzie Guillen’s praise of deceased dictator Fidel Castro. “Sponsors have lost faith in existing management due to missteps in the past,” that document says.
The Marlins are seeking $200 million from new investors, and the Marlins declined to say if they have raised anything since Project Citrus was sent to potential investors in recent weeks.
And Part 5: how it could work.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article193984369.html
Basically, he concludes that we have to hit on everybody (which we concluded), as well as hope that the TV rights deal jumps, as well as a naming rights deal falls into place.So how could this work?
How could this Marlins ownership’s business model, with highly ambitious attendance and revenue targets, produce any better long-term results than the last regime’s approach, which ended with 14 consecutive non playoff seasons, and Jeffrey Loria unable or unwilling to continue to sustain enormous losses?
Derek Jeter’s group declined to make anyone available to discuss why it believes this plan can succeed. Jeter said after a town hall meeting last month that he is very “confident” he will boost revenue but hasn’t said why or how, beyond having more Latin music at games.
While one deep-pocketed investor approached by Jeter said he saw no way Jeter’s plan could work longterm, here’s one scenario where it could:
▪ On the field: Having traded three of the organization’s top five players, the Marlins need to hit big on most of these trades and hope their top pitching prospect, Braxton Garrett, rebounds effectively from Tommy John surgery.
...
The bullpen has several strong young arms, including Kyle Barraclough, under team control through 2021. And some scouts believe Guzman could be a quality closer if he’s shifted to the bullpen.
A lineup for 2020 and beyond is far more difficult to project.
The outfield could have Christian Yelich (under contract through 2022; Marlins are listening to trade offers), speedy outfielder Magneuris Sierra (.292 minor-league hitter who “has tremendous range in center field,” according to Sirius XM host and former Nationals general manager Jim Bowden) and perhaps Derek Dietrich (not eligible for free agency until 2021).
...
Ultimately, though, how good this team can be will hinge on the aforementioned top pitching prospects.
“Since I’ve been with the organization, we’ve added middle infielders that are going to compete for positions,” said Denbo, hired in October as the Marlins’ vice president/scouting and player development. “We’ve also added … eight or nine starting pitcher candidates, which every organization is looking for. We feel good about the quality we got back in these deals.”
The Marlins project a payroll of $85 million in 2020, but jumping to $116 million in 2021, based on ambitious attendance and sponsorship revenue projections, plus the anticipation that the Marlins’ annual local broadcast revenue will jump from $20 million in 2020 to $52 million in 2021 with a new TV deal.
A $116 million payroll would allow the Marlins to sign a couple of quality free agents before that 2021 season, plus afford all of the young talent acquired in these trades, who will still be cheap in 2020 and 2021. The question is whether Jeter’s revenue projections will materialize and allow that sizable payroll jump.
Off the field
Several things need to happen for the numbers to work. It’s difficult to see the team’s ticket revenue jumping from $30 million in 2017 to $37.5 million, $40.6 million and $45.8 million over the next three years, as projected in an August version of Jeter’s Project Wolverine. But this could work if:
▪ 1. Jeter can convince sponsors to invest big dollars, which could happen if the team surprises on the field in the next three years. A lucrative stadium naming rights deal also would help.
▪ 2. If Jeter can persuade Fox to give the Marlins an enormous boost in TV rights before the contract expires after 2020 and a large up-front payment. An investor contacted by Jeter says that up-front payment was something the Jeter group stressed it wanted to achieve.
▪ 3. If efforts to raise another $200 million in working capital prove successful.
Remember, the August Wolverine projects profits of $68 million, $10 million, $15.8 million and $22 million the next four years, so the team can still break even if revenue projections fall short.
So there is a scenario where this model could work, both on the field and off. But the two seem intertwined; on-field success should lead to higher revenue potential.
It begins with the farm system — bolstered by these recent trades — churning out high-end talent ready to contribute by 2020 or 2021— attendance and enthusiasm rising as a result, and Fox Sports Florida (soon to be owned by ESPN) tripling the $18 million or so annual rights fee.
Bowden says the Marlins’ plan could work but will take a while to be successful.
“In my opinion, based on where they are right now, it will take five [to] seven years,” he said. “So 2023-2025 is the most realistic timetable just like the Cubs, Astros, Nationals etc.” when they rebuilt.
Which seems optimistic to me. You know not all of them will pan out.
The TV deal concerns me - so they want an up front payment and to renegotiate the deal early, which will mean they'll get less of a deal than they would (though with cord cutting, maybe they need to get it sooner than later?)? Seems like a Loria-esque move.Comment
-
https://www.fishstripes.com/2018/1/1...oject-sunshine
Haha, this guy started a petition to get rid of the new ownership group, looking for 1-million signatures by opening day. They have 5 since posting on Jan. 6.
Moncaleano’s goals are (in his words):
1) Sabotage the corrupt Project Wolverine by boycotting all Marlins games, and refraining from purchasing merchandise to prevent the group from profiting.
2) Launch Project Sunshine petition to remove Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter from their position as Marlins owners.Comment
-
so he's a marlins fan who wants to sabotage the ownership and make them fail to prevent them from profiting so that the team continues to suck for years upon years. Solid plan there.Originally posted by rmc523 View PostComment
-
-
exactly.....nothing will have changed. Well we exchanged one bad owner for another & MLB facilitated it......I'm now on the contaction bandwagon - get MLB away from us - they have no intentions of ever allowing the Marlins to be successful.Originally posted by ¿NICK? View PostComment
-
John OurandVerified account
@Ourand_SBJ
Follow Follow @Ourand_SBJ
More
Fox is nearing a long-term RSN deal with the Rays: 15-years at an average of around $82M. My story with @dkaplanSBJ. https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/...sidebar-1.aspx …
The Rays getting 4 times what the Marlins currently get per year on a new TV deal is very good news for Jeter's plans.Comment
-
Holy shit thats great news. Also surprising as hell but great news nonetheless.Comment
Comment